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BigShoots

Big Shoots
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Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 2:28 p.m.
Thread: Whats your asking price
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jerdog666</b></div><div>Van has very little Promising long term RD Prospects. Clarke would be a superstar on this team. The problem with Demko is his injury history. I couldn't imagine a world where this would be a 1 for 1 swap.</div></div>

I don't see him as much beyond an offensive dman. It's nice that he plays the right side but there is a reason he didn't make the jr team till his d+1. They took 7 lefties the yr before and cut him. Why? Because his defensive game is all over the place and they already had Power, Zellweger to play PP. Nothing about the values because i know Clarke was a high pick but his profile doesn't seem very intriguing for Vancouver given the only thing we do have is a top tier pp qb who probably will always struggle defensively to a degree. We don't need more of that especially if we can't give them PP time.
Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 12:34 a.m.
Thread: Lets Watch Hockey Twitter Burn
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JTBF81</b></div><div>Lol, Colton is comparable to Beauvillier now, thanks for the laugh. As a Vancouver fan, I know you understand fantasy worlds better, as that is where Vancouver actually wins something, but in the real world...not so much. Lol at Colton bringing back a late 2nd or early 3rd, yes, 20 goal scorers on 3rd lines, with good defensive play and not nearly as many minutes as he would be getting on many teams might be fortunate to get a late 2nd...sure(not to mention rfa status and current and future contract value both likely less than what Beauvillier is making now). Great that Beauvillier is a year younger, both are still rfa and Colton isn't the one overpaid right now.

Colton hasnt been needed to play bigger minutes yet given Tampa's situation at F, not that he isnt more than capable of doing so. Tampa, if they even planned on moving him and were feeling generous, might take a very early 2nd+ for him, but more than likely a later 1st.

Again, you're assuming the pick lands here, Raty reaches this level, Beauvillier(who now apparently is worth Colton) will turn it around etc. Maybe those things happen, maybe not. The trade as is, is no masterpiece for Vancouver. It has the potential to reach an A level, but for now, it's an above average trade in the B to B+ range. You can spin it how you ljke, doesn’t change my evaluation of the trade return as fairly accurate. Keep believing that every piece will max out in terms of value, as a fan of any team would. However, that is far from some guarantee, which is why most evaluating the trade have it as a win for Vancouver, but not some amazing steal in value. A more reasonable take is that Vancouver received a 1st that may be mid 1st round and if the pick hits, a player that could be a good one in several years, a player that has done well internationally and has upside, but is no sure thing yet in the NHL, and a player that may return to a higher level with a change of scenery. Vancouver fans should be optimistic about the trade, but whether it's a long term success is very much in question depending how Raty and the pick turn out. I disagree with most of your player valuations, and I'm done responding to this. The trade went as I thought it would, and Vancouver got a solid return for a good 2C having what is probably a career year. You can continue to spin all you want, but I could care less.</div></div>

Oh no the low blow of "your team is a loser".

We're making progress at least. Now Colton is worth a 2nd. Which is better the 15th pick or a 2nd? There is a reason he doesn't play more.

In terms of actual value as a player they are similar. Obviously with cap hits its different. That is why I said at 50% retained as an expiring contract he worth a 3rd. If it were you arguing it you'd say a first but I am able to at least be semi realistic.

I am evaluating the trade right now. It exceeded what I expected slightly. The value is something like the 16th pick (isles 1st), 35th (Raty), Beauvillier (pick next yr 3rd). Its a win for Canucks and we wont know more till thing develop but as it sits that is the evaluation. Your take was that 35th pick (Colton), 55th pick (Foote) and a third was the same value.

16, 35, 3rd

or

35, 55, 3rd

Those aren't close values and no I am not overvaluing any pieces. The pick sits at 14 right now. Isles have to leap frog one of Washington, NY, Pitt, they also have to leap frog Buffalo and stave off Florida to make the playoffs. Theyve played more games than almost all of those teams. Their chances of making the playoffs went from 14% to 18% with this trade. Please have some humility when you suggest it's going to be a 25th pick. I don't say it's going to be the 1st overall pick in 24' I'm just saying odds are its going to be in the 12-18 range and those are the actual odds not my feeling.
Forum: Armchair-GMTue. at 3:00 p.m.
Thread: Lets Watch Hockey Twitter Burn
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JTBF81</b></div><div>ya no, you just fudged everything down. According to models there is a 55% chance the pick is between 12-16. Yes they could go on an all time heater and it drops but mid 20s is highly unlikely. So when you say 1st in the deal it always meants 25+, maybe even 30+. This is going to be 10 spots higher than expected. That type of value is huge. On top of that Raty is clearly goes 1st round on a draft redo. Since being drafted he goes nuclear in the Finnish pro league, rips up wjc and plays and scored NHL goals. He's a 1st rounder in the sense we originally talked about it which is 25+.

As for Beauvillier, a yr ago during the Miller talks isles fans absolutely loved him. Seems he's fallen off but there is a player there. At next yrs deadline as an expiring defensively sound, energy guy I see him fetching a 2nd or 3rd even if you have to retain 50%.

Is Colton worth the 16th pick? not even close. Foote a late first. not really. And we'll see what Beauvillier returns. Call it a 3rd next yr. You are way off its that simple.

No, you're mostly painting everything in a best case scenario. I said it would be a 1st. No, it wasn't ever going to be a 1st from a lottery team, but any legitimate playoff team that had a 1st to move and that was interested. I thought the pick could end up anywhere from 17-32, depending on playoff results and whatever protections were placed on the pick. Tbe Isles trading for him was surprising, as they seem more of a bubble team at best, but perhaps Horvat pushes them to some playoff success.

Raty had success in the Liiga, great. He's played a very small number of NHL games so far and looked okay. His game does have some flaws, but he's trending in the right direction. Maybe he goes very late 1st round in a re-draft, but probably early 2nd.

Beauvillier,again, fits the roster player/cap move to make the trade work, as I also thought. Beauvillier currently is a negative value or no value asset based on his cap hit. Again, best case scenario he turns it around and Vancouver gets a 2nd or 3rd next year, but with the present situation, he's a cap dump to facilitate the trade. He's still a decent player, just not at his cap hit.

Colton wouldn't likely go #16 in this year's draft class, no, but neither is the pick guranteed to be there. He is imo worth a 1st round pick however, based on his play in the league. I never said Foote was worth a late 1st, as I believe he's worth a late 2nd or early 3rd at this time. Of course Raty is a better prospect than Foote, while Colton is an actual proven NHL talent that can play in the top or middle 6 vs a magic bean draft pick that may or may not pan out. Colton is also still rfa after this year, so if he was moved, the acquiring team would be in a better position in negotiations. Vancouver appears to be headed for a multi year rebuild, and so viewed through that lens, taking a chance on the 1st round pick working out in a few years is probably better than acquiring an established player now. It doesn't change the fact that Colton would be a 1st round value and, to many teams, a better pick up than a mid to late 1st.

You're hoping that everything turns out in the best possible case from the trade, when in reality, it's rarely the case. My value remains pretty close to what I thought the trade would bring, and until the location of the pick is known and Raty gets some more games, how that perceived value works out can't be known. The trade went down fairly close to what I thought, a single 1st, a good but not great prospect/2nd round pick, and a roster player/cap dump. It's a win for Vancouver and a solid return, but for now, nothing that incredible.</div></div>

The funny part is you know who is a good comparable to Colton...Beauvillier. A 26 yr old who plays 10-12 mins a night is never fetching a 1st. Even in your fantasy land it's a 28+ 1st rounder. The isles pick right now is worth way more than the 28th pick. 15+ teams are trading their first for that pick with that upside it holds. Beauvillier is younger than Colton too. And I get the contract part that is why you retain 50% next yr as an expiring and Beauvillier has value.

Your take:
Colton whos not a 1st but if we go very charitable and grant you that he is, call it 28th pick &lt;&lt;&lt; Isles 1st
Foote &lt; Raty
Beauviller at 2mil traded 50% in 24' &gt;= 3rd (this part doesn't even need to factor in. The 1st two assets are that much more valuable than a stock 1st and 2nd.)

A more reasonable take is Colton is worth a late 2nd and this pick will be conservatively be say 18th. You are taking your evaluations re Colton to the extreme and then not allowing me to even be minimally optimistic with the valuation of the actual return.

There is just no way to spin this for you.
Forum: Armchair-GMTue. at 12:01 p.m.
Thread: Lets Watch Hockey Twitter Burn
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JTBF81</b></div></div>

ya no, you just fudged everything down. According to models there is a 55% chance the pick is between 12-16. Yes they could go on an all time heater and it drops but mid 20s is highly unlikely. So when you say 1st in the deal it always meants 25+, maybe even 30+. This is going to be 10 spots higher than expected. That type of value is huge. On top of that Raty is clearly goes 1st round on a draft redo. Since being drafted he goes nuclear in the Finnish pro league, rips up wjc and plays and scored NHL goals. He's a 1st rounder in the sense we originally talked about it which is 25+.

As for Beauvillier, a yr ago during the Miller talks isles fans absolutely loved him. Seems he's fallen off but there is a player there. At next yrs deadline as an expiring defensively sound, energy guy I see him fetching a 2nd or 3rd even if you have to retain 50%.

Is Colton worth the 16th pick? not even close. Foote a late first. not really. And we'll see what Beauvillier returns. Call it a 3rd next yr. You are way off its that simple.
Forum: Armchair-GMTue. at 2:41 a.m.
Thread: Lets Watch Hockey Twitter Burn
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JTBF81</b></div><div>And actually, my valuation was pretty accurate. I said a 1st, and it wasn't even unprotected at that, a prospect in the 2nd round range and a roster player to offset the cap. As that is exactly what he returned, not sure where my evaluation was off, but okay....No 2 1st round value, Beauvilier is a straight cap dump with no value at that hit, and Raty is a good prospect with potential, but not some can't miss blue chip. It's a sid trade for Vancouver and, if the Isles do re-sign him, them as well.</div></div>

Ya to be fair looking back my big issue was with the valuations you gave those Bolts players.

Having said that I think you miss the point on the 1st, the fact that it is top 12 protected tell you how valuable it is. The Bolts for instance don't need to protect their first for obvious reasons. I think the 1st is going to be 10+ picks higher than what we valued a 1st at. That is a huge jump say getting the 14th pick instead of 29th.

As for Raty hes 20 yrs old. Had an incredible d+1 season. Is one of 12 players from his draft class to have played NHL games . I think you'd have to say that is late 1st value. He fell to middle of the 2nd and his stock has risen significantly since.

Beauvillier isn't worth anything this yr but if we can get him back playing his best hockey, getting a 2nd for him at next yrs deadline seems reasonable.

The biggest thing is that 1st is gonna be so much higher in all likelihood. Raty is about the prospect i expected. Solid if not spectacular. And Beauvillier reminds me of Garland kinda in that his stock is down but there is a player there.
Forum: Armchair-GMTue. at 2:29 a.m.
Thread: Lets Watch Hockey Twitter Burn
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JTBF81</b></div><div>Lol,.a top 12 protected 1st, an okay middle 6 player and a good, but not great prospect that was a mid 2nd round pick. Solid value but nothing special. Good trade for both sides as long as Isles re-sign him.</div></div>

It was higher than even I suggested and waaay higher than you were suggesting. The 1st I though would be 25+ (its like to be 12-16), Raty looks a borderline 1st level prospect, and Beauvillier is a project with upside. Could easily turn him into a 2nd if he plays well.

Honestly I think this is a terrible trade for the isles. Horvat is a bad fit for one. They have Nelson and Barzal down the middle. The worst thing they can do in my mind though is resign him. Mark my words, Horvat is the JT Miller of this yr. He's way outscoring his normal rates with an unsustainable shooting %. It's pretty obvious he'll regress back to a 50-60 point player. And someone is going to pay him 9 mil. You dont want that team to be yours in this case in spite of the cost to acquire. Sunk cost fallacy. Mark my words.
Forum: Armchair-GMTue. at 2:22 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon. at 7:06 p.m.
Thread: horvaT
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>gordfish</b></div><div>Very surprised the Islanders got back in on this, given the season they've had. But, they are in the similar spot that Nashville is in, I guess. Vested in a veteran team that you really have little choice but to double down on. I'll say this for the Islanders...if Horvat ends up being strictly a rental, this has the potential to cost Lou his job if they don't at least make the playoffs.

For the Canucks, I'll take it. Raty is the guy I wanted when he was still on the board when they took Klimovich. He can be a really solid third line centre for them. All of a sudden the Abby Canucks looked stacked at forward. And that's funny. This is a deal more suited for a rebuild, and the best part of the return might be the pick. They could be in the position to grab the best defensemen in the class, and if it's Reinbacher and he hits, they could potentially get their number one RHD in waiting in the deal as well.

Yup, I don't think I mind this deal at all. Nothing breathtaking, but solid.</div></div>

Oh I think it is pretty breathtaking. That pick has so many outs that are amazing for Van. Your right that we finally made a deal for futures which the fanbase has been screaming for. Beauvillier is another asset we can try and mine value out of. I had the return being similar to what Giroux got and I'd say this is 30% more than that.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon. at 6:32 p.m.
Thread: Lets Watch Hockey Twitter Burn
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JTBF81</b></div><div>Smart GMs don't fall for one 45 game stretch vs what the player has done for the majority of their career(hence Giroux is a stronger overall player with better value). However, as Vancouver well knows, there are plenty of idiot GMs in the league. Vancouver reportedly isn't letting teams talk an extension with Horvat's camp either, and yeah, a good offensive 2C with at best, average defense who is a 55 point player on average isn't getting 2 1st round pick quality assets and an additional piece as a rental. If he's supposedly wanting 9+ on his next deal,even more hilarity, as the team paying that is out to lunch. If Vancouver would allow extension talks and he did come with an extension in place, his value would be higher, but apparently, as usual, Vancouver isn't making the best choice.</div></div>

Well there you go my friend. I guess we can say your evaluation of Horvat was way off. I felt pretty strongly I was being conservative in my evaluation but this blew me away. Prob 30-40% more value than I expected.
Forum: Armchair-GMSun. at 2:22 p.m.
Thread: Start of 23-24 with retroactive trades ALL IN BABY
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PurpleHippo</b></div><div>My point more so is that at 5 mill Edmonton is passing on him, even for a second.
If there's retention than yea a first could be in the question, but otherwise why give up a 2nd when he just isn't moving the needle... maybe another contender will need him?

If the Oilers were in a situation where we needed to sell I would 100% retain on Kane to increase the value of his return.</div></div>

You get what is it 2-3 retentions and you are going to use one for 4 yrs. That is totally unrealistic. Absurd. Again has it ever happened for a player who is performing? Garland 1 mil retained for 2 1sts maybe id consider. Canucks are too stupid to actually target picks and rebuild unfortunately.
Forum: Armchair-GMSat. at 8:14 p.m.
Thread: Start of 23-24 with retroactive trades ALL IN BABY
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PurpleHippo</b></div><div>I think people de-value based on the stats they can see rather than the actual play of the player, it happens a lot in Edmonton with Barrie who has been incredible this year but still gets labelled a dump.
From what I've seen of Garland this year (and scarcely before) he's a great complimentary player but if I'm a GM giving up assets for him and taking on another 5 mill in cap after essentially 4 years of a cap freeze... there just isn't any value there.

A lot around it is just to do with the contract and term for Garland, a 2nd for him is fair and I'm not trying to take away from that but realistically Edmonton and other contender teams won't do that since there isn't a huge benefit in doing so. HOWEVER, retaining 1-2 Mill on him creates a bigger benefit since he is massively outproducing a "3 mill a year" contract.

If it was something like a 2nd and a B+ prospect (or something of value) for Garland with retention Edmonton would jump on it, but we would need to move cap and dump players to move him in at 5 mill and that in itself gives him some negative value; plus, Vancouver (I hope) will go into a rebuild instead of a re-tool, them retaining on a few contracts to gain more draft capital/prospects isn't the worst thing.</div></div>

As I say retaining on a player who is performing up to there contract and beyond is madness. Has any team ever done that? You'd have to think it'd be for a 1st or two if they ever did.

If you dont want him or don't think you can fit him in that is fine thats why I said "to anyone" but you don't get that type of player cheaply often, let alone with retention. It's not a realistic ask. It'd be a little like retaining on Evander Kane in a trade that brought back a 2nd and b prospect. .