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ChiHawk

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Apr. 24, 2017
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Chicago Blackhawks
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Forum: Armchair-GM6 hours ago
Thread: Offseason
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hurricanes73</b></div><div>As a fan of neither the hawks or the devils, the 2nd alone should be plenty fair. I’d only start adding after the 4th pick for cat. I know the hawks want a kings ransom for cat but the second pick alone is a kings ransom. Could be wright if they are lucky, slafkovsky most likely, and Cooley if they really like him. Trading this years pick for jones was awful because it makes the need for a top pick in the draft higher. Anything more than the second pick and young roster player and the devils are losing that trade. Claiming the 2nd pick plus kuokkanen isn’t enough for cat is just being delusional. I’m sure whoever is drafted at 2 and is properly developed will be better than cat within 5 years. Not to mention all the extra stuff the hawks got in this mock team.</div></div>

Proven elite 24 year old NHL players are worth more then a unproven player hands down and it’s not close.
Forum: Armchair-GMSat. at 7:10 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMFri. at 3:16 p.m.
Thread: Disgusting team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>You would never see a trade like that in NHL because the team holding the #2 pick never moves it.

Wingers are traded all the time. Even star ones. Top-2 picks have never been moved for a player in cap era. These are franchise-changing picks, ones that teams would center their rebuild around.

If any offer were made, it would be 2023 protected 1st, this years 2nd and a couple of prospects. If the #2 overall was offered, DeBrincat would be a Devil right now.</div></div>

Actually because no GM in their right mind would trade the #2OA (especially in this draft) for 24 year old Elite scoring winger...it's crazy.

Cat is a elite franchise level young player and the #2OA is only a chance at getting that.

LOL, not a chance the Hawks trade Cat for Cooley or Wright....zero chance. These guys aren't Kane or McDavid or Matthews predraft
Forum: Armchair-GMThu. at 1:01 p.m.
Thread: Very aggressive wishful thinking
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>justaBoss</b></div><div>If a 9 point difference and 20 goal difference because of playing one of the greatest playmakers of all time is the difference between elite and not elite, then yes.

We could also take in the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons to include Reinhart during his time close to the pandemic close and what he produced in Buffalo.

Debrincat = 122 games, 50 goals, 101 points
Fiala = 114 games, 43 goals, 94 points
Reinhart = 123 games, 47 goals, 90 points

And for argument's sake

Eichel = 89 games, 38 goals, 97 points, who was also traded for after this timeframe, granted a while later because of his injury situation.

If I had to choose between one of the players, yes DeBrincat is the best, but the performance/value difference is not that major, and I'd argue Debrincat had the best players to play with during this timeframe.</div></div>

What's more interesting is how similar Cat and Eichel are.

Needless to say, ask LD or McDavid who they prefer on a line with them and there answer will almost certainly be Cat. Which is also why Edmonton would probably value Cat more then the others. Also why, Chicago, unlike Minnesota or Buffalo, has zero reason to trade Cat unless it's an offer they can't refuse. It's going to take a to get Cat, it starts with a team's #1 or #2 prospect, a good young player, and a 1st rounder. In the case of Edmonton, Holloway or Broberg likely, JP or Yamamoto, the 2022 or 2023 1st to get the conversation going.
Forum: Armchair-GMThu. at 12:19 p.m.
Thread: Very aggressive wishful thinking
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>justaBoss</b></div><div>Fine, actually that Reinhart one is a fair point, his performance in Florida did not impact his trade value, but your condescending tone is completely unnecessary.

Debrincat has probably been the most complete player out of all of them in past 3-4 years, but honestly it doesn't matter that much, because what Reinhart or Fiala did in 2018 or something like that had little to no impact on what they received in trade in 2021 or 2022 respectively. And I'd argue the same applies for Debrincat as well. The more important factor for them is what they have done post-pandemic.

Ultimately this does not change my argument. Recent past production between the three is very similar, and the advantage in value DeBrincat has almost fully comes from the fact he's still under contract. He's not going to be twice as valuable as those two were in terms of trade return, I can bet almost anything for that.</div></div>

Let's look at the past 2 seasons
Fiala = 132 games, 53 goals, 125 points
Cat = 134 games, 73 goals, 134 points

And Cat is the more complete player. The advantage to Cat is he's simply a better, elite, player plus he's still under contract.
Forum: Armchair-GMThu. at 11:57 a.m.
Thread: Very aggressive wishful thinking
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>justaBoss</b></div><div>I didn't cherry pick any years, I took 2020s onwards for all of them. Yeah Debrincat posted better numbers like five years ago but it shouldn't have as big of an impact today compared to the more recent past.

You could also make an argument that Fiala and Reinhart have upgraded their play from since then but Debrincat has stayed where he was. Including his best year from quite a distant past is more cherry picking than what I did.</div></div>

You did cherry pick. How does Reinhart's past season have any implication on what his value was at the time of the trade which you are using as justification why Cat should get less? That's literally hysterical!

Cat just posted his best year based on points and goals not to mention he's a much more complete player now then he was earlier on.

You're trying to paddle up river without an oar buddy...this is a poor argument on your part
Forum: Armchair-GMThu. at 11:49 a.m.
Thread: Very aggressive wishful thinking
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>justaBoss</b></div><div>I mean all 3 of DeBrincat, Fiala and Reinhart are all known as offensive machines, and past 3 years their production is almost equal but only one of them had the luxury of playing with Kane. You make it sound like DeBrincat is head and shoulders above the two but he's not. Both Fiala and Debrincat have exactly 179 points in this timeframe with Reinhart having 172. As for goals, Debrincat has 91, Reinhart has 80 and Fiala has 76. If one of them constitutes as elite, all of them should if you ask me.

Fiala and Reinhart weren't under contract when dealt which is why I agree that Debrincat will get more than they did in a trade, but imo the value shouldn't be that massive as you and Garak have portrayed.</div></div>

Fiala and Reinhart (pre trade) did not come close to matching Cat's career numbers they don't. The body of work of a player means as much or more then just one season.

Cat = .834ppg, .435gpg
Fiala = .675ppg, .296gpg

That's not close and Cat is head and shoulders above Fiala not to mention, Cat plays both ends of the ice, in all situations (special teams, etc), and is more physical on top of it.

Regarding Reinhart, we are talking about trade values (you brought him up) and you can't use this past season as part of your analysis and then argue Cat's trade value is similar to what Reinhart's was...that's inflating values after the trade to make your argument. Reinhart's numbers this past season have no value against what he was traded for. So, prior to Reinhart being traded; .649ppg, .134gpg...way off of Cat's numbers and lower then Fiala. Sorry man, but these guys aren't as good as Cat and it's not particularly close unless you cherry pick their best year (post trade for Reinhart) and compare it to one year of Cat but that's not how player value works. Nor did they have any term on their agreements. Cat is simply worth a good chunk more then what they got in return.
Forum: Armchair-GMThu. at 11:29 a.m.
Thread: Very aggressive wishful thinking
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>justaBoss</b></div><div>"You simply don't get an elite player for two late firsts, a middle 6 winger and a good (not great prospect)."

Yeah, something tells me there's something wrong with that sentence, what with elite players certainly moving for lesser packages than this, starting from Toews, Reinhart, Fiala and even Eichel to an extent (yes I think Eichel return was better than this one but not by too much). Granted some differing circumstances definitely played a part here and there.

First round picks are not equal, that's true, but they still hold a high perceived value due to the unknown factor. Yes the 2022 first isn't as valuable because we know it's a 29th overall pick but we can't say the same for certain for the 2024 one.

I'd argue that 29th overall pick + Bourgault is about the same in value as Faber + 19th overall is. So basically we have Pulju + 2024 1st added to that return, which is in my opinion quite a lot.

If teams like NJ or OTT is handing out those offers for DeBrincat, yeah I think I agree that it will top the value in this, but that's a BIG if. Personally I don't see them doing it at all, doesn't scream to me like Fitzgerald or Dorion types of moves.

My argument is that since such a package has not been traded for a player in past 10 years, probably more than that, imo it's almost asinine to think that a RFA that is two years away from free agency would be worth MASSIVELY more than any trade in the past. For all we know Debrincat could go and pull a Dubois in 2023, and only agree to a one year deal, which is likely the specific reason why CHI is listening offers for the guy as they don't want to compromise on value by rebuilding and not offering him a position to produce at his earlier and/or potentially risk losing the leverage over him.

Can Debrincat reach an offer like Holtz+2nd overall? Maybe, but it's a risk I definitely wouldn't be willing to take nor suggest as it would become one of the highest paid prices for a player with no certain term in years.</div></div>

Fiala, again had no contract in place and he's not elite. Reinhardt elite, especially prior to the trade? You seem to be using very broad brush strokes for what is defined as elite. The one elite player you listed is Eichel and due to public display of issues with Buffalo, carrying a $10M cap hit and being trade in season, a UFA in 4 years not RFA, facing a major surgery that does not have a good long term prognosis in impact sports (see the NFL), he didn't get what he is worth and Cat is worth every bit of what Eichel got maybe more.

Again, Fiala wasn't under contract, Minnesota faced in a cap crunch, and he's simply not in the elite discussion of players like Cat.

Any big trade for Cat, let's be real, just like Fiala will include an extension...it's really that simple. That will be worked out between the three parties before a trade happens. Same thing happened with Seth Jones a year ago. It's been widely reported out of Chicago that Cat and his agent would be allowed to talk to a future team prior to a trade if Chicago feels like the return meets their expectations. Either the Devils or Ottawa will pull the trigger on a big package or you will more then likely see Cat staying in Chicago. If Edmonton wants in, then Holloway or Broberg will be the anchor piece coming back.
Forum: Armchair-GMThu. at 11:04 a.m.
Thread: Oilers 2022-23 Realistic for Holland
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GMBL</b></div><div>Probably, the packaged isn't great, went more for quantity over quality.

I wanted to see more if they Oilers could fit them under the cap, and kind of needed to keep Holloway and Broberg's ELCs for that, if not I would have had to make more trades but didn't want to do more work. I think the Oilers do have the pieces to land DeBrincat, but I just arranged things in a way that is convenient for me to sort of see the bigger picture.

Depending on what they do for goaltending and if Smith retires one of those ELCs could be replaced with a 1-2m guy.</div></div>

Therein lies the problem for acquiring Cat; it will 100% take either Broberg or Holloway as the starting piece. Throw in JP or Yamamoto and the 2023 first and that will get the conversation going.
Forum: Armchair-GMThu. at 11:00 a.m.
Thread: Very aggressive wishful thinking
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>justaBoss</b></div><div>First rounders are first rounders, who knows what will happen in 2024. Not likely that OTT was projecting the 2020 first rounder they got for Karlsson to turn into Stutzle for example.

As it stands right now this offer would stand as one of the highest payments for a player in last 10 years, and especially for a guy with no term to boot.</div></div>

"first rounders are first rounders"...LMAO that's rich! The 2022 Edmonton first rounder is garbage...nothing but a dice roll on the craps table. The 2024 is going to be another late one. You simply don't get an elite player for 2 late firsts, a middle 6 winger and good (not great) prospect. Rumor is, Devils and Hawks meeting about the #2OA and Holtz which kills this offer all day long. Ottawa also beats this offer with Pinto and (2) firsts. Cat is an elite 24 year old proven NHL player who's stock continues to rise each year in the league. He's an RFA in another year with a QO of $9M which easily is justified. Rarely do players like him become available. Fiala, who didn't even have a contract and is clearly not as good as Cat in all areas on the ice, pulled in quite a bit for no contract in place...start there.
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