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Black61

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Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 11:07 p.m.
Thread: Dubois situation is similar to Trouba in 2019
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LIRIK</b></div><div>Pretty sure Gorton has a say in every trade.

Pionk had a 26 points season before he was traded. Advanced stats are bad because he was a young 22 years old defenseman on his 1st full NHL season. He turned out to be a decent top 4 D.

PLD is eating Suzuki this year. Not even close. I would bet he ends up being a better center than Suzuki.</div></div>

Having a say =/= being the GM. Hughes isnnt going to do it just because Jeff did it before.

https://www.timeanddate.com/date/durationresult.html?m1=07&amp;d1=29&amp;y1=1995&amp;m2=06&amp;d2=19&amp;y2=2019

Pionk turned 24 a month after the trade. He wasnt that young.

Despite being older than nick since entering the league nick has literally 1 point less than Dubois does over the same sapn while nick has elite defensive skills while Dubois has routinely been a botton 1/5th player defensively. Nick is EASILY better.
Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 10:37 p.m.
Thread: Dubois situation is similar to Trouba in 2019
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LIRIK</b></div><div>A) Gorton and Hughes are both GMs, but since it's MTL, the 'official' GM has to speak french. Gorton is president of hockey operations, but he's involved in every trades.

B) It doesn't prove he will do it again, but it shows he prefer to secure a player now instead of risking losing him on UFA market.

C) FLO 2023 1st is worth more than the 2019 20th, but Pionk was a better D than Barron. PLD will have a better career than the 11th overall, he's a 1C even better than Suzuki.

D) Trouba fell behind Adam Fox on their roster, but he's still a good defenseman. As for Dubois, i think he would love to play for MTL and would be our 1C for years.</div></div>


A) https://www.nhl.com/canadiens/team/hockey-operations

Gorton literally isnt a GM. Kent technically oesnt even report to him he reports to Molson.

B) Again thats not his decision to make. He has said multiple time Hughes has final say on personnel. Gorton is in charge of the business side of the job.

C) https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E8hKAyWXEAU1ZjT?format=jpg&amp;name=large

He wasnt. Also he was older at that point that Barron is now. Barron is worth more today than Pionk was worth then.

PLD isnt better than Suzuki that is laughable. PLD has terrible defensive metrics by most analysis he shouldnt be playing centre he so bad at it.

D) If he wants to play for the habs so bad he can wait a year and sign as a free agent and he will never be 1C for the habs while suzuki is around.
Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 9:53 p.m.
Thread: Dubois situation is similar to Trouba in 2019
A ) Gorton isnt the GM Hughes is.

B) Doing something once doesnt mean you will do it a again. It was a desperation move by the rangers then and the habs front office hasnt done anything remotely that desperate.

C) The Florida pick currently sits 11th by point percentage. The value of 11 vs 20 is a massive difference. Theres a decent chance the 11th overall pick has a better career than PLD where a 20th overall pick its much less likely.

D) With hindsight most rangers fans would likely agree the trade at best was a wash but realistically they ended up losing it. One of the consequences of the trade was giving trouba a deal he was not worth because the leverage of the situation. It will be the same situation with Dubois where you overpay a player for something hes not.
Forum: Armchair-GMSat. at 6:52 p.m.
Thread: A trade that helps both sides
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Campabee</b></div><div>I know it happens, I never said it didn't. What I said was it doesn't normally happen.

I wasn't ignoring their exempt contracts, I just assumed they were exempt until next season started, that's on me for not understanding how they work.

I don't think Davidson, Struble or Tuch get signed. Dobes and Vrbetic might (although one or both may sign an AHL level contract to end this year and an NHL contract in the summer.

I know we aren't claiming guys cause of the limit but we also don't have to take back Johnsson since Byron is expiring and LTIRetired and Fairbrother can be moved with Byron for a mid/late pick to free up 2 contract spots</div></div>

They comfirmed a few months ago they are signing struble.

Im sorry but it seems the nuance of this is going over your head
Forum: Armchair-GMSat. at 5:35 p.m.
Thread: A trade that helps both sides
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Campabee</b></div><div>If we made simlirar move to the three trades you are referring to above still means we still have 47 contracts at the end and 3 free contract spots. Unless they do 1 out 2 in (which isn't normally done) then after the deadline we would have the same number of contracts or less.</div></div>

Rakel hagel eichel are some examples from last tdl of the team selling the best player ending up with more contracts it does happen.

You are also ignoring the exempt contracts. Mesar kidney roy and mailloux. The junior season ends before the nhl one does. Mesar is on kitchener who are in 8th place in their conference. His season could be done well before the nhl or ahls and we would need a contract to bring him back up.

Farrell+ struble+ mesar back up =50. So before we even consider tuch, davidson, dobes. Oh and only 3 signed nhl goalies so were 2 injuires away from not having the ability to ice a roster

Theres a reason why it has been said multiple times on the habs broadcasts thats why they werent claiming people despite all the injuries.
Forum: Armchair-GMSat. at 2:20 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMThu. at 2:08 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMWed. at 3:07 p.m.
Thread: PLD Rumor
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jonh514</b></div><div>Let's see if we can find some common ground, yeah?

If he agreed to sign in Winnipeg the absolute lowest amount he signs for is 8 x 8, agreed? So 64 million. Let's say he signs for 1 year at 6M again next offseason in order to open himself up to a signing by the Habs in 2024. Here are the possible scenarios that can happen:

1) He plays the entire season replicating/beating his career best production and signs in Montreal or elsewhere on a 7 year deal at fair market value

2) He plays the entire season but his production drops 20 points back to his 2021 totals. Now he's a UFA as a 0.75 PPG center and he gets closer to second line money by Montreal or other

3) He plays part of the season and has a season ending injury keeping him out for months and possibly requiring surgery (Just like Guhle, Slafkovsky, Caufield this season). Now he needs a new contract but he's maybe getting 1-3 years because no GM wants to lose his job signing a guy he's not sure about and it's a lot worse than Caufield because he's at least signing with the same team who was able to do all the medical evaluations before and after the surgery. So in this scenario he maybe gets 3 x 7 and probably not in Montreal anyway.

4) He has a career-ending injury. Achilles tendon, Concussion, major back or hip issue, neck/spine, eye issue. Now he can basically begin interviewing at the News networks and hopefully get a job at BPM before it implodes.

So as it turns out, you are right. I DO need to check my Math! 64 Million - 6 Million: He's betting 58 Million on the fact that he stays healthy just so he can get low-balled by the Habs. Makes perfect sense for the most respected agent in the NHL to let him do that for the 2nd consecutive season!</div></div>

1) he would get way more than 8 million

2) he would still get 8 million easily. Cap will be jumping and thats what a fringe 1st liner at his age on the ufa market would get.

3. He has 0 injury history so even a season long injury wont be a deterrent.

4. This point is just stupid because you literally can flip it to why should the habs mortgage the future for him to potentially have a career ending injury game 1 next season. It COULD happen.
Forum: Armchair-GMWed. at 12:56 p.m.
Thread: probably a no
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheRealisticGuy</b></div><div>Dach &gt; Lafreniere + late 1st ?
Becj &gt; late 2023 1st ?</div></div>

To the habs yes.

Dach while being the better player today also has a massive advantage over Lafreniere in utility. Dach has effectively shown the ability to play all 3 positions this year with the ability to be both a centre and a winger a massive upgrade.

Laf by comparison really only plays LW and hasnt shown enough to justify a top 6 spot on the RW over Jimmy Vesey or Barclay Goodrow.

Long term that utility is way more valuable especially when the other player isnt a elite winger.


For Beck I wouldnt trade him for a pick worse than 20th in this draft. What you want to see out of a higher pick in their D+1 year is address and improve the areas identified as weaknesses pre draft. For beck that was production. He has addressed that and his other skills we all already 1st round worthy. He also showed in preseason NHL level habits. To move off someone who has done so well post draft I would need a pick that gives a solid chance of the picked player being better nd anything after about 20 that likelyhood is small.
Forum: Armchair-GMWed. at 9:46 a.m.
Thread: PLD Rumor
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jonh514</b></div><div>Wanting to be a Hab and willing to risk losing 20-40 million dollars to be a Habs are 2 seperate things. He could want whatever but there is no chance he does not sign a big multi-year deal this offseason, be it with the Habs or some other organization. If the Habs want him they will need to pay the price to acquire his Wright's and the price to acquire his services.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jonh514</b></div><div>Wanting to be a Hab and willing to risk losing 20-40 million dollars to be a Habs are 2 seperate things. He could want whatever but there is no chance he does not sign a big multi-year deal this offseason, be it with the Habs or some other organization. If the Habs want him they will need to pay the price to acquire his Wright's and the price to acquire his services.</div></div>

You might want to check you math there. His QO is 6 million. The comparable YOU gave is Fiala who got 7.875 million long term. Even if he gets more than that he would be giving up at most 3ish million dollars over a career earnings of more than 80 million dollars. 1 year to free agency and a 7 year deal then is the same term as a 8 year deal this offseason.

And you are also blatantly ignoring that the 2024 offseason is when the cap jump happens. The likelyhood of getting a bigger aav deal when the market is flush with cap is way higher then than this offseason.

The logic of him not being willing to wait another year to sign a long term deal when he literally did that this offseason lacks merit.