DoctorBreakfast

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Forum: NHLFri at 12:00 pm
Thread: 2020 Draft Talk
I don't think Jamie Drysdale will be as sure of a thing as a lot of people are making him out to be. He's pretty much the only defenseman in the draft with an elite-level ceiling, which is going to cause him to be drafted higher than where I think he should. I see him as a 7-12 range player, but there's a good chance he could go top 5, simply because there aren't any other defensemen worth taking in the top 15. Plus the fact that he's right-handed works in his favor. He'll be a good player for sure, but I don't see him as a franchise, #1 defenseman like a Hughes or Makar. Probably more of a Torey Krug type player.

Anton Lundell is another interesting player to watch. From what I've read on him, he's a strong two-way, high-floor player that can probably make an NHL roster as early as next season or the season after. His numbers in Liiga look very impressive for a draft-year prospect, but keep in mind that he's also one of the older players in the draft class. A lot of this sounds similar to what was said about Lias Andersson in his draft year: center, impressive draft year numbers in a men's pro league, high floor, two-way player, one of the older ones in his class. Andersson was taken 7th overall, higher than most expected, and we all saw how that saga has turned out thus far. Lundell is another player that could go higher than expected, simply due to his toolkit and position. Should be interesting to watch him.
Forum: NHLMar 25 at 11:11
Forum: NHLMar 12 at 11:12
Thread: NCAA vs. AHL: Better League to Develop Top Prospects?
Teams likely feel more pressure to get their top picks into their system quicker than say a 2nd round and later guy. They feel they have more control over a player's development when he's in their own organization.

For Mittelstadt, he put up pretty good numbers for a freshman, however I remember reading some scouting reports saying that he wasn't exactly a dominant player and could've used another season in the NCAA. Buffalo apparently felt he was ready for the NHL, as noted by his 77 game rookie season. In hindsight, he should've been put in the AHL much sooner (or at least kept in the NCAA), and now his ELC is about to expire with very little to show for it.

Bellows and Wahlstrom are a bit different, in that they both had very underwhelming freshman seasons in the NCAA following their higher draft placements. Because of that--and the fact that they both play for the Islanders--the Islanders front office felt like their development would be better suited for other leagues, Bellows for the WHL and Wahlstrom for the AHL. Of course, it's hard to say if their movement was a choice made by the front offices, by the player, or both parties in concert with one another.

Long story short, it's different for each player and each team.
Forum: NHLMar 6 at 4:35
Thread: Escrow
Adding on to what krak said, it's essentially tied to league revenues.

Hockey-related revenue (HRR) is split 50-50 between the owners and the players, per the CBA. Due to the inability to know for certain how much HRR will come in for the respective fiscal year, a percentage is taken out of players' paychecks and held in 'escrow' which is basically an account that holds the money for future dispersal. Once all of the accounting for the league's fiscal year is completed, it is determined how much of that escrow money goes back to the players in order to ensure the 50-50 split. Since player salaries almost always grow at a faster rate than HRR, players will almost always lose money in the end and won't recoup a lot of the escrow payments.

If the cap grows organically (through increased revenues rather than through the NHLPA-induced escalator) escrow payments will still occur, but likely won't be as high.
Forum: NHLJan 29 at 2:39
Thread: Player value discussion - From one season to the next?
Draft pedigree, relative progression, and teammate performance has a lot to do with it too. Matt Dumba was a top 10 pick, and his offensive numbers progressed positively in each season before this one. At this time last year, it's possible that Brodin was more on the trading block just due to the fact that Dumba was having a monster year before his injury. Now, Brodin is having a great year while Dumba lags behind.

Minnesota is also believed to have a surplus of defensemen, and a shortage of scoring forwards. The looming expansion draft also could be in the back of people's minds. Does Minnesota protect all four of Suter, Spurgeon, Brodin, and Dumba? Or do they trade one of them while they can to bolster the forward group and avoid losing even more players to Seattle, a la Alex Tuch and Erik Haula (who both would be great fits on this current Minnesota team)? Suter and Spurgeon can literally not be moved--barring their own permission--so any blue line trade would likely be a choice between Brodin and Dumba. Both are in the prime of their careers, so value should be high, even with the down season Dumba is having.