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Billy739

Billy739
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Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 15, 2021 at 7:31 p.m.
Thread: Mehh
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 14, 2021 at 11:38 a.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Josh</b></div><div>YEESH that's way way way too much

Chytil, Filip
Schneider, Braden
Kravtsov, Vitali
2022 1st round pick (NYR)
2022 2nd round pick (STL)
2024 2nd round pick (NYR)

Additional Details:
Conditional 2024 pick becomes a 1st if Taresenko Re-signs or wins a cup before this draft

NYR gives up a mixture of Quality and Quantity.
-Chytl's ceiling is showing him as bottom 6 now
-Kravtsov like L.Anderson hurt his value and is worth a 2nd rd pick now at best if NYR is lucky as he proved less then L.Anderson at this point
-Schneiders the real Prize as a good RD prospect who will take some time but should develop into a solid 2nd pair RD.
-1st will be a late round pick
-2nd will give STL back their pick from the Blais trade
-2nd will likely remain a 2nd unless Taresenko/Panarin develop a chemistry that makes him inclined to take less just to be able to stay.</div></div>

Its the cost of not touching any of NYR top 3 Prospects/young players
Kravatsov's worth a 2nd at absolute best as established by L.Anderson who did and proved more
Chytl's value is not that high, if he was established as a Center different story but he's as much of a Center as Drouin is(he's not )
Schneider has value likely the most in this package
The picks are all going to be late diminishing their value

On Paper this looks ridiculous but its about balancing Quality and Quantity without touching a Lafreniere, Kakko,Miller,Lundkvist,Othman,ext
I mean i took Schneider over Jones to FFS
At every turn i took the least valuable option that still is worth taking
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 14, 2021 at 11:32 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 9, 2021 at 7:01 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 5, 2021 at 1:26 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>UpsideDownQue</b></div><div>Just because there are injuries doesnt mean you should get a conditional 1st instead of late round picks for your depth players... What past trades do you think are comparable here? Past TDL moves have shown that depth D men are worth late picks:

Nemeth for a 4th
Benn for a 6th
Gudbrandon for AHLer and a 7th
Gustafsson for a 7th
Hutton for a 5th
Kulikov for a 4th
Forbort for a 4th
Del Zotto for a 6th
Beaulieu for a 6th

Those are the trades you should be looking at here as comparables</div></div>

If neither was producing you might be right
But they are

Its the difference between BUF flipping us Scandella for a 4th
Then MTL playing Scandella for what 2 months then flipping him for a 2nd and a 4th because he was producing

Wideman has 3 points in his past 5 games and 9 points on the seasons as a 6th/7th D
Kulak is less offensively inclined but a better overall player capable of regular minutes if injuries happen

Thats as many points as Scandella had in his 20 game detour here in just 5 games for Wideman
If this year was a Buyers market you might have a point
But this year there's more people still in the playoff picture then completely out and those people discounted last month are in the mix now in some cases.


Its why the TDL is so exciting
Scandella wasnt worth a 2nd and 4th
Plekky wasnt worth a 2nd and 2 AHL prospects
Hanzal wasnt worth a 1st ,2nd and a 4th but got it


This year there is not a ton of D available especially not thats producing.
Look at the teams you think are going to be selling
Look at the players you think will be available
Then think about the Ratio of Playoff hopefull teams buying
Maybe then you're see the Context of Reality

What you did was show up to Relator and go
"i want this house for 50k " without factoring in any variables like Locations ,Land size, Construction date ,ext
Just because you dont get it doesnt mean the Realitor lowers the price.
It just means she'll tell others to avoid dealing with you
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 5, 2021 at 12:32 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 5, 2021 at 12:26 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>swinny</b></div><div>Not buying what your selling.

The Habs front office was gutted for a reason. Drafting has been atrocious at best. You can't sell drafted asset when you guys just turned the guy who did the work. There is a reason he is gone.

Romanov I like. Guhle is 2-3 years away. Norlander is alright, but doesn't wow me.

You do need a 2C that fits the young core. Dvorak isn't it. Maybe a 2LW, but not a 2C. Plays a great two way game, but I would want more production from that position, using Dvorak on LW as a defensive presence who can put up 40 points. They don't grow on trees, but a guy like a Gabe Valardi or Dylan Strome can be had (later for pennies on the dollar), and worth a look.</div></div>

Dvorak has been great
He's done more in the PIT game then Suzuki the last 11 games
7 points in the past 10 games isnt #1 line good but its 100% good enough for 2nd C (almost as much as Danault all year)

Also you're saying "lets take last years Top 10 Faceoff Center and move him to Wing" and expecting me not to mock you
that's brave for sure

Vlardi cant be had for pennies on the dollar
We tried getting him different time there was always a cost
Closest we got was Patches deal he declined and we got Suzuki instead.

Strome could be an option but what we need is help for Dvorak who's the only real Faceoff Center taking Defensive Zone Faceoffs.
How the F^^^ you expect him to score when he's being put on DZ assignment because all the rookie Centers can take them?

The fix is pretty easy honestly
Acquire a Cizikas or Sissons type.
They gave their Center Core time to Grow as they're good on Faceoffs and Contribute as probably the 2 best 4th line Centers of the past 5 years consistently.

Dvorak and Sissons lets say take bulk faceoffs with Sissons handling a large amount of the DZ faceoffs.
This gives Dvorak more to in the OZ
Given he out scored all players in ARZ the past 2 years he was there including Kessel,Keller,Garland,ext i'd say that's what they had we dont
They never leave their Centers this screwed whether its Brassard,Richardson,Hanzal,Vermette,ext they always have someone cover Bulk Defensive Zone Faceoffs as they're the most difficult
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 5, 2021 at 12:03 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 5, 2021 at 11:59 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 5, 2021 at 11:49 a.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DirtyDangle</b></div><div>hes declining and getting old it's a bad combo given his contract. even if he has better playoffs hes still getting worse as a player. you're selling a lemon</div></div>

Re-read that sentence then enter Rehab
You sound drunk
Everyone gets old and declines period
Price's state of decline isnt concerning at all but more like Brodeur's
Everyone **** talked Marty for years but he put up his best numbers i think as 34-35 and went to a SCF at i think 39?
Tim Thomas was a nobody who took off at 31 becoming a starter who won 2 Vezina's , Conn Smythe and a SC by by age 37 i believe

Goalies Mature different then Skaters.


Your statement is "just because he's better in the playoffs where it matters doesnt mean he's got value "
There's not a coach in the league that goes "well i dont know "
They'd just laugh and say "that's why there's a Back Up Goalie Position"

What matters is come playoffs
As far as how much he made thats on Molson for interfering in Subban trade talks because they were going bad and MB was ready to move Subban.
Molson interfered and gave him his full ask

What can you do ?
Why would Price take less given he at this time carried the team for most of a decade.
Is he over paid ? Yup
Does that mean even in his decline he has not Value? Nope

Most of his Contract is Signing Bonus actually like 80% and paid 45.75m/70m of his signing bonus's with 7/14m base salary in the first 4 years.
His Contract becomes less scary from this point out and while the cap hit is high who doesn MTL have to pay really ?
Our 2 biggest young guns we were worried about collecting are both underachieving .
We're rebuilding now and Price/Primeau tandem will be the difference between another year like this or actually competing .

Price may not make sense to some
But to those who watch him play not just read sports stats out of Context
We see the Value in Price even as he gets older
Fans even when they demand everyone be held accountable always give 2 players a pass
Gallagher and Price because when they've been out/injured we've had historically crappy starts.(this is the worst one yet but we've had some bad ones under Therrien/Julien they called historic as well)
They may be paid a lot but that's because they're Quality Players (this isnt a Neal /Skinner situation where a team feals cheated right after signing a deal. We got what we expected out of it)
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 5, 2021 at 11:16 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 5, 2021 at 11:11 a.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TZ11</b></div><div>The Ducks wouldn't even trade either player for Drouin 1-for-1</div></div>

To be fair MTL wouldnt trade Drouin for either player 1v1
Only Toffoli and Suzuki are producing on his pace
Despite missing 6 games he's tied for 4th in scoring with people ahead of him who missed no games.

His slow start since returning hurt but he's producing unlike Suzuki who has 2 points in the last 11 games
Suzuki heated up with 13 points in 11 games after a 5 game cold streak to open the season


My point is in MTL looks can be deceiving
Last year 100% Drouin would be gone for anything
But after the time off we have seen a 100% different player out there.
Even when other players like Suzuki have voiced the stress's of playing in MTL are weighing on him mentally
Drouin seem to be thriving as the longest he's been held off the score sheet is 3 games (only twice with back to back games with no points he just looks more balanced overall less streaky)

Now Suzuki is they one we're worrying about as he's a Winger who played Wing at Junior who we pushed to Center. In Junior it never worked as they felt it held back his offense and Team Canada tried him as 3rd Center with his line being the only non contributing line that year as he struggles with Faceoffs unless their in the OZ. My Point is we might have to accept this is a learning curve with him just like we did with Drouin.

Players were looking to sell are Lehkonen,Armia ,Paquette, Chiarot,Kulak,Wideman,Allen,Montembault ,ext.
Even though Comtois is great if we're moving a Winger its to make space not make a lateral move
Groulx i think is the next Sissons type 4th Liner who will contribute on Special teams with Grit edge to him but as much as i want him he's just a better version of what Poehling can be.(and is showing he is )

ANA isnt a good trade partner for a Drouin deal IMO
I think if anything ANA is looking for Defensive Depth for a playoff run
Their offense is pretty good , their goaltending is set and their top 4 Dcore is solid with a reliable #5 D but #6/7 could 100% be upraded as those 23 year olds havent showed they can play regular minutes in the NHL without being a liability come playoffs. (plus they may be able to cover 3rd pair but if injuries happen they have no more to give this year atleast IMO)
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 5, 2021 at 10:45 a.m.
Thread: French raid
I dont think MTL bothers
Gorton will value Goal Scorers on good contracts
Besides Toffoli's stock is lower then last year due to MB "build" this year offering no support after losing Danault/Weber while MB insistent Evans/Savard could step up from bottom pair to a middle 4/6 role.


That said Armia MTL is looking to move as well as Lehkonen.
Lehkonen's actually doing pretty solid as his defensive game is solid as ever but his offensive game's stepped up taking him from his usual 13th-19th spot in scoring on the team to the 7th
Armia is struggling this year and although he's still playing up to his contract he's not getting the Center Support he's use to as he's playing with Paquette/Poehling/Brooks/Evans and Perrault this year so far wear as in years past it was always a Danault or Staal at best or a KK at worst (they had good chemistry). He wont survive a Rebuild and his value will drop as he needs to play with a strong center to be effective

Chiarot (1.75% after 50% RS)
Armia(3.4)

for

Barrie
Turris
Lavoie
2nd round pick conditional (if EDM makes 2nd round of playoffs it becomes a 1st in either 2022 or 2023 with EDM choosing 1 week before the draft which)

Kassian isnt someone we want
Nor is he someone EDM should want to move
Come playoffs Kassian will pay dividends and keep anyone from running your stars
Chiarot cant fight,he'll try but he'll draw , lose or injure himself but he's tough to play against and crushes people with big hits.

If im EDM im taking advantage of the fact Bouchard/Ceci are thriving using this as a chance to move out Barrie without losing someone to eat up minutes.
Chiarot allows a balance where Broberg should be able to comfortably grow on 3rd pair RD until he emerges strong enough to push Ceci down into his natural #5 D role

MTL gets someone to help support Petry on RD but also someone to help him and Eddy someone to help mentor the overwhelming amount of young LD we have here and coming up in the next year
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 5, 2021 at 10:27 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 5, 2021 at 10:14 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 5, 2021 at 10:02 a.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>swinny</b></div><div>None of these deals address the issues around the Habs.

1. Barrie is a puck moving D, but this is far more needed on the left side. After this deal, now you have Marc Savard playing 3rd pairing minutes at $3.5million per. Not good cap management. Highly doubt Yakamoto moves anyway..... even beyond that, the package for he and Barrie is VERY VERY light.

2. RW is still overloaded. Should be looking too early Gallagher or Anderson for a C. Especially with that dream of landing Yakamoto.

3. Habs need a 2C. Full stop.

4. Moving Kulak and Chariot for an expiring contract is HORRIBLE asset management. Kulak lands a mid round pick, Chariot should land a late 2nd at best.

You: Ryan Murray. 🤦‍♂️..... whose days as a puck moving D option have sailed to boot.

No. No. No.</div></div>

1.Barrie was a way to get Value in return but like Petry and Eddy have until next years TDL to prove they fit it.
Most of the young D we have coming up are LD so acquiring one is contradictory to what we need.
These are the 4 young LD who will be competing for 3 LD spots of which i doubt any will push Eddy out
-Romanov
-Norlinder
-Ghule
-Harris

That's not including our prospects excelling that arent close to pro yet with 2- 3 years left in NCAA/Junior
-Struble (Shea Weber 2.0 in every regard but his shot as its not quite as hard or accurate but still good)
- Trudeau (kinda reminds me of Shattenkirk early on)
-Xhekaj (Like Alexi Emelin type player known for hitting/blocking shots but can finish fights even though he doesnt like getting into them)

We had 1 credible RD prospect and even if he was superman he's been bullied to the point i dont think the Media will allow him to have a career.
Its ironic really as they slander him with terms like "sex offender" but was never tried for a Sex Crime but under laws they use to keep Paparazi under control.
Until the kid offs himself they'll never let go and then they moment he does they'll condemn bullying without a hit of Irony.

We dont need LD
We need strong RD to play with them until they become Regulars no longer considered noobs
Once a RD steps up we can promote them and remove a Petry,Savard or Barrie.

Issue is our best RD and only one capable of reasonably making it to the NHL in the next 2 years is Mailloux meaning minimum 1-3 years we need a RD core.
Otherwise were just hanging our young RD out to dry like we're BUF or ARZ

2. Habs are rebuilding we dont need a 2C period
If we were contending you'd be 100% onto something and most of my trades pre Gorton targets 2C /2nd pair RD
Gorton coming in means saying everyone is being auditioned and the coach is safe atleast this year says no 2nd C

Its Gorton saying Suzuki/Dvorak/Poehling/Evans have a chance to solidify themselves in 1/4 spots.
Those who cant will be replaced or moved to wing.

What we need is what we gave Danault who had similar numbers as Evans before his first season at Center on 3rd line (Byron/Pacioretty and a Shaw)
Having a Goal scorer on his Wing coupled with a all around Forward who plays as a Secondary Center like Shaw (Without Shaw no Danualt,or Domi on the levels we seen them he was huge for them)

3. They werent traded alone for a reason
Barrie will get more then Chiarot would have when we sell him
Until then he'll fill a big hole with Weber and now Petry out on IR.

Kulak got more then he would have alone
Rather then 2 mid round picks we got a 2nd round pick and a conditional 4th after trading Murray.
That's more then either gets by themselves . . . . . . . . . . .

Murray went to a team struggling with consistency and only 5/7 D playing well
they got Fleury and Lauzon who could use some support and Borgen isnt it.
He's a cheap pending UFA who's going to a non contender with low expectations
The idea for Murray in Seattle is to take some pressure off the younger guys thats it
MTL only acquired him to maximize their return and make the cap work with COL
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 5, 2021 at 9:25 a.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>You're expecting too much return on all of these trades (except the SEA trade, which would basically be a gift if they weren't already swimming in LD).

And btw... Yamamoto plays on Drai's line, not on McD's.</div></div>

My bad i though he got promoted when Archibalds heart condition came up
In either case the Context of the statement even if it was with Dri instead remains valid.
The more pucks a guy like Armia can cycle them and the more screens he can provide the better.

If MTL didnt have an Armia replacement on standby and Anderson already here long term we wouldnt be selling him
That said our team does value speedy forwards like Yamamoto and while Armia if very fast its only in a straight line with no where near the Agility of a Yammamoto


As far as fair Value its TDL season and Value's change based on Demand
Its like any market if its a Buyers Market the teams wont get anything
But if its a Sellers Market like it is the last couple years especially then these are actually below value.

Example MTL trade with TML for Plekanec.
Everyone on here said Plekky wouldnt get a 4th he'd be lucky to get us a 5th rounder as he was struggling hard.
But there was only 3 Centers with dominate faceoff numbers that year and after i think it was Hanzal got a Prospects ,1st ,2nd and a 4th
Plekkanec price went way up to a 2nd round pick and 2 prospects MTL flipped for Kulak

Context matters in a Capitalist market 100% of the time with no exceptions.
Context is here most of these trades are under the market value of similar players moved last year
The only way your statement holds water is if you can prove that this is a Buyers market (which you cant, to many injuries piling up plus Covid issues coupled with not Taxi Squad safety net its 100% a Sellers Market)