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Black61
Member Since
Sep. 5, 2020
Forum Posts
1342
Posts per Day
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THREADS
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ARMCHAIR-GM TEAMS
Forum:
Armchair-GM
19 hours ago
Thread:
Will they sign Horvat long term
Easy pass from the habs they arent taking on a bottom 6 C making 5 million with term whos already in his 30s
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
21 hours ago
Thread:
Beauvi to MTL for a center
No the habs dont need another winger and they literally called a centre from junior last game because they needed one so bad
Forum:
Armchair-GM
23 hours ago
Thread:
Horvat signing Palmieri trade futures
Ah yes a 32 year old with term who has missed half the season and has been a sub .5 ppg over the last 3 years. That a pay to dump deal.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 11:07 p.m.
Thread:
Dubois situation is similar to Trouba in 2019
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LIRIK</b></div><div>Pretty sure Gorton has a say in every trade.
Pionk had a 26 points season before he was traded. Advanced stats are bad because he was a young 22 years old defenseman on his 1st full NHL season. He turned out to be a decent top 4 D.
PLD is eating Suzuki this year. Not even close. I would bet he ends up being a better center than Suzuki.</div></div>
Having a say =/= being the GM. Hughes isnnt going to do it just because Jeff did it before.
https://www.timeanddate.com/date/durationresult.html?m1=07&d1=29&y1=1995&m2=06&d2=19&y2=2019
Pionk turned 24 a month after the trade. He wasnt that young.
Despite being older than nick since entering the league nick has literally 1 point less than Dubois does over the same sapn while nick has elite defensive skills while Dubois has routinely been a botton 1/5th player defensively. Nick is EASILY better.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 10:52 p.m.
Thread:
More or Less Than Debrincat
The gap in value between what debrincat got and what you proposed is massive.
The 39th overall pick is worth the late 2nd and 3rd and the gap between 7 and 28 is a pick worth around 12-13th overall.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 10:37 p.m.
Thread:
Dubois situation is similar to Trouba in 2019
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LIRIK</b></div><div>A) Gorton and Hughes are both GMs, but since it's MTL, the 'official' GM has to speak french. Gorton is president of hockey operations, but he's involved in every trades.
B) It doesn't prove he will do it again, but it shows he prefer to secure a player now instead of risking losing him on UFA market.
C) FLO 2023 1st is worth more than the 2019 20th, but Pionk was a better D than Barron. PLD will have a better career than the 11th overall, he's a 1C even better than Suzuki.
D) Trouba fell behind Adam Fox on their roster, but he's still a good defenseman. As for Dubois, i think he would love to play for MTL and would be our 1C for years.</div></div>
A) https://www.nhl.com/canadiens/team/hockey-operations
Gorton literally isnt a GM. Kent technically oesnt even report to him he reports to Molson.
B) Again thats not his decision to make. He has said multiple time Hughes has final say on personnel. Gorton is in charge of the business side of the job.
C) https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E8hKAyWXEAU1ZjT?format=jpg&name=large
He wasnt. Also he was older at that point that Barron is now. Barron is worth more today than Pionk was worth then.
PLD isnt better than Suzuki that is laughable. PLD has terrible defensive metrics by most analysis he shouldnt be playing centre he so bad at it.
D) If he wants to play for the habs so bad he can wait a year and sign as a free agent and he will never be 1C for the habs while suzuki is around.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 9:53 p.m.
Thread:
Dubois situation is similar to Trouba in 2019
A ) Gorton isnt the GM Hughes is.
B) Doing something once doesnt mean you will do it a again. It was a desperation move by the rangers then and the habs front office hasnt done anything remotely that desperate.
C) The Florida pick currently sits 11th by point percentage. The value of 11 vs 20 is a massive difference. Theres a decent chance the 11th overall pick has a better career than PLD where a 20th overall pick its much less likely.
D) With hindsight most rangers fans would likely agree the trade at best was a wash but realistically they ended up losing it. One of the consequences of the trade was giving trouba a deal he was not worth because the leverage of the situation. It will be the same situation with Dubois where you overpay a player for something hes not.
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
Yesterday at 9:30 p.m.
Thread:
As seen rumoured on Twitter
Thats a steep price to pay for a winger who has terrible underlying numbers.
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
Yesterday at 9:29 p.m.
Thread:
Price is selling his house in MTL
There would literally be 0 point int the habs retaining.....hes on ltir
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 9:15 p.m.
Thread:
Intersting to see
The oilers tried to dump barrielast offseaspn to no takers he wont generate any value for the habs. Easy pass
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sun. at 12:06 p.m.
Thread:
Blueger
That would be a pretty easy pass by the habs not taking a year of Foegele for moving 40ish spots in the middle of the draft
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sat. at 6:52 p.m.
Thread:
A trade that helps both sides
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Campabee</b></div><div>I know it happens, I never said it didn't. What I said was it doesn't normally happen.
I wasn't ignoring their exempt contracts, I just assumed they were exempt until next season started, that's on me for not understanding how they work.
I don't think Davidson, Struble or Tuch get signed. Dobes and Vrbetic might (although one or both may sign an AHL level contract to end this year and an NHL contract in the summer.
I know we aren't claiming guys cause of the limit but we also don't have to take back Johnsson since Byron is expiring and LTIRetired and Fairbrother can be moved with Byron for a mid/late pick to free up 2 contract spots</div></div>
They comfirmed a few months ago they are signing struble.
Im sorry but it seems the nuance of this is going over your head
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sat. at 5:35 p.m.
Thread:
A trade that helps both sides
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Campabee</b></div><div>If we made simlirar move to the three trades you are referring to above still means we still have 47 contracts at the end and 3 free contract spots. Unless they do 1 out 2 in (which isn't normally done) then after the deadline we would have the same number of contracts or less.</div></div>
Rakel hagel eichel are some examples from last tdl of the team selling the best player ending up with more contracts it does happen.
You are also ignoring the exempt contracts. Mesar kidney roy and mailloux. The junior season ends before the nhl one does. Mesar is on kitchener who are in 8th place in their conference. His season could be done well before the nhl or ahls and we would need a contract to bring him back up.
Farrell+ struble+ mesar back up =50. So before we even consider tuch, davidson, dobes. Oh and only 3 signed nhl goalies so were 2 injuires away from not having the ability to ice a roster
Theres a reason why it has been said multiple times on the habs broadcasts thats why they werent claiming people despite all the injuries.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sat. at 2:20 p.m.
Thread:
A trade that helps both sides
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Campabee</b></div><div>Why does Montreal need to free up a contract spot exactly? We are sitting at 47 of 50 and are expected to trade some for futures (Monahan,Dadonov, Drouin). Also we have Byron's expiring after the season so that frees up an additional spot.</div></div>
Depending on the trades they will likely need to take contracts back on top of the return they get due to the cap and other teams contract constraints.
Remember last year lehkonen out but barron in
Toffoli out but pitlick in
Kulak out but lagesson in.
The team needs the extra slot to ensure they arent in a position where they either cant make a trade or sign one of their ncaa guys due to not having enough spots
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Thu. at 2:08 p.m.
Thread:
kuzer
Easy no on both from the habs
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Thu. at 12:24 p.m.
Thread:
Give Bad Contracts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lenny7</b></div><div>IMO, it'd make more sense for the Panthers to simply buy out Bob, rather than retain & move assets from their virtually non-existent pool of picks/prospects.
Sure, it only saves the Panthers $3.33 mil over 3 years (and then costs them $1.66 for 3 more), but the idea of him waiving to leave his little tax-haven seems way more far fetched.
Plus, in your situation, the Panthers actually lose cap space, and get worse.</div></div>
If they do this and buyout armia it would cost 11 million in cap vs 30. They are much better off cap wise
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Thu. at 11:37 a.m.
Thread:
Give Bad Contracts
Based on the market price for bad cap you are easily off by multiple 1st rounders
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Wed. at 3:10 p.m.
Thread:
PLD Rumor
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jonh514</b></div><div>Maybe he was betting on himself to get more money. He also had 2 years left, he was not in his final RFA season.
He already did what almost no players have done in the past 10 years once. He's not gonna do it again. The risk is too high.</div></div>
You must be Pat Brisson's burner account because you are very confident despite no evidence supporting this and by NHL standards a boatload of evidence against it.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Wed. at 3:07 p.m.
Thread:
PLD Rumor
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jonh514</b></div><div>Let's see if we can find some common ground, yeah?
If he agreed to sign in Winnipeg the absolute lowest amount he signs for is 8 x 8, agreed? So 64 million. Let's say he signs for 1 year at 6M again next offseason in order to open himself up to a signing by the Habs in 2024. Here are the possible scenarios that can happen:
1) He plays the entire season replicating/beating his career best production and signs in Montreal or elsewhere on a 7 year deal at fair market value
2) He plays the entire season but his production drops 20 points back to his 2021 totals. Now he's a UFA as a 0.75 PPG center and he gets closer to second line money by Montreal or other
3) He plays part of the season and has a season ending injury keeping him out for months and possibly requiring surgery (Just like Guhle, Slafkovsky, Caufield this season). Now he needs a new contract but he's maybe getting 1-3 years because no GM wants to lose his job signing a guy he's not sure about and it's a lot worse than Caufield because he's at least signing with the same team who was able to do all the medical evaluations before and after the surgery. So in this scenario he maybe gets 3 x 7 and probably not in Montreal anyway.
4) He has a career-ending injury. Achilles tendon, Concussion, major back or hip issue, neck/spine, eye issue. Now he can basically begin interviewing at the News networks and hopefully get a job at BPM before it implodes.
So as it turns out, you are right. I DO need to check my Math! 64 Million - 6 Million: He's betting 58 Million on the fact that he stays healthy just so he can get low-balled by the Habs. Makes perfect sense for the most respected agent in the NHL to let him do that for the 2nd consecutive season!</div></div>
1) he would get way more than 8 million
2) he would still get 8 million easily. Cap will be jumping and thats what a fringe 1st liner at his age on the ufa market would get.
3. He has 0 injury history so even a season long injury wont be a deterrent.
4. This point is just stupid because you literally can flip it to why should the habs mortgage the future for him to potentially have a career ending injury game 1 next season. It COULD happen.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Wed. at 3:00 p.m.
Thread:
PLD Rumor
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jonh514</b></div><div>The risk is major and you do yourself, PLD, his agent, and all Habs fans who disagree with you on this site a dis-service by suggesting otherwise. This is life-changing once in a lifetime money and if he really risks it to come play for the Habs it will be the biggest risk anyone ever took to play for the Canadiens.</div></div>
Then why didnt he do it last offseason and risk this season. That line of thinking is dubious at best
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
Wed. at 2:43 p.m.
Thread:
Bring back Drouin-McKannon
Habs pass they have more need for dvorak than they do for girard (they dont need girard at all)
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Wed. at 12:56 p.m.
Thread:
probably a no
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheRealisticGuy</b></div><div>Dach > Lafreniere + late 1st ?
Becj > late 2023 1st ?</div></div>
To the habs yes.
Dach while being the better player today also has a massive advantage over Lafreniere in utility. Dach has effectively shown the ability to play all 3 positions this year with the ability to be both a centre and a winger a massive upgrade.
Laf by comparison really only plays LW and hasnt shown enough to justify a top 6 spot on the RW over Jimmy Vesey or Barclay Goodrow.
Long term that utility is way more valuable especially when the other player isnt a elite winger.
For Beck I wouldnt trade him for a pick worse than 20th in this draft. What you want to see out of a higher pick in their D+1 year is address and improve the areas identified as weaknesses pre draft. For beck that was production. He has addressed that and his other skills we all already 1st round worthy. He also showed in preseason NHL level habits. To move off someone who has done so well post draft I would need a pick that gives a solid chance of the picked player being better nd anything after about 20 that likelyhood is small.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Wed. at 11:50 a.m.
Thread:
probably a no
Its a easy no from mtl.
Dach > Lafreniere
13 OA is more valuable than 22 and 28 especially to the habs
Kravstov is 23 and had waivers not been a thing wouldnt be in the NHL right now. They tried and failed to even get a 3rd last offseason and he has declined in value since
Jones at 22 cant beat out Harpur and Hajek for a NHL roster spot lol.
Ollas doesnt move the needle he wouldnt be in the habs top 3 goalie prospects.
Beck> the rest.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Wed. at 9:48 a.m.
Thread:
PLD Rumor
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jonh514</b></div><div>It's the risk of significant injury. What if he has a knee or back injury, or worse, a major concussion? He risks getting labelled as "damaged goods".</div></div>
And the habs could trade for him and he gets hit by a car on his way to the airport which means they would have traded for damaged goods.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Wed. at 9:46 a.m.
Thread:
PLD Rumor
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jonh514</b></div><div>Wanting to be a Hab and willing to risk losing 20-40 million dollars to be a Habs are 2 seperate things. He could want whatever but there is no chance he does not sign a big multi-year deal this offseason, be it with the Habs or some other organization. If the Habs want him they will need to pay the price to acquire his Wright's and the price to acquire his services.</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jonh514</b></div><div>Wanting to be a Hab and willing to risk losing 20-40 million dollars to be a Habs are 2 seperate things. He could want whatever but there is no chance he does not sign a big multi-year deal this offseason, be it with the Habs or some other organization. If the Habs want him they will need to pay the price to acquire his Wright's and the price to acquire his services.</div></div>
You might want to check you math there. His QO is 6 million. The comparable YOU gave is Fiala who got 7.875 million long term. Even if he gets more than that he would be giving up at most 3ish million dollars over a career earnings of more than 80 million dollars. 1 year to free agency and a 7 year deal then is the same term as a 8 year deal this offseason.
And you are also blatantly ignoring that the 2024 offseason is when the cap jump happens. The likelyhood of getting a bigger aav deal when the market is flush with cap is way higher then than this offseason.
The logic of him not being willing to wait another year to sign a long term deal when he literally did that this offseason lacks merit.
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