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Feb. 26, 2024
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Columbus Blue Jackets
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Forum: Armchair-GMSun. at 4:31 p.m.
Thread: Re If Marner Waives
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LuckyMoneyPuck</b></div><div>CBJ getting rid of Elvis has nothing to do with the fact that they aren't retaining on him.
A guy whining doesn't mean teams just swallow cap. That isn't how it works.

Marner has no need to sign an extension because he's traded. None. Get over that.</div></div>

First of all: I replied to you saying that they wouldn't move Merzlikins because of their goalie situation. Stop trying to move the goalposts. Second of all: yes, it absolutely does. Reports uniformly point to that they are going their separate ways due to off-ice issues. To get rid of him, they either trade him or buy him out. He has very low value right now, so if they trade him and don't retain, they are going to have to pay to do that. They can afford to retain on him and it's the best option cap-wise. You have offered absolutely zero arguments as to why they wouldn't want to retain on him in that scenario. You just say they won't do it. And that they won't get rid of him, contradicting all reporting done by people with actual connections to the Blue Jackets.

You are so far off with my motivations for making this ACGM that I'm not certain that you even read the short description above, let alone any of my replies to you. It would be amusing if it wasn't so tiresome. I have nothing to "get over." I am not even convinced that a Marner trade would be in Columbus' best interest. I never claimed that Marner <strong>has to</strong> sign an extension if he is traded. I am just saying that teams in general have very little reason to trade away assets in the off-season for a rental like Marner unless he extends with them. If he doesn't want to do it, they can just wait for him to get to free agency and not lose any assets for it. Teams have no obligation to trade for Marner just because Toronto want to get rid of him either.

It seems to me that you are not acting in good faith and are just being argumentative for the sake of it. So I'm just going to wish you a good day and sincerely hope that you have better things to do with your time than <a href="https://youtu.be/ohDB5gbtaEQ?si=RfW9m22ajUTBW7se" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">re-creating a Monty Python sketch</a> on the internet.
Forum: Armchair-GMSun. at 10:44 a.m.
Thread: Re If Marner Waives
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CaseyFlyman</b></div><div>I'd classify this under "aggressive offseason", in which case it's probably one of my favorites...which means trade values likely skew Columbus' way. That's especially true on Marner, I think that's the max offer CBJ give, but it's also lower than where other teams would be willing to go.

I wouldn't change much. A lot of things have to go right (Fantilli taking a huge step, Laine bouncing back fully, Marner meshing well, Tarasov playing like he did at his peak last season, Nylander finding more magic in the tank, and basically half the bottom-6 developing), but it's not out of the question that this team pushes for a wildcard spot next year.</div></div>

It's optimistic, to say the least, if Marner is considered a good long-term target. What made it intriguing to me was Severson (who also has to waive) going the other way. I like Severson and he is underrated, but he is overpaid and it's going to be worse towards the end of the contract.

EDIT: And yes, if this was the team going into 2024-25, I'd be very optimistic with regards to them pushing for a wildcard spot. Marner may not be a preferred target of mine (mostly due to cap hit vs. effectiveness in the playoffs), but he is one hell of a player and in the right environment, he could very well be a lethal weapon.
Forum: Armchair-GMSun. at 10:40 a.m.
Thread: Re If Marner Waives
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LuckyMoneyPuck</b></div><div>CBJ isn't retaining on Elvis. You can keep having your opinions and then there is what CBJ will actually do.

They also aren't trading 21 yo Johnson for rental Marner. You can go off with your "valuation" all you want. But those are just facts.
No one is giving up anything close to that for rental Marner who want's a 12+ mil extension. It's laughable to think otherwise.</div></div>

If they retain $1.9M on Merzlikins instead of buying him out, it results in a cap hit that is $750,000 higher in 24-25, $275,000 higher in 25-26, $1,025,000 lower in 26-27 and $1,750,000 lower for the remaining three seasons of the buyout. CBJ are going to want to start competing from 2025 onwards. I don't see an organisation trying to win a Stanley Cup choosing a buyout over this scenario, where they give up no assets.

This, like all other non-Leafs centred Marner trades, assumes he extends.
Forum: Armchair-GMFri. at 4:43 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMWed. at 9:53 a.m.
Thread: My two cents
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MitchJr</b></div><div>Completely different scenarios - Monahan was coming off serious (multiple) injury; if he was healthy - no chance Flames would have moved him and added a 1st. Same for Leafs - Tavares pretty much guarantees 30 goals &amp; 65-80 points every year - Mr consistent. Pro’s pro, tilts the ice, generates xGF at elite level, great faceoff man - is he worth $1 1M at this point, no but Leafs would need to spend $6-7M to replace his prod’n.
His cap hit is $11M but actual salary paid if only ~$7.9M and &lt;$1M after bonus is paid - no chance that Leafs would have to pay to dump one of the (still) best offensive players in the game . It’ll never happen - but just pure nonsense to argue that but this site is full of nonsense 🤷🏻</div></div>

I'm sure I'm wrong and that's okay. But what team would realistically pay to take Tavares with an $11M cap hit? Supply and demand still applies and the demand is virtually non-existent. With 50 % retention, now that's a different story. Then it gets a bit more interesting.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jaok3</b></div><div>JT isn't waiving anyways.</div></div>
Agreed. The realistic scenario is that they trade Marner now and gets some depth for the cap space while Tavares stays and then takes a pay cut in the 2025 off-season.
Forum: Armchair-GMWed. at 7:05 a.m.
Thread: My two cents
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Garak</b></div><div>Never say never. A frank discussion with a player can have an impact, and it's only one year. There is also the possibility CHI could flip him to a playoff team at the deadline, which is something TOR is not able to do for him. So, it isn't impossible.

To the creator of this ACGM: If that is something he is willing to do, including waiving again at the deadline, I recommend TOR keep their pick and pay his bonus. At that point, CHI might be amenable to taking him for free or at a much lower cost than a 1st round pick, since his actual cost will only be $901K</div></div>

If Tavares would agree to waive and Chicago would take him for anything less than a 1st after the bonus has been paid, Toronto should jump on that, honestly.
Forum: Armchair-GMWed. at 7:02 a.m.
Thread: My two cents
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MitchJr</b></div><div>Leaving aside Tavares waiving to join bottom feeder…If you honestly think Leafs would burn a 1st to move Tavares - you’re either seriously deranged or seriously trolling Leaf fans 🤷🏻</div></div>

In that scenario, they would have to do some heavy retention to have any suitors except basically Chicago (San Jose have no retention spots left for a TDL deal). Without retention, I would be very surprised If Chicago did that for anything less than a 1st. They would buying for cap space to sign UFAs. $11 M is a lot.

In 2023, Sean Monahan was moved with a 1st to Montréal. He scored 23 points in 65 games in his last season with Calgary and had a cap hit of $6.375 M for one more season. For reference, Tavares had 65 points in 80 games. So Monahan's PPG and cap hit were 43.55 and 57.95 % of Tavares'. Obviously, the value of points and cap hits are not linearly dependent of each other. But this suggests to me that a 1st or something thereabout would have to be included with Tavares in a cap dump trade.

If moving Tavares with a 1st allowed them to sign a player like, say, Montour, wouldn't that be worth it? Would you trade Tavares and a 1st for a signed Montour? I don't think it's trolling or deranged at all. Similarly, say they move Tavares with 50 % retention and pay nothing for it (I'm just spitballing here). Then they practically trade Tavares at 50 % retention for a DeMelo type of player. Which trade would you rather make if you are the Leafs gunning for a Stanley Cup?

So that's how I see it. Right or (probably, I'll freely admit) wrong. However, this is all hypothetical. Regardless, I'll agree that it's highly unlikely that Tavares waives. And, as I said, I sincerely do hope for Toronto's sake that if they trade Marner, they get something really good in return.