JTBF81

Member Since
Jul 23, 2019
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Tampa Bay Lightning
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Nashville Predators
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Forum: Armchair-GM9 hours ago
Thread: TBL 20-21 v6
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hedman77</b></div><div>I often forget Sergachev has RD experience. Obviously he's better on the left side, but he is capable of playing the right side. And he's lethal with Hedman.</div></div>

Yeah, if Tampa has to have a lesser 3rd pair but has Hedman-Serg and McD-Cernak as their top 4, I think they'll be alright. They could still potentially have Bogo or Rutta as the 3RD and then a cheap but serviceable 3LD perhaps. Cal Foote really is the question mark, as Tampa has refused to trade him at least twice before, and have given him plenty of time to get ready in the A. He'll likely be needed to start next year, and if he's not in their future plans for whatever reason then he needs to be traded for good value while he still has some. Tampa also has to decide which 4 dmen to protect in the ED, and unless they plan on exposing McD(which would be a mistake imo) they'll have to choose between Cernak or Foote as the 4th. Of course, as with Vegas, I'm sure Tampa can offer some picks or prospects to have Seattle take the player they want in order to protect an extra dman or F if needed.
Forum: Armchair-GM9 hours ago
Thread: TBL 20-21 v6
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ithinkimrational</b></div><div>Those Sergachev and Cirelli contracts are light. You can hope.</div></div>

Not light at all. Tampa bridges their rfa's, and these numbers are very much in line. Cirelli won't be getting much more than any of Killorn, Johnson or Palat took in terms of cap % on their bridges, which was just under 5%. Cirelli may get just over 4, but 4.25 would be the high end.

Sergachev at 4.5 is also very reasonable. It's in the same range as his closest comparables, McAvoy and Werenski, took on their bridges. Tampa rfa's have also taken slightly less historically, so 4.5 compared to 4.9 or 5 is hardly out of the question. Adding in the flat cap, which will likely result in many rfa's and ufas taking less money and/or shorter deals, only further strengthens Tampa's position with them. Finally, both players know how the structure works in Tampa with elc-bridge-long term deal. Both are much more likely to continue this as it keeps a top 5 team together and competing for Cups for awhile. There's a lot of precedent in Tampa with this situation, so yeah, not really light at all with their numbers. Tampa isn't losing either, but could end up losing Cernak depending on different factors.
Forum: Armchair-GMTue at 9:23 am
Thread: SABRES
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RoyalBlueSabres</b></div><div>considering we had this debate for the past 4 days all I can say is I can't wait to see what happens with this kid cause a top 10 pick in this draft is worth way more than a 1st and 3rd in next year's draft.</div></div>

In a vacuum, sure it is. For teams that are rebuilding and/or are still a few years away, which Buffalo is, the potential that the pick holds is very valuable. For a team like Tampa who is in the middle of their Cup window, the pick doesn't have that value in exchange for a proven and only getting better commodity. Cirelli is already the 2C on one of the top 5 teams in the league and will be getting a good raise for a short term bridge. He knows the situation regarding the flat cap and Covid, and he is well aware of Tampa's cap situation and how their system works with rfa deals. So sure, he could leave this team for an extra million or two(less bc of taxes) and go to a team that has little chance of winning a championship in the next 3 years, has far worse weather etc., or be could stay in Tampa where he is pretty happy from all reports and still get a raise of around 5x what he is currently making, while betting on himself that in 3 years, it will be even better financially speaking and he may have his name on the Cup by then.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul 31 at 4:28
Thread: TBL v5 trading Cirelli
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DifferentTages</b></div><div>At any given point in time, every team’s fanbase has a good young player who they rate far higher than they should. (They usually turn on him two years later, he gets traded, on goes on to have a respectable career).

Jokiharju is that guy right now for Buffalo. Of course he is available if Cirelli is the return.

I think the Sabres would want a piece like a Joseph coming back, or a lesser futures piece substituted for Casey. And/or they would be willing to take on a cap dump in order to reduce what they give up.
But the offer for Cirelli is certainly in the ballpark.</div></div>

I think Tampa would offer a younger player like Joseph in a combo deal. Something like Cirelli+Joseph for Joki, Mittlestadt, '21 2nd I could see, or Cirelli+Joseph for Joki, '20 2nd and Asplund. I don't see Tampa taking salary back as they can't and still manage the cap. If Tampa was actually shopping Cirelli though, a deal around Joki or Cozens I still believe would be possible.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul 31 at 4:24
Thread: TBL v5 trading Cirelli
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RoyalBlueSabres</b></div><div>Lol where are they finding the money to do all of this??
And if everyone loves Tampa as much as they say then they aren't moving NMCs. So that leaves rfas? So something has to give somewhere my guy</div></div>

The money has already been found in multiple rosters for next year. No point in discussing it with people like you who have already taken the mindset that no one in Tampa would ever waive, when Tampa needs just one guy to do so. There are more than a few reasons why one of the three might, which have been posited by different posters on multiple sites. You can get back to Tampa fans if they ever do lose guys that they really didn't want to lose(of course even then posters like that will have been right one whole time in 6 years, good track record...). Until then, just like the last 5 years, it'll be nothing but whining about unfair advantages or just crickets when Tampa once again keeps their players on reasonable bridge deals/contracts.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul 30 at 11:39
Thread: Gourde to Colorado
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dca919</b></div><div>so just straight up: 5 years x 5.25M for (so 4 years of control on a reasonable contract. Improving every year. Coming off 47 points and one of the few that showed up with grit in the Lightnings playoff series) gets traded for a 3rd that year and a lottery-protected 1st rounder (so figure 16-17 at best) the following year on a team that is moving through it's rebuild and up in the standings each of the past years..less than offer sheet compensation as no draft protection on those...again pennies on the dollar...I am sure it's standard protocol to trade young guns that are improving on reasonable contracts...happens all the time.

Killorn has a 16 no trade clause which means all he has to do is list the 16 teams with cap room and he gets a full NTC basically and still leaves room to block Winnipeg.

Go to Tampa's team page and tell me what is 20-21's projected cap space, roster size:
PROJECTED CAP SPACE $5,333,334
ROSTER SIZE 15

Now go to the buyout page use next offseason by selecting after July 1st and calculate for: Gourde (the highest contract gives you the most savings): tell me if you get anything different than $2,453,333

Now use your bs number for Serg: 4.5M

what's left?

It's simple.....<strong>your argument boils down to we can easily get player X to waive his NTC and move to one of the very few handful of teams with the cap room to take him in a tax disadvantaged state (almost all of which won't be competing for the Cup next year) during a global pandemic</strong>. Before the cap wasn't going to stagnate for a couple years. It's foolish to say because this happened in the past it will happen today given the mitigating factors. There was a reason these guys got these NTC's.<strong>

Johnson could lose huge in taxes by being traded </strong>over the course of rest of his contract so I wouldn't be so sure he's willing to say oh pick me. For example, he loses approx (because it only uses '19-'20 numbers and his salary isn't stagnant <strong>$691,179 per year in Ottawa</strong>,<strong> $381,370 in Buffalo</strong> per year,<strong> $242,762 in Detroit</strong> per year, <strong>$199,847 in Denver</strong> per year, <strong>$403,486 in New Jersey</strong> per yr, <strong>$617,394 in LA</strong> per yr, <strong>$316,584 in Columbus</strong>s per yr, and<strong> $688,794 in Montreal</strong>.
Check it out for yourself: <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/income-tax-calculator/tyler-johnson">https://www.capfriendly.com/income-tax-calculator/tyler-johnson</a>

You try to cut $2.765M (worst case Ottawa taxes lost x4 years) of his remaining 17.75M salary and watch the NTC exercised.

but I know buyouts...Tampa's owner is already paying $1.761M for Lecavalier and now you want to add another 5.4M (will need 2 guys as I've proven). Good luck with that one too.

Painful player losses are coming...not the junk you're peddling.</div></div>
Lol, Miller was getting buroesnon the 3rd and 3th lines here, wasn't improving, and was a playoff dud. You are.delusuonal with your justification. He had potential and for brief stretches looked good when in the top 6. He didn't bring it consistently here and was item in Coopwrs doghouse. I wanted to keep him but he was not going to be used correctly and that hia.numbera were much more likely to stagnate here. Who gives a **** about his team control or contract numbers if that was going to be the case. OS compensation, lol, what OS compensation when he was already signed for 4 more years and would have been a ufa after(and no, Tampa never planned on not re-signing him when they made the trade for him and McD.) Tampa had to make a choice between moving him or Gourde last offseason, and the team chose to move the player that brought them a better return and was, for right or wrong, less liked by Cooper and JBB. It's great that Miller is having a career year for Vancouver, he was never going to get that opportunity here and his trade value would've only decreased. Funny that when the trade was made at the draft, on nearly every site I went on, the consent uh s was about 90% that Tampa got an great deal for him but now you have spoken and it wasnpennieanon the dollar lol sure.

Again those of us that understand Tampa have heard this laughable nonsense before. Detractors like yourself have been wrong for 5 years and then when Tampa figures it out without losing big pieces, whine about taxes and how unfair it is. Serg at 4.5 on a bridge is not a bs number, as his comparables took 4.9 and 5. Tampa rfa's traditionally take a little less, so 4.5x3 is far from unreasonable. Johnson and Gourde would he taxed heavier elsewhere, sure, and yet they are still making a great deal of money and would have a greater role on their new team. Tampa will likely take a lesser return than usual for either because they can be selective, but that's the trade off to clear the cap space. You assume none will waive when that scenario is far from uncommon. Johnson is as good as gone after next year, so he can either work with the team now for a destination he prefera or list 20 teams next year. Regarding Killorn, you've just spouted the same nonsense we've heard from so.many others, oh no, Tampa only has 14 teams to work with, yeah, Killorn will easily get traded(perhaps not for a huge haul, but if 2 teams want him and are willing to battle, who knows?) Again, if Johnson/Gourde won't waive, then Tampa will buy one of them out.

Speaking of buyouts, Lecavalier's and Carle's(after this season) buyouts are over and Tampa would need to buy out one of the ~5million contracts to make the roster work. If the buyout is the way they have to go, Gourde saves more initially but either Jihnson or Gourde could be selected. In any case, my lineup or something similar still works. This scenario, as I mentioned, very likely necessitates the trade of Cernak. It's still far more likely that one of Johnson or Gourde(probably Johnson) waives and works with Tampa to go somewhere he wants to go, even if it means sacrificing on the return. Tampa won't be experiencing any painful losses, just more wishful delusions that we've heard for 5 years from pouty rival fans. Good luck with that! I'm done discussing it with you as well, so while no doubt you'll post some rambling reply, it'll mean nothing to me.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul 29 at 11:19
Thread: Gourde to Colorado
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dca919</b></div><div>4 years x 5.25M for 27 goals 45 assists (72 pts) in 69 games plus Nolan Foote (2nd/3rd line winger) going one way.....Blake Coleman (1 assist in 9 games 1 more year @1.8M but is a 2 way player), Marek Mazanec (not in TB’s plans moving forward only included to keep Van from going over contract limit), and # 71 - Hugo Alnefelt (goalie projected to be solid backup/possible NHL starter but not even in NA rinks yet)
....yeah pennies on the dollar

Gourde's was a terrible contract. Vasi's was a terrible contract given the team's cap issue already. Point's contract kicked the can down the road on a short term deal that was fair to both sides.

Buyout one equaling affording Serg and Cirelli? ...think again. Buying out a contract doesn't spread out the payments evenly.
Gourde's buyout ($2,713,333M next year, $513,333 yr 2, $2,713,333 yr 3, $1,713,333 yr 4 &amp; 5, $1,646,667 yrs 6-10) only $2,453,333 savings next year minus the replacement cost
Johnson buyout ( $2,729,167M next year, $979,167 yr 2, $2,729,167 yr 3, $1,729,167 yr 4, $1,479,167 yrs 5-8) only $2,270,833 savings next year minus the replacement cost
Palat buyout ($3,312,500M next year, $1,457,500 yr 2-4) savings only $1,987,500 next year minus the replacement cost.
<strong>
Current cap space $5,333,334 (15 players signed) + 2.4533M savings (now 14 players) = 7.7867M -4.5M (Serg makes 15 players) = 3.2867M left to sign Anthony Cirelli and 7 other players....including Cernak.</strong>

You just proved my point that Tampa fans don't understand the situation by thinking you just have to get rid of one player by buyout when they say no to waiving the NTC's.[/

Nice try spinning the Miller deal after the fact lol. The trade was for a 1st and 3rd at the time, so the trade was far from for pennies on the dollar lol. Tampa would very gladly take the same for Killorn and one of Johnson, Gourde or Palat. Gourde’s contract was and is still fine, you probably see his stats and assume, like so many others, that his contract is horrible. Vas’s has the worst of the 3 you mentioned, but Tampa has their goaltending solved for the better part of a decade barring injury, so they’ll take it. Your numbers are laughable regarding Tampa’s cap. You seem to assume Tampa won’t convince a guy to waive when they have before and their are reasons for a player like Johnson or Gourde to want to do so. Johnson is the most likely case as he can be very selective where he goes now vs risking 20 locations after 1 more year in Tampa. He has made plenty of money and has seen his playing time decrease, so a new team and a greater role may be of interest to him. Yes the buyout is long term but regardless of the length and hit, it is an option for Tampa to save enough if needed to sign Serg and Cirelli now. You also don’t include all the other moves Tampa will make to make space. Killorn, Paquette, very likely Coburn, and one of Johnson/Gourde/Palat saves Tampa nearly 14 million before replacements, who will be relatively cost controlled. If one of them don’t waive, keeping Cernak is more difficult, but not impossible. Tampa easily gets to a 21 or 22 player roster to begin the year, sorry but Tampa is going nowhere and will still be a top 5 contender. Most likely their lineup is this next year or something close:
Stamkos-Point-Kucherov(24.75)
Gourde/Johnson-Cirelli-Palat(14.8-14.967)
Coleman-Stephens-Goodrow(3.525)
Maroon-Verhaeghe-Joseph/ABB/Volkov(2.6)
13 F- 46.475-46.64

Hedman-Rutta(9.275)
McD-Cernak(8.75)
Serg-Foote(5.425)
Gaunce/Bogosian/Schenn
7D-24.25

Vasi(9.5)
McE(1.3)
2G-10.8
Total-81.523-81.69
So Tampa has to negotiate 100-200k in contracts, or run 21 instead. If regular fans like myself and others are able to get the lineup this close, there’s little doubt Brisebois and his team can make it work. I’ve also given Cirelli 4.5, when most who follow Tampa see him closer to what Killorn, Johnson and Palat got on their bridges in terms of cap hit %, so closer to 4 for Cirelli. The 400-500k saved on Cirelli gets them there easily. If they keep Coburn, they can still fit by playing him at 3LD and moving Serg to the top 4 on the right. If they have to buy out Johnson or Gourde(the most likely candidates), sure the cap hit varies over the years but it’s nothing crippling. With their buy out, they likely trade Cernak and run Serg, Rutta/Bogo and Foote on the right and Hedman, McD and either Coburn or a cheaper fill in at 3LD. Tampa has plenty of options to make things work, like most Tampa fans already know. We’ve heard the same crap from ppl like you for several years now, so it’s nothing surprising. Thanks for once again showing no real understanding of Tampa’s cap situation.</div></div>
Forum: Armchair-GMJul 29 at 7:56
Thread: Gourde to Colorado
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dca919</b></div><div>Was it Yzerman that signed these bad contracts or was it BriseBois?
Gourde: BriseBois
<a href="https://www.nhl.com/lightning/news/lightning-re-sign-forward-yanni-gourde-to-six-year-contract/c-301549740" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://www.nhl.com/lightning/news/lightning-re-sign-forward-yanni-gourde-to-six-year-contract/c-301549740</a>
Vasilevskiy : BriseBois
<a href="https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/lightning-sign-goaltender-andrei-vasilevskiy-eight-year-extension/" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/lightning-sign-goaltender-andrei-vasilevskiy-eight-year-extension/</a>
Point: BriseBois

Yzerman got players to sign discounted contracts but that meant no-trade clauses so you can blame him for those, but that's how those players agreed to lower salaries.

BTW: per Evolving Hockey--Sergachev's is 6 years at a $6.5M cap hit. Does he want a bridge deal?

Tampa has so many problems because of cap that its fans don't realize they will be forced to trade a player for pennies on the dollar (JT Miller ring a bell?) Vets can simply say no and use their NTC's--especially with COVID moving concerns for family--I expect most to do just that limiting Tampa's options even further.</div></div>

Tampa fans know the situation and the many options they have quite well. If you call getting a 1st and a 3rd round pick(what they got for Miller) "pennies on the dollar," then please sign Tampa up for 1 or 2 more. Serg has indicated he's open to different contract options, and given Tampa's history of bridges, no real issues with it getting done at 4.5x3. Point has a great deal, Gourde's was fair and Vasi was overpaid by 1-1.5 million. That's the price to lock up a top 3 goaltender long term, and also Bobrovsky had also just signed for 10 which no doubt played into it. If Tampa ultimately can't get one of Johnson, Gourde or Palat to waive, they can buy one out and still have enough for Serg and Cirelli. Cernak would likely be tougher though in this scenario.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul 29 at 5:05
Thread: interesting ideas
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RoyalBlueSabres</b></div><div>Never said premium assets. But especially teams in the division will not be taking players they want to move to keep a young core around them.
The market around these players are gonna be hard especially players with a NTC cause teams where those players want to go know they have an upper hand on TB
So I bet Serg or Cireli will be gone via offersheet</div></div>

Tampa only needs one of the full NTC's to waive to make this work. Neither Serg nor Cirelli seem interested in leaving Tampa based on recent comments and videos, and neither seems like making max money in exchange for leaving a top contender is a top priority. They and their agents understand how the structure works in Tampa, so if seems very likely that they both bridge for 3 years between 4 and 5. They bet on themselves for the.big payday later, and keep one of the best contenders going for at least several years. They could take 1 to maybe 2 million more from a non contender on an OS, but it seems very doubtful. The only rfa that may be lost is Cernak, but even he has a decent chance to stay if he's willing to work with the team around 2 million or so. If Tampa were to make the trade in the OP, then the 2 defensive rfa's are a lock to stay, but I still don't know if getting rid of Cirelli is a good plan given where Tampa is in their window.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul 29 at 12:38
Thread: interesting ideas
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RoyalBlueSabres</b></div><div>If they get people to leave. Nobody is giving one of the beta teams in the league any favors. TB is gonna have to pay people to take good assets so that kinda sucks for them.</div></div>

And that's where most are wrong. Teams won't necessarily be going to great lengths to help Tampa(or any other team for that matter), but GM's are also not out to screw Tampa over either. Tampa won't be paying premium assets to move guys like Killorn, Johnson etc. They weren't supposed to get a great return on Miller last year either, yet due to multiple teams being interested, they did. Because of the flat cap, Tampa will perhaps not get as strong of a return on some of these ~5 million contracts, but as none are cap dumps nor have negative value, Tampa won't be adding premium assets to trade them.