Joined: May 2019
Posts: 42,354
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I looked up most public draft lists and dropped into a spreadsheet to determine who will likely be available at #10.
Assumptions:
1. We pick at #10 (no lottery win, no one jumps ahead of us)
2. We don't trade the pick
Here are the top names ranked by how often they are ranked/listed/drafted in top-9. The number given is then is a proxy for probability that they will be available at the 10th overall selection. (Note, this is not the same as an average ranking, which does produce a slighting different order).
Guys that will be gone
1. Macklin Celebrini................0.0 %
2. Ivan Demidov......................0.0 %
Guys that will certainly be gone
3. Sam Dickinson....................8.1 %
4. Artyom Levshunov.............8.4 %
5. Berkly Catton......................9.4 %
Guys that will probably be gone
6. Anton Silayev....................17.9 %
7. Cayden Lindstrom............20.7 %
8. Zeev Buium.......................32.9 %
Guys that are close to 50/50
9. Cole Eiserman...................48.0 %
10. Zayne Parekh..................50.2 %
Guys who will probably be available
11. Konsta Helenius.............66.7 %
12. Carter Yakemchuk.........72.9 %
13. Tij Iginla...........................88.7 %
14. Liam Greentree..............90.7 %
15. M. Brandsegg-Nygard...92.8 %
Guys who will certainly be available
16. Adam Jiricek....................96.1 %
17. Nikita Artamonov...........97.9 %
18. Ryder Ritchie...................99.3 %
19. Aron Kiviharju.................99.6 %
20. Trevor Connelly..............99.6 %
Guys who will be available
21. Igor Chernyshov...........100.0 %
22. Sacha Boisvert..............100.0 %
23. Andrew Basha..............100.0 %
24. Emil Hemming..............100.0 %
25. Michael Hage................100.0 %
26. Beckett Sennecke.........100.0 %
Unless something unexpected happens, our choice will likely be around the following guys
W: Eiserman, Helenius, Iginla, Greentree, Brandsegg-Nygard
C: Boisvert, Basha, Hage
LD: Kiviharju
RD: Parekh, Yakemchuk, Jiricek
Who do you all like?