ChiHawk

Member Since
Apr 24, 2017
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Chicago Blackhawks
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Forum: Armchair-GM3 hours ago
Thread: Yupp
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>you keep trying to knock a legit study on draft picks and games played. As if the data is some sort of mythical thing.

You really just don't get the argument. Saad is little more value than a rental. He has one year of term left that's it.
You think you are getting the moon for a rental winger. You are not.

Meanwhile you are stuck in mediocrity trying to rebuild while clutching on. Take a good look at that team. That's not a retool going on. It's a straight full rebuild.
The only players there other than Kane that are being held is because no one else is trading for those huge contracts. Toews is not worth 10 million a year. If they could dump that they would.
Seabrook is also dead weight only there because they can't get rid of him.
Keith is the only other one there that might actually still be worth his value.
Everyone else is younger tending to the 25 and under catagory.

You hold Saad, a rental, and get no return. Cool. where does that leave you?
No where.
Come FA he's gone. Because why would anyone who wants to win stay with a team spinning it's wheels and going no where.</div></div>

You shared a study from 20 years ago collecting data from 30 to 20 years ago; it’s not mythological but the data is dated and that is clear as day; you just didn’t realize there are other MODERN day analysis studying recent years. I even pointed out how easy this is to do on your own by simply looking at how many 1st rounders played at least 21 games in the current season or recent seasons...you know not 30 years ago.

Saad will get a haul better then Taffoli at the TDL next season. There is absolutely ZERO reason to trade him in the off-season as his value will INCREASE at the TDL. The only way the Hawks will consider moving him at the TDL is if they are out of the playoffs, and even then, they may extend him.

Furthermore, pretty sure Saad for wants to stay in Chicago with his friends and teammates...you know why? He already had two rings and he’s playing in a top 3 if not top market. Had he not already had two rings you might be right. Clearly you haven’t or don’t know anyone who’s played pro, players hate moving and uprooting when they laid down their roots somewhere which Saad has done in Chicago.
Forum: Armchair-GM18 hours ago
Thread: Yupp
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div><a href="https://guelphstorm.com/odds-not-great-for-nhl-draft-picks" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://guelphstorm.com/odds-not-great-for-nhl-draft-picks</a>

played in at least 200 contests. 63% of first round picks played but less than 25% of second round picks survived and only 12% of third rounder selections.

I don't know why you are even arguing this.
This is one of the most well known studies out there and even it is old the numbers are most likely improved today with the amount of data that is collected on players today compared to the past.

200 games is over 2 years. It's 50+% for a career player noted as 600 games.

Please, stop making things up and making yourself look foolish.</div></div>

What’s making you look foolish is a 21 year study looking at a 10 year period between 1990 and 1991. Perhaps we should look at this Millenium no?

In the 2018 season; of all the NHL players that played a minimum of 15 games in the season, only 39% came from the 1st round of the draft and 15 games is a pretty low bar to set.

You can take take any single season and figure this out and willing to bet if you even move that to 21 games, you’d see that 39% slide down even more so.

Now if you want to get real here, assume that Saad returns a bottom 1/2 1st rounder, what do you think those odds are of landing a NHL player and moreso an impact player?

Simple deductive reasoning and common sense would allow you to see that aside from the TDL next season if the Hawks are clearly out, moving Saad for a 1st round pick makes very little sense. Like most fans, especially on here, draft picks outside the top 10 are highly overrated.
Forum: Armchair-GM24 hours ago
Thread: Yupp
Forum: Armchair-GMSun at 1:01 pm
Thread: Yupp
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>please don't tell me what I know and don't know about a player. I saw him play plenty with CBJ to know. That's just ignorant and arrogant on your part.

Also, even if CHI did make the playoffs, could you really look at this team and tell me they are a contender.
The answer is no. They would be an also made it.
Why slow the rebuild for nothing?
If they could move him for a 1st, they should.
If you puddle around with being half way in on a rebuild you end up looking like Detroit. In rebuild mode forever.
Just do it.</div></div>

He hasn’t played in Columbus now for how long? You clearly haven’t watched him the last 18 months to suggest Chicago should dump him for a 1st. Hopefully you realize that only 1/3rd of 1st round picks become NHL players. It’s ignorant of you to think Saad is only worth that gamble which tells me you don’t know his value and arrogant to continue arguing about it.

Saad is extremely important to this team if they have a chance to make the playoffs or better yet in the playoffs as Saad’s game is more playoff oriented then a lot of players and certainly a rookie.

If you also watched the Hawks enough you’d know when they are playing in sync, they are a good team as demonstrated by beating the best in the league only to falter by loosing a lot of games against lesser teams. The Hawks need a dynamic scoring winger, but are loaded with defensive prospects, loaded with bottoms 6 prospects, and goaltending is strong. The problem is a dynamic winger and you don’t solve that by giving up your best two way defensive winger.
Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 10:51 pm
Thread: Yupp
Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 6:35 pm
Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 5:54 am
Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 5:50 am
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 27 at 8:46