Mar 20, 2019
Chapel Hill, NC
Posts per Day
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>littlejerryseinfeld</b></div><div>ok, so thats 16 million dollars, you have 4 million to sign 8 players and the league minimum is 750k</div></div>
Then you have the Expansion Draft, where Seattle is likely to accept one of Nino/Trocheck/Skjei for a draft pick/prospect. That frees up another 5 million. Again, only Svech and Hamilton are likely to cost a lot of cap space, so 9 million for 8 players is pretty doable, especially if a few of them are ELCs or ELC-like, like Cotton, Denisenko, McKeown, Lorentz, etc.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Caniac2000</b></div><div>RAPM player for player, Boston were one of the best teams in hockey. Corsi is a horrible stat to go off when comparing players across teams because Carolina have a very "shoot first ask questions later system". CorRel is actually more acurate in this scenario, although still not ideal. Looking at Boston's depth like Kuraly, Nordstrom, Wagner, they're some of the better isolated players on the bottom lines of NHL teams. They're player for player the strongest analytical team in hockey imo. They're FAR better than using Corsi stats will show you (because Cassidy runs a very tidy "only shoot to score" system)</div></div>
LOL, analytical nerds disagreeing with each other. Just another day at CapFriendly :P I'm a pretty steadfast Corsi devotee in general, mainly because I am a big believer in the idea that a shot not taken is an opportunity wasted. A team that relies on high shooting percentages like Boston or Washington requires a certain kind of sniping talent as a vehicle to make it happen. With Washington, it's Ovechkin, and with Boston, it's Pastrnak. It's a huge reason why those clubs perform well above what their analytical stats look like at first glance.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Caniac2000</b></div><div>Boston against us right now, I wouldn't be shocked if we got perfect swept. Didn't score a single goal all series. All you have to do is hush the SAT line. Their depth is some of the best in the NHL. Idk what you're looking at, but Krejci, DeBrushk, Coyle, Kase are some of the best analytical players in the NHL ll in the Bruins bottom 9. Even if our defence is healthy, Slavin cannot stop that line on his own, Pesce has played like a garbage can analytically this year, Edmundson is a balck hole, Skjei, Vatanen and Gardiner are OFD. TvR and Fleury are no help, and Dougie is a defensive aid occassionally. He's not gonna be there consistently. We'd get absolutely destroyed and you'd know that.</div></div>
Look at how many guys on their team are below 50% even-strength Corsi. The Canes only had one guy like that all year, and that was Brian Gibbons, an AHLer. Don't get caught up by CorRel, because it makes some of the guys on our club look far worse analytically than they actually are. All of those guys that you mentioned, like Coyle, Debrusk, Kase, and Krejci are excellent players, I agree. I'm specifically talking about the guys in their support cast. Again, my optimism for the Canes' chances are backed up by direct evidence. They just need the shooting percentages to go up relative to the regular season. Not only am I high on the Canes making a deep run, but also Vegas for the exact same reasons. In fact, I have Vegas as my personal dark-horse prediction for this season's Cup winner.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Caniac2000</b></div><div>If they're all in slumps, then they might as well not be there. If they're not being useful, we don't have them to rely on. Every team ices 12 forwards, and ours were just as meh as anyones (Outside of SAT and Necas) When none of your forwards in the bottom 9 reach he 40 point mark, we have no depth. We're not capable of giving the Bruins a close series. They have far better depth, defence and goaltending. It'd be even more of a landslide this year because they took another step forward</div></div>
What is "more of a landslide" than getting swept? Come on, you know better than that. The Hurricanes are one of the best possession clubs in hockey, in line with a club like Vegas, while the Bruins are middling in that regard outside of their top line. The Bruins are a club that is essentially saved by their elite top end guys. Analytically, they have a middling 3rd line and one of the worst 4th lines in the NHL. A fully healthy defense, which is looking more and more possible if the playoffs start in August, would go a long way towards keeping the Marchand/Bergeron/Pastrnak monstrosity from inflicting too much damage. The goal, at that point, is to figure out how to finally get that shooting percentage up to where it needs to be. The Flyers are built in a very similar way; amazing top-end, not that great at the middle and bottom.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Caniac2000</b></div><div>Bruins have an older core, but guys like DeBrusk, McAvoy, Carlo, etc are young enough to power them past a team that doesn't have depth like Carolina. Philadelphia's core has playoff experience, see Voracek, Giroux, Niskanen, etc. Philadelphia again have the depth to murder a team like Carolina</div></div>
I disagree; a lot of our depth guys had some pretty extended slumps relative to their usual years, and the playoffs would act as sort of a reset for everybody. I see a team like us being fully capable of giving the Bruins a 7-game series now. Not saying that it will happen, but I don't think that we'll be murdered like last time around. And again, I don't see Philly going on a deep run yet, unless Carter Hart goes Super Saiyan, which is, of course, very possible. My personal fear is Tampa Bay, for the reasons that I stated above.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Caniac2000</b></div><div>We can beat system teams, like NYI, or we can beat older teams, like WSH. But a high-end deep, young team like the Bruins, or Lightning, or Philadelphia will murder us. We have a very nice core and we 100% will be contenders, but we're not there yet</div></div>
Bruins are on the older side, as well, outside of Pasta and McAvoy. Again, I think that our youngsters have learned a lot from the last time that they got swept by the Bruins. Philly's core has very little playoff experience outside of Giroux, so it's very possible that they choke against a club with prior experience with a deep run. The only team that I would be afraid of is Tampa, because I see them being incredibly hungry this year to not be known as among the worst chokers of all-time.