ChiHawk

Member Since
Apr 24, 2017
Favourite Team
Chicago Blackhawks
2nd Favourite Team
Vegas Golden Knights
Forum Posts
7689
Posts per Day
7.13
Forum Threads
611
Forum: Armchair-GM3 hours ago
Thread: Yupp
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>you keep trying to knock a legit study on draft picks and games played. As if the data is some sort of mythical thing.

You really just don't get the argument. Saad is little more value than a rental. He has one year of term left that's it.
You think you are getting the moon for a rental winger. You are not.

Meanwhile you are stuck in mediocrity trying to rebuild while clutching on. Take a good look at that team. That's not a retool going on. It's a straight full rebuild.
The only players there other than Kane that are being held is because no one else is trading for those huge contracts. Toews is not worth 10 million a year. If they could dump that they would.
Seabrook is also dead weight only there because they can't get rid of him.
Keith is the only other one there that might actually still be worth his value.
Everyone else is younger tending to the 25 and under catagory.

You hold Saad, a rental, and get no return. Cool. where does that leave you?
No where.
Come FA he's gone. Because why would anyone who wants to win stay with a team spinning it's wheels and going no where.</div></div>

You shared a study from 20 years ago collecting data from 30 to 20 years ago; it’s not mythological but the data is dated and that is clear as day; you just didn’t realize there are other MODERN day analysis studying recent years. I even pointed out how easy this is to do on your own by simply looking at how many 1st rounders played at least 21 games in the current season or recent seasons...you know not 30 years ago.

Saad will get a haul better then Taffoli at the TDL next season. There is absolutely ZERO reason to trade him in the off-season as his value will INCREASE at the TDL. The only way the Hawks will consider moving him at the TDL is if they are out of the playoffs, and even then, they may extend him.

Furthermore, pretty sure Saad for wants to stay in Chicago with his friends and teammates...you know why? He already had two rings and he’s playing in a top 3 if not top market. Had he not already had two rings you might be right. Clearly you haven’t or don’t know anyone who’s played pro, players hate moving and uprooting when they laid down their roots somewhere which Saad has done in Chicago.
Forum: Armchair-GM18 hours ago
Thread: Yupp
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div><a href="https://guelphstorm.com/odds-not-great-for-nhl-draft-picks" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://guelphstorm.com/odds-not-great-for-nhl-draft-picks</a>

played in at least 200 contests. 63% of first round picks played but less than 25% of second round picks survived and only 12% of third rounder selections.

I don't know why you are even arguing this.
This is one of the most well known studies out there and even it is old the numbers are most likely improved today with the amount of data that is collected on players today compared to the past.

200 games is over 2 years. It's 50+% for a career player noted as 600 games.

Please, stop making things up and making yourself look foolish.</div></div>

What’s making you look foolish is a 21 year study looking at a 10 year period between 1990 and 1991. Perhaps we should look at this Millenium no?

In the 2018 season; of all the NHL players that played a minimum of 15 games in the season, only 39% came from the 1st round of the draft and 15 games is a pretty low bar to set.

You can take take any single season and figure this out and willing to bet if you even move that to 21 games, you’d see that 39% slide down even more so.

Now if you want to get real here, assume that Saad returns a bottom 1/2 1st rounder, what do you think those odds are of landing a NHL player and moreso an impact player?

Simple deductive reasoning and common sense would allow you to see that aside from the TDL next season if the Hawks are clearly out, moving Saad for a 1st round pick makes very little sense. Like most fans, especially on here, draft picks outside the top 10 are highly overrated.
Forum: Armchair-GM24 hours ago
Thread: Yupp
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>He's the same player he was in CBJ lets not pretend he's not.
1st round picks actually have over a 50% chance of becoming an NHL player.

A simple look at this team would tell you the future is in guys 25 and younger. They are not going to "win now."
Stick in mediocrity forever. But if you are going to get somewhere before Kane is too old to be useful you are going to have to go all in on the rebuild instead of thinking you can patchwork it.
You got 1 year left of the guy. You act like you got 5 years control. You don't. He's most likely gone at the end of the season. If he can play for a cup, he will. He can't do that in chicago.</div></div>

You are wrong on the odds of a 1st rounder becoming a NHL player; they are roughly 30% chance that a 1st rounder becomes a full time NHL player for 1 season or more. Furthermore, those odds go down dramatically when you exclude top 10 picks. So unless you think Saad is going to pull a top 10 pick, then anyone who’d trade him for a mid 1st or late 1st in the offseason and not at the up and coming TDL (if the Hawks are out of it) has no clue what they are doing.
Forum: Armchair-GMSun at 1:01 pm
Thread: Yupp
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>please don't tell me what I know and don't know about a player. I saw him play plenty with CBJ to know. That's just ignorant and arrogant on your part.

Also, even if CHI did make the playoffs, could you really look at this team and tell me they are a contender.
The answer is no. They would be an also made it.
Why slow the rebuild for nothing?
If they could move him for a 1st, they should.
If you puddle around with being half way in on a rebuild you end up looking like Detroit. In rebuild mode forever.
Just do it.</div></div>

He hasn’t played in Columbus now for how long? You clearly haven’t watched him the last 18 months to suggest Chicago should dump him for a 1st. Hopefully you realize that only 1/3rd of 1st round picks become NHL players. It’s ignorant of you to think Saad is only worth that gamble which tells me you don’t know his value and arrogant to continue arguing about it.

Saad is extremely important to this team if they have a chance to make the playoffs or better yet in the playoffs as Saad’s game is more playoff oriented then a lot of players and certainly a rookie.

If you also watched the Hawks enough you’d know when they are playing in sync, they are a good team as demonstrated by beating the best in the league only to falter by loosing a lot of games against lesser teams. The Hawks need a dynamic scoring winger, but are loaded with defensive prospects, loaded with bottoms 6 prospects, and goaltending is strong. The problem is a dynamic winger and you don’t solve that by giving up your best two way defensive winger.
Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 10:51 pm
Thread: Yupp
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>He has more value as a rental than anything else to chicago.
By the time this team turns the corner he'll probably be gone.
On top of it, his number were not that good. They were ok, but he's got a whole career where he tops 30 goals 1 time, lets not pretend otherwise.

If this team could get a 1st for his expiring deal...bye.</div></div>

Maybe he has more value as a rental but hardly are the Blackhawks that far away from the playoffs, so I’d be willing to bet he is only moved at the TDL of the Hawks are out of the race next season.

Let’s not pretend you watch Saad enough to know. He’s a defensive power forward first and foremost and excels at that role who also happened to be on pace for 30 goals. If you don’t watch him on the ice and look at goals and points totals to evaluate him you are missing the point.
Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 6:35 pm
Thread: What would you give up for Strome
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Sagecoll</b></div><div>Weird that 1 brother gets a ton of flack for having good production next to Panarin and the other goes unscathed while basically being unable to maintain a spot in the NHL without having Debrincat and Kane at his wings.

<a href="https://ibb.co/p1nb9zj" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank"><img src="https://i.ibb.co/qDx7PsY/Screen-Shot-2020-04-04-at-5-58-03-PM.png" alt="Screen-Shot-2020-04-04-at-5-58-03-PM"></a>

I think Strome is fine, but he's really only as strong as his linemates. He didn't have that in Arizona so his production looked not great. In Chicago he's spent over 60% of his time 2 seasons in a row with Alex Debrincat and 50% of the time with Patrick Kane.

His defense is below average and his shot generation is poor. Put him with good linemates and he'll give them the puck and let them score. Put him with bad linemates and he'll give them the puck and watch them turn it over.


That being said, Saad and Kubalik are monsters. I'd hold onto them if I were you.</div></div>

Strome and Kane are not playing on the same line that much. Please respond with a link showing that KANE is 50% of the time playing next to Strome.
Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 5:54 am
Thread: Cap Stays Put
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aadoyle</b></div><div>Johnsson aint an AHLer lul he can play on anyline in the nhl and can potentially score 20 goals a season if he stays healthy. this year he was just injury prone it can happen to anyone. If he stayed healthy he would have probs had 15-20 goals even without being with matthews. As for kerfoot its his first year as center and on a new team. If he stays for next year expect better numbers from him. While I agree the trade being presented is not worth pesce we dont even know how well pesce will recover from his wrist injury and shoulder surgery. We will just have to wait and see. As for how I would fix this trade i Would Add dermott and a 2nd with conditions it becomes a 1st if pesce scores 10 goals or something.</div></div>

15 to 20 goals does not mean he can play on any line in the NHL. What it means is he's a strong 3rd liner or he can fill in a gap in the top 6.
Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 5:50 am
Thread: blackhawks modified
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jertremblay17 </b></div><div>they will not make an mithell play in the nhl this season and as far as d man line goes I believe that they are balanced with the offensive and defensive defensemens.</div></div>

You are completely lost if you think Ceci is playing ahead of Murphy; Ceci is lucky to be a #4 and really not more then a 3rd liner on half the teams in the league. Mitchell will get his shot without question, but he'll start in the AHL. Like exo said above, Seabs will never be a RHD guy and he's not a 2nd liner anymore, he's a 3rd liner. Murphy has played both sides before so you'd be better switching Seabs and Murphy but again, Ceci playing on a 1st line is a bad defensive team hands down.

Kurashev isn't going anywhere.

De Haan is not a cap dump, the hawks should be able to get a 3rd rounder if they move them but highly doubt they do. They will see how he bounces back from surgery and buyout Maatta if need be.

Hawks on D are rolling with; RIGHT SIDE: Keith, De Haan, Maatta (most like to be bought out or traded), Koekko, Carlsson LEFT SIDE: Boqvist, Murphy, Seabs, Mitchell

If the Hawks decide to move both De Haan and Maatta, which is possible, then that means Beaudin is ready to step up.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 27 at 8:46
Thread: What do Chicago fans think
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>who is this #1 defense that he played with? According to ice time stats he only played with Keith for a bit of the season (when half their team was on IR likely) and on the PK
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/frozenpool_linecombo.php?select=TD&amp;teamd=CHI&amp;games=2019-2020%3AR%3A99&amp;period=ALL&amp;situation=ALL" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/frozenpool_linecombo.php?select=TD&amp;teamd=CHI&amp;games=2019-2020%3AR%3A99&amp;period=ALL&amp;situation=ALL</a>



That was not a compliance buyout please read the rules here before posting <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout-faq">https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout-faq</a></div></div>

Murphy spent a good amount of time paired up with a cast of players and often times covering for not so good ones. Anyone who thinks Murphy is a #5 should watch a different sport.