Jul 23, 2019
Tampa Bay Lightning
2nd Favourite Team
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<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ithinkimrational</b></div><div>Those Sergachev and Cirelli contracts are light. You can hope.</div></div>
Not light at all. Tampa bridges their rfa's, and these numbers are very much in line. Cirelli won't be getting much more than any of Killorn, Johnson or Palat took in terms of cap % on their bridges, which was just under 5%. Cirelli may get just over 4, but 4.25 would be the high end.
Sergachev at 4.5 is also very reasonable. It's in the same range as his closest comparables, McAvoy and Werenski, took on their bridges. Tampa rfa's have also taken slightly less historically, so 4.5 compared to 4.9 or 5 is hardly out of the question. Adding in the flat cap, which will likely result in many rfa's and ufas taking less money and/or shorter deals, only further strengthens Tampa's position with them. Finally, both players know how the structure works in Tampa with elc-bridge-long term deal. Both are much more likely to continue this as it keeps a top 5 team together and competing for Cups for awhile. There's a lot of precedent in Tampa with this situation, so yeah, not really light at all with their numbers. Tampa isn't losing either, but could end up losing Cernak depending on different factors.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RoyalBlueSabres</b></div><div>considering we had this debate for the past 4 days all I can say is I can't wait to see what happens with this kid cause a top 10 pick in this draft is worth way more than a 1st and 3rd in next year's draft.</div></div>
In a vacuum, sure it is. For teams that are rebuilding and/or are still a few years away, which Buffalo is, the potential that the pick holds is very valuable. For a team like Tampa who is in the middle of their Cup window, the pick doesn't have that value in exchange for a proven and only getting better commodity. Cirelli is already the 2C on one of the top 5 teams in the league and will be getting a good raise for a short term bridge. He knows the situation regarding the flat cap and Covid, and he is well aware of Tampa's cap situation and how their system works with rfa deals. So sure, he could leave this team for an extra million or two(less bc of taxes) and go to a team that has little chance of winning a championship in the next 3 years, has far worse weather etc., or be could stay in Tampa where he is pretty happy from all reports and still get a raise of around 5x what he is currently making, while betting on himself that in 3 years, it will be even better financially speaking and he may have his name on the Cup by then.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dca919</b></div><div>so just straight up: 5 years x 5.25M for (so 4 years of control on a reasonable contract. Improving every year. Coming off 47 points and one of the few that showed up with grit in the Lightnings playoff series) gets traded for a 3rd that year and a lottery-protected 1st rounder (so figure 16-17 at best) the following year on a team that is moving through it's rebuild and up in the standings each of the past years..less than offer sheet compensation as no draft protection on those...again pennies on the dollar...I am sure it's standard protocol to trade young guns that are improving on reasonable contracts...happens all the time.
Killorn has a 16 no trade clause which means all he has to do is list the 16 teams with cap room and he gets a full NTC basically and still leaves room to block Winnipeg.
Go to Tampa's team page and tell me what is 20-21's projected cap space, roster size:
PROJECTED CAP SPACE $5,333,334
ROSTER SIZE 15
Now go to the buyout page use next offseason by selecting after July 1st and calculate for: Gourde (the highest contract gives you the most savings): tell me if you get anything different than $2,453,333
Now use your bs number for Serg: 4.5M
It's simple.....<strong>your argument boils down to we can easily get player X to waive his NTC and move to one of the very few handful of teams with the cap room to take him in a tax disadvantaged state (almost all of which won't be competing for the Cup next year) during a global pandemic</strong>. Before the cap wasn't going to stagnate for a couple years. It's foolish to say because this happened in the past it will happen today given the mitigating factors. There was a reason these guys got these NTC's.<strong>
Johnson could lose huge in taxes by being traded </strong>over the course of rest of his contract so I wouldn't be so sure he's willing to say oh pick me. For example, he loses approx (because it only uses '19-'20 numbers and his salary isn't stagnant <strong>$691,179 per year in Ottawa</strong>,<strong> $381,370 in Buffalo</strong> per year,<strong> $242,762 in Detroit</strong> per year, <strong>$199,847 in Denver</strong> per year, <strong>$403,486 in New Jersey</strong> per yr, <strong>$617,394 in LA</strong> per yr, <strong>$316,584 in Columbus</strong>s per yr, and<strong> $688,794 in Montreal</strong>.
Check it out for yourself: <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/income-tax-calculator/tyler-johnson">https://www.capfriendly.com/income-tax-calculator/tyler-johnson</a>
You try to cut $2.765M (worst case Ottawa taxes lost x4 years) of his remaining 17.75M salary and watch the NTC exercised.
but I know buyouts...Tampa's owner is already paying $1.761M for Lecavalier and now you want to add another 5.4M (will need 2 guys as I've proven). Good luck with that one too.
Painful player losses are coming...not the junk you're peddling.</div></div>
Lol, Miller was getting buroesnon the 3rd and 3th lines here, wasn't improving, and was a playoff dud. You are.delusuonal with your justification. He had potential and for brief stretches looked good when in the top 6. He didn't bring it consistently here and was item in Coopwrs doghouse. I wanted to keep him but he was not going to be used correctly and that hia.numbera were much more likely to stagnate here. Who gives a **** about his team control or contract numbers if that was going to be the case. OS compensation, lol, what OS compensation when he was already signed for 4 more years and would have been a ufa after(and no, Tampa never planned on not re-signing him when they made the trade for him and McD.) Tampa had to make a choice between moving him or Gourde last offseason, and the team chose to move the player that brought them a better return and was, for right or wrong, less liked by Cooper and JBB. It's great that Miller is having a career year for Vancouver, he was never going to get that opportunity here and his trade value would've only decreased. Funny that when the trade was made at the draft, on nearly every site I went on, the consent uh s was about 90% that Tampa got an great deal for him but now you have spoken and it wasnpennieanon the dollar lol sure.
Again those of us that understand Tampa have heard this laughable nonsense before. Detractors like yourself have been wrong for 5 years and then when Tampa figures it out without losing big pieces, whine about taxes and how unfair it is. Serg at 4.5 on a bridge is not a bs number, as his comparables took 4.9 and 5. Tampa rfa's traditionally take a little less, so 4.5x3 is far from unreasonable. Johnson and Gourde would he taxed heavier elsewhere, sure, and yet they are still making a great deal of money and would have a greater role on their new team. Tampa will likely take a lesser return than usual for either because they can be selective, but that's the trade off to clear the cap space. You assume none will waive when that scenario is far from uncommon. Johnson is as good as gone after next year, so he can either work with the team now for a destination he prefera or list 20 teams next year. Regarding Killorn, you've just spouted the same nonsense we've heard from so.many others, oh no, Tampa only has 14 teams to work with, yeah, Killorn will easily get traded(perhaps not for a huge haul, but if 2 teams want him and are willing to battle, who knows?) Again, if Johnson/Gourde won't waive, then Tampa will buy one of them out.
Speaking of buyouts, Lecavalier's and Carle's(after this season) buyouts are over and Tampa would need to buy out one of the ~5million contracts to make the roster work. If the buyout is the way they have to go, Gourde saves more initially but either Jihnson or Gourde could be selected. In any case, my lineup or something similar still works. This scenario, as I mentioned, very likely necessitates the trade of Cernak. It's still far more likely that one of Johnson or Gourde(probably Johnson) waives and works with Tampa to go somewhere he wants to go, even if it means sacrificing on the return. Tampa won't be experiencing any painful losses, just more wishful delusions that we've heard for 5 years from pouty rival fans. Good luck with that! I'm done discussing it with you as well, so while no doubt you'll post some rambling reply, it'll mean nothing to me.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dca919</b></div><div>4 years x 5.25M for 27 goals 45 assists (72 pts) in 69 games plus Nolan Foote (2nd/3rd line winger) going one way.....Blake Coleman (1 assist in 9 games 1 more year @1.8M but is a 2 way player), Marek Mazanec (not in TB’s plans moving forward only included to keep Van from going over contract limit), and # 71 - Hugo Alnefelt (goalie projected to be solid backup/possible NHL starter but not even in NA rinks yet)
....yeah pennies on the dollar
Gourde's was a terrible contract. Vasi's was a terrible contract given the team's cap issue already. Point's contract kicked the can down the road on a short term deal that was fair to both sides.
Buyout one equaling affording Serg and Cirelli? ...think again. Buying out a contract doesn't spread out the payments evenly.
Gourde's buyout ($2,713,333M next year, $513,333 yr 2, $2,713,333 yr 3, $1,713,333 yr 4 & 5, $1,646,667 yrs 6-10) only $2,453,333 savings next year minus the replacement cost
Johnson buyout ( $2,729,167M next year, $979,167 yr 2, $2,729,167 yr 3, $1,729,167 yr 4, $1,479,167 yrs 5-8) only $2,270,833 savings next year minus the replacement cost
Palat buyout ($3,312,500M next year, $1,457,500 yr 2-4) savings only $1,987,500 next year minus the replacement cost.
Current cap space $5,333,334 (15 players signed) + 2.4533M savings (now 14 players) = 7.7867M -4.5M (Serg makes 15 players) = 3.2867M left to sign Anthony Cirelli and 7 other players....including Cernak.</strong>
You just proved my point that Tampa fans don't understand the situation by thinking you just have to get rid of one player by buyout when they say no to waiving the NTC's.[/
Nice try spinning the Miller deal after the fact lol. The trade was for a 1st and 3rd at the time, so the trade was far from for pennies on the dollar lol. Tampa would very gladly take the same for Killorn and one of Johnson, Gourde or Palat. Gourde’s contract was and is still fine, you probably see his stats and assume, like so many others, that his contract is horrible. Vas’s has the worst of the 3 you mentioned, but Tampa has their goaltending solved for the better part of a decade barring injury, so they’ll take it. Your numbers are laughable regarding Tampa’s cap. You seem to assume Tampa won’t convince a guy to waive when they have before and their are reasons for a player like Johnson or Gourde to want to do so. Johnson is the most likely case as he can be very selective where he goes now vs risking 20 locations after 1 more year in Tampa. He has made plenty of money and has seen his playing time decrease, so a new team and a greater role may be of interest to him. Yes the buyout is long term but regardless of the length and hit, it is an option for Tampa to save enough if needed to sign Serg and Cirelli now. You also don’t include all the other moves Tampa will make to make space. Killorn, Paquette, very likely Coburn, and one of Johnson/Gourde/Palat saves Tampa nearly 14 million before replacements, who will be relatively cost controlled. If one of them don’t waive, keeping Cernak is more difficult, but not impossible. Tampa easily gets to a 21 or 22 player roster to begin the year, sorry but Tampa is going nowhere and will still be a top 5 contender. Most likely their lineup is this next year or something close:
13 F- 46.475-46.64
So Tampa has to negotiate 100-200k in contracts, or run 21 instead. If regular fans like myself and others are able to get the lineup this close, there’s little doubt Brisebois and his team can make it work. I’ve also given Cirelli 4.5, when most who follow Tampa see him closer to what Killorn, Johnson and Palat got on their bridges in terms of cap hit %, so closer to 4 for Cirelli. The 400-500k saved on Cirelli gets them there easily. If they keep Coburn, they can still fit by playing him at 3LD and moving Serg to the top 4 on the right. If they have to buy out Johnson or Gourde(the most likely candidates), sure the cap hit varies over the years but it’s nothing crippling. With their buy out, they likely trade Cernak and run Serg, Rutta/Bogo and Foote on the right and Hedman, McD and either Coburn or a cheaper fill in at 3LD. Tampa has plenty of options to make things work, like most Tampa fans already know. We’ve heard the same crap from ppl like you for several years now, so it’s nothing surprising. Thanks for once again showing no real understanding of Tampa’s cap situation.</div></div>