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youiswhatyouam

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Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 26, 2018 at 3:46 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 22, 2018 at 2:03 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bluejackets2000</b></div><div>Jackets are like so many other bubble teams. A span of 4-5 games now will make or break the playoff picture.
As for the TB #1 pick, it will most likely be very late in the 1st round, so just about the same value as a Phoenix, Edmonton, or Buffalo 2nd round pick.
Value is in the eye of the beholder, and some teams do get desperate to fill role players as the trade deadline approaches, especially if they have targeted one player for a trade but it falls through to another team.
Johnson is not flashy, does not score a lot of goals, and does not play overly physical, but he is solid, still skates very well, is a team player, is very durable, and has a very high compete level when going after the puck in the corners. Most teams would love to have this attribute in the playoffs. For a 1st round pick, we will find out very soon!!!</div></div>

I agree completely that value is almost always dependent on perception and context. Is the 28th overall pick really much different from the 35th overall pick (I know that someone actually did a study of this a few years ago to determine realistic value by draft pick position but I don't remember who posted it)? When it comes down to it, though, in my opinion the higher pick will always have more value. It's an incredibly obvious statement but I think it's fully true. Is 23 much different than 28? I'm sure there are plenty of examples of teams coveting that slightly higher spot and including a 3rd round pick to make the switch. Maybe that extra 1st round pick becomes part of a package to land a much better player. That extra 1st round pick, late though it may be, could be the extra piece needed to acquire max pacioretty. gabriel carlsson, oliver bjorkstrand and a 1st could be enough, but switch the 1st for a 2nd and it's suddenly unreasonable, even though it might only be 5 spots lower (granted, all bets are off with marc bergevin). so I would argue that the name carries a lot of value, fairly or not.

I think the JJ argument always goes to a fancy stats vs eye test argument. all the fancy stats point to him being a 3rd pair defenseman, while the anti-analytics people always argue for his intangibles (grit, leadership, etc). I tend to agree more with the analytics crowd and have never seen JJ make his teammates better over a larger sample size. more power to jarmo if he can get a top 30 pick for him, but it feels like he should fetch a much lower return. as a fan of another metro team, I hope it's for a bag of pucks because I think that columbus already has a lot of really good young players.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 22, 2018 at 10:02 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 7, 2018 at 4:38 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Newanda</b></div><div>I think Zboril could be a top 4 defense men in the future for the Bruins/Devils. Which would work out get as Greene is 35, and Moore possibly not resigning, it would mean that the only left handed D-men the Devils would have; would be Butcher, Mueller, and Loov. I love Butcher offensively but defensively he is still learning; Mueller and Loov I haven't seen enough at the NHL level. Plus, with the youth movement, I don't want the devils to go out and sign a 30+ year old to fill one of those spots.

Also looked at the Devils trading with Tampa Bay, for Callahan + picks/ prospects, and Dallas, for Spezza + picks/ prospects, to use some of that cap space and flip, or keep, for draft picks.</div></div>

I totally agree with everything you said, I just think that there's more value to the cap space/payroll dump than just Zboril. I think that he was drafted way too high, so maybe the expectations are a little out of whack, but he's already been passed over on the depth chart by Carlo and McAvoy. It's more likely that he is a bottom pairing guy who might figure it out and be a 3-4 guy. The Devils already have mediocre defenders. Maybe bump up the draft pick that comes back and the picks that go back to Boston? Keep the 2nd and bump Boston's pick to a 5th?

I've always looked at Dallas as an opportunity to grab a young d (particularly Honka) as a cap dump. I go back and forth on Yzerman's trade genius because he's really good at fleecing morons but I'd be worried he ends up convincing Shero to give away Severson for Callahan.

Anyway, those are my 2 cents...
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 31, 2018 at 12:28 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 29, 2018 at 1:30 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 29, 2018 at 1:17 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>exo2769</b></div><div>First line centers then top pair dman then 2nd line centers...so 3rd hardest thing to find in the NHL...to me anyway. If NJD actually finds a 2nd line center that's perfect...theyll probably have to give up a lot more than one 1st rounder. I hear ya that anisimov may not be the preferred #2 center, but there really aren't many options available for NJD to trade for. Even pending UFA rentals will be more than the 1st for a #2 center.</div></div>

I totally agree with you on those points. my take on this is that the devils are playing with house money right now and, if they make a move to improve this season, they really need to improve. I just don't see anisimov moving the needle. I don't know enough about murphy to say whether his mediocre nhl production before this season is simply a measure of being on terrible coyotes teams, but some of his underlying numbers and contract are good enough to make an offer. maybe a 2nd round pick and blake speers? keep in mind that moving him does free up cap space for the hawks.

ultimately, I'm not sure the devils have the types of assets to get the kind of players they need that don't also set themselves back somewhat. I still think they are better off missing the playoffs and pointing taylor hall toward the lottery balls and telling him that winning the lottery gets him an $80 million extension. build for next year instead of wasting assets on players that don't make them better.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 18, 2018 at 1:26 a.m.
Thread: John t
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>chiefsb30</b></div><div>Its not a hard pill to swallow. He is good but OEL is a clear upgrade. He is a number 1 defender, full stop. Further, Severson plays the right side where we are stronger. If you look at my roster thats the idea. Greene is no longer a top pairing guy so you need a new guy on the left side up top. Besides... if its 3 steps forward 1 back... thats... still... 2 forward? Thats how any trade of value works, you lose something good to get better. If you meant 1 forward and 2 back as the saying usually goes, its absolutely not.

Whether its enough or not, thats up for debate. I really dont think a team gives them two impact players from their roster and a 1st rounder as is being reported as the ask. The thing that devalues him is that hes under contract for one more year and theyre obligated to make a move somewhat soon. If they can do it before the deadline this year a team gets two playoff runs with him. Not many teams can make that move either in my mind.



This is an option I have heard thrown around by fans as well. I would consider this too. Its the same concept as what I did, though I debate how much better Vatanen really is than Severson. Hes better no doubt, but Severson is younger and on a longer contract which I think presents value.</div></div>

OEL is, without a doubt, a much better defenseman than Severson. In a vacuum, getting OEL for DS is a clear win. However, the Devils need a much better defense than what they currently have. I doubt that both adding OEL and keeping DS is enough to make them real contenders without upgrading a 4th defenseman as well (assuming OEL, DS and Vatanen are the top 3). Moore isn't that guy. Greene isn't that guy anymore. Butcher and/or Butcher might be that guy in the future but are both better suited for the 3rd pair now. Lovejoy was never that guy. So I stand by my assessment that OEL makes the team better on his own, but not as much as if DS is still there, too.

Realistically, I don't think the Coyotes would accept any trade from the Devils that doesn't include Hischier, DS, the 2018 1st and possibly something else (Blackwood?). Of courseif either Marc Bergevin or Peter Chiarelli were the GM of the Coyotes then all bets are off. NJ could get OEL for Jesper Bratt, a case of taylor ham and $100 of scratch off tickets.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 17, 2018 at 5:05 p.m.
Thread: John t