F50marco

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Forum: Armchair-GMWed at 11:36 pm
Thread: Isles Match Barzal Offer Sheet
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldNYIfan</b></div><div>All reasonable points.

Look, if you want to challenge the methodology, fine; as I said previously, I get more suspicious of these valuations the lower on the chart you go. And I've espoused some opinions that, upon mature reflection and/or justified criticism, I've come to realize are simply cuckoo. But don't go around saying I'm making stuff up. That makes you look very bad when I can produce incontrovertible evidence that my contentions have a source for their authority, however questionable that authority may be. It's fine for you to opine that I shouldn't rely on this paper; it's fine for you to opine that the paper is full of beans; it's fine for you to say that no GM in his right mind would make those trades and if I think that there is, I'm nuts; but don't go around saying I'm just making stuff up.</div></div>

Holy macaroni! I felt like Neo talking to the Architect in the Matrix, reading that. :p

Jokes aside, I think the paper in question is completely missing the most important aspect of trading though. Demand and negotiation. Just because someone comes to me and offers two 4ths and a 7th, that I have to accept it as fair value..... This papers chart is a very rough framework for "expected value". Its not an exact science. Teams have been known to pay more than what the expected value would cost to get a player through trading picks. It came down to how much the GM valued the player they wanted to draft with that pick. Ultimately, this paper values shown are their their opinion, but it is just that. An opinion. If you have 31 GM's who don't have that same opinion, then that paper is as good as garbage. Vice versa if they do agree with it. Frankly there is plenty of trade history that debunks some of this papers theory as well as some that prove it. That's precisely why its just a theory.

Unfortunately we don't have the luxury of bouncing these idea off real GM's to see what they think so we have to try on each other. While a bunch of us certainly have no professional experience, the collective community knowledge of trading on this site is actually not half bad (Excluding the ones I think we can all agree are either 12 year old kids or trolls).

IMHO, I would never trade virtually any of my 2nd rounders except for <em>maybe</em> very late ones, for a two 4ths and a 7th. I still feel the % of hitting a good player is higher in one 2nd than it is in multiple later rounds. I don't feel the data can disprove my rationale, at least not yet.

Just a last tidbit, we build teams based on what we as individuals feel is "good". That definition of good is very subjective so its not necessarily wrong or right until proven otherwise. I kind of feel this paper's premise is un-provable. You either agree with it or you don't. Neither is right nor wrong. Just different perspectives on how to go about rating draft pick values. A starting point, where the middle and end is determined by other factors.

Edit: Just realized i quoted the wrong comment accidentally. Either way this was more in regards to the discussion than it was this comment quoted. Ok bedtime for me, I think.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon at 1:06 pm
Thread: Does CBJ match this
See, the Aho OS was strategic at least (In their minds). They weren't sure Dundon was willing to go that far with salary so they took a calculated risk. I think most people knew it would be matched and at the heart of it, so did MB. By not going over the top, they didn't piss off Waddell but they still tested Dundon to see how he'd react. They risked a small amount of bad blood between the two organizations for a test run OS. In the end it didn't work, Waddell is probably not even that mad and MB now knows that Dundon will probably match high salary offers like this going forward.

Truth is OS's just don't work for high priced players UNLESS we're talking McDavid/Matthews type players and the team OS is going full pin crazy with the price. The negatives that come with winning an OS almost negate winning the player in the first place that's why its so hard to win one.

The only time it works is under a perfect storm of a scenario and those are just so rare. It basically has to be what MB did but it actually works. Meaning the GM and owner were simply not willing to pay the player fair value right from the get go in turn insulting the player, the agent and player then explore other options, the league is aware of it and because everyone knows, no one was willing to give a fair value trade offer because why would you right?

Perfect storm:

A) Stubborn ownership/GM with the the RFA in question.
B) Details of bad relationship well know between the player and GM.
C) Predatory offer. Picking a team with a low salary, small market with less cashfow, team that is cap strapped a little. etc.
Forum: Armchair-GMSun at 10:14 am
Thread: It wont happen but maybe
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mr_z</b></div><div>Yet you take time to write this much.

Who f-ing care. Let people enjoy the tools this site provides.

The post is acceptable fan outlet.

You feeling the need to feel superior by making corrections is the only actual issue here.

Hope you feel better, Douche-bag.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>justaBoss</b></div><div>Salty much, huh?

I think <a href="/users/Daredevil514" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Daredevil514</a> nailed it. This site is made for discussion/critique, and he's done nothing wrong there. He critiqued the post, not the poster. There's nothing wrong with being accurate with the critique he's giving. It doesn't make him a douchebag at all.</div></div>

Agreed. Its a fine line to cross at times but I don't think he crossed it and was actually spot on with his analysis in my personal opinion.

If anything <a href="/users/mr_z" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@mr_z</a> , you are in the wrong by insulting people.. Consider this your warning.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 27 at 12:07
Thread: CBO PREDICTION GAME
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ajp_18</b></div><div>Columbus would likely buyout Wennberg if Dubinsky is perma-LTIR... that being said I’m not sure Dubinsky is and I’m not sure Columbus really needs to use it as Wennberg was playing better before his injury this season.</div></div>

Yeah I wasn't sure about this one to be honest. Similar to Seabrook with Chicago I have a hunch these guys won't be perm-LTIR forever so they will come back eventually. So these teams would be being proactive about it. If he is perma-LTIR, then I think Columbus won't but out anyone.

RE: Wennberg. Is he really that bad? I get it, he's no longer the 60 point center he was but hell even if he is a 20-30 point center, its not like he's sooooo over paid. Its not great I get it but given his age and potential, wouldn't it be better just keeping him and hoping he can get better. At the and the end of the day he is an over priced 3rd line center. Dubinsky on the other hand is 4th line material and is some cases might not even be worth playing ahead of other younger guys.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 27 at 11:41
Thread: CBO PREDICTION GAME
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>bsilk18</b></div><div>Bruh i was wwrong about Gourde, I admiteed that lol damn,
But no, I actually like Subban, since leaving the canadians system he has been able to clean up his game more which is awesome (and indicative of the canadians system). Listen, if they need him to get to the floor, and he is still decent then fine. But then why have James Neal (20+ goals) on this list, or Justin Abdelkader (who is just helping the wings hit the floor). Or why not have Frans Nielson or Darren Helm here. There are a few flaws with the requirements to be here then so that is the issue</div></div>

James Neal: despite 20 goals is a player the Oilers could live without and with other players contracts coming in like Bear, Nurse, Yamamoto, etc they'll need that extra cap. Ask any EDM fan, even if Neal is doing better than Lucic was, they'd buy him out if they could. (Assuming its a CBO so no cap penalty)

Abdelkader: Detroit doesn't need help reaching the floor if its at the cost of a player they are paying full salary to that also gives them nothing in return. They can use dead cap players like Hossa, Zetterberg, etc to help with that. Abdelkader is costing the wings a lot of money for basically just playing a 10 min 4th line position. That's not helping them. Detroit still has to pay him 10M......that's a lot of money even for these owners.

Nielsen and Helm are actually providing Detroit with better production that Abdelkader is so they make more sense to keep and plus teams will only get 1 CBO so they have to choose wisely.

There are no flaws here, you are simply not taking all factors into consideration. You clearly didn't realize about Gourde and TB so maybe Im just not wrong.....
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 27 at 11:30
Thread: CBO PREDICTION GAME
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>One of the things I find interesting about the CBO conversation is the cap aspect.

Lets say the cap went up 3 million per team. x 31 teams is 93 million in new cap space.

You look at the cap here that is being wiped out. $92,708,332

My guess is you will see a larger cap increase next year if there is a CBO than if they were to raise the cap by 3 million.
I say this because there will be a lot more cap created than this example above.

So this argument that is going around that players can expect less on a contract due to the flat cap seems kind of silly to me.</div></div>

There is simply not enough data to know if the cap will go up at all next year with many speculating that depending on how long this pandemic lasts, the cap may in fact go down as a result.

IF the cap goes down, I do believe we will see CBO's. If not and it stays flat at the minimum, I don't think their will be any CBO's given. <strong>So the above is assuming the cap goes down only.</strong>
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 27 at 11:26
Thread: CBO PREDICTION GAME
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>bsilk18</b></div><div>Fair enought, still IDK why Vlasic and Subban would be worse to buy out than Gourde. I was wrong about that but Subban should 100% be here</div></div>

You clearly haven't done an AGM for TB for next year........ I would suggest doing that to understand why Gourde is being bought out here vs Subban.

One team will be severely over the cap and one team will be severely under the cap.

This isn't a list of players being paid too much............ This is a list of players that teams would have to consider buying out based on <strong>various factors.</strong> Subban despite being overpaid is still NJ's BEST DMAN. You don't just by that out because you don't like him and he's overpaid. NJ is a worse team without Subban than with him.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 27 at 9:40
Forum: Fauteuil - DGMar 26 at 5:31
Thread: Spending money
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Sebybbq</b></div><div>The main reason Drouin isn’t in trade talk is because is stock might be at is lowest for the moment. Personally I don’t really care about race or color, i just want them to be good. If we want to acquire decent player we will need to trade one of them. And since or main concern this past two season have been that left side defense. With the merge of a suzuki we can trade Domi for immediate help on left side. Kulak and mete are just not the solution. It’s been 2 years we ride with them and it just not doiing it.</div></div>

I get that but a Habs team minus Domi but plus "X dmen" is still worse than a Habs team with Domi and "Y dman" from UFA or lesser trade from someone we can live without..

Habs are not a powerhouse scoring team. They need guys like Suzuki to come in and ADD to the Domi's of the team. Trading Domi and replacing with Suzuki means the team is back to where they were before or maybe even less since Domi is a more reliable scorer than Suzuki until proven otherwise.
Forum: Fauteuil - DGMar 26 at 12:50
Thread: Spending money
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Sebybbq</b></div><div>I can’t figure out why Mtl fan keep think that Domi value is off charted. He have been putting good number since the start of is career. He average middle 6 foward production. Getting a top shutdown defenseman in is prime is probable a good value for domi. Is value won’t land us a top left handed defenseman. The only way Domi would bring that would be a prospect who developed himself into that defenseman. I like Domi but the Domi of this season is the real Domi. A middle six forward. Getting good defenseman is a harder think then getting players like Domi.</div></div>

Last year you saw what Domi with good linemates can do. This year? Drouin got hurt early, Suzuki only started becoming better in the later half, the team overall was sucking......

I don't understand why people are assuming this is the normal Domi? This has been a less than normal year for the entire team and he still on pace for 50 points....... Imagine if only he had Suzuki for the full year and Drouin didn't get hurt?

Just with the Domi having his regular linemates he would be a 60 point scorer. All of a sudden everything changes again. Just because of 10 points???

Im not opposed to trading Domi but people are overreacting to this years production. Domi has put up an on pace 50 point season virtually playing with guys who are rookies, 3rd liners and a team that overall isn't good.

Throw on the fact that Domi can play center decently enough, can fight, stays healthy makes him 100% more valuable than a guy like Drouin for example.

People are looking at the wrong player to trade. Drouin is the guy the Habs should be moving out. Not Domi. But obviously Drouin is french so the media will slightly take his side more. Domi has come as advertised. Drouin has not. Need LHD help? Trade Drouin+ to get it and keep the guy that is actually producing and doing the things Drouin never does.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 26 at 12:06
Forum: Fauteuil - DGMar 26 at 11:58
Thread: Spending money
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Sebybbq</b></div><div>I guess i am more high on Brodin then Habs fan in general. I see Jordan harris and Alexander Romanov both making it to Nhl and a guy like Brodin would provide stability and experience for 5-6 years before they can take charge of the defense.
I don’t think that the Habs are in position to acquire a top left handed defenseman like Werenski or Provorov. The only other option i see is to offer sheet sergachev to a 8 millions deal for 5 years. Personally i posted about that a few month ago. I think that Montreal could go in that direction. Even if they don’t get him from Tampa that would put them into very difficult situation. In either way Montreal need a left handed defenseman who can play big minute. Chiarot isnt very effective in that role, he get exposed way to much. In fact Weber and Chariot haven’t been a good duo when they where use together. Weber most effective partner has been Mete.</div></div>

Chiarot was playing 23 mins a night on average. Mete never reached the twenties for long enough stretches........ Chiarot did exceptionally well for what he is capable of. HE isn't a top line dman, that's the problem. Neither is Brodin. So adding Brodin here to play 25 mins a night will expose his faults just like it would Chiarots.

Like I said, Im not opposed to adding Brodin, he would definitely help! Just not at that cost.
Forum: Fauteuil - DGMar 26 at 10:27
Thread: Spending money
I just don't get the hype over Brodin. Good dman, I'd take him on my team any day but he is not what the Habs need. If the goal is to just play someone next to Weber, Chiarot was doing just fine.

He is defensive dman who plays between 20-22 mins a night. Whoopity doo...... Nice, but nothing to go crazy about either.

He is not this 25 min a night, all situation dman thats among the Seth Jones and Ryan Ellis's of the world. Just last year Minny fans were trying to move him for a couple 2nds. Now he is worth Domi, a prospect and a 3rd? Why?

Once again, decent Dman. I'd love to have him but I don't see anything there that is elite or essential to Montreal. Heck we may even be abe to snag this guy in free agency in a years time. Why not wait? Domi is an RFA which gives us way more controll.

If the cost is Domi++, I'd rather just try to add someone in free agency whose probably not as good as Brodin but costs nothing but cap space, which the Habs will have oodles of next year even if the cap goes down.

Not too mention that if the cap goes down, some teams will have to unload some players. That will be the best time to take advantage of that situation. Overpaying for Brodin IMO makes zero sense.