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youiswhatyouam
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Aug. 17, 2017
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New Jersey Devils
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Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 19, 2018 at 9:29 a.m.
Thread:
Duchene and other things
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>kaljakori</b></div><div>1 year left though, lowers his value quite a bit.</div></div>
I agree, but Bastian, Mueller and Appleby aren't very good.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 18, 2018 at 4:05 p.m.
Thread:
Duchene and other things
I'll go the other way and say it's not nearly enough for Duchene. Look back at everything that Colorado landed when they traded him. Bastian, Mueller and Appleby all have low ceilings and it's likely that the draft pick either wouldn't be in the lottery or would fall to 15 or so. Duchene might be a little overvalued right now but that is still a pretty low offer. Mcleod, a 1st and 2 other pieces is probably the starting point. Melnyk is cheap, so taking back money probably helps a lot.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 10, 2018 at 10:41 a.m.
Thread:
Waddell’s trades w/MTL,ANA
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CanesQue</b></div><div>So you’d prefer Silfverberg, barely 2x 20goal scorer > Skinner, 3x 30 goal scorer, Calder Trophy winner, and 2 years younger? Ok, that’s certainly your prerogative.</div></div>
I like skinner but I'm concerned about his injury history and the fact that his actual production won't be worth what he will be paid. I think silfverberg is a decent 2nd line wing and will probably be paid as such, while skinner will end up being paid like a top winger, when he probably isn't. I'd rather have silfverberg at $4.5M/year than skinner at $7M. just my opinion.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 10, 2018 at 10:25 a.m.
Thread:
Cup or Bust
neither moore nor santini are very good. santini is young enough that he should be given a small contract (2 years @ $1M/year) because it's too early to give up on him. moore is what he is at this point and that's not very good. that also seems like a huge over payment for arvidsson.
carlson is also way too low. even if he takes a hometown discount, I'd expect the minimum is $6.5-7M.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 10, 2018 at 10:15 a.m.
Thread:
Waddell’s trades w/MTL,ANA
your trades are interesting because carolina got ripped off by montreal, followed by ripping off anaheim. carolina is going to make some changes but this hurts the defense a lot while not really improving their offense that much. at the end of the day, these trades don't get them to the playoffs next year.
hanifin for 3OA + juulsen + 3rd round pick/another top prospect seems more reasonable.
personally, I'd rather have silfverberg than skinner, but they probably have a much more similar value so adding a 1st round pick is too much in either direction.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 27, 2018 at 9:42 a.m.
Thread:
Tavares with experience on blue line
If Anaheim trades Kesler then it will act as a salary dump, which means another asset has to move with him. For the trade above, the Ducks would need to include Lindholm or Montour to get Severson and two other prospects (even though Zacha has been disappointing).
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 26, 2018 at 3:46 p.m.
Thread:
EK65 Goes
The Devils approve of the Dzingel trade.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 22, 2018 at 2:03 p.m.
Thread:
What Jarmo will actually do
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bluejackets2000</b></div><div>Jackets are like so many other bubble teams. A span of 4-5 games now will make or break the playoff picture.
As for the TB #1 pick, it will most likely be very late in the 1st round, so just about the same value as a Phoenix, Edmonton, or Buffalo 2nd round pick.
Value is in the eye of the beholder, and some teams do get desperate to fill role players as the trade deadline approaches, especially if they have targeted one player for a trade but it falls through to another team.
Johnson is not flashy, does not score a lot of goals, and does not play overly physical, but he is solid, still skates very well, is a team player, is very durable, and has a very high compete level when going after the puck in the corners. Most teams would love to have this attribute in the playoffs. For a 1st round pick, we will find out very soon!!!</div></div>
I agree completely that value is almost always dependent on perception and context. Is the 28th overall pick really much different from the 35th overall pick (I know that someone actually did a study of this a few years ago to determine realistic value by draft pick position but I don't remember who posted it)? When it comes down to it, though, in my opinion the higher pick will always have more value. It's an incredibly obvious statement but I think it's fully true. Is 23 much different than 28? I'm sure there are plenty of examples of teams coveting that slightly higher spot and including a 3rd round pick to make the switch. Maybe that extra 1st round pick becomes part of a package to land a much better player. That extra 1st round pick, late though it may be, could be the extra piece needed to acquire max pacioretty. gabriel carlsson, oliver bjorkstrand and a 1st could be enough, but switch the 1st for a 2nd and it's suddenly unreasonable, even though it might only be 5 spots lower (granted, all bets are off with marc bergevin). so I would argue that the name carries a lot of value, fairly or not.
I think the JJ argument always goes to a fancy stats vs eye test argument. all the fancy stats point to him being a 3rd pair defenseman, while the anti-analytics people always argue for his intangibles (grit, leadership, etc). I tend to agree more with the analytics crowd and have never seen JJ make his teammates better over a larger sample size. more power to jarmo if he can get a top 30 pick for him, but it feels like he should fetch a much lower return. as a fan of another metro team, I hope it's for a bag of pucks because I think that columbus already has a lot of really good young players.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 22, 2018 at 10:02 a.m.
Thread:
What Jarmo will actually do
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jacketsman61</b></div><div>It is believed Jarmo has gotten offers of a first round pick for him.
Jenner is much better than Letestu.</div></div>
Out of curiosity, do Jackets fans consider the team a legit contender? It seems like they are at a place where they aren't true contenders but have enough pieces to get hot in the playoffs and go the Cup finals. If trading Jenner doesn't make them better, why make that trade? Or does he just not really matter that much to the success of the team?
Which team offered him a 1st and who reported it? Again, I would not be surprised in the least if they traded him to the Isles/Habs/Oilers for a 1st because GS/MB/PC are all bad managers. But no competent GM will make that trade, even in the context of trade deadline panic moves. If Jarmo was really offered that much for JJ, he was a fool not to say yes before the question was finished being asked.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 22, 2018 at 12:49 a.m.
Thread:
What Jarmo will actually do
There is no way that Jack Johnson is worth a 1st round pick to anyone, let alone Steve Yzerman. Sorry, Columbus fans, he's just not that good.
But at the same time, Garth Snow, Marc Bergevin and Peter Chiarelli are all due to get fleeced on a trade, so one of them would probably overpay for JJ.
Also, I'm legitimately asking, is Mark Letestu really better than Boone Jenner, or is that more of a change of scenery kind of trade? I don't know enough about either to know the answer.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 7, 2018 at 4:38 p.m.
Thread:
NJD off-season moves
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Newanda</b></div><div>I think Zboril could be a top 4 defense men in the future for the Bruins/Devils. Which would work out get as Greene is 35, and Moore possibly not resigning, it would mean that the only left handed D-men the Devils would have; would be Butcher, Mueller, and Loov. I love Butcher offensively but defensively he is still learning; Mueller and Loov I haven't seen enough at the NHL level. Plus, with the youth movement, I don't want the devils to go out and sign a 30+ year old to fill one of those spots.
Also looked at the Devils trading with Tampa Bay, for Callahan + picks/ prospects, and Dallas, for Spezza + picks/ prospects, to use some of that cap space and flip, or keep, for draft picks.</div></div>
I totally agree with everything you said, I just think that there's more value to the cap space/payroll dump than just Zboril. I think that he was drafted way too high, so maybe the expectations are a little out of whack, but he's already been passed over on the depth chart by Carlo and McAvoy. It's more likely that he is a bottom pairing guy who might figure it out and be a 3-4 guy. The Devils already have mediocre defenders. Maybe bump up the draft pick that comes back and the picks that go back to Boston? Keep the 2nd and bump Boston's pick to a 5th?
I've always looked at Dallas as an opportunity to grab a young d (particularly Honka) as a cap dump. I go back and forth on Yzerman's trade genius because he's really good at fleecing morons but I'd be worried he ends up convincing Shero to give away Severson for Callahan.
Anyway, those are my 2 cents...
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 7, 2018 at 11:05 a.m.
Thread:
NJD off-season moves
So the net result of this is trading a 4th round pick for a not very good ahl-caliber player (Beleskey), a not very good defensive prospect (Zboril) and a 7th round pick? This sounds like a good deal for the Bruins and Caps but doesn't help the Devils in any way. I like your idea of capitalizing off free cap space (and I like your sequence of moving parts) but I don't see this offering any benefit. 2 stars for the effort/process.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 2, 2018 at 2:40 p.m.
Thread:
Making Johnny Happy
Devils say no. I bet they would take Ladd as a salary dump, but his big contract would need more coming back without giving up on Zacha.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 31, 2018 at 12:28 p.m.
Thread:
Upgrading the Devils (CAR, BUF, LAK, CAL, NYI)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Shibbal18</b></div><div>That sabres deal is horrendous, i dont even know why sabres89 is trying to justify it</div></div>
admittedly, that deal is a stretch and I was getting more and more tired as I tried to piece it together, but I do feel there is enough of a defense of it to at least work on it. the core of it is schneider for o'reilly. schneider has a good contract and will perform much better when he has a better defense in front of him. but mostly I look at this, from the sabres' perspective, as whether or not bringing in a top 7 nhl goalie (who happens to be from new england) would make jack eichel happy. he is an upgrade over lehner and locked in at a very fair value rate for the rest of his prime years. so if the core is schneider for ROR, how do we make that trade work?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 30, 2018 at 11:57 p.m.
Thread:
Your thoughts
29 NHL GMs would say no to this deal. Fortunately for the Devils, Marc Bergevin is one of two who would probably say yes, although you might need to switch Speers for Gignac because the latter probably speaks French.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 29, 2018 at 4:32 p.m.
Thread:
Zacha potential trade
there is no possible way that this trade happens. even beyond the fact that the rangers won't trade with the devils, RMD will fetch a lot more than that.
I'm all for trading zacha, though.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 29, 2018 at 1:30 p.m.
Thread:
Playoff push. Trade with CHI?
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>exo2769</b></div><div>First line centers then top pair dman then 2nd line centers...so 3rd hardest thing to find in the NHL...to me anyway. If NJD actually finds a 2nd line center that's perfect...theyll probably have to give up a lot more than one 1st rounder. I hear ya that anisimov may not be the preferred #2 center, but there really aren't many options available for NJD to trade for. Even pending UFA rentals will be more than the 1st for a #2 center.</div></div>
by the way, I would like to point out that the devils would have checked off one of their impossible to find needs had they drafted any of barzal, provorov or werenski in 2015 instead of zacha. that kills me to this day, and likely will for years to come...
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 29, 2018 at 1:17 p.m.
Thread:
Playoff push. Trade with CHI?
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>exo2769</b></div><div>First line centers then top pair dman then 2nd line centers...so 3rd hardest thing to find in the NHL...to me anyway. If NJD actually finds a 2nd line center that's perfect...theyll probably have to give up a lot more than one 1st rounder. I hear ya that anisimov may not be the preferred #2 center, but there really aren't many options available for NJD to trade for. Even pending UFA rentals will be more than the 1st for a #2 center.</div></div>
I totally agree with you on those points. my take on this is that the devils are playing with house money right now and, if they make a move to improve this season, they really need to improve. I just don't see anisimov moving the needle. I don't know enough about murphy to say whether his mediocre nhl production before this season is simply a measure of being on terrible coyotes teams, but some of his underlying numbers and contract are good enough to make an offer. maybe a 2nd round pick and blake speers? keep in mind that moving him does free up cap space for the hawks.
ultimately, I'm not sure the devils have the types of assets to get the kind of players they need that don't also set themselves back somewhat. I still think they are better off missing the playoffs and pointing taylor hall toward the lottery balls and telling him that winning the lottery gets him an $80 million extension. build for next year instead of wasting assets on players that don't make them better.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 29, 2018 at 10:43 a.m.
Thread:
Playoff push. Trade with CHI?
I wouldn't make this trade, but it's not not the worst one I've seen here. the devils need a top 6 center and two top 4 defensemen. murphy looks like he would fit nicely in the top 4, although they need a little more help on the left side. anisimov isn't the top 6 center they need. kempny isn't an improvement on what they have already and they don't need to dump contracts (they have cap space to take bad contracts in exchange for assets). and none of these guys are really worth a 1st round pick.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 23, 2018 at 12:32 p.m.
Thread:
Pacioretty
speaking as a devils fan, pacioretty isn't the answer for them. they need another top 6 center and at two top 4 defensemen. patches would be a nice piece to have but doesn't make this team a legitimate playoff threat.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 18, 2018 at 1:26 a.m.
Thread:
John t
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>chiefsb30</b></div><div>Its not a hard pill to swallow. He is good but OEL is a clear upgrade. He is a number 1 defender, full stop. Further, Severson plays the right side where we are stronger. If you look at my roster thats the idea. Greene is no longer a top pairing guy so you need a new guy on the left side up top. Besides... if its 3 steps forward 1 back... thats... still... 2 forward? Thats how any trade of value works, you lose something good to get better. If you meant 1 forward and 2 back as the saying usually goes, its absolutely not.
Whether its enough or not, thats up for debate. I really dont think a team gives them two impact players from their roster and a 1st rounder as is being reported as the ask. The thing that devalues him is that hes under contract for one more year and theyre obligated to make a move somewhat soon. If they can do it before the deadline this year a team gets two playoff runs with him. Not many teams can make that move either in my mind.
This is an option I have heard thrown around by fans as well. I would consider this too. Its the same concept as what I did, though I debate how much better Vatanen really is than Severson. Hes better no doubt, but Severson is younger and on a longer contract which I think presents value.</div></div>
OEL is, without a doubt, a much better defenseman than Severson. In a vacuum, getting OEL for DS is a clear win. However, the Devils need a much better defense than what they currently have. I doubt that both adding OEL and keeping DS is enough to make them real contenders without upgrading a 4th defenseman as well (assuming OEL, DS and Vatanen are the top 3). Moore isn't that guy. Greene isn't that guy anymore. Butcher and/or Butcher might be that guy in the future but are both better suited for the 3rd pair now. Lovejoy was never that guy. So I stand by my assessment that OEL makes the team better on his own, but not as much as if DS is still there, too.
Realistically, I don't think the Coyotes would accept any trade from the Devils that doesn't include Hischier, DS, the 2018 1st and possibly something else (Blackwood?). Of courseif either Marc Bergevin or Peter Chiarelli were the GM of the Coyotes then all bets are off. NJ could get OEL for Jesper Bratt, a case of taylor ham and $100 of scratch off tickets.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 17, 2018 at 5:05 p.m.
Thread:
John t
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>chiefsb30</b></div><div>Depends entirely on the situation. Does he sign an extension or agree to one before the trade (keep in mind this trade happens this summer) I might buy your argument then, but probably not. Otherwise? Its actually probably too much for the Devils to give up for a rental.
The ask is being alleged at two impact players and a 1st as of this very moment. I find it highly unlikely any decent team does that. A good roster player under control (thats Severson) a good prospect (thats McLeod) and a 1st rounder is probably not that far from reality.</div></div>
Sorry, man. I love the Devils but there's no way that's enough for OEL, who is definitely a guy you overpay for. Plus, using Severson to upgrade to OEL is like 3 steps forward, 1 step back. We need a few upgrades to the defense and it would be a hard pill to swallow to lose our best defenseman just to gain a new best defenseman.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Nov. 1, 2017 at 3:05 p.m.
Thread:
Tear It Down- Give Up a draft to clear the cap
in terms of the Ericsson/Devils trade, a 3rd round pick in 2019 isn't worth 3 years of a 4.25M cap hit. I'm all for them using their cap space to acquire assets, but that isn't enough. I would <em>minimally</em> ask for a 2018 2nd in addition.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 25, 2017 at 10:41 a.m.
Thread:
Fixing the Devils
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>wakeman</b></div><div>what about Zacha for Galchenyuk straight up</div></div>
from a talent standpoint alone, I would do that (I've never been a big fan of zacha; I really wanted them to draft barzal). the thing that would make me ask for more is galchenyuk is much closer to being a UFA while zacha is still on his ELC.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 24, 2017 at 7:28 p.m.
Thread:
Fixing the Devils
Fair enough. What is the perceived value of him?
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