Aug. 24, 2020
2nd Favourite Team
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<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Devil</b></div><div>Wow, you rarely hear a GM being that open to the media. I do like Guerin's boldness (to an extent) but there are some things you just can't say to the media
Fiala is probably gone and will likely go for alot less than everyone thinks he will go for.</div></div>
It's not really boldness. It's just unprofessional, petty and petulant. Guerin lost his cool because he took personal offense to a simple, innocent question. Even if you're planning on trading a guy in a month, you don't drag him to the media just to "protect" another guy's honor. He very easily could have just said something to the effect of "well it doesn't necessarily have to be Dumba, we have options" or his famous go-to "you know what, we have a plan, we're going to make our decisions, and it'll either work out or it won't".
In the span of less than 15 minutes, between the Fleury/Talbot and Fiala/Dumba questioning, he proved that he's not this beacon of objectivity he claims to be, he has his favorites, he gets too emotional when pressed by the media for doing their jobs, and he's very arrogant. Anything beyond that is speculation, but believe me, I'm speculating wildly in my head.
There is a proper way to be "bold", but this was neither proper nor bold.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Wildwinswhen</b></div><div>Two different seasons. We have 13 postseason games and he vanishes</div></div>
Not going to try to convince you Fiala has been good, just gonna add a little extra context.
In 2019-20, Fiala was our best playoff player on a line with Eric Staal.
In 2020-21, Fiala played with Hartman and Johansson, so is it any wonder he didn't produce?
In 2021-22, Fiala played with Boldy and Gaudreau. Gaudreau disappeared even harder than Fiala did, and Boldy LOOKED like a rookie out there.
So we didn't learn anything new that we didn't already know. The only difference is in the playoffs we seem to shift the blame from Guerin and Evason not putting him in a position to succeed, to Fiala. Despite the fact that nothing really changed.
Looking at those seasons statistically from a team perspective, the only guys in the last three years that have outscored Fiala in the playoffs are Spurgeon and Kaprizov. Notably, Zuccarello has one single goal in his three playoff runs here, and less points than Fiala does. And he's the one attached to Kaprizov.
Fiala needs to be better going forward in the playoffs, but we as a fanbase need to stop pretending Fiala is exceedingly bad. He is constantly used as a scapegoat by media (namely Russo) and fans (especially on Twitter, yes I realize it's a cesspool). It's tired and played out.
It is not a tale of two different seasons or players. It is the same player with the same flaws we already knew about. It's not the reason we're losing. If you're looking for the reason we're losing, look at the GM who constructed this roster and the coach who's in charge of deploying it every game.
Fiala will get traded, most likely to a team that recognizes that in order to get the best out of your players, you need to give them something to work with. And he'll continue scoring in the regular season, and he'll produce in the playoffs too with a competent GM and coach.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>drmantalban</b></div><div>Did your opinion on Fiala’s return change as a result of Guerins recent interview? Or is that a non factor in your eyes?
I personally didn’t think it would have a huge impact on value, but based on your post and the earlier one from TanSor, I’m starting to wonder if I’m just being naive.</div></div>
I've long felt that Guerin wouldn't be after the type of return we as fans are. To me, if the interview confirmed one thing, it's that Guerin wants Fiala gone ASAP, has no more patience left for him, if he ever had any.
When I say I wouldn't trade Fiala without Holtz or the #7 pick or whatever top asset coming back, that's me saying if I were the GM, I'd sign him unless those pieces were on the table. I don't think Guerin was ever going to get those pieces if he traded Fiala, and as I said, with Guerin seemingly reinforcing the idea that he wants Fiala gone ASAP, this is the type of deal I expect to happen, because if Ottawa says #7 isn't on the table, that's not going to be a dealbreaker for Guerin like it would be to me.
I did some math so no one else has to.
Looking back at the last three seasons worth of data, and taking each players goals per 82 games played rates, assuming everyone on this roster plays 82 games at their average for the last three years, this team can be expected to score 252 goals next season. That would have been good enough for 16th in the league this year. Assuming the GAA doesn't change much (because we haven't improved the defense or goaltending at all) our projected goal differential is close to 0.
Obviously there's a lot of room for error with this model, because guys like Boldy should improve (though without Fiala, how much he actually does is a valid question). For the sake of simplicity, I assume injuries and regression from the top two lines will cancel out any potential improvements on these numbers from guys like Boldy, Gaudreau, Jost, Dewar.
Teams that had a roughly even goal differential this season were Los Angeles, Winnipeg, New York Islanders, Dallas. Two of them made the post-season as wild card teams, two of them missed the playoffs.