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Shanesaw9

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Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 4:08 p.m.
Thread: Bring them Back
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pinslack</b></div><div>I think MTL could bring Toffoli to start a winning culture. (edit : in fact, he's the player I would look for when the market open)

You dont just go from tanking to contending in 1 offseason, it's normal to have a transition and being a middle of the pack team for at least a season (could be this year and next)

WPG would prefer to keep Monahan, and Toffoli would gadly comeback to MTL if he had the choice (and the locker room will welcome him).

I would not bring both to avoid creating a logjam + keeper cap flexibility</div></div>

Evolving Hockey's contract projections were included in an Athletic article today:
- Monahan 3 × $5.258M
- Toffoli 3 x $6.113M

In order to beat the market some realistic offers going off those projections could be:
- Monahan 4 x $5.25M
- Toffoli 3 × $6.25M

Personally I would also like to add Monahan, he would be a pretty valuable 3C for MTL as they transition towards being contenders. Looking at the current state of MTL's center depth:

Suzuki 1C
Dach 2C - Can he stay healthy?
Newhook - Ideally a winger, could fill in at C.
Dvorak 4C - Not healthy, or consistent.
Evans 4C
Gignac DepthC
Beck DepthC - Projects to be a bottom 6 C.

Adding Monahan solidifies that 3C spot. They have no one equipped to fill that role right now, nor will anyone be ready to fill that role for at least 2 seasons (Beck is best shot and I could see him having a year or 2 in the AHL).

Not to mention, you can always trade Monahan (or Toffoli) if the time comes and it makes sense. I would give them some trade protection but not full.
Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 3:54 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 11:57 a.m.
Thread: Habs fans
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Caniac2000</b></div><div>Caufield plays with better linemates and against lower quality of competition. You try to combine xGF% and GF%, but the problem with this is Carolina's goaltending for the first three months of the year didn't exist, tanking his GF%, because it tanked his GA. Necas is the better player, and while Caufield is 2 years younger, but Necas also has game breaking speed, and is 6'2. Caufield is bad defensively, that isn't a stereotype. xGA/60 of 2.85 for Caufield, compared to 2.71 for Necas. Necas isn't good defensively, but Caufield is worse.</div></div>

xGA is pretty irrelevant for me when talking about Caufield and Necas (players that aren't used in shutdown roles). As long as they are scoring more than they are giving up, they are meeting the standards. Caufield took obvious strides in his overall game last season as evidenced by his positive results (he's always played with Suzuki and the next best winger, Dach last year Slafkovsky this year).

Montreal as a whole had an xG% of 46%, Caufield was +3% relative to the average of his team.

Carolina as a whole had an xG% of 56%, Necas was -3% relative to his team.

Again, this is why you shouldn't be arguing hypotheticals, it accomplishes nothing for your argument of Necas' trade value. The players are not in similar situations, one is a top player on a rebuilding team, the other is a player that wants a change of scenery on a consistent contender.

You put Caufield on Carolina and Necas on Montreal and guarantee the numbers aren't so rosey. Look at Monahans numbers on WPG compared to his numbers on MTL for a prime example:

- MTL: 50.94 GF%, 45.15 xGF%
- WPG: 63.41 GF%, 52.01 xGF%

It's not a fair comparison, despite this Caufield's overall numbers were still better than Necas' last year. Again, while being 2 years younger and coming off of a shoulder surgery.

Edit: Btw, how I know you are still making generic stereotypical assumptions about Caufield is the comment on how he played against "easier opposition". Anyone paying attention to Montreal last year knows that the Suzuki line was all they had and they faced the best competition every night. Do you know which forward Caufield seen the most icetime against last year was? Ironically, Sebastian Aho.
Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 11:24 a.m.
Thread: Habs fans
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Caniac2000</b></div><div>Poor comparison. Necas has a better p/60, and better ES p/60, a lot of Caufields production comes on the powerplay. Necas' better defensively, better skater, better passer. He's the more talented player here, and he can also play center. Carolina don't want to move him, and can force a deal with his arbitration rights. Not a comparable, it's why this is a REALLY bad offer that I'm sick of seeing for Necas. Necas is a year removed from a 70 point season, Caufield has never hit that height. Necas is more comparable to Fiala, imo. Rod's system openly stangles his talent, and it's why Carolina are asking for the sun and the stars for Necas.</div></div>

I think the players are somewhat comparable, but their situations are definitely not.

I also believe you are making some assumptions when it comes to player stereotypes (Caufield being a small goal scorer = bad defensively). Last season at 5v5:
- Caufield: 56.86 GF%, 49.22 xG%, Total = 106.08
- Necas: 46.94 GF%, 53.21 xG%, Total = 100.15

So Caufield outperformed Necas at 5v5 last season despite playing on a worse team, while being 2 years younger and coming off a shoulder surgery which has been statistically proven to contribute to a dip in shooting performance for the first 1-2 years of recovery.

I get that there are some awful trade proposals on this site, but I just don't think you should use hypothetical comparisons to Caufield in your argument. I would try to look at other RFA trades in the past (Dubois comes to mind as a recent example, but there must be others). Better to use a precedent for your argument than a hypothetical.
Forum: Armchair-GMTue. at 4:44 p.m.
Thread: Bring them Back
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Subbanator7667</b></div><div>We don't have the talent to stop tanking yet. Stop to early and mediocrity will last, bring in the right vets at the right time and you can bolster the youth. You and me just disagree with when that window begins. Will be interesting to see how it all happens</div></div>

I'm also operating under the assumption that MTL would make a big addition through trade or free agency in 2025-26.

There are many ways to add talent outside of just tanking and tanking is not always a fool proof method (see Buffalo, Ottawa, the Oilers for many years before getting McDavid, etc).

The Rangers were bad for 2 years and are contenders again. Dallas have not been bad for 10+ years and they are contenders, same with Tampa before them who won multiple cups. I don't think tanking alone is a viable strategy and I also don't think MTL is as bad as you might think, with a healthy Dach (along with injuries to Guhle, Newhook, Savard, Xhekaj etc. Which ead to trading Monahan early) they are a better team last year and they still only finished 5 pts out of 11th at which point you're pretty middle of the pack when it comes to the draft anyways. I don't think Hughes ever thought or intended on picking 5th overall again this year, nor I do I think he intends to next season.

I believe MTL has Suzuki and Caufield locked to good contracts that will only get better with age and there is soon to be an influx of cheap ELC's to support their core as they contend, to me the time to spend is now (start this year, go all in for a big acquisition next year).
Forum: Armchair-GMTue. at 3:03 p.m.
Thread: Bring them Back
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Subbanator7667</b></div><div>I'm not saying there isn't room, I'm saying that we have the bodies to fill out the depth and no pressure to win yet anyways. This is the last freebie year that they can likely roll out as much youth as possible to find out who is going to be here long term and who they cut ties from before playoffs are expected.

If you wanna sign some veteran depth that's fine but trying to fill out top 6 roles with players you already had is a waste of time IMO. You have to find out if Dach is a 2nd line center when healthy, Newhook needs to prove he belongs in that role, having Monahan and Toffoli holds that back in my mind.

And even worse, if Toffoli and Monahan play well then you get a worse draft pick, if you get that same draft pick but it's because Dach and Newhook took steps forward then that's how the team will be successful</div></div>

We will have to agree to disagree. I don't see how Monahan and Toffoli negatively impact Dach and Newhook's roles at all... I have them slotted in the exact same position as you, 2nd line. Having a 30 goal scoring 2-way winger to play with will help their game, not the opposite. The only thing we've disagreed on is Roy, and I will concede he could easily slot in on the 3rd line and potentially play his way on to the 2nd line if he beats out Toffoli (or when the injuries hit).

It seems you want MTL to keep tanking and I do not, at the end of the day I guess that's the difference.
Forum: Armchair-GMTue. at 1:16 p.m.
Thread: Bring them Back
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>WastingTimeWithTradeNobodyLikes</b></div><div>but signing a bunch of mid ufas won,t help you at all.</div></div>

I agree they need a big fish, but I think it's easier to attract the big fish if the team is competitive AND they have up and coming youth. Do you not consider Trocheck to be a big part of the Rangers? Monahan and Toffoli are coming off of better UFA seasons than when he left Carolina. You need good veterans.

In the scenario here, I added Monahan and Toffoli to help make this team competitive for next season in the hopes that UFA's might take MTL seriously as a contender next year. I project Slaf at $8M and Guhle at $6M. The cap is projected to be $92M the year after.

So...
- $7M Slafkovsky Extension
- $5M Guhle Extension
+ $7.5M cap space (this year after signing UFAs)
+ $4.3M increase in cap space
+ $2.5M Savard replaced by youth
+ $3.5M Dvorak replaced by youth
+ $2.4M Armia replaced by youth
+ $4.3M Petry and Allen retention over

Net projected cap space = $12.5M... that is what I have set up for the big ticket UFA in 2025. I don't think that UFA comes unless MTL shows they can be taken seriously as a contender before then.

MTL can also increase that cap space as necessary by ridding themselves of Anderson, Gallagher or Price's contract (overage penalty).

Edit:
<a href="/users/Subbanator7667" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Subbanator7667</a> in response to your comment see how I plan to incorporate at least 3 - 4 youth by 2025-26.
Forum: Armchair-GMTue. at 12:42 p.m.
Thread: Bring them Back
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Subbanator7667</b></div><div>Those types of UFA deals should get Hughes fired.

It's a year to early to sign veteran FA's and if he uses over 10 milion in cap space with Monahan and Toffoli I'd be massively disappointed</div></div>

Can you elaborate ?

Toffoli 55 pts in 79 GP.
Monahan 59 pts in 83 GP.

They'd both be top 5 in pts on MTL last season. If I recall, there was a good portion of the fan base in favour of keeping Monahan instead of trading him (I was not among them), so what is the argument against bringing him back?

Edit:
When you say it's "a year too early" do you mean to say you feel MTL should be tanking again next year?

Also, how would you like to see Hughes utilize the cap space he has available to him this year? I left $7.5M after signing Monahan and Toffoli, so in theory you have $18M to work with - what would you want from it?
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 23 at 1:19 p.m.