10th overall pick for a goalie

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Created by: NHLfan10506

Team: 2024-25 New Jersey Devils

Initial Creation Date: May 17, 2024

Published: May 17, 2024

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

I often see, in mock drafts and other places, discussion about NJD trading 10th overall for a goalie. NJD fans on here have proposed many scenarios to move that pick…and we have seen many offers by teams selling a goalie for #10. But I don’t see any obvious trade where that pick would be moved for a goalie.

SCHNEIDER COMP
Cory Schneider is the logical comp (Devils traded #9 overall in 2013) but he was a starter, with top-5 numbers, and Vancouver had Luongo already on the roster. Furthermore, the 2013 changes to CBA had recently included the recapture penalty, which made trading Luongo a lot harder (many had expected Luongo to be dealt as he had lost starters net and had asked for trade at 2013 deadline).

OTHER COMPS
-- Vokoun was dealt for following years 1st (had 4 yrs)
-- Raanta was sold as rental with Stepan for #7, prospect
-- Varlamov was dealt as RFA for following years 1st
-- Toskala was dealt for #13 along with Mark Bell
-- Roloson was dealt at deadline for #16
-- Lehner was dealt for #21 with David Legwand
-- Martin Jones was sold as RFA for following years 1st
-- Andersen went for #30 as RFA (signed 5 yrs)
-- Kuemper was rental traded for late 1st

In general, goalies are more often moved when their contracts are up, when selling teams have a viable alternative or when cap-squeezed.

Can see whole list of comps here: https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/714829

NJD TARGET
It likely has to be a younger goalie (30 or younger) with plenty of term/team control, worthy of a top-10 pick, yet expendable for other team. There are only a handful of scenarios that see to fit:

1. BOS / Swayman if extension talks don’t work out
2. FLA / Knight if…(would be a lot of ‘if’s’ here)
3. MIN / Gustavsson if an additional piece is coming back

TIMING
I think the goalie carousel will start to spin in July, after the draft, once extension windows open up for bonuses are paid, and free agents are signed. For instance, Swayman’s extension likely impacts timing of an Ullmark deal. Nashville probably wants to sell Saros with extension attached. Florida may extend Stolarz before moving Knight. So the 2025 picks are probably more likely pick to be moved for a goalie. (But is something occurs at 2024 draft, it may come out of left field)

CONCLUSION
My bet is that NJD finds their goalie after draft. All of these scenarios seem to be low probability outcomes.

Free Agent Signings

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Mercer, Dawson	3	$3,500,000
Schmid, Akira	2	$1,000,000
Daws, Nico	2	$1,000,000
Foote, Nolan	2	$800,000
Hatakka, Santeri	2	$800,000
Clarke, Graeme	2	$800,000

Trades

NJD

Swayman, Jeremy [RFA Rights]

BOS

If…. for whatever reason, a long-term extension is not reached with Swayman. Boston fans are confident they will reach a deal however.

NJD

Knight, Spencer

FLA

If…Stolarz is extended as back-up, Panthers need the cap space to bring back some core guys, and Devils feel confident enough in Knight to be future starter.

NJD

Gustavsson, Filip

MIN

If…Minnesota feels ready to switch to Wallstedt with MAF for a year, and Wallstedt as number one in 2025-26. And other pieces are involved.

NJD

Gibson, John

ANA

If…some meaningful retention is included, and there are other pieces involved to mitigate risk

NJD

Markström, Jacob

CGY

If…full retention is included and another piece is added

NJD

Saros, Juuse

NSH

If…Nashville is ready to move to Askorov as number one and Saros is not going to be extended in NSH without NTC (note, he can add no trade protection to his existing 2024-25 contract once he extends…so this would be the scenario where they would have to decide upon that early). Devils would have to feel confident that extension could be reached.

NJD

Ullmark, Linus

BOS

If…Boston gets Swayman extended and NJD feels like they can extend Ullmark and Boston likely adds an additional piece or two.

NJD

Hill, Adin

VGK

If…Hill can be extended, Vegas adds a considerable piece. This is probably the line of where the ‘if’s’ become too many.

NJD

Sorokin, Ilya

NYI

If…something comes out of left field on draft day that no one saw coming. Just using Sorokin as an example here…he is unlikely to be traded. But if a Sorokin, Demko, Hellebuyck, Oettinger, Vasilevskiy etc type goalie were to someone become available…anything would be on the table for them.

10.

NJD

Askarov, Yaroslav

NSH

If…a different out of left field scenario, where a good young goalie becomes available whatever reason (Askorov if Saros is to be extended, Wallstedt if MIN goes with Gus).

Recapture Fees

Ilya Kovalchuk: $250,000

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2024
2025
2026

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
22	$87,700,000	$75,551,397	$1,538,897	$5,950,000	$12,148,603

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Meier, Timo $8,800,000$8,800,000 LW, RW NMC UFA - 7	Hughes, Jack $8,000,000$8,000,000 C UFA - 6	Bratt, Jesper $7,875,000$7,875,000 RW, LW NMC UFA - 7
Palat, Ondrej $6,000,000$6,000,000 LW, RW NMC UFA - 3	Hischier, Nico $7,250,000$7,250,000 C M-NTC UFA - 3	Mercer, Dawson $3,500,000$3,500,000 RW, C RFA
Holtz, Alexander $894,167$894,167 ($850,000$850K) RW, LW RFA - 1	Haula, Erik $3,150,000$3,150,000 C, LW NTC UFA - 2	Clarke, Graeme $800,000$800,000 RW, C RFA
Foote, Nolan $800,000$800,000 LW RFA	Lazar, Curtis $1,000,000$1,000,000 RW, C UFA - 1	Bastian, Nathan $1,350,000$1,350,000 RW UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Siegenthaler, Jonas $3,400,000$3,400,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 4	Hamilton, Dougie $9,000,000$9,000,000 RD NMC UFA - 4	Allen, Jake $1,925,000$1,925,000 G M-NTC UFA - 1
Hughes, Luke $925,000$925,000 ($1,850,000$2M) LD/RD RFA - 1	Nemec, Simon $918,333$918,333 ($3,250,000$3M) RD RFA - 2
Bahl, Kevin $1,050,000$1,050,000 LD RFA - 1	Marino, John $4,400,000$4,400,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 3

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
MacDermid, Kurtis $1,150,000$1,150,000 LD/RD, LW UFA - 3		Askarov, Yaroslav $925,000$925,000 ($850,000$850K) G RFA - 1
Hatakka, Santeri $800,000$800,000 LD RFA		Gibson, John $6,400,000$6,400,000 G M-NTC UFA - 3
Willman, Max $775,000$775,000 LW UFA - 1		Gustavsson, Filip $3,750,000$3,750,000 G UFA - 2
		Hill, Adin $4,900,000$4,900,000 G M-NTC UFA - 1
		Knight, Spencer $4,500,000$4,500,000 G RFA - 2
		Markström, Jacob $6,000,000$6,000,000 G NMC UFA - 2
		Saros, Juuse $5,000,000$5,000,000 G UFA - 1
		Sorokin, Ilya $8,250,000$8,250,000 G NMC UFA - 8
		Ullmark, Linus $5,000,000$5,000,000 G M-NTC UFA - 1

May 17 at 4:45 p.m.

FoxYou727

Joined: Oct. 2020

Posts: 1,430

Likes: 834

Imo Knight or Saros should be who the devils go after

Just for fun what would you trade for Ilya? He had a down year but is still an elite athlete and goalie

May 17 at 4:59 p.m.

athrin

Joined: May 2017

Posts: 6,501

Likes: 1,718

none of these G are worth a top 10 pick some are not even worth a 1st round pick or 2nd round pick and two of them a Gm would be dumber than chiarelli, dorion and bergevin combined to pay an asset for.

May 17 at 4:59 p.m.

GeneralLandro

Joined: Jun. 2021

Posts: 16,296

Likes: 12,560

I can’t see Anaheim retaining any more than $1,400,000 but trying to stay at or under $900,000

Leaving Gibby at around $5,000,000 - $5,500,000

May 17 at 5:05 p.m.

NHLfan10506

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 41,979

Likes: 19,053

Quoting: FoxYou727

Imo Knight or Saros should be who the devils go after

Just for fun what would you trade for Ilya? He had a down year but is still an elite athlete and goalie

Was just using Sorokin as a ‘out of left field’ example. I’m sure the 10th overall pick would likely be on the table if somehow this came about.

May 17 at 5:08 p.m.

NHLfan10506

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 41,979

Likes: 19,053

Quoting: GeneralLandro

I can’t see Anaheim retaining any more than $1,400,000 but trying to stay at or under $900,000

Leaving Gibby at around $5,000,000 - $5,500,000

For a mid pick or lesser asset perhaps. But for 10th overall, I think it would likely have to be around $4m and returning a secondary piece, like the EDM 1st. Otherwise there will be more attractive options for NJD.

May 17 at 5:10 p.m.

GeneralLandro

Joined: Jun. 2021

Posts: 16,296

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Quoting: NHLfan10506

Yes sorry, I was not implying Gibby for 10OA — just saying what I think the max we would retain would be if we were to retain

Gibby at $5,000,000 for Edmonton’s 1st for 10OA? How far off?

May 17 at 5:16 p.m.

NHLfan10506

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2019

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Likes: 19,053

Quoting: GeneralLandro

Yes sorry, I was not implying Gibby for 10OA — just saying what I think the max we would retain would be if we were to retain

Gibby at $5,000,000 for Edmonton’s 1st for 10OA? How far off?

Even for three years…retaining $2.4m would be worth it if there was a guy they liked at #10 (even retaining 50%). It always depends on how the draft goes. Unless Ducks try to push up their window.

May 17 at 5:20 p.m.

GeneralLandro

Joined: Jun. 2021

Posts: 16,296

Likes: 12,560

Quoting: NHLfan10506

Even for three years…retaining $2.4m would be worth it if there was a guy they liked at #10 (even retaining 50%). It always depends on how the draft goes. Unless Ducks try to push up their window.

I’d hang onto $2,400,000 to be able to get MBN myself but I don’t know if the owners would

May 17 at 5:23 p.m.

NHLfan10506

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 41,979

Likes: 19,053

Quoting: GeneralLandro

I’d hang onto $2,400,000 to be able to get MBN myself but I don’t know if the owners would

You’d pay the $2.4m out of your pocket?

Must be nice to be a General, General.

May 17 at 5:24 p.m.

#10

GiggywithGibby

Future Ducks legend

Joined: Jun. 2022

Posts: 10,469

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Quoting: NHLfan10506

Even for three years…retaining $2.4m would be worth it if there was a guy they liked at #10 (even retaining 50%). It always depends on how the draft goes. Unless Ducks try to push up their window.

If Verbeeks making a push to fight for a wildcard spot, moving Gibson goes against that stated goal. There weren't any games this season where the team was playing great but he threw the win away, games he got pummeled the rest of the team didn't show up either, yet there are wins he still steals for us.

Moving him means we need to go get a tandem for Dostal who is still showing to be very streaky despite his skill, and the UFA market is incredibly weak for goalies this year. We'd have to burn draft capital to go acquire a goalie instead.

I figure the best case scenario for NJ is to grab a young goalie that has promise to pair with Allen as a veteran mentor and solid backup. Gus, Knight, and maybe Hill are those guys. Nashville probably isn't moving on from Askarov yet.

May 17 at 5:26 p.m.

#11

GeneralLandro

Joined: Jun. 2021

Posts: 16,296

Likes: 12,560

Quoting: NHLfan10506

You’d pay the $2.4m out of your pocket?

Must be nice to be a General, General.

Oh man, if I had that money I’d be living on a ranch somewhere raising horses & cattle

May 17 at 5:31 p.m.

#12

Celtics21

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 4,763

Likes: 1,599

A 10th pick is worth quite a bit since the likelihood the player turns into a decent top 6 player is probably 50/50 and there is the potential for more.

A late first rounder is a flyer often past the range where the player projects as a bottom liner / AHL fringe type. The upper 15th percentile is the goal. When you secure it, it’s great.

May 17 at 5:41 p.m.

#13

NHLfan10506

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 41,979

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Quoting: GeneralLandro

Oh man, if I had that money I’d be living on a ranch somewhere raising horses & cattle

…and ducks?

GeneralLandro liked this.

May 17 at 5:42 p.m.

#14

GeneralLandro

Joined: Jun. 2021

Posts: 16,296

Likes: 12,560

Quoting: NHLfan10506

…and ducks?

Obviously, a Duck Paradise as a matter of fact

May 17 at 5:43 p.m.

#15

Celtics21

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 4,763

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Quoting: GiggywithGibby

I figure the best case scenario for NJ is to grab a young goalie that has promise to pair with Allen as a veteran mentor and solid backup. Gus, Knight, and maybe Hill are those guys. Nashville probably isn't moving on from Askarov yet.

I’m actually in the other camp. I feel like NJ took a flamethrower to their season when they depended on Schmid / Vanacek. While I feel Allen is better than Vanacek, he’s a backup. If you can acquire stability in the net for a young player like Holtz or a 2025 (top 12 protected pick), you should absolutely do it. This team seemed on the verge. The fact you have a top 10 pick is an utter joke.

May 17 at 5:44 p.m.

#16

NHLfan10506

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2019

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Quoting: GiggywithGibby

We have young goalies…Schmid and Daws both have promise. But we need one veteran, at least for another year or two. We can probably meet our needs without spending a 1st…but everyone seems to go back to Goalie-to-NJD-for-1st trades.

May 17 at 5:48 p.m.

#17

NHLfan10506

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2019

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Quoting: Celtics21

The problem with NJD is goaltending is oversold.

The problems with NJD are youth, injuries, and too much inexperience on blue line…undersold.

I don’t think any goalie alone can turn us back into 112-pt team. But good health, better puck control out of dmen, and a few other holes filled… with average goaltending could.

May 17 at 5:50 p.m.

#18

NHLfan10506

Thread Starter

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Quoting: GeneralLandro

Obviously, a Duck Paradise as a matter of fact

I buy my ducks from Gen Landro’s Duck Ranch.

GeneralLandro liked this.

May 17 at 5:52 p.m.

#19

GeneralLandro

Joined: Jun. 2021

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Quoting: NHLfan10506

I buy my ducks from Gen Landro’s Duck Ranch.

You’re the man, man

May 17 at 5:53 p.m.

#20

GiggywithGibby

Future Ducks legend

Joined: Jun. 2022

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Quoting: GeneralLandro

Oh man, if I had that money I’d be living on a ranch somewhere raising horses & cattle

Let's be real dude, 2.4 million only buys you a 4/3 in SoCal on MAYBE a 1 acre plot. Only thing you are raising on that are Ducks.

May 17 at 5:56 p.m.

#21

GeneralLandro

Joined: Jun. 2021

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Quoting: GiggywithGibby

Let's be real dude, 2.4 million only buys you a 4/3 in SoCal on MAYBE a 1 acre plot. Only thing you are raising on that are Ducks.

I haven’t lived in California for like 10 years now man!

May 17 at 5:58 p.m.

#22

NHLfan10506

Thread Starter

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Quoting: GiggywithGibby

Let's be real dude, 2.4 million only buys you a 4/3 in SoCal on MAYBE a 1 acre plot. Only thing you are raising on that are Ducks.

…and one horse to herd the ducks.

May 17 at 5:58 p.m.

#23

GiggywithGibby

Future Ducks legend

Joined: Jun. 2022

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Quoting: NHLfan10506

…and one horse to herd the ducks.

Nah, the horse break the 2.4 million budget, it's getting real bad here.

May 17 at 6:00 p.m.

#24

NHLfan10506

Thread Starter

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Quoting: GiggywithGibby

Nah, the horse break the 2.4 million budget, it's getting real bad here.

Move to Texas…no taxes, real estate is cheap, and they’ll give you a horse.

GeneralLandro liked this.

May 17 at 6:07 p.m.

#25

Celtics21

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 4,763

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Quoting: NHLfan10506

Isn’t that the same bet you made last year?

Quoting: NHLfan10506

Move to Texas…no taxes, real estate is cheap, and they’ll give you a horse.

But then you live in Texas

GiggywithGibby liked this.

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