CSStrowbridge

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Jul. 28, 2021

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Vancouver Canucks

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Forum: NHL SigningsApr. 8 at 4:42 p.m.

Thread: Vancouver Canucks signed Spencer Martin (2 Years / $762,500 AAV)

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Canucks123</b></div><div>good deal not sure why it got 3 bad signing votes</div></div>

I know. The downvotes are confusing to me as well.

It's league minimum. Even if he stays in the AHL, this is a good deal. The one-way deal only matters if you are the owner of the Canucks.

Forum: NHL SigningsApr. 8 at 3:04 p.m.

Thread: Vancouver Canucks signed Spencer Martin (2 Years / $762,500 AAV)

His price went down. What? Sure, it's a one-way deal now, but this is still impressive.

Forum: NHL TradesMar. 21 at 7:15 p.m.

Thread: (VAN/NYR) - Motte for 4th

Definitely worth more than a 4th rounder. However, his value is in his intangibles and you can't really bargain with that.

Forum: NHL TradesMar. 21 at 2:55 p.m.

Thread: (MTL/NJD) - Hammond for Schnarr

Assuming Montreal can re-sign Schnarr, then they won this trade. If not, then nothing really changes for the team.

Forum: NHL TradesMar. 21 at 2:26 p.m.

Thread: (MTL/COL) - Lehkonen for Barron and 2024 2nd round pick

Wow. A former 1st rounder and a 2nd round for what should be a third liner. That's just too much. Montreal gets the win. And it is a one-year contract, so the cap retention won't hurt Montreal net years.

Easy win.

Forum: NHL TradesMar. 21 at 2:22 p.m.

Thread: (OTT/BOS) - Brown and cond. 7th for Senyshyn and 5th

Another trade that is injury insurance, in this case in exchange for a young prospect and moving a very late pick to a merely late pick.

Forum: NHL TradesMar. 21 at 2:19 p.m.

Thread: (PHI/NYR) - Braun for 3rd

Remember, 3rd round picks only have a 50/50 chance of playing even a single game in the NHL. So this is likely injury insurance for AHL depth.

Forum: NHL TradesMar. 21 at 2:17 p.m.

Thread: (TOR/NSH) - Biega for future considerations

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Roysboy72</b></div><div>I remember Biega... not the most productive player but he <em>can</em> serve the role of a 7/8 defenseman.</div></div>

Yep. He's injury insurance for a playoff run. Nothing more.

Forum: NHL TradesMar. 21 at 1:26 p.m.

Thread: (CHI/MIN) - Fleury for conditional 2022 2nd round pick

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Roysboy72</b></div><div>Reigning Vezina winner traded for nothing after his winning season, gets worse and then gets traded for a 2nd (possibly 1st) at the deadline. Vegas mishandled this so badly lmao</div></div>

If they miss the playoffs this year, then someone should get fired.

Forum: NHL TradesMar. 21 at 1:24 p.m.

Thread: (CHI/MIN) - Fleury for conditional 2022 2nd round pick

If it becomes a 1st round pick, then that means Minnesota did well enough that they won this trade. The only way Chicago wins this trade is if Minnesota flames out in the first round and Fleury retires / signs with a different team.

That said, they got more than they paid, so that's a win in that regard.

Forum: NHL TradesMar. 21 at 12:59 p.m.

Thread: (NSH/LAK) - Allard for Burke

This is the definition of a nothing trade. There's a 50/50 chance one of the players involved won't notice they are traded.

Forum: NHL TradesMar. 21 at 12:12 p.m.

Thread: (WPG/ARI) - Little, Smith for 4th

Arizona did this in order to reach the salary floor next season, right?

Forum: NHL TradesMar. 21 at 11:58 a.m.

Thread: (SEA/WSH) - Johansson for Sprong, 2022 4th, 2023 6th

Did Seattle just get the better player AND two picks? Granted, the 6th rounder will likely never play in the NHL, but AHL depth is important.

Forum: NHL TradesMar. 21 at 10:42 a.m.

Thread: (MIN/ARI) - McBain for 2022 2nd round pick

So Minnesota traded a former third round pick for a second. ... Not even that, the signing rights to a former third round pick for a second. They win this one.

Forum: NHL TradesMar. 21 at 10:24 a.m.

Thread: (SEA/WPG) - Appleton for 2023 4th round pick

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RawDeal</b></div><div>Does Seattle have enough players on the roster to finish the season?!
Good trade for the Jets.</div></div>

According to this site, they only have 10 forwards at the NHL level and 5 in the minors. They are going to have to call up a few people.

Forum: NHL TradesMar. 21 at 10:20 a.m.

Thread: (SEA/NSH) - Lauzon for 2022 2nd round pick

Okay, a second round pick actually means something. You have about a 70% chance of them making the NHL for at least one game and a 35% chance of playing 100 games or more. Also, "former second round pick" means something in a trade, if it looks like they might not be part of the 35%. As in, "The former second round pick just needs a change of scenery to reach their potential."

On a side note, Seattle already has 11 EXTRA picks over the next three years and I suspect they will get even more before the day is over.

Forum: NHL TradesMar. 21 at 10:15 a.m.

Thread: (PIT/WPG) - conditional 7th for Beaulieu

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hurricanes_WPG</b></div><div>Nathan Beaulieu cannot play any more games for the Jets this year.

Winnipeg wins.</div></div>

I was going to ask who would vote Winnipeg, since they basically gave away a player for nothing. Even if they get the 7th back, there's only about a 1 in 4 chance they play a single game in the NHL.

However, you do make a good point.

Forum: NHL TradesMar. 21 at 4:47 a.m.

Thread: (SEA/WPG) - Appleton for 2023 4th round pick

A 4th rounder has less than a 50% chance of playing a single game in the NHL and about a 20% chance of playing 100 or more. Maybe Ron Francis will turn out to be an above average drafter, otherwise this is a loss for Seattle.

Forum: NHL TradesMar. 20 at 5:48 p.m.

Thread: (SEA/TOR) - Giordano, Blackwell for 2x 2nd, 3rd

I'm giving the win to Toronto, but that could change if Ron Francis does well at the draft. Or it could change if Giordano gets injured and the Leafs lose in the first round again.

Forum: NHL TradesMar. 20 at 4:58 p.m.

Thread: (TOR/VAN) - Dermott for 3rd

3rd round picks only have about a 50/50 chance of playing a single game in the NHL and roughly a 1 in 4 chance of playing 100 or more games. Getting a full year of a third pair D-man for $1.5 million and giving up just a 3rd to do so. I give the slight advantage to the Canucks here. Very slight advantage.

Forum: NHL TradesMar. 20 at 4:24 p.m.

Thread: (LAK/DET) - 7th for Stecher

You are getting injury insurance for a playoff run in exchange for essentially nothing. About three quarters of 7th round picks never play in the NHL. Not a single game.

Forum: NHL TradesMar. 20 at 3:53 p.m.

Thread: (OTT/VAN) - 3rd for Hamonic

Who voted for Ottawa here? Did they misclick? Did they think the trade was the other way around, since the 3rd round pick belongs to Vancouver?

Forum: NHL TradesMar. 17 at 3:35 a.m.

Thread: (CGY/SEA) - 2nd, 3rd, 7th for Järnkrok

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AtlanticCityZack</b></div><div>Especially in the NHL, you take the proven player over the picks...how many 1st and 2nd rd guys don't pan out...let alone 3rd and beyond. I respect the patience strategy by Seattle in their first season, but Calgary getting the better player makes them the clear winners. IMO</div></div>

A second-rounder has a less than 14% chance of playing 100 or more games in the NHL. This could easily be 60th or higher, so that's probably 10% chance. The third rounded could be nearly 100th overall and the seventh rounder will likely never play in the AHL.

Forum: NHL TradesMar. 17 at 2:06 a.m.

Thread: (CGY/SEA) - 2nd, 3rd, 7th for Järnkrok

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DucharmetheDOMinator</b></div><div>He should've gotten 2nd . Now woth this return, if Lehkonen gets traded he's 10000% getting 1st + 3rd +</div></div>

It's not normal second. It is a late second. Maybe very late second. The Flames have practically guaranteed a playoff spot and will very likely win the first round. So you are looking at a pick in the late 50s. There's less than a 15% chance they will play 100 games during their entire careers.

As for the other two picks, Järnkrok will likely be retired before either of them play a game in the NHL, so giving them away for $1 million in cap space seems okay.

I think Seattle won, but it isn't that far off of a fair trade.

I just realized it's Florida's pick. I could see them getting knocked out of the first round, but they could also make it to the finals and I wouldn't be surprised. If this is 60th pick of later, then Calgary wins.

Forum: NHL TradesMar. 17 at 2:00 a.m.

Thread: (CGY/SEA) - 2nd, 3rd, 7th for Järnkrok

It's a very cheap bottom-six player for three magic beans, two of which are not even this season. I think it is a fair deal, if the Flames go deep and drop that 2nd as far back as possible. Otherwise, it is a slight overpayment, IF Seattle doesn't whiff on that second-rounder.

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