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JTBF81

Member Since
Jul 23, 2019
Favourite Team
Tampa Bay Lightning
2nd Favourite Team
Colorado Avalanche
Forum Posts
661
Posts per Day
1.22
Forum Threads
31
Forum: Armchair-GMJan 7 at 11:21
Thread: Next Year
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Florida_Man_Maroon</b></div><div>I would hate to pay a draft pick for Palat to leave</div></div>

Tampa won’t pay to move Palat. If he is traded after this year, he will have value. Ideally, Johnson rebounds this year to 18-19 form and Tampa moves him with less of a sweetener, or even decides to keep him. I still think they’ll either trade or work a deal to have Seattle take Johnson, but there is a possibility McDonagh could be the player taken depending how much F depth Tampa wants to part with. If the Coleman-Gourde-Goodrow line continues to excel and both Coleman and Goodrow want to stay, then it seems likely JBB will make re-signing them a priority. Doing some math for next year, it seems Tampa could likely lose McD+Johnson and probably keep everyone else in a 22 player roster(at least 21), or they keep McD and lose Johnson + Killorn/Palat+ one of Goodrow or Coleman. I guess it depends how some of the younger players such as Volkov, Stephens, Barre-Boulet and Joseph look. If some of these guys appear capable of stepping into these roles, then I think Tampa will shed the extra forwards. If not, I could see Tampa working with Seattle to have them take McD and then trading just Johnson or Palat depending on how the team views the next 3-5 years.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec 30, 2020 at 1:26
Thread: probable cup champs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>wabit</b></div><div>The Playoffs are different than the regular season. I still think TB is a good team, but they aren't a great team like they iced last year. CAR, CBJ, DAL, and NSH are also good but not great teams. FLA could play spoiler. CHI is a dumpster fire without Dach and Toews.

This is the Canada or West Divisions where they would be a lock.</div></div>

Tampa is still a great team even without Kucherov. They may be top 4 or 5 without him instead of 1 or 2 with him, but they are still easily the best team in their division. Losing Coburn and Paquette are minimal losses, as Coburn was at best a #7 and Paquette was a 4th line C(albeit a solid one). With Kucherov back for the playoffs Tampa would have a pretty good chance at a repeat, at least as much as any team's % of winning, which isn't that high even for the best teams.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec 29, 2020 at 6:35
Thread: TB next year
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bolts_Fan_Dan</b></div><div>Or they can load a 1,5 and Ben Thomas to convince Kraken to take Johnson similar to the 2,5 and 2 year prior 7th round pick Nikita Gusev to get VGK to Take Garrison. Johnson much better and from Seattle. Local Stanley Cup champ comes home help build the team.</div></div>

Agreed, they'll make a deal with Seattle just like they, and many other teams, did with Vegas. Whether it's to have Seattle take Johnson or McD is another question. I think a lot depends on if Coleman and Goodrow want to stay in Tampa after this year. If they do, I think it'll take 4.5-5 million to keep both(~3.5 aav for Coleman, ~1.5 aav for Goodrow). If McD and Johnson are both moved, Tampa could end up making something work like:
Palat-Point-Kuch(21.55)
Killorn-Cirelli-Stamkos(17.75)
Goodrow-Gourde-Coleman(10.167)
Volkov-Stephens-Maroon(2.337)

Hedman-Rutta(9.175)
Sergachev-Cernak(7.795)
Low cost 3LD-Foote(1.8)
Schenn(.8)

Vasi(9.5)
Back up(1)
Tampa makes a 21 player roster work at 81.074 million. There's a little room to work with a couple contracts if needed. Tampa could choose to keep McD, but that likely will cause Tampa to lose 3 F's, 2 of Palat, Johnson, Killorn and Gourde through the draft/trade, plus likely not having the space to sign Coleman(provided he wants to stay). In the above roster, Tampa could squeeze the 13th F in with a little work on other contracts, likely either being Joseph or Barre-Boulet.

Edit: I forgot to add Schenn and his 700 or 800k, wo Tampa would be ~300k over the 81.5, but that's nothing that Brisebois and his team couldn't figure out.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec 17, 2020 at 9:18
Thread: Bite the reality bullet Tampa
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jim_Benning_Almost</b></div><div>Ok I just Googled "Teams Tyler Johnson agreed to be traded to". The most common thing I get is that TJ cleared waivers, which means that other teams could have him for NOTHING!!! Yet nobody took him. One article said that TJ's camp gave "7 or 8 teams he would agree to be traded to", although it didn't mention if any of those teams (a) have cap space, or (b) can afford him. You're making comments that sound like facts, but they aren't facts. The closer Brisebois gets to having to finalize his cap compliant roster, the more other GMs are going to bend him over. HARD.

Of course Tampa doesn't want to move Point. Of course Brisebois is going to say he's untouchable. That's how you negotiate. Here are the facts (not ACGM opinions):
- Tampa is $1.9M over the cap
- Tampa only has 19 players signed, they need 20
- Once they sign a $700k player to meet the minimum, they'll be $2.6M over the cap and needing to trade a player with a $3.3M cap hit because they'll need a $700k player to replace him.
- And then there's Cirelli and Cernak out there who will cost $6 - $7M and open up all sorts of other cap problems for Tampa.
- And one more time....Florida is a zero tax state, and 20/21 &amp; 21/22 will be flat cap, double escrow...which player wants to waive their NTC/NMC to earn less money on a team that might be able to afford them? Hmmmmm....</div></div>

Your delusions over Tampa getting gutted are quite something, I'll give you that. Johnson agreed to 5 teams initially, Brisebois then put him on waivers and nobody claimed him since the interested teams knew they could get him with an add on. TJ has since agreed to a trade to one of 8 teams, and of course those teams won't be listed, as they hardly ever are. And all you are poating are laughable trade scenarios involving someone Brisebois will never trade and the same old stats that we all know regarding Tampa's financials. I hope you didnt bet a ton on Tampa moving Point because you're going to be out all of it.

Again, as soon as the NHL officially announces a start date, more moves will start to get made as then teams will have an actual reason to do so. Tampa has absolutely no reason to pull the trigger on any trade that may or may not be on the table involving Johnson and/or Killorn until the season is a go.

To be clear, all you are doing is assuming there are no deals or options to move Johnson and Killorn and wishfully thinking of worst case for Tampa. So you can post all the facts that everyone already knows, it doesn't change anything regarding any deals or negotiations Brisebois has going on for Johnaon and Killorn. You're no longer worth dealing with, but when Tampa keeps Point, Cirelli and Cernak I'm sure it'll either be crickets from you or just the usual whining from fans like yourself.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec 16, 2020 at 7:06
Thread: Bite the reality bullet Tampa
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jim_Benning_Almost</b></div><div>Again, I completely agree with you on things that can be done from TAMPA'S point of view. However teams are facing the prospect of zero fans in the stands, and a flat cap for 21-22, and potentially 22-23. Taking on long term spending will be a very very very hard decision for teams who don't have the money that Toronto, NYR or Montreal has (and these three don't have cap space). If this was a transaction that only took Tampa into consideration, then it's easy and doesn't include Point.

But here we are, 4 weeks from puck drop on the season, Tampa sits $1.9M over the cap, they need to spend $6 - $7M to sign two young studs, other certain players hold all the cards if they want to be traded - flat cap, declining hockey related revenue, growing escrow percentages, and Tampa in in Florida, a zero personal income tax state. I wouldn't make the assumption that any player has agreed to waive his NTC or NMC in this new reality. Player agents know how to use a calculator.</div></div>

Sure, except Johnson and Killorn are both moveable(Johnson has agreed to 8 or 9 teams and Killorn has close to half the league as an option), and Brisebois will find a deal involving them. Trading a top 10 C in the game is not on the table, period. Tampa is interested in staying a top 3 contender for quite a few years, so moving any of the 4 untouchable guys simply won't be happening. Once an actual start date is announced, trades will begin to happen quickly. It makes no sense for Brisebois to make trades as of yet without a season start confirmed.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec 15, 2020 at 9:18
Forum: Armchair-GMDec 15, 2020 at 6:46
Thread: Bite the reality bullet Tampa
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jim_Benning_Almost</b></div><div>It absolutely does, but here is Tampa's reality. They're currently $1.9M over the cap and only have 19 contracts signed. Cirelli and Cernak are still out there, likely going to cost $7M between the two. So Tampa needs to find a net savings of approximately $9M. Their key players all control their own future. A flat cap, double escrow and 56 game season means that players will financially suffer this year and next, and Florida is a zero income tax state. No player will be excited about being traded to a state where they'll have to pay. In addition, several other teams have an internal cap, and accepting a cap dump from Tampa may not be in the cards even if they wanted the players. So here's the question:
WHAT HAPPENS IF NO TAMPA PLAYER AGREES TO WAIVE THEIR NMC/NTC?

Stamkos - NMC
Kucherov - NMC
Hedman - NMC
McDonagh - Full NTC
Coburn - Full NTC
Palat - Full NTC
Gourde - Full NTC
Johnson - Full NTC
Maroon - Full NTC
Killorn - Modified NTC (can select 16 teams he won't be traded to)

Now, if ALL of the above players say no, and Killorn includes on his no-trade list, the 5 or 6 teams who can afford him (and there are only about 5 or 6), then here's who Tampa has left:
Point - $6.75M
Coleman - $1.8M
Paquette - $1.6M
Sergachev - $4.8M
Vasilevskiy - $9.5M
Cirelli - RFA
Cernak - RFA

I'm not suggesting it's ideal by any means, and I'm certainly not suggesting that Tampa wants to do this. If the NHL drops the puck January 13th, they have 4 weeks to pull off a deal and every team in the NHL who has cap space knows they can be predatory.

It may seem far fetched, but it's a potential reality.</div></div>

No, it's really not any kind of reality where Tampa trades any of Point, Kucherov, Hedman or Vasilevskiy. Killorn will be traded and Johnson has already said he'd agree to waive for one of 8 teams if a deal could be reached. Tampa will add the pick and prospect (probably their 1st and one of Alnefelt, Raddysh or Katchouk) in a trade involving Johnson and possibly Killorn. Paquette won't be hard to move either if the space is needed. Cirelli and Cernak should be closer to 6(ppl who know Tampa's history of contracts knows Cirelli should be in the 4 range and Cernak in the 2 or just above, especially after the Myers deal), and Tampa gets to start with either a 21 or 22 player roster. There are many different options for Brisebois to explore, but moving Point is 100% not happening.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec 8, 2020 at 7:59
Forum: Armchair-GMDec 7, 2020 at 11:01
Thread: Cernak to OTT idea
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sensibleguy</b></div><div>No, Seattle isn’t taking any of those contracts, that’s a child’s opinion of the world, all sunshine and rainbows. Btw, you liking the way no sounds at the beginning of a response? I gave the most realistic scenario, and if you don’t like it, too bad. Next time you want to have a conversation, try a more relaxed response to a specific comment, and don’t start with no. Disregarding my comments about it, and then trying to defend your comments didn’t sit too well with me either, as you may be able to tell.</div></div>
Oh, and great for Tampa if Seattle doesn’t take McD, as after they protect the other 4 defenseman, Tampa will continue to have one of the best d corps in the game. If Seattle doesn’t want one of Palat or Gourde if they’re made available, that’s fine, they both have good roles in Tampa. And you assuming that Tampa couldn’t make a deal for Seattle to take one of them, when Vegas made many with teams to take certain players or not take certain players, is just ignoring reality and history. Since the Seattle draft will have the same rules, more than a few deals will get made, and any of McD, Gourde or Palat would be solid or better players for Seattle to start with in addition to any possible picks/prospects they could acquire.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec 7, 2020 at 10:49
Thread: Cernak to OTT idea
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sensibleguy</b></div><div>No, Seattle isn’t taking any of those contracts, that’s a child’s opinion of the world, all sunshine and rainbows. Btw, you liking the way no sounds at the beginning of a response? I gave the most realistic scenario, and if you don’t like it, too bad. Next time you want to have a conversation, try a more relaxed response to a specific comment, and don’t start with no. Disregarding my comments about it, and then trying to defend your comments didn’t sit too well with me either, as you may be able to tell.</div></div>

No, you gave a usual biased against Tampa scenario where either you simply didn’t regard the rules of the expansion or clearly didn’t know Tampa’s situation. This was after you obnoxiously acted like you knew the real scenario for Tampa after a fan said they’ wouldn’t be trading Cernak, and especially not for the offer in this proposal. I could honestly care less what you think about my comment, as it’s obvious you don’t know Tampa very well and too bad if you didn’t like being corrected. Maybe next time don’t offer a very unrealistic situation. Please continue with your crystal ball though when saying Seattle won’t take this or that player. Most Tampa fans have thoroughly enjoyed over the years being told how Tampa can’t make the cap work, can’t keep so and so, this is definitely happening, worst case scenario for Tampa etc. It just makes it funnier when ppl like you continue to be wrong about them. You want to keep making these statements that Tampa has to do this or this will happen, others will easily counter with why it’s more than unlikely to happen.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec 7, 2020 at 9:54
Thread: Cernak to OTT idea
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sensibleguy</b></div><div>No, always a good way to start a response. ABB it is, thank you</div></div>

You posted something entirely incorrect to how Tampa would handle the draft given the specific situation you presented, so I provided the more realistic view. ABB Is also very unlikely to leave, although there is a slim chance. Most likely Tampa will make a deal to have Seattle take one of Gourde, McD or Palat, as at least one of them is gone after next season one way or the other. Much will depend on the Coleman and Goodrow situation and if they want to stay in Tampa past next year. ABB is very likely to have a chance at a middle 6 shot this year and then, if he shows the ability in Tampa, will likely take a more extensive role beginning the year after.