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CD282

Member Since
Mar 4, 2017
Forum Posts
11982
Posts per Day
8.43
Forum Threads
367
Forum: Armchair-GM19 hours ago
Thread: Top ten defensemen
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ConnorMcHellebucyk</b></div><div>Quote from Jfresh. Tried to send a picture.

“If it weren't for a lack of gaudy point totals, McAvoy would be recognized for the superstar that he is. He's a two-way defenceman in the purest sense: almost no other blueliner at his level defensively comes even close to his offensive ability. Despite the lack of box-score production, McAvoy drives goals, expected goals, and shot attempts at a high level. He led all defencemen in shooting-adjusted xGAA this season. On top of all that, McAvoy drew penalties at by far the highest rate among defenceman in the league. He does all this as the Bruins' #1 defenceman playing the 14th toughest minutes in the league, and the 5th most against top competition. He's not just an up-and-coming star, he's already there - and he deserves the 2020 Norris Trophy.“</div></div>

How much of his "defensive ability" was due to the fact that he played with one of the league's premier shutdown D last year?
Forum: Armchair-GMFri at 9:25 am
Thread: Larsson calling on Oilers fans opinions
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JmoneyTalk</b></div><div>Haha no. I actually watch the Oilers. It's 5 games in.. and he's had more then enough shining moments... Oilers need him more right now then ever until the team can get a flow going, there is no one who can replace his minutes, he has value for the Oilers just based off his pk work.. and he's blocking a ton of shots.. D make mistakes not time to trade him for "well hes been playing bad, so let's not trade him for his true overall value"</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>justaBoss</b></div><div>Statistically speaking it says a lot about how bad the Oilers are if a player with Larsson's statistics is "needed right now more than ever"</div></div>

Caleb Jones was struggling the first few games this year, since he's been in the pressbox Larsson's defensive numbers have been fine.

37:03 TOI with Jones
33:22 TOI w/o Jones

25.91 SA/60 with Jones
23.36 SA/60 w/o Jones

6.48 GA/60 with Jones
0.00 GA/60 w/o Jones

2.24 xGA/60 with Jones
1.89 xGA/60 w/o Jones

48.00 OZ FO% with Jones
30.77 OZ FO% w/o Jones

So despite having more defensive responsibilities placed on him without Jones, his defensive numbers are better.

http://naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20202021&amp;thruseason=20202021&amp;stype=2&amp;sit=5v5&amp;score=all&amp;rate=y&amp;team=EDM&amp;vteam=ALL&amp;view=wowy&amp;loc=B&amp;gpfilt=none&amp;fd=2021-01-13&amp;td=2021-05-08&amp;tgp=2000&amp;strict=incl&amp;p1=8476457&amp;p2=8478452&amp;p3=0&amp;p4=0&amp;p5=0
Forum: Armchair-GMThu at 5:25 pm
Thread: Rank these divisional young guns lines
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mhockey91</b></div><div>You’re right that elite players feed off each other, but Yams definitely hasn’t proven to be elite. Sheary lead the league in 5v5 P/60 one season and no one was running around claiming he was elite. Let’s see how Yams does over a longer sample size</div></div>

I didn't say he was as I'm not sure the definition of the word. I simply pointed out that he's getting elite results and that he's full value for them. This isn't a guy riding someone else's coattails.

How long does a guy have to post elite results for you to call him elite? Do you consider Kaprizov elite? He has 4 NHL games under his belt. What about Lafreniere? 3 NHL games and zero points. Is Jack Hughes elite? Crap results in his 1st year, only 3 games this year with elite results. How about Suzuki? Terrible scoring rates at 5v5, his totals are driven by being gifted PP time, which Yamamoto isn't. Glass? 41 NHL games at below-replacement level scoring.

I bet you think a few of these guys are elite, and they haven't even earned it. Why the double standard?
Forum: Armchair-GMThu at 4:19 pm
Thread: Rank these divisional young guns lines
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>I'm not sure what definition you guys use for "elite", but it's worth noting that since he broke into the league fulltime December 31, 2019, Yamamoto is tied for 6th in the league in 5v5 scoring with Patrick Kane. If that's not "elite" I don't know what is.

http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20192020&amp;thruseason=20202021&amp;stype=2&amp;sit=5v5&amp;score=all&amp;stdoi=std&amp;rate=n&amp;team=ALL&amp;pos=S&amp;loc=B&amp;toi=250&amp;gpfilt=gpdate&amp;fd=2019-12-31&amp;td=2021-01-21&amp;tgp=410&amp;lines=single&amp;draftteam=ALL</div></div>

A lot of people said that we shouldn't trust his sky-high scoring rates from last year (3.16 P/60, 1st on the team), but he's actually stepped that up through the first 5 games this season, posting 3.60 P/60, good for #1 on the team. That's impressive - a supposedly complimentary winger outscoring his superstar center. Frankly I'm surprised, I starting to think he's better than I (and many others) have given him credit for.
Forum: Armchair-GMThu at 4:08 pm
Thread: Rank these divisional young guns lines
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ConnorMcHellebucyk</b></div><div>Yamamoto and Kaprizov elite</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mhockey91</b></div><div>Kap might be a surprise, but no way is Yamamoto elite</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Cdn_bacon</b></div><div>Yamamoto has 1st line potential, he's already a 2nd liner for sure. Elite is probably out of reach.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ConnorMcHellebucyk</b></div><div>It was more of an exaggeration because he’s arguably the best of the bunch right now</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mhockey91</b></div><div>Best of the bunch? He’s arguably one of the lowest ranked guys</div></div>

I'm not sure what definition you guys use for "elite", but it's worth noting that since he broke into the league fulltime December 31, 2019, Yamamoto is tied for 6th in the league in 5v5 scoring with Patrick Kane. If that's not "elite" I don't know what is.

http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20192020&amp;thruseason=20202021&amp;stype=2&amp;sit=5v5&amp;score=all&amp;stdoi=std&amp;rate=n&amp;team=ALL&amp;pos=S&amp;loc=B&amp;toi=250&amp;gpfilt=gpdate&amp;fd=2019-12-31&amp;td=2021-01-21&amp;tgp=410&amp;lines=single&amp;draftteam=ALL
Forum: Armchair-GMThu at 10:34 am
Thread: mc for mack
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>Colorado adds for sure. McDavid and Draisaitl are both elite center in their own right, MacKinnon is nearly as good offensively but Rantanen is a complimentary player and has way less value than any of the other skaters here. And that's without even considering how many years these players are under contract for: McDavid (6), Draisaitl (5) vs Rantanen (5) and MacKinnon (3). In this scenario Colorado is getting the best players AND getting them for longer term.

(Neither goalie moves the dial much for me. Similar age, similar contracts, similar performance last year.)</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>Edmonton declines more swiftly IMO. McDavid and Draisaitl push their own lines, Rantanen cannot because he's a complimentary player like Nugent-Hopkins. In the past 3 seasons at 5v5:

Rantanen with MacKinnon: 3.36 GF/60 - 2.54 GA/60 = +0.82 G/60 (56.90 GF%)
Rantanen w/o MacKinnon: 1.47 GF/60 - 1.47 GA/60 = even (50.00 GF%)

Draisaitl proved last year that he could drive his own line and actually led the league in scoring in the 2nd half after being moved off McDavid's line. That 1-2 punch is far more valuable than MacKinnon and a sidekick who doesn't have much value without him.

McDavid being under team control for 6 years + Draisaitl for 5 vs just 3 for MacKinnon is a huge deal too.</div></div>

<a href="/users/BeterChiarelli" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@BeterChiarelli</a> is this fair or am I "inciting" again?
Forum: Armchair-GMThu at 10:33 am
Thread: mc for mack
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BuFfaLOFaN</b></div><div>I say, it's fair....except for McDavid having double the cap hit. Probably is made up for though because of how much better Draisaitl is than Rantenan.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xqb15</b></div><div>Draisitl career ppg 1.0 Rantanen .9ppg exactly how much better is he? The EDM trio’s cap hit is $11M more than the COL, you’re not saying Draisitl is $11M more valuable than Rantanen because that is preposterous.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TJTwolf</b></div><div>Both teams would decline anyway though I suspect Edmonton would decline less swiftly than Colorado.</div></div>

Edmonton declines more swiftly IMO. McDavid and Draisaitl push their own lines, Rantanen cannot because he's a complimentary player like Nugent-Hopkins. In the past 3 seasons at 5v5:

Rantanen with MacKinnon: 3.36 GF/60 - 2.54 GA/60 = +0.82 G/60 (56.90 GF%)
Rantanen w/o MacKinnon: 1.47 GF/60 - 1.47 GA/60 = even (50.00 GF%)

Draisaitl proved last year that he could drive his own line and actually led the league in scoring in the 2nd half after being moved off McDavid's line. That 1-2 punch is far more valuable than MacKinnon and a sidekick who doesn't have much value without him.

McDavid being under team control for 6 years + Draisaitl for 5 vs just 3 for MacKinnon is a huge deal too.
Forum: Armchair-GMThu at 9:53 am
Thread: Gibson - Thoughts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeterChiarelli</b></div><div>Rantanen is one of the up-and-coming top wingers in the league. He's not a cap dump. Quit trying to incite a reaction out of other users.</div></div>

I was simply pointing out that Rantanen is a replacement-level player without MacKinnon, and posted stats to prove it. This fact combined with his egregious $9.25M contract means he doesn't have much trade value. That was my point.

http://naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20172018&amp;thruseason=20192020&amp;stype=2&amp;sit=5v5&amp;score=all&amp;rate=y&amp;team=COL&amp;vteam=ALL&amp;view=wowy&amp;loc=B&amp;gpfilt=none&amp;fd=2021-01-13&amp;td=2021-05-08&amp;tgp=2000&amp;strict=incl&amp;p1=8478420&amp;p2=8477492&amp;p3=0&amp;p4=0&amp;p5=0

He's a very good complimentary player, but he isn't able to drive play without an elite center. There are lots of guys like this: Nugent-Hopkins was a top-5 player in the league when he was moved to Draisaitl's wing last year, if he played there 90% of the time his stats would look better than Rantanen's for sure. But he struggles to create offense when he's the #1 guy on his line, and so isn't worth $9M+ IMO.

http://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?reportType=game&amp;dateFrom=2019-12-31&amp;dateTo=2020-03-09&amp;gameType=2&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&amp;sort=points,goals,assists&amp;page=0&amp;pageSize=50

Have a nice day sir.
Forum: Armchair-GMThu at 9:37 am
Thread: MB likes his draft day moves
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Zmach</b></div><div>Ken holland would trade a first for a goalie if it was a good goalie. I think it will be tough to get one on free agency because of the reputation of having terrible defence in Edmonton. Ken holland also would take this years 1st rounder and trade down for an early second and late third. Then if he can select a goalie with that second that’s what he will do. If not he’ll probably trade down again. I’m only saying they will pick a goalie because Sebastian Cossa the Edmonton Oil kings all star goalie is slated to go mid second round.</div></div>

I could see Holland trading the 1st for later 1st and a 2nd and then using that 2nd to select a goalie, but that isn't the same thing as picking a goalie in the 1st round or trading a 1st for a goalie.

A perfectly competent goalie like Raanta will be available in free agency for a reasonable rate. Guys like Elliot, Andersen, Rinne, Dubnyk, Grubauer, Halak, Driedger and Reimer may also be available and likely can play 1A/1B effectively, and if you want to go all-in on a starter maybe Binnington makes it to free agency.
Forum: Armchair-GMWed at 5:44 pm
Thread: Gibson - Thoughts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>coga16</b></div><div>this is a continuing thing you have been doing, you have yet to admit it

This is not about him being on the ice with mcdcvid, its Drais GAR/xGAR....you like to cherry pick stats lets admit about Drai is a complete and utter defensive liability every time he steps on the ice

But you cant admit it, and a here you are again trying to take pot shots at Rantanen but bc a player on your team in Drai....cant be critical of his poor under lying numbers bc it doesnt fit your narrative</div></div>

:tearsofjoy

Still trying to deflect!

GF% rel 2019-21 to date

Draisaitl: +12.67
MacKinnon: +4.73
Rantanen: -9.49

Draisaitl has a far greater impact on his team's performance than MacKinnon does, while Rantanen has a negative effect. IDGAF about what the "underlying" numbers say if they don't correlate to the scoresheet.
Forum: Armchair-GMWed at 5:34 pm
Thread: Dylan Guenther
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Timmah007</b></div><div>I actually don’t blame anyone for those thoughts to begin creeping up. There is next to nothing to grasp onto right now. Our pp is getting outscored. Pk doesn’t look inspiring. 5-5 is a mess. Very little emotion. Mcdavid last game had 0 contributions to quality scoring chances. I’m not ready to give up but honestly hard to blame anyone for being disgusted by this effort level. I hope they turn it around fast but every game is 4 point night this hole is going to get too deep very fast in this division. Stringing together 5-6 wins has always been challenging for this team but doing it against this division isn’t something we should be counting on.</div></div>

With every game being a 4-pointer, it'll be easier to climb out of a hole than normal too. Remember that.