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RazWild

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Jun. 15, 2020
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Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 5:28 p.m.
Forum: Trade Machine ProposalsYesterday at 5:22 p.m.
Thread: Marner to Minny
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>svfsdv</b></div><div>Again, rememeber that statement. I think its pretty clear Marner will not be signing his next contract in Toronto. Whatever happens. So you cannot use the Toronto excuse. When he DOES sign, with whoever it is. We will see if he signs for more or less than EK does. If its more, clearly at least 2 GMs in the NHL disagree with your valuation of them. Ek will need a new deal in a few years as well. And we will see. If Marner is still making more, then clearly the league disagrees with your and the other posters evaluation of their values.
I have now been told by 2 different people that Ek is worth more than Marner. We will see if thats true or not lol</div></div>

1) Make that THREE people, so far.

2) Marner is the better <em>player</em>. There's no doubt about that.

The distinction, and where people are chaffing, is that JEE has MORE VALUE than Marner. With or without player skill coming into play. The differences in both contract costs and lengths level the playing field.

3) Marner is first and foremost, a winger, which is a lesser position. Who happens to be making $11M currently and will be a UFA after next year. Furthermore, he's a overpaid one at that when his considered market value was listed at $9.8M. That's a negative surplus value of $1.2M whose going to demand $12M or more on his next contract, making his surplus asset value even worse.

JEE on the otherhand is a 1C whose considered market value was listed at $10.1M, while he is being paid only $5.25M for the next SIX YEARS. That's a surplus value of $4.8M.

And, he's not an UFA until 2029.

I'm not sure what your definition of *a few* is, but JEE is not only criminally underpaid and arguably the best top-six center contract in the league, but is going to be one well into his 30's. That kind of contract value blows Marners away, even if he's a better player based on pure skill.
Forum: Armchair-GMSun. at 2:10 p.m.
Thread: Now and Then
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Waffelz</b></div><div>Realistically the only thing the Sharks would trade that pick for is a prospect equal in value to a 10-15th overall player from this upcoming draft. Think Wallstedt.</div></div>

You're woefully underestimating Wallstedt’s value to Minnesota.

That probably gets you Rossi.

Minnesota doesn’t consider moving Wallstedt unless they're getting a top ten pick back themselves. In this draft specifically, it would probably take closer to a top 5 pick for them to consider it. Did you really think a middle rung late lottery pick would get Minnesota to move the best goaltending prospect in the league?

There's even less than a snowballs chance in hell Wallstedt is available otherwise. Like I said, 14th ova gets you Rossi.
Forum: Armchair-GMSat. at 4:31 p.m.
Thread: Dumb Like a Fox
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Caniac2000</b></div><div>You can't see the issue with that?</div></div>

There is no issue. If he were 23 or younger you'd have a point. He's not though, he's 25 and already is what he is. Ryan Hartman isn’t a 60 point player just because he had one season above 40 points at 27 years old. That's called a career year. Do YOU see the issue here?

Neither is Necas the player you're claiming him to be. His underlying metrics don't support him staying at a 70+ point pace or better. They're distinctly well in line with his 3 year pace of 57 points.

Unlike say, Joel Eriksson-Ek whose metrics support him STAYING at his current level of production. Necas doesn't have that benefit or underlying numbers for him to say he'll bounce back to being 70 point player again. That's just you being a homer take.

You keep trying to insinuate that his lack of production is a byproduct of BD's defense first system.

Then please explain why Kaprizov is a 40 goal scorer, and JEE is a 30 goal scorer in Minnesota's defense first system? Kaprizov has averaged an 80-100 point pace since coming into the league in Minnesota and Joel Eriksson-Ek has turned himself into a 70'ish point 1C. All while they play a responsible two-way game.

Necas is a defensive black hole on a defense first system who also can't produce without playing on the top-line.
Forum: Armchair-GMSat. at 2:08 p.m.
Thread: Dumb Like a Fox
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Caniac2000</b></div><div>No, I liked Byfield the entire time. I was concerned about his development with his injuries, and I also have concerns about the amount of time he's playing on the wing, but I understand that when he gets a prolonged look at center, he will become a genuine 2C at worst.

Sounds to me that you're struggling to understand here. Necas' speed is his premier asset. He's the fastest player in the league, statistically. No one reaches the speeds he does. In a system when he can fly the zone and use that speed to create breakaways, e.g. anywhere not coached by Rod (or Torterella, but you get the point) he'd be a 90-100 point scorer EASILY. He's the single most tied down player by Rod's system, and if you'd watched him, you'd see that.

If Stramel was good enough to get PP time and more than 4th line minutes he would... perhaps you should question your own judgement instead of mine and Mike Hastings judgement... and you should try using facts instead of insults, they're more effective</div></div>

Really?

You sure about that?

Mackinnon and McDavid would like to have a word.
Forum: Mock-DraftSat. at 1:58 p.m.
Thread: How far could Demidov fall
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>See? There is no obvious fit at top of draft and many teams would be passing on major needs to take him. For others, I would be uncharacteristic if their general managers.

Taking your scenario a step further…if Calgary takes Tij. I don’t believe NJD would take him. Buffalo is loaded with young wingers. Philly then becomes the question…and it would be wild if PHI gets Michkov at #7 and Demidov at #12.</div></div>

The problem with that, is that Chicago has just as big a need for a franchise winger level talent to pair with Bedard as they do for a future #1RHD.

So I am really not understanding this idea that Demidov isn't a fit for the Hawks. Because he absolutely is.

Given the disparity between finding a almost surefire franchise level wing is actually worse than finding a #1RHD. They should take Demidov over Levshunov, and then move back into range to nab one of the remaining D-men who's left in the 11-15 range.
Forum: Mock-DraftSat. at 1:53 p.m.
Thread: How far could Demidov fall
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Playersoverpayed</b></div><div>Let's go into the rabbit hole. I'll say no. 9 is maximum.

No. 1 is Celebrini.

<strong>At no. 2 Blackhawks don't need additional wingers. </strong>With Dach in mind I doubt they'll take Lindstrom with his health concerns at no. 2. If they don't trade up they will most probably take D-man. They are high on Dickinson, but it might also be enyone else. Let's say they take Levshunov who is older and shots right.

At no. 3 are Ducks loaded on star forwards and have two interesting guys there. Buium is local guy and Parekh is teammate with Dionicio, Ducks' prospect. With Drysdale's health experience behind and Parekh's slight health concerns and riskier style of play Ducks might select Buium. He also looks NHL/AHL ready, which Parekh isn't.

At no. 4 could Columbus go either direction. They need forwards the most, so big center Lindstrom could be preferred in front of smaller winger Demidov. Their LHD prospects pool is also numerous, but not necessery the best. So let's say Silayev or Dickinson also make sense to them. Sure, Columbus can select Silayev in front of Demidov.

At. no. 5 it could come down to Montreal. Would you rather have Lindstrom or Demidov? I would say they would prefer Lindstrom. They might have the most numerous prospects pool, but are almost empty on centers (Owen Beck?).

At no. 6 is Utah almost empty on RHD (Soderstrom is 23, Lamouroux is 20). I can justify they could select either Parekh or Yakemchuk in front of Demidov. Each of the couple is a 30-goal scorer. These D-men are rare while offensive wingers are common. Sure, Utah selects 6ft3 Yakemcuk.

If at no. 7 Ottawa would have a chance to draft Parekh, would they pass on him? I don't think they would. Again, 30-goal scoring D-men don't come along often. So I say Ottawa selects offensive RHD in front of offensive winger.

At no. 8 Seattle has great forward group in the AHL/juniors. Defense? Not so much, especially LHD. With Evans being at least part-time NHL-er it's more or less just Caden Price. Sure, Seattle takes guaranteed NHL-caliber D-man, Dickinson.


Let's say the order so far is Celebrini, Levshunov, Buium, Silayev, Lindstrom, Yakemchuk, Parekh, Dickinson.

At no. 9 it comes to Calgary to decide between Jerome's son and Demidov. Should I try to justify Calgary should select Iginla in front of Demidov? I give up, Calgary selects Demidov. Jerome is a grown man, he will understand.

So at no. 2 Chicago selects Demidov or... ?</div></div>

Excuse me?

All year long, Chicago fans #1 counter argument for Bedard over Faber for the Calder, aside from him being the presumptive winner of said award before the season started, was that he was playing on a island with nobody's and was that productive despite playing with 4th line scrubs.

So, which is it?

Does Chicago need talented wingers next to Bedard? Or are they so good on the wing that they can afford to miss on a potential franchise winger? Whose dynamism is comparable to Patrick Kane.

Michkov is currently considered the best winger prospect in the world, and yet the talking heads are saying that Demidov is a better player with better potential then him.

Hawk fans can't have it both ways. It's one or the other. You either desperately need the winger to pair with Bedard, or you lose the *being on a island alone excuse when it comes to the Calder argument*.

Yes, there is a legitimate argument to be made that if you want a #1RHD, this is the draft to do it. But the one instance you take the winger over the future #1RHD is when that winger has franchise level potential.

Davidson just acquired more draft capital this past week. It would make sense that he's planning on using that to try and move up the board on draft day. IMO, he's planning on taking Demidov at #2 and then try and move back into range to nab himself one of the remaining D with top-pair potential around the #11-14 selection range.
Forum: Armchair-GMThu. at 3:37 p.m.
Thread: A lot of blocked shots and a little draft capital
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Boltsy</b></div><div>Because they've got, almost, a $15mil buyout penalty from Parise and Suter this year. They're rebuilding. Perbix is younger, cheaper, fairly dependable. They've only got about $6mil in cap space left and this opens up another $1.3 in space for them. They could definitely use that to help upgrade a position. Not saying it's an amazing deal for them. Could be that TBL have to toss in a little something more. Also, Perbix is a MN native and it's a feel good story for the fans, maybe?</div></div>

Which means absolutely f***all to do with anything. Everyone and their mother tries and send Minnesota born players to the Wild. They think, "Oh... he's from there! They'll take them even though we don't want them!"

I'll let you into a well known kept secret. If you were to poll all American fanbases on which one could care less if a hometown player from their state played for them or not. Minnesota would rank 1st for not giving a sh*t.

Why?

Because we produce the most American born players over everyone else. In fact, we produce 3 TIMES more than the next highest state. That's how big the discrepancy is. To put this into perspective, Minnesotan's comprise roughly 24% of the current player base LEAGUE wide.

Throw a rock at every team in the league. Chances are you're going to hit a player from Minnesota.

So, no. We don't give a F' if a players from here or not.
Forum: Armchair-GMThu. at 1:02 a.m.
Thread: Prospect for Necas
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>Fair, I missed that he led the team in 19/20.

As for his 64 points after Boldy arrived, that is exactly my point though. You can't argue he played with scrubs when he clearly had most of his success that season playing with Boldy.

Kaprizov probably wouldn't produce as much in Carolina's system either if we are being completely honest. The Canes are consistently a top team every year in possession numbers despite never having any of their players jump off the sheets in production. If you want a comparable look at Kopitar's production when they won the cup under Sutter vs after Sutter was fired. A possession heavy defense first system always smothers individual offense.</div></div>

What part of, Fiala played with scrubs UNTIL he got Boldy, did you not understand. That's pretty self-explanatory. Fiala played with Boldy for 51 games. He played roughly 280 games with scrubs.

Which is the greater number?

280?

Or

51?

Math is hard.

Yes, Fiala had his greatest season ever to date once he played with a legitimate top-line caliber winger. Who'd of f'ing thunk it. Gee, a top-line caliber player playing his best, once given similar level talent for once. What a novel concept.

Again, Fiala's worst was Necas' best.

As for Kaprizov. Are you intentionally trying to be daft? Did you miss the part where he plays in Minnesota? You know, the defense first, everything else secondary style and culture. Smother the opposition with defense in order to create offense.

Sound familiar? It should.

The same system Carolina employs, Minnesota does to an even greater degree, and does it with less skill, skating, and speed. Kaprizov does just fine in defense first systems. He's played in one ever since coming over. Anymore asinine comments you'd like to make?
Forum: Armchair-GMWed. at 6:46 p.m.
Thread: Prospect for Necas
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>Nobody is arguing 85 points is better than 71 points though I do think it is very worth noting that Necas lead his team in scoring that year whereas Fiala finished 2nd behind Kaprizov who had 108 points. Carolina plays an extremely structured system that in a lot of way snubs it's own offense in favor of dominating possession. i think in a much more open system he will be much more productive offensively
Partially disagree on the linemates part too. Necas most common linemates this year were (in order of TOI together); Drury, Bunting, Kotkaniemi, Teravainen, Noesen, and Kuznetsov. Everyone else he played less than 200 minutes with. His drop in production this year is widely due to quality of linemates.</div></div>

Thanks, you just confirmed what was said to you.

Fiala's main linemates while in Minnesota were, as follows. Victor Rask, Marcus Johansson, Frederic Gaudreau, and your name of choice of whichever 4th line Scrub that was the flavor of the month at the time.

He only ever played with Kaprizov on the Powerplay or during 3v3 OT. He averaged 33% of his points off the PP while in Minnesota. His production came from his 5v5 play and puck possession skills.

Despite this he was still on a 70 point pace for every year he was in Minnesota except for the first year and a half while here. His lone 85 point year he got Boldy at the halfway mark for the season.

Fiala averaged a 70 point pace while playing with bad players.

Necas has only hit 70 points while playing with the team best.