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CantStopWontStop

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Forum: NHL14 hours ago
Thread: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #6: The Quest for Lord Stanley's Cup
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafsfan98</b></div><div>Mitch Marner?</div></div>

Would you all like a package that included a Necas and maybe a Pesce and a pick? I bet that deal could exist. I wonder what happens to Guentzel. I want Guentzel to go back to Pittsburg even tho i complain about him because maybe bunting provides enuff depth that they can limit Guentzel’s minutes, get more from him each shift, but less shifts. I don’t dislike Jake Guentzel, I dislike guaranteeing him 22 minutes a game because Crosby gets that much. It ruins his effectiveness. Carolina played him 17–18 min and he flourished. You can’t have a winger that can be explosive playing nonstop, they lose that energy burst.
Forum: NHL14 hours ago
Thread: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #6: The Quest for Lord Stanley's Cup
I was looking at Justin abdelkader’s career randomly and saw this detail about his old movement clause:

(Sourced from this site)

“ CLAUSE DETAILS: NTC in 2016-17 to 2019-20; Modified NTC in 2020-21 to 2022-23 (If Detroit misses playoffs or Abdelkader is not among the Top 9 F in TOI, he can be traded to any team - clause resets in each of the last 3 years)”

Is that common? I didn’t know they could do this. It would be cool if this type of stuff were reported.

I think the league would benefit if, in general but not always, that player movement clauses were directly tied to team performance. No playoffs no clause type of stuff. Or no playoffs? Your full no move is now just no move to 10 teams. Maybe id even like it if this were a standard that always occurred unless contract is 35+.
Forum: NHL17 hours ago
Thread: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #6: The Quest for Lord Stanley's Cup
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aadoyle</b></div><div>He wants way to much money and he didnt look great the second half of the season.

Last thing we should want is a guy asking for 8.5m when he aint worth it</div></div>

It’ll be interesting to see what role and team Hronek ends up with. He seems stuck between “good enough to put up serious points, minutes, results when Quinn Hughes is the pairing - like the numbers n min n results make him look full on top pairing 8 years no question”, and the other extreme “Steve Yzerman traded me for picks and I want a giant bag and I’m gonna get paid some for numbers that are probably inflated”. Is pretty tough, but at the same time, he wouldn’t probably cost that much to acquire, so there’s temptation i feel. There just aren’t many nhl defenseman his age on the planet, let alone available to acquire, and he doesn’t, afaik, have a serious injury history, but idk, he could have long term lingering stuff.

I like Justin Faulk but I’d take Hronek (with good knees, hips, shoulders) over him knowing I’m not getting the paper performance from Quinn Hughes pairing min. Blues need to get younger on D, even if I had to pay a bit more aav and give up a future asset. That won’t happen cause movement clauses but I’d be for it. Our dude perunovich is Quinn Hughes lite - would be a good top 4 pairing perhaps.
Forum: NHLFri. at 9:05 a.m.
Thread: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #6: The Quest for Lord Stanley's Cup
I was thinking Hronek could look good in Toronto but now today Vancouver fans are all simultaneously pointing out he hid from the media all year and seemed petulant this one time he was drug in front of them.

So he’s probably not a good fit for Toronto.

I don’t blame these dudes for not liking interviews and stuff but for big bucks top pairing d money you gotta go do that and not be whiny about it. It’s just hard to look at and think; yeah, I really want that in my leadership core. Bouwemeister was about a perfect example of dude who seemed to hate it but went and did it occasionally and it was fine, never whiny, always kind and interesting, and he was helped that his market would totally leave him alone, 3 months passing with him avoiding the camera.

Hronek gonna end up in some mid tier franchise I guess. Columbus defense revamp number 8. Utah? Maybe Utah. It would be interesting to chart the careers of guys traded by Steve Y. I’m lazy.
Forum: NHLWed. at 7:57 a.m.
Thread: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #6: The Quest for Lord Stanley's Cup
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HockeyScotty</b></div><div>You don't like Dvorsky or don't think he is a center in the NHL?</div></div>

I think in a best case he’d be ready for big boy actual top 6 center ice minutes at age 21-22, but perhaps even 1 year beyond that. He’s 18 rn. Kevin Hayes contract (2 more yrs) ends at an ideal time for Dvorskys development. Until then protected minutes, no defined high level role. One year of 3C then scoot up when ready.

I think a 3 year period of development, mix of wing and center, slowly increasing icetime, lots of protected minutes, is fairly reasonable expectation/hope considering he did take a single year of OHL development. Would mirror Robert Thomas’ path to real minutes, who id suggest had a leg up, since he had a full OHL development. 3 years of center with the London knights, one with hamilton is super valuable when considering the learning curve of the nhl. Plus Dvorsky is kinda lanky, kinda…just get that vibe from his highlights. I tend to assume they take an extra year cause they’re growing and stuff. Lotsa lanky late bloomers. (Parayko, Tage Thompson, etc).

We also have stenberg who’s should just consistently be a year behind Dvorsky, ideally Otto would slot into the 3C that Dvorksy is promoted out of. But then your top 9 includes 2 centers under 24. Kinda wack.

I’d prefer a scenario where a lindholm type filled 2C for 3-5 years, then moved back to 3C as age does what it does to him. Dvorsky can contribute throughout lineup as winger for 2 years, mixing center as available, take Hayes job at his end of contract, then swap with Lindholm if/when it makes sense. Stenberg would get less center ice time but this is how barbashev developed and that worked out well. Plus you plan all this then somebody breaks a leg, so erring on caution
Forum: NHLMay 21 at 8:18 p.m.
Thread: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #6: The Quest for Lord Stanley's Cup
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aadoyle</b></div><div>Van does not really have anything of interest though or that they would want to give up for him

And that trade's way to risky as what if Lindholm goes yea I aint signing here I aint trading Marner for Hronek in a 1 for 1 especially with Hronek and his agents reportedly still sticking to their Sergechev ask

The 3 teams that rn make sense rn

1. NSH
2. SEA
3. OTT</div></div>

I wish STL would make that list. We’re a center short of a competitive roster, Kevin Hayes has 2 years left, and I don’t see anybody in our org that will displace the need to play Schenn at center for 2 more years. I dun like it. After 2 years we might have options but that’ll fill Hayes slot.

Thomas - Lindholm - Hayes - Dean/Alexandrov/Sundqvist. That’s reasonable.

Think of how gaping that hole is without him there. It’s so big…I like Kevin Hayes but …. Ya know. He isn’t the strongest 3C in the league…..

And our young grinders could develop well, ya never know, but you aren’t gonna prob get special team time from them.

Thomas is way above average. Kinda dirty to follow him up with nothing. I haven’t looked to see who’s available next, maybe waiting is the best move, idk.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 20 at 11:18 a.m.
Thread: Roles
I’d really like the Lindholm signing. Or somebody else that’s a highly versatile top 9 forward.

It was tough to lose 3 centers 2 deadlines ago, replacing them with one.

I’m not super in love with schenn at center, I think he’s just much more effective as a winger. I think it really amplifies his skillset and style. Buchnevich is okay as a C, but I don’t like giving him 22 minutes a game as it just makes him less effective.

Our young guys may contribute higher, but I don’t see us having a sure viable center option for big minutes in the next season or two.

Lindholm is a nice versatile middle roster center that provides a lot of stability, divisional familiarity. A lot like Barbashev.

Laslty, with the number of young guys on the roster, there is a need for older players for stability. You’d typically observe the blues split up their youth and vets. Lindholms responsibility allows him to take a younger winger as a line mate, leaving Hayes and Thomas taking one each as well, 2 more on the fourth line. This then accounts for Dvorsky, Bolduc, Neighbors, Alexandrov, Dean being on the same roster.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 19 at 1:17 p.m.
Thread: big time retool
Necas will be interesting.

He’s asking for the bigger opportunity. And he also hits ufa in 2026. If he got to pick, he sign a 2 year deal so he can be a ufa and maximize $, but any team bringing him in for a top 6 role would probably want way more assurity than 2 years. This combined with the fact that he hasn’t elevated his game to the point that the most premium opportunity should be guaranteed (not sayin he can’t get there, just it isn’t as obvious he’s headed there as it is with others), it’s a mystery what the ultimate destination, price tag, and term is. I don’t think any party is going to get everything they want in this deal, lotsa uncertainty. Hard to pay a guy a premium when you’re taking risk.

I could see stl interested maybe - but also maybe not. Really depends on what they view in their longer term plans and how this would change them. I’d be happy if stl took a shot at him. Big dude and he does convert 5v5, has a shot that we kinda lack.
Forum: NHLMay 18 at 12:30 p.m.
Thread: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #6: The Quest for Lord Stanley's Cup
I wonder how hard it would be to acquire Necas? It seems like a value challenge:

His performance combined with his size means there’s gonna be interest. Hard to pass on him. Excellent winger to add to a deep team.

But if he’s only looking at premium offensive minutes, Carolina kinda has to value him as if he were a premium contributor…cause that’s what the buyer thinks they’re buying and what the skater thinks they are.

But he isn’t that …. Yet. I’d say he’s a positive contributing top 6 winger, but he isn’t the guy who would automatically get premium minutes over his peers without question . But his age and next contract are very appealing if he is…


Kinda like he might be too expensive to trade? Or that the cost plus the risk gets too high to do the deal? If Carolina does believe he could put up 80-100 points in a different system they can’t give him away cheap, right? There’s a lot of upside but a lot of questions. Really seems like hockey trade situation and I’m struggling to find the magical fit. Who knows - no clue what their front office is planning. I wouldn’t be upset if my team took a shot at him but I would if they paid a super premium to do so.
Forum: NHLMay 18 at 8:48 a.m.
Thread: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #6: The Quest for Lord Stanley's Cup
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ship</b></div><div>appreciate that insight. so not a case of his voice growing old in the locker room? just curious, what happened in the 2022-2023 year that put them behind the 8ball and forced them to move some of those pieces. why were they losing some of those games pre-trade deadline in 2022/23</div></div>

Primarily Left handed defense injuries, but also 23/yo Thomas and Kyrou skating their first full season of legitimate top 6 minutes/matchups:

For a substantial period of time during the beginning, then later a huge chunk of the middle of 2022/23 , Krug, Perunovich, and Scandella were on IR simultaneously.

We also did not love Mikkola, ejecting him at the deadline to NYR (who also did not retain him, validation), and did not have a deep left handed pool, relying on first time NHL late round draft picks and Nick Leddy. Our depth chart was Leddy, then the 6th and 7th option down the list who had no nhl experience for weeks at a time. It’s kinda shocking they did as well as they did, tbh.

Combine that with super young Thomas and Kyrou playing the role of grown player - it just was a very inconsistent team. I don’t personally recall ever hating their effort and felt they were competitive in a lot of losing games.

This was also usually extreme consistent parayko’s worst year, and it had been reported as a rumor he was fighting a back issue that has since resolved itself. But he may have been awful just because whatever partner he’d skate with was an anchor.

Chiefs breakout was very simple. It requires the weak side d to be netfront to take the pass of a board 50/50 win then advance the puck to either side forward creating rush. All the d has to do is stand there, positionally discourage opposition centering attempts, then convert a reasonably low risk one touch pass to a usually wide open forward, one side or the other. Mikkola, as an example, failed at this. He’d leave the slot/net front and approach the 50/50, which resulted in him being in nowhere’s land in the events of either team winning the 50/50, both giving up the net front to the opposition as well as providing no outlet for teammates. This is Mike Van Ryns system, unsure who your d coach will be, and your scheme will be diff prob, but this is very elementary and all teams rely on this to some degree. It makes sense for us to basically only zone and breakout in this manner cause Parayko is 6 foot infinity, Pietrangelo was big - were able to own our net front more than not, win a lot of 50/50 pucks in the corners. It also cuts down on random centering passes from opponents - the team is ready to convert those in a touch to a rush attack, so you can’t just fling em Willy Nilly. This breakout and Kyrou led to a whole lot of goals.

I don’t know that any coach could have changed the outcome. I’m pleased that the various individuals all developed well during the time. Matt Kessel seems like he may be able to become a legitimate bottom pairing D, something we’d probably never have figured out if not for this season. At the deadline we thinned our roster so much it was curtains: 3 top 6 skaters who usually filled 18 min or more gone with nothing at the moment coming back. The last chunk of the season a manufactured tank.
Forum: NHLMay 17 at 7:19 p.m.
Thread: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #6: The Quest for Lord Stanley's Cup
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Saskleaf</b></div><div>Berube to Toronto?!?!

I did call it lol. I’m happy with that hire, I think he’s a great fit for the leafs. My only concern is that the team is going to think he’s too harsh or something and want to quit on him. But at this point I hope they’re beyond that</div></div>

I think you’ll be be pleasantly surprised.

IMO he’s a huge players coach.

He does adjust opportunity based on effort, but I never saw him like pick on somebody, repeatedly punish anybody. Kyrou was the most “in his doghouse” which meant his icetime went down for a game. Then you’d see a social media post where he’s working with Kyrou at practice, and that was it.

I think the main benefit of him as a coach is that he keeps it very simple. Offense and defense can be advanced and complex - that’s on those coaches - but from the team perspective he seems to be able to compress things down to simple terms. Probably a major benefit of being an ex player.

There were great times while he was the head coach and there were awful times, and in both extremes, and the middle, he was very chill, very direct and simple. He’s an easy guy to root for and it’s seemed players really responded to him. I mean we won a cup so it did happen at least for some amount of time.
Forum: NHLMay 17 at 11:03 a.m.
Thread: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #6: The Quest for Lord Stanley's Cup
I don’t think I’ve ever felt so bad for other teams than this playoffs:

Carolina has such a good team but got such a hard matchup. NYR is so fancy.

The poor Jets will really struggle to get another opportunity as good as the one they had and blew. Really just sad.

Toronto just had health fall apart, which is whatever. Its a built in risk for everybody, seems to always hit somebody.

I hate the Avs, but still, having dudes struggle with life at the wrong times sucks. Hope that dude finds out how much better it is on the other side.

The bright side for me is watching Vancouver. They’re fun and it makes me happy and I like their fans. But if Edmonton loses that’s another big bummer cause I think they’re gonna have to rethink things if they can’t move on.

Fun times.
Forum: NHLMay 16 at 10:41 a.m.
Thread: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #6: The Quest for Lord Stanley's Cup
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>Nope and neither does the NFL, NBA or MLB.

You certainly don't understand the structure of these leagues

The individual teams make or lose money. The league doesn't The "league" is just an "administrator" of the rules.</div></div>

I think perhaps this is more detailed than necessary.

While the league itself is not cashing checks directly from me for my desire to watch McDavid, the financial performance of the league’s various stakeholders is the sum of its parts over the short, medium, and long term. Individual season financials are just as important, dollar for dollar, as 20 year franchise values are just as important as supplier agreements for merchandise are just as important as broadcast rights licensing.

It’s just much easier to say McDavid makes the league lots of money than to actually break down the specific ways that this occurs and who specifically benefits. Ultimately, McDavid is a funnel for many of the ways the stakeholders of the nhl make money. It is in more than edmontons best interest that he is able to play hockey and not recovering from a broken jaw due to face cross check. Some of those interests hit a balance sheet today, others are part of equations used when signing future contracts.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 16 at 10:01 a.m.
Thread: Curious Marner for 2OA straight up
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>hawksfan1988</b></div><div>I understand what you're saying re: Bedard needs better talent around him.
However there's a better chance the Hawks trade their 2025 1st rounder for Marner if that trade was to happen. They aren't trading their 2nd OA pick this year. One could argue the 2nd rounder is a lot more valuable over Marner. Marner is going to cost the Hawks over 12,000,000 in cap space on a resign.</div></div>

Well, as far as the compensation for skaters like Marner:

The hard salary cap makes it so that these elite performers are not paid what their contribution is - they all would get more in a free market. If you compare offensive rate metrics and aav, nearly all these guys outperform the average in terms of dollars for performance despite their higher pay.

But money aside, each team only has 4 top 6 winger slots. They’re guaranteed to be filled by somebody. The quality of the somebodies drives your teams competitive position.

If you can secure a top 10 winger in the nhl for 8 years, most other teams are jealous and at a disadvantage in that specific area. They’re still all paying 4 top 6 wingers, but most all of them are worse than the one you hypothetically have. There’s a small handful league wide that are better than Marner is projected to be the years 27-35. Perhaps 5 wingers will be better? Out of 32 x 4 wingers.

Marners expected performance and the stability provided to Bedard and the team in general is worth double the aav IMO. It’s something that’s so rarely for sale that it is near priceless. We’d all trade for McDavid, Pasta, Matt Tkachuk, Drai, Crosby, MacKinnon if they were available. We wouldn’t care about how much money they got.

There are arguments to make regarding the team composition and playstyle of each player, and in this case with Bedard and Matthew’s similarity, I think it’s positive - marner likes puck possession and rush offense, the two things Bedard likes, marner likes to pass more than shoot, Bedard likes to shoot more than pass, but the ability to acquire a top 10 winger (that doesn’t have some crazy drawback like major addiction problem or massive injury history) is so rare that things like the future AAV don’t matter, as long as it fits in the planned cost structure - in Chicago’s case, their 10 year plan is wide open and depends on future performance.

A team may wait 10-20 years for the opportunity to consider acquiring a player of this caliber. The only reason Toronto is ejecting him is because they have too many elite performers at the same age. That’s a problem Chicago will have if they focus their entire core future on a 2-3 year draft window, eventually having to be like Toronto and eject an elite player at a good age because there’s too much density of performance by birthdate.

A guy like marners aav looks gross year 1, but in a normal “cap goin up” environment, the tail of the term is discounted, which allows for healthy team building when staggered.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 13 at 7:56 p.m.
Thread: Curious Marner for 2OA straight up
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>hawksfan1988</b></div><div>I have a better chance of playing right wing with Bedard next year for the Hawks vs this trade happening. In what world would this make sense for the Hawks?</div></div>

I think a challenge for the hawks is that Bedard is way ahead of the curve. Ideally, they would have waited another year or two before drafting him while some further defensive and core seeds were planted/tended.

There will most likely be a normal delay in any draft pick from this class helping the team. I don’t think you’d want to keep Bedard in an uncompetitive environment as he develops his nhl game. I don’t think you’d want to wait for some impact from this pick considering the wait is measured in years. If you consider who you could add to the team the coming years, I’m not sure there’s a better target. Perhaps there is. Ideally Mitch would be 24 or 25 but you can only add from what’s available, and he’s 26, so it isn’t like woah.

If a deal like this occurred, the hawks would still have Tampa’s pretty okay first, it’s own second which is way up there, and 2 firsts next season, so they’d still have the ability to develop a wave of talent. They’d just pull one asset forward.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 13 at 12:42 p.m.
Thread: Curious Marner for 2OA straight up
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>exo2769</b></div><div>But why does it HAVE to be Marner? It doesn't. He's a fine option, but there are plenty of options out there. AND since when is TOR rebuilding? You're saying 2-4 years out. Since when is TOR cool with waiting 2-4 years to be Cup Contenders. It really just doesn't make any sense for either CHI or Marner. I 100% understand why TOR wants to do it. They're making out like bandits! Makes no sense at all from the CHI point of view.</div></div>

I think from Torontos perspective, it’s kind of a sellers market.

Arizona has gone the last decade gobbling up the leagues waste, but it’s sensical to believe the rumors that they will add to the team in Utah. They actually have to: they won’t have the contracts to sign the picks they have and will make. They literally have to offload picks.

Additionally, this is the first time in a very long time contending teams have cap space. All these teams have been slammed to the cap for 5 years. The flexibility will not be used by all, but it gives more buying power to contenders than they have had in a long time.

So there’s gonna be buyers. Who is for sale? Would you rather Marner or Zegras? Marner or Necas?

In My Opinion:

As a sellers market, Marner is the best available asset. By a lot. If everybody available were put into tiers, he has his own tier at the top. There are obviously complexities given his NMC and the understanding that he’s going to sign 8 years if he goes somewhere, and all that goes into that choice and stuff, but that doesn’t discount that he’s the single best asset you could get if you were buying. I’m assuming Marner would be okay with a core of him and Bedard. The second best choice motivates the price: Toronto can leverage their ownership of the best available asset - the drop off to the second best - to get a fair value despite the unbalanced situation.

Toronto wouldn’t be rebuilding. See: Lafreniere. They’d go to market with cap space, secure a guy like domi for term, strengthen defense, etc. Could even trade their existing first or draft it and trade it at the deadline aka Vegas. They’d use the pick because it’s timed nicely for contribution with Matthews, Nylander, Domi, Knies down the road. They’re good enough to contend with that asset developing 2-4 years. Gives them a second wave of sorts.

The Rangers and stars have shown the way.

Really the cleanliness of the ordeal is what is attractive to me. 95%+ of existing plans can stay. Liability is super low considering the magnitude. There isn’t a whole lot to regret for either side here. The cap space is valuable enough to offset a busted draft pick, and Chicago has nobody else to give money to, gets somebody with a lot of good hockey left, better than any other choice on the market, who doesn’t have some hidden clause like “surprise I’m always injured”. Players like Marner are only traded if there’s baggage. The baggage in this case is that Toronto has too many guys at the same age that are good and also forwards, and marners term being last made him the odd one out.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 13 at 11:48 a.m.
Thread: Curious Marner for 2OA straight up
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hammerwise</b></div><div>Why would CHI slow their rebuild and get an 11mil expiring UFA?

Its not a bad offer but I just dont see CHI doing it, their window is not within Marner's remaining year, and they probably dont really want to think about a 13+mil re-sign.

If you took a later in the first pick and a big contract back like Seth Jones is more realistic for what CHI might do</div></div>

Well, I think this would be a rapid acceleration of their rebuild as opposed to slowing due to Marners age and expected contribution over term. They’d still have futures to maintain a healthy base, but they’d be expecting 8 great years out of marner.

Bedard is the rare 18 year old who’s nhl ready. Likely consideration that the 2OA will be 2-4 years out if D, 1-2 if forward. A delayed contribution similar to Kakko and bedard is waiting 4 years for an impact.

I don’t think Chicago should keep bedard in an extreme losing environment for 2-3 years. I think they should try to get him into a solid competitive environment asap (not contender necessarily, just not super doorstop), with as little damage to building around him as possible. Marner is a solid choice because of marners productivity with Matthews, clean injury history. Sending just 1 asset away means whatever plan can mostly stay in place. If they were to negotiate some deal with other pieces I feel everybodies plans would all be screwed up because of complexity.