Quoting: Capitalfail67
So what you are saying is you think Lapierre is worth less than a 2nd? Roberson had a better season than him. I guess he will never "never live up to expectations" huh? its almost like some players develop slower? huh? Liljegren has solid defensive numbers also. you sound like a person who hasnt watch either play. Both are risk / reward but name the last 2nd round pick Capitals drafted that has amounted to anything on their current roster? MF?
Lapierre's a year younger, plays the more valuable position as a center, and doesn't have an extensive injury history. I'd peg his value around a late 2nd, and I think it's highly unlikely he reaches the ceiling we all imagined when the Caps drafted him.
I think in general hockey fans underestimate how early players peak and assume there's more upside left than there really is. Analytics folks peg the peak for forwards at roughly 22-24 and for defensemen at around 25-27 (
source 1,
source 2). Late bloomers do happen and it's possible Robertson and Liljegren could improve, but data suggests this year is likely the best they'll get. And yes, I also think Caps fans need to temper their expectations for Lapierre, McMichael, and Protas. Lapi should still be expected to improve next year but chances are, they are what they are at this point.
Also... don't pull that "you must not watch them" crap. Are you seriously trying to tell me you watched enough neutral hockey, and watched it closely enough, to thoroughly evaluate a player who's gotten 11 minutes a night across 87 career games on a team in another division? C'mon man, none of us are NHL scouts here.