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jamnjon

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Jan. 15, 2017
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San Jose Sharks
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Forum: Mock-Draft7 hours ago
Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 11:58 p.m.
Thread: 1st Round Underachievers
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>colby</b></div><div>ur smoking some crazy stuff if u think they will spend a first and near nhl prospect to dump a few M for cap. better chance they just hope he comes back to form with time or buys him out. trading a near NHL 22 yearold when they are about to go into a cap crunch due to the nurse deal makes no sense. especially with how talented broberg is and how he is going to replace nurse. a first and the nurse contract sure. a first for the campbell deal? thats laughable.</div></div>

I said I don't know that they bother doing it. However, dumping cap space has a cost.

You're trying to get out of a 3 year 5M cap hit contract. Patrick Marleau's 6.25M x1 got a first in 2019, Monahan's 6.375Mx1 got a first in 2022. Marc Staal's 5.7Mx1 deal got a second in 2020, Zaitsev's 4.5Mx1 got a 2nd and a 4th, and in 2021 Stralman's 5.5Mx1 got a 2nd and a prospect who'd been taken in the second round in 2019. Yes, you could bury his contract to get 1.125M in savings, but the same could be said for most of those other deals (Marleau's was a 35+ deal so only 100k could be buried).

Based on those, IF the Oilers wanted to dump his contract which is , you'd have to be smoking some crazy stuff to think the price would only be a late second and a late round pick. It might be more worthwhile for them to buy him than to pay the price to dump him, but if they want to dump him they're not getting rid of him for less than a first.
Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 10:44 a.m.
Thread: 1st Round Underachievers
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>colby</b></div><div>Car and Edm wouldnt even consider that. 5M is a hit but def not worth the replacement of nurse and a first. Campbells contract is bad but def not worth a 1st plenty of other bad teams with cap space would take him for a 2nd and late pick. especially if they can just burry his deal and get 3.5ish back.</div></div>

I don't know that they bother doing that, but Campbell's considered a pure cap dump considering he's just been buried at the AHL level. Puckpedia's cap relief calculator suggests that three years of 3.875M of relief (the amount after burying) is worth the 18th overall pick and if you count the full 5M it goes up to pick 14. We don't know where Edmonton's first will be in 2025 but it's likely it'll be at least mid-20s. No team will take that on for a late second and a late pick. The 2024 2nd is going to be either pick 64 or 65 depending if they can come back and win the cup and there's a very large gap in value between pick 64 and pick 18 (the difference in value is roughly equal to pick 21).
Forum: Trade Machine ProposalsYesterday at 10:12 a.m.
Thread: SJS - OTT Sharks Trade Up And Draft Buium
As much as I'd love this trade to happen, there is very little chance Ottawa accepts it.

Based on Puckpedia's calculator (which currently seems to be broken so I manually went to their data source), pick 14 is worth 26.46, 42 is worth 6.76, and 85 is worth 1.74. Those add up to 34.96. Pick 7 is worth 42.44 so it's 7.48 shy. Pick 40 is 7.34 and pick 39 is 7.65 so it'd call for adding in one of those to have even value. 33 is worth 9.92 so even swapping that for 42 would come up 4.32 shy (about pick 54).

The Athletic's pick value chart has pick 14 as 5.1 GSVA, pick 42 as 2.0 GSVA, and pick 85 is 0.6 GSVA so they add up to 7.7. Pick 7 is 7.1 GSVA, but looking through 18 trades moving up in the first round the team moving up overpaid on average 10-20% with the highest being a 31.58% overpay. 10% would be 7.81 GSVA and 20% would be 8.52 GSVA, so fitting in that window would call for about 0.1-0.8 GSVA extra. Pick 33 is 2.7 GSVA and swapping that for 42 would bring it up to 8.4 total GSVA. Considering the fact that this year seems to be a big difference between the top 12 and the picks that come later, I'd think it would be at the higher end, potentially needing even more than 14,33, and 85.
Forum: Trade Machine ProposalsSun. at 5:20 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMSun. at 4:47 a.m.
Thread: Citizen Kane
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheAlien</b></div><div>Canucks keep Celebrini out of spite. Not to mention he could be a great lure if Celebrini hits FA in 8 years</div></div>

What are the odds the Canucks sign Aiden to an ELC? I'm purely basing this on his draft position, I wasn't paying attention to him in the BU games I watched this year so I'm basing this on his draft position, but I could easily see him finishing his degree and never playing at the NHL level. I think that's more likely than Macklin going there.

That said, I'm not sure how much getting Aiden into the Sharks' system helps Macklin be happy here. Once Macklin signs his ELC, whenever it happens, Aiden will still be at BU. Maybe if he gets to the point where he's close to AHL ready it would make sense for the Sharks to acquire him since the arenas are 3.4mi (5.4km) apart and they could be close to each other, but that's a few years away.
Forum: Armchair-GMSat. at 1:20 p.m.
Thread: Isles Cap Shenanigans
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jMoneyBrah</b></div><div>Not that ima sit here and say anyone is wrong to doubt this is possible. It is, indeed, a shenanigan. That being said, if a pair of GMs had the brass ones to try this I think it’s gotta stand, as:

A) As you said, and as far as I can tell, there is no rule that prevents this from happening.

B) There’s no free lunch, one team is absorbing the entire brunt of the buyout, and the original team still needs to sign the players back. IMO this is materially different from the compliance buyouts as there is cap penalties being applied within the system.

C) All other teams would have the opportunity block this from happening by claiming either player as they must go through waivers prior to the buyout being enacted. Similarly as the players would be part of the UFA pool they could be signed by any team. In short all teams have the ability to either forcefully stop this by claiming the contract on waivers; or outbid the players original team in the UFA market.

Mostly, I think this doesn’t happen because what player holding an NTC would willingly waive it on the odd chance they get claimed by their least favored destination.</div></div>

Considering they have a rule against buying out a player yourself and re-signing them (in which case other teams would have the option to prevent it by claiming the player or outbidding them) and they've specifically ruled that this circumstance with compliance buyouts was cap circumvention, I really can't see them saying it's alright here.

As far as players not wanting to take the gamble they'd be claimed somewhere they don't want to play, when the Leafs wanted the cap space from Marleau's contract he only wanted to either stay in Toronto or come back to San Jose. He was willing to waive to go to Carolina so they'd buy him out and he could sign in San Jose for league minimum.
Forum: Mock-DraftSat. at 1:11 p.m.
Thread: Ryan Kennedy (Hockey News) Top 120 Rankings (Not Mock)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>His ranking of dmen is puzzling

3. Anton Silayev
4. Zeev Buium
5. Sam Dickinson
<strong>7. Artyom Levshunov</strong>
8. Zayne Parekh
14. Carter Yakemchuk
20. Adam Jiricek
<em>33. Charlie Elick</em>
<strong>39. Leo Sahlin Wallenius</strong>
<em>40. Jesse Pulkkinen
43. Spencer Gill</em>
44. Alfons Freij
<strong>45. E.J. Emery</strong>
46. Gabriel Eliasson
47. Henry Mews
52. Colin Ralph
53. Ben Danford
<em>54. Jakub Fibigr</em>
<strong>55. Stian Solberg</strong>
58. Adam Kleber
59. Colton Roberts
<strong>60. Aron Kiviharju</strong>
62. Sebastian Soini
63. Tarin Smith
65. Matvei Shuravin
66. Will Skahan
68. Dominik Badinka
69. Tomas Galvas
71. Cole Hutson
77. Harrison Brunicke
80. Leon Muggli
81. Luca Marrelli
89. Niilopekka Muhonen
<strong>94. Daniil Ustinkov</strong>
96. Veeti Vaisanen
98. Jared Woolley
100. Noel Fransen
103. Xavier Veilleux
104. Will McIsaac
106. Joona Vaisanen
109. Lukas Fischer
111. Tomas Lavoie
116. Roman Shokhrin
119. Jackson Smithknecht</div></div>

I ran a mock on realguddraftsim for the Sharks using his list and I'm pretty happy with how it worked out, so I wouldn't complain if the teams had it this way.

1 (1). Macklin Celebrini
14 (1). Berkly Catton
33 (2). Charlie Elick
42 (2). Alfons Freij
85 (3). Cole Hutson
118 (4). Ryerson Leenders - Technically this should be 116. They haven't updated the order since teams started being eliminated.
Forum: Armchair-GMSat. at 5:57 a.m.
Thread: Isles Cap Shenanigans
The league blocks this. While I don't believe it's explicitly stated in the CBA, they have the catch-all "anything we deem circumvention" rule. I'm drawing a blank on it now, but after the lockout in 2012 there were a few stories about a team looking into doing this with their compliance buyout (no cap penalty) and having it blocked by the league.

From the wikipedia article on compliance buyouts:
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quote:</div>After using a compliance buyout on a player, that player is prohibited from rejoining the team that bought him out for one year; the NHL deemed that the re-signing of a player following a trade and a subsequent compliance buyout would be ruled as cap circumvention</div>

I get that this is slightly different since at least some team has cap penalties for the player but I can't see it being permitted here either because the purpose is clearly the same.