CD282

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Forum: Armchair-GMThu at 1:56 pm
Thread: Pittsburgh Trade Coming
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MG1986</b></div><div>Well clearly Edmonton fans are in some sort of fantasy world. Letang is a world class defender and there is absolutely the Pens wouldn't sell low on him. If Edmonton wanted him they aren't getting a deal, you are paying for an all-star and top-pairing defenseman on a decent contract with term. In no way, shape or form, should Klefbom even be remotely compared to Letang.</div></div>

Pay attention.

<a href="http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20182019&amp;thruseason=20182019&amp;stype=2&amp;sit=all&amp;score=all&amp;stdoi=oi&amp;rate=y&amp;team=ALL&amp;pos=D&amp;loc=B&amp;toi=333&amp;gpfilt=none&amp;fd=&amp;td=&amp;tgp=410&amp;lines=single" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20182019&amp;thruseason=20182019&amp;stype=2&amp;sit=all&amp;score=all&amp;stdoi=oi&amp;rate=y&amp;team=ALL&amp;pos=D&amp;loc=B&amp;toi=333&amp;gpfilt=none&amp;fd=&amp;td=&amp;tgp=410&amp;lines=single</a>
Forum: Armchair-GMThu at 8:45 am
Thread: some wings a defenseman
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>J2W</b></div><div>What you proved is that McDavid and Draisaitl are good. Nearly everyone to play along side them, especially McDavid has good numbers. </div></div>

I gave you the link, but since you'd rather argue, here is the info in plain English.

McDavid with and without Puljujarvi, 2017-18, 5v5

CF% with: 54.61
CF% w/o: 50.30

FF% with: 55.79
FF% w/o: 51.59

SF% with: 53.35
SF% w/o: 50.71

GF% with: 61.90
GF% w/o: 55.67

It's pretty clear that Puljujarvi made McDavid better.

<a href="http://naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20172018&amp;thruseason=20172018&amp;stype=2&amp;sit=5v5&amp;stdoi=oi&amp;rate=n&amp;v=t&amp;playerid=8478402" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">http://naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20172018&amp;thruseason=20172018&amp;stype=2&amp;sit=5v5&amp;stdoi=oi&amp;rate=n&amp;v=t&amp;playerid=8478402</a>


<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>J2W</b></div><div>Since you still haven't answered a question I asked several posts ago I'll ask it again, what do you think he is worth? In rough terms, so it can be applied to multiply teams. Because I doubt any team would give up a 1st, and very few would give up an established top 6 forward or top 4 D for him.</div></div>

I guess you haven't been following, but my whole point is that it would be extremely stupid for Edmonton to give up on the player at this point. I'm not entertaining offers.
Forum: Armchair-GMTue at 9:53 pm
Thread: some wings a defenseman
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>J2W</b></div><div>He can produce when being carried by skilled centres, is that what you are trying to point out? What is Puljujarvi's issue that he is not placed with McDavid or Draisaitl consistently when the entire off-season and a good portion of last season was the talk in EDM was that they needed a winger for McDavid. Instead of comparing Puljujarvi playing with McDavid and Draisaitl to players on other teams, compare him to others on his team. Are his numbers in line with other, or are they better? Something to prove that he isn't being carried, or at least is being carried less than others because McDavid carries anyone put with him.</div></div>

Look it up yourself

naturalstattrick.com

I proved that he is more effective than Pastrnak, Laine and Nylander, I don't owe you anything else.
Forum: Armchair-GMTue at 4:28 pm
Thread: some wings a defenseman
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>J2W</b></div><div>
Puljujarvi has played 1307 minutes in his career, he has been on the ice with McDavid for 363 of those, or just over 25%. The fact that he hasn't been able to secure himself a spot means he either isn't as good as you are selling him, or their is an off ice issue that is holding him back. Top end players earn their ice time.</div></div>

Look what happens when Puljujarvi DOES play with skilled centers:

[all numbers 5v5 points/60 and (TOI)]

DRAFT +1
Rantanen w/ MacKinnon: 0.00 (0:43)
Rantanen w/ Duchene: 0.00 (29:09)
Pastrnak w/ Bergeron: 1.31 (45:49)
Pastrnak w/ Krejci: 2.55 (141:15)
Nylander: NO NHL TOI
Puljujarvi w/ McDavid: 2.86 (84:01)
Puljujarvi w/ Draisaitl: 1.67 (107:28)
Laine w/ Scheifele: 3.01 (538:42)
Laine w/ Little: 1.76 (340:13)
Meier: NO NHL TOI

William Nylander and Timo Meier didn't even make the NHL, Puljujarvi’s numbers were very similar to Pastrnak's. Despite the lack of TOI, JP is producing 95% of what Laine is when both players are in the top-6.

DRAFT +2
Rantanen w/ MacKinnon: 1.66 (684:55)
Rantanen w/ Duchene: 0.86 (350:34)
Pastrnak w/ Bergeron: 1.96 (61:19)
Pastrnak w/ Krejci: 2.04 (499:06)
Nylander w/ Kadri: 0.00 (4:57)
Nylander w/ Bozak: 0.00 (1.45)
Puljujarvi w/ McDavid: 1.87 (256:57)**
Puljujarvi w/ McDavid [w/o Lucic]: 2.42 (74:34)**
Puljujarvi w/ Draisaitl: 2.37 (101:22)
Laine w/ Scheifele: 1.13 (52:55)
Laine w/ Little: 1.58 (455:13)
Meier w/ Thornton: 0.93 (64:43)
Meier with Couture: 0.00 (16:43)

Nylander is still at zero, having barely played any NHL time and not having cracked the top-6. Puljujarvi’s numbers are close to Pastrnak’s, the Boston winger is starting to separate in TOI. Rantanen, whose production is well below Puljujarvi's, is getting over 1000 minutes with skill centers! Opportunity is everything here. Laine had his 1st line ice time cut drastically on sub-par production, a fact that is under-reported. Why? Probably because he continued to get cherry PP minutes, something his compatriot never did.

DRAFT +3
Rantanen w/ MacKinnon: 2.28 (946:52)
Rantanen w/ Duchene: 0.00 (12:48)
Pastrnak w/ Bergeron: 2.22 (541:19)
Pastrnak w/ Krejci: 1.54 (429:40)
Nylander w/ Kadri: 2.17 (360:06)
Nylander w/ Matthews: 1.82 (624:42)
Puljujarvi w/ McDavid: 8.76 (6:51) ***
Puljujarvi w/ Draisaitl: 0.00 (31:58) ***
Laine w/ Scheifele: 1.97 (30:25) ***
Laine w/ Little: 0.00 (105:49) ***
Meier w/ Thornton: 1.68 (250:00)
Meier with Couture: 0.00 (85:45)

So those 1000 minutes Rantanen got in the top-6 paid off the next year, he's now scoring at a 1st line pace. Pastrnak and Nylander are doing well too. Laine's struggles are getting more pronounced, but he continues to play on the 1st PP unit (TMac: take note). NONE of these players are scoring better in draft+3 than Puljujarvi did in draft+2.

** Much of this time included Lucic on the other wing, stunting JP's numbers (and McDavid's), so I also show Puljujarvi's P/60 without Lucic
*** These numbers are from this season, so small sample size alert.
Forum: Armchair-GMTue at 4:12 pm
Thread: some wings a defenseman
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>J2W</b></div><div>His points per game put him at a sub 30 point a season player, while getting ice time beside McDavid. </div></div>

He's played all of 6 minutes with McDavid this season (5v5), and guess what? he scored! He has never been given a regular shift with McDavid this season. Check out the TOI/game in the attached link.

<a href="http://naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20182019&amp;thruseason=20182019&amp;stype=2&amp;sit=5v5&amp;score=all&amp;rate=n&amp;team=EDM&amp;view=log&amp;loc=B&amp;gpfilt=none&amp;fd=2018-10-03&amp;td=2019-04-06&amp;tgp=2000&amp;strict=incl&amp;p1=8478402&amp;p2=8479344&amp;p3=0&amp;p4=0&amp;p5=0" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">http://naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20182019&amp;thruseason=20182019&amp;stype=2&amp;sit=5v5&amp;score=all&amp;rate=n&amp;team=EDM&amp;view=log&amp;loc=B&amp;gpfilt=none&amp;fd=2018-10-03&amp;td=2019-04-06&amp;tgp=2000&amp;strict=incl&amp;p1=8478402&amp;p2=8479344&amp;p3=0&amp;p4=0&amp;p5=0</a>

He simply isn't getting the opportunities most players of his skill level get. McLellan doesn't play him on a skill line and he doesn't let him play on the first PP unit, prefering instead to play Lucic. Even Alex Chiasson, Tobias Rieder, Ty Rattie and Drake Caggiula have spent more time on the first PP unit than Puljujarvi - don't tell me that these guys are better, more skilled or more valuable than Jesse, because they just aren't.
Forum: Armchair-GMTue at 3:59 pm
Thread: some wings a defenseman
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>J2W</b></div><div>Here's those players pts/gm at the end of their 3rd NHL eligible season (Puljujarvi's current) to remove stat differences caused by different birthdays, and their pts/gm at the end of their elc's.
Puljujarvi (to date) - .26, same stat for both obviously
Ryan Johansen - .31 and .51
William Nylander - .72 and .73
Leon Draisaitl - .72, same stat for both
Filip Forsberg - .69 and .73
Mark Scheifele - .47 and .64
Mikko Rantanen - .74 and .82(currently in final year of elc)
Johnny Gaudreau - .89, same for both stats
Nikita Kucherov - .35 and .82
Alex DeBrincat -.69, same stats for both (3rd year NHL eligible, 1 additional year left on elc)
Timo Meier - .36 and .44 (currently in final year of elc)
Blake Wheeler - was in NCAA and .51
Max Domi - .64 and .61
Mathew Barzal - 1.01 and .99 (1 additional elc year remaining)
Mark Stone - 0 in 4 games and .7
Viktor Arvidsson - .54, same stat for both

As you can see Puljujarvi is not on par with any of them. Players best seasons normally come before age 25, taking on a 20 year old who looks like a potential multi season project just isn't worth multiple good assets. If they Oilers do decide to move Puljujarvi he would likely bring back another project like Ho-Sang, or he would be part of a bigger package that is added to move a pick up a round or get salary retention/allow the Oilers to make a cap dump.</div></div>

ELC's can slide for up to two years, so comparing the last year of each players ELC is stupid. You're comparing a guy who is 20 all year to guys who are up to 23, depending on their birthday and when they entered the league - not the same thing at all. Use draft year as a basis next time (draft+1, draft+2, etc.) for a better look at these players.
Forum: Armchair-GMTue at 2:17 pm
Thread: some wings a defenseman
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>J2W</b></div><div>It's Byron and a 2nd. And yes I would say that any player from that draft that is proving incapable of earning regular ice time is diminishing their value, and are unlikely to get more than a 2nd and an established player with a lower ceiling due to the increasing risk of them not being legitimate NHLers. Every team has their prospects that they are high on that don't seem to be making the leap, other teams don't line up to give up the farm for them. Guys like Puljujarvi are more valuable to their own team, even if it's only for PR reasons, than what they are worth on the trade market.</div></div>

I don't think you realize just how young these players are. Many players haven't yet proved their potential entering their 20-year-old season. Here's a short example:

Ryan Johansen - 21 points
William Nylander - 13 points
Leon Draisaitl - 9 points
Filip Forsberg - 6 points
Mark Scheifele - 1 point
Mikko Rantanen - 0 points
Johnny Gaudreau - 0 points

Then there's the guys who didn't even make the league until their 20-year-old season (or later):

Nikita Kucherov
Alex DeBrincat
Timo Meier
Blake Wheeler
Max Domi
Mathew Barzal
Mark Stone
Viktor Arvidsson

How would it look if the GM's had traded any of these guys for "Byron + a 2nd"? With Puljujarvi you can see the raw skill, he will develop. NHL GM's know this; his value is higher than you think.
Forum: Armchair-GMTue at 1:33 pm
Thread: some wings a defenseman
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>J2W</b></div><div>If Puljujarvi isn't good enough to earn ice time he isn't worth the 2nd... Puljujarvi has potential, but obviously their is something wrong... he doesn't have a large amount of value in a trade.</div></div>

Only 10 guys in his draft have more points than him. I get that this is disappointing given he was drafted 4th, but it's early days. I don't think your comments are justified - would you say the same things about Olli Juolevi, Alex Nylander, Tyson Jost or even Tage Thomson? Fans of those teams would hit the roof (justifiably so) if any of these players were traded for a 2nd round pick.

<a href="http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2016e.html" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2016e.html</a>
Forum: Armchair-GMOct 31 at 3:01 pm
Thread: Howdy Doughty 20
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Grievous</b></div><div>Doughty has averaged 12 goals and 52 points &amp; 6 PP goals and 21 PP points over the past 3 seasons. Only one Oiler dman has had more than 10 goals in the last 4 seasons. FWIW Doughty is also +55 over the last 3 seasons and had 60 pts last year. I suspect he will help the offense just a wee bit.....

I was looking at targets and there appears to be an opportunity to add a Norris-caliber defenseman here, albeit a slim one. Besides not many teams like to trade in Conference, let alone in Division, if he is even moved Toronto is much more likely.

But what about this website screams reality? The only apparent reality here is that everyone needs to shake their head, because anyone who dares to suggest a trade for a good young player or Norris-caliber defenseman must clearly be intellectually impaired, or is it just me?</div></div>

Or you could wait until summer and sign Karlsson for zero asset cost. Just sayin.

** yes, I would prefer Doughty too, but the trade cost is going to be huge and then you have the cap hit, too.
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