SalarySwishSalarySwish
Avatar

Jded

Member Since
Jun. 20, 2016
Favourite Team
Anaheim Ducks
Forum Posts
2279
Posts per Day
0.8
Forum: Armchair-GM14 hours ago
Thread: Keep growing
Forum: Armchair-GM17 hours ago
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CouldBeKoi</b></div><div>I already admitted that my argument was speculative, but it is completely rational. Also your Jim Nill example proves my earlier point about GMs saying stuff to the media that they don’t mean. Nill said he doesn’t believe in signing players to long term deals off their ELCs but you can prove he doesn’t actually think that because he signed Heiskanen to one. Nill can’t say the actual reason why he didn’t sign him to a long term deal because it would bring down Seguin and Benn, so he just said he doesn’t believe in those deals. For that same reason you can’t take what coaching and Verbeek said about Zegras as being entirely truthful. Every GM says stuff they don’t actually mean. If you’re trying to trade someone you’re not gonna trash talk him, and if you didn’t find a deal you liked then you wouldn’t say that you shopped him when he has 3 years left, that would ruin morale. Also you aren’t listening at all to my point about bridge deals vs long term deals. Not every situation is the same, for the leafs and stars they needed to bridge because every dollar counts when you’re trying to win now. The ducks were not competing when the contract was signed, and they probably won’t for the duration of the deal. The ducks were in the perfect situation to sign Zegras to a long term deal, but they chose not to. If they signed him to say an 8 by 8 or something like that, Zegras would not have been worth it now, but that wouldn’t matter because the ducks aren’t competing so overpaying him for the meantime wouldn’t matter. And then later in the contract, when you are actually competing then Zegras would hopefully be worth more than the 8M cap hit which would be perfect for a competitive team. The ducks were in a position with minimal risk to lock him up long term, with chance of seriously high reward, but they didn’t want to sign him long term. Also even if I’m over speculating Into the bridge Zegras is still likely a secondary part of the core, Carlsson, McTavish, Gauthier, Mintyukov, Zellweger, Dostal and whoever they get this year are likely going to be the main pieces of the ducks core, and they already extended Terry long term. There is only so much money to spend and all of those guys are going to need huge pay raises right around the time Zegras’ bridge deal runs up. Since the ducks opted to bridge Zegras they are likely going to have to sign him to a more expensive contract than they would have been able to sign this offseason. And when you need to give a pay raise to 3-7 more important players to your team then Zegras would be the odd man out. These are things GMs keep in mind, you aren’t just living in right now, you look ahead to where you’re going to be. The ducks have shown that are more confident in McTavish and Leo, that’s why they moved Z to wing, they gave up on Jamie Drysdale and a 2nd to get Gauthier so they are clearly very high in him. Mintyukov and Zellweger look like clear franchise defenceman, you’re probably gonna get your franchise RHD this year and they should be a huge part of your core. When you have that many guys that you believe in more than Z then you seriously have to look ahead and consider the possibility of trading him. He is at his peak value right now because he’s making fairly little money, which is ideal for contenders, while still being under contract for 2 more years, and being an RFA after that.

Yes you are completely right about prospects being not guarantees, I totally agree. But to be a successful GM you have to take risks sometimes. And again I was talking about the flexibility that having a second first would have. If Anaheim gets a top 2 pick they could grab either Celebrini or Demidov who are both more valuable and project to be better than Z, and then if they trade him they could address the need for defence as well. Or if they took Levshunov and a prospect that they loved fell to Seattle then they could take him instead of Zegras and they could get someone that suits the system and role better. Zegras has been playing better in the system this year but it doesn’t really fit his style of play. With this pick they could potentially get someone that fits better into their scheme. So yeah prospects are just guessing, but also assuming you know how a team feels about a draft or a prospect is just as much of a guess.

Again I already agreed that LHD isn’t the ducks priority and would’ve be their desired add. But my disagreement is that you think he provides no value to Anaheim at all. A good player is a good player regardless of position. Also if you actually thought about what I said in my comment that you replied to you would realize that your Ducks literally run multiple double LHD pairs right now, so they clearly don’t care that much about handedness. Evans can upgrade over Vaakanainen, and move up to fill Fowlers role when he leaves. So yeah even if he isn’t the most desirable position or prospect for the ducks, your notion that he adds no value to them at all is a very closed minded and not factual argument.

My whole argument is that you are looking at Zegras in a vacuum. Yeah he’s a good player, but is he really going to be worth the big deal when you need to extend sooo many guys?? I don’t know, and Im not sure if the Ducks know either. All that I’m saying is that when you said that there was no chance that the ducks would even consider this package at all is not true. You mentioned Lindstrom but you forgot about the possibility of Celebrini. Even if it is like an 11% chance you get him, that is still an 11% chance that this trade would make total sense to pull off. So if there is a very possible scenario where this deal makes sense then you can’t say the ducks would never ever even think of this trade. Also you mentioned Gibson being the deal like I was arguing about that part, in my first comment I specified that my point was that package would be enough for Zegras ALONE, which was replying to a comment saying that it wouldn’t even get Zegras.
Finally, like I already said, yeah this deal is not happening, but it’s not because Anaheim would say no under any circumstance. It’s not happening because it doesn’t make sense for seattle to give up that much for a guy that has never shown he can win at the NHL level.</div></div>

It’s never minimal risk to sign a player for 8 years. Even for Terry, Verbeek gave only 7. I'm sure he saw areas of improvement in Zegras’ game and preferred a bridge deal so he could prove that he’s worth a longer term contract. And there are more sources than just what the coach/GM have said publicly. Lebrun got word from 3 ANA insiders that confirmed Zegras has not been in any trade talk and that Verbeek wasn’t shopping him at all

They moved Z to the wing because he plays more of a wing’s game. Less defensively responsible, never adept at faceoffs, smaller frame/build. The number of C/W in the NHL is incredibly high. If you’re going to suggest that means they don’t want him, then it would suggest they must not value Gauthier either, because he’s another C that they’ll be playing on the wing. Teams love C/W because of the flexibility and balance it gives a roster. Remember the Sharks Stanley cup team that had like 7 centers on it?

I still completely see everything you’re saying about prospects as pure speculation. If I polled your opinion on what ANA would do with either of their first two picks in literally any of the last 3 drafts they would’ve all been wrong. And I’d put my money on Levshunov at #2OA for ANA, not Demidov. But I’m willing to admit, that’s purely a guess. They have another 1st round pick. If someone is falling they have so many assets they can use to bu for and advance, especially with a very early 2nd rounder, and the player I would picture they’d consider that for is Nygard, for which it’d be more of a 15th overall+ move. Use other assets to go get a mid first, heck no to Zegras, those players typically peak at what he already is

A LHD is moot. It’s really not worth commenting on anymore. It’d never be involved in an ANA trade and shows a lack of consideration for the other team in the trade offer. It’s irrelevant

The only way Zegras gets big money is if Zegras is worth big money. This argument makes no sense. If he is an 80 point scorer, we’ll pay him like one. If he gets $9M/yr it’ll be because he’s a stud for us. So happy to pay him. Not every player needs to be on the league’s cheapest deal because they risked 8 years on it. There are plenty of Skinners around the league to show how that can bite you. This deal was poorly structured with assets that aren’t of interest to ANA, and therefore wouldn’t be considered. I think if we still disagree at this point, it’s cool to just agree to disagree. Been a fun debate but the argument is so long on both sides and too much is just opinion that we aren’t really debating anything head-to-head at this point
Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 11:10 a.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CouldBeKoi</b></div><div>I’ll give you credit for having some rationale, but none of this is compelling in the least. It’s still complete and utter conjecture that the team doesn’t want Zegras. Your logic would imply Nylander wasn’t a core player (proven otherwise), Jason Robertson, etc. not every GM has the Buffalo/OTT philosophy of signing every player to 8 years off their ELC. That actually gives them the opportunity to keep them longer while restricted. He’ll be an RFA 3 years later and can still be signed long term then

If I’m ANA I wouldn’t take any player not named Celebrini over Zegras straight up. He fits the team and is fully proven. 3 or 4 players taken inside the top 10 bust every year. He has an awesome ceiling and has already proven plenty to be a core player in ANA

It makes no difference what Evans has done. The fact that you think ANA is going to value a LHD coming back is just silly. The same reason you thought Zegras was expendable as a center is why a LHD is altogether wasted in ANA. You’re nuts if you think Zellweger hasn’t looked really good playing in the NHL for us, or more likely you haven’t been watching. The dude’s even been a star of the game multiple times in our losses. He looks awesome. We’re good at LD, thank you.

Zegras is staying. It’s really that simple

I’ll give you credit for having some rationale, but none of this is compelling in the least. It’s still complete and utter conjecture that the team doesn’t want Zegras. Your logic would imply Nylander wasn’t a core player (proven otherwise), Jason Robertson, etc. not every GM has the Buffalo/OTT philosophy of signing every player to 8 years off their ELC. That actually gives them the opportunity to keep them longer while restricted. He’ll be an RFA 3 years later and can still be signed long term then

If I’m ANA I wouldn’t take any player not named Celebrini over Zegras straight up. He fits the team and is fully proven. 3 or 4 players taken inside the top 10 bust every year. He has an awesome ceiling and has already proven plenty to be a core player in ANA

It makes no difference what Evans has done. The fact that you think ANA is going to value a LHD coming back is just silly. The same reason you thought Zegras was expendable as a center is why a LHD is altogether wasted in ANA. You’re nuts if you think Zellweger hasn’t looked really good playing in the NHL for us, or more likely you haven’t been watching. The dude’s even been a star of the game multiple times in our losses. He looks awesome. We’re good at LD, thank you.

Zegras is staying. It’s really that simple

While I will totally admit that my rationale on the bridge deal is speculative, your examples have no relevance because they are completely different situations. When the leafs bridged Nylander he was the 4th or maybe even 5th most important member of the core behind Matthews, Marner, Tavares and maybe Rielly. So it made a lot of sense for the leafs to not want to shell out a massive deal to Willy knowing Matthews and marner were about to need raises when they had already established that they were better, so it would’ve been a huge risk to possibly overpay Willy. For Dallas and Robertson they totally would’ve given him a massive deal if it weren’t for the massive Benn and Seguin deals. They simply just didn’t have the cap space to risk at the time. I guarantee you that Robertson would’ve signed and 7 or 8 year deal if Benn and Seguin were only getting paid 6/7 million each. With Zegras he was at that point, the brightest or second brightest part of the core behind McTavish. They had nobody signed to massive deals like the leafs/stars and all of their other pieces of the core were either rookies or prospects at the time. Mintyukov hadn’t played yet, Carlsson just got drafted etc. They had all the money to spend on Zegras and weren’t confident in committing to him yet. Yeah not every team has the Buffalo/Ottawa mentality of signing guys but by signing Zegras to a bridge they are going to need to sign him to a bigger deal they are going to need to give him a pay raise in 2 more years after his deal is up. Which doesn’t make sense when they have so many young guys in the system that are looking bright. It makes sense to bridge the secondary parts of the core when you have money tied up, but Anaheim didn’t at all. The leafs and stars were trying to compete at the time, so having Nylander/Robertson at a lower cap hit makes sense because you can use that other space to fill out your roster to compete now. So yeah a bridge contract can make sense for a team trying to be good, and doesn’t necessarily mean that you don’t want a player long term. However the ducks with Zegras was not one of those situations so comparing them is pointless.

On the prospects taking over Zegras straight up Celebrini for sure and Demidov has to be as well. unless you are seriously concerned about him not leaving Russia his potential and what he’s shown are incredible. Catton might be a debatable one because I understand the size concerns but he is lighting up the WHL (3rd in scoring) while being on a bad team in his draft year. Firkus and Funk are the only two above him and they are both 2 years older and have far more talent around him. I have the WHL pass so I’ve been watching him and he is just awesome. I understand the hesitation on any of the other guys because Zegras is a proven NHLer but I think Lindstrom and Eiserman have insane potential and also could fit amazing in the ducks system.

The fact that you think a 22 year old who is progressing well has no value is what’s silly. Also using the Zegras being a Center thing is not the same I’m talking about with Evans. For Zegras he isn’t a top 2 Center in the ducks and putting him on the third line wouldn’t suit his style of play so they have to move him to the wing. I’m saying that the prospects the ducks could get with the pick might be better than Zegras so that’s why they’d move him. Not because he is moved to wing but because the other options could be viewed as an upgrade depending on how the GM sees the prospects. With Evans yeah you have a bunch of LHD but he’s like the 3rd best going forward behind Mintyukov and Zellweger, I can understand having Lacombe ahead of him because he’s already in the system but going forward nobody else with ducks is better going forward. Plenty of teams run 4 LHD you brought up the Stars and Leafs earlier talking about bridge deals. Both of those teams regularly run 4 LHD, and the Heiskanen-Harley pair has been one of the absolute best. Your Anaheim Ducks literally run two both LHD pairs with Mintyukov-Zellweger and Fowler-Lacombe. Evans could upgrade over Vaakanainen next season, and then slot into the Fowler role when he ages out. The ducks would still draft their RHD prospect this year to eventually replace Gudas and then when Fowler is gone they could bring in a shutdown d to help round it out.

I agree that Zegras is staying put, all I’m saying is that if this deal was on the board on draft night and the Ducks knew who they could take with Seattle’s pick, they would have to consider it heavily. The notion that it would be a no brainer decline under any circumstance is a very closed minded opinion that is not very accurate. I highly doubt Seattle would even offer this for Zegras because for them it is definitely an overpay. Pick 9-14, two second round picks when Seattle has consistently picked well their and then our best Defensive prospect who as played very well in the minors and has played well filling in for Vince Dunn all for a guy who has never contributed to winning at the NHL level and doesn’t fit into the system? No way. This deal won’t happen not because the ducks would decline, but rather because Zegras coming off a down year where he got hurt is not worth it.</div></div>

The entire argument about Zegras’ deal is still speculative and just your opinion. Just because you would sign him to an 8 year deal doesn’t mean that’s every GMs preference. And I can already poke at least one hole in your comparisons because Jim Nill outright said he doesn’t believe in signing players to massive long term deals off their ELC. It wasn’t Ben/Seguin’s deals that tied his hands. He just didnt want to give it. Still, almost certainly a part of their core. A situation doesn’t need to be the exact same to imply the same thing. A bridge deal doesn’t mean management doesn’t believe in the player, nor that the player isn’t a part of their long term plan. It simply means they didn’t want to give a long-term deal at that time

Everything about prospects is speculative. 30-40%+ of your favorite top 10 picks will become 3rd liners or worse in the NHL. Happens every year. I’m very happy with the locked in top line winger we have already, rather than rolling the dice on someone

You’re still not listening. Never said Evans has no value. He has no value to ANA. We’d be flipping him. SEA has a ton of valuable prospects they could trade. Anyone who thought Evans was the one to send didn’t spend 10 seconds looking at ANA’s strengths/needs. Thats just a fact. He would never be included in a trade to ANA because they already need to move out LD talent this year because of their logjam. Don’t over complicate it. It’s that simple

I’m certain that no trade for a LHD, and 2 2nds would be considered for Zegras. Because it means the high end asset that ANA actually needs is a diluted version of what they’d actually consider if they weren’t sold on Zegras, which would be a Lindstrom type. Not to mention this hilarious offer includes Gibson, don’t forget
Forum: Armchair-GMSun. at 1:08 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMSat. at 1:20 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMFri. at 5:41 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMFri. at 5:38 a.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CouldBeKoi</b></div><div>First off, again I don't think this would happen, But....
On the front office part. You have definitely lacked scoring with zegras out, but it is not like he creates such a huge difference. Even when he was playing in prior years at a 60 point level the ducks offence still wasn't very good. I know that there is more talent on the roster now but the ducks offence still doesn't project to be that great next year whether they have Zegras or not. Whatever Verbeek says about wanting to compete next year that is likely not going to happen. Your offence isn't very deep and you are relying a lot on young guys to carry the load which is not sustainable for playoff teams. The defence is either old guys that aren't in their primes anymore (Fowler, Gudas) or young guys who haven't hit their ceiling yet (Mintyukov, Zellweger, Lacombe) and in goal Dostal hasn't hit his prime yet and Gibson has been washed for years. This team is not competing next year unless every young guy takes a huge jump and the veterans have a resurgence. This team should not try and compete next year and should rather prioritize building around McTavish and Carlsson opposed to Zegras' timeline. And I do believe that it was mainly rumours but also Verbeek would not have outright said they were shopping Zegras since they didn't actually trade him.
On the position thing, yes Zegras can play left wing but likely Gauthier will move to the wing as well, and so are all of the top forward prospects (Celebrini, Demidov, Lindstrom, Eiserman, Catton etc.) and a couple of the defenceman are also lefties ( Silayev, Buium, Dickinson) so unless the ducks get Levshunov or reach on Parekh/Yakemchuk they are going to have to pick a player of a role that they already have a bunch of. If they can't get Levshunov and they go for a forward that forward would also be a lefty with potential to be better than Zegras.
On the return, yes I know the Kraken's pick was at 12, hence why I say "Around top 10", but it just jumped to 10. Buffalo and Calgary were behind them and just passed them, and I think Jersey could aswell. Buffalo has been looking a lot better as of late, and Jersey just beat the Stars in Dallas. The krakens pick will most likely finish in the 9-12 range (around top 10) in the draft this year there are a bunch of great prospects per sportsnet 1) Celebrini 2) Silayev 3) Demidov 4) Levshunov 5) Yakemchuk (idk about that) 6) Dickinson 7) Catton 8) Buium 9) Parekh 10) Lindstrom 11) Iginla 12) Helenius 13) Eiserman
This means one of these guys will be available with Seattle pick, plus Anaheim has their own pick as well. If the cards stacked up the Ducks could add both an elite defensive prospect and an elite offensive prospect as well. I think this deal would only be possible on draft night when Seattle is on the clock and Anaheim would know who's available. If Anaheim took Levshunov with their own pick and one of Catton/Lindstrom/Eiserman was still on the board or especially if Anaheim gets Celebrini/Demidov and Parekh/Yakemchuk is available at the Kraken's pick, I think the ducks would move Zegras for that pick plus 2 second rounders and a solid young defenseman. Celebrini and Demidov are both better long term options than Zegras so he would totally be expendable if they were to land one of them. If Seattle offered them the ability tAo add a top RHD prospect too they would at the very least seriously consider it. For the other scenario if the ducks already got Levshunov and if Eiserman was still on the board I am sure they would have to think about moving Zegras for him. Eiserman has a killer release and if you paired him with Carlsson that would be a deadly combo. Also I know the ducks already have a bunch of LHD prospects but Evans is still valuable. He's produced at a higher rate than Lacombe has and he's almost a year younger. Zellweger is a great prospect but he isn't an lock to be an NHL yet ( I think he will be but he is still mainly a prospect). Evans was better in the AHL than Hinds was and Dionicio is still in the O on a very loaded team so neither of them are guarentees either and I think most GMs would pick Evans over the two. Fowler is definitely an NHLer but he is getting up there in age so for a future outlook he doesn't make Evans irrelevant. Also Evans is just better than Vaakanainen while having more potential. Also 2nd round picks are also fairly valuable as well. The ducks got Luneau, Zellweger, LaCombe and Warren all in the second so if you are gonna say that those guys are good and meaningful to the team moving forward you have to accept that Second rounders have value.
Lastly Zegras is not on his ELC anymore he's actually on a bridge deal. Also your GM bridged him because he wasn't fully confident in him long term at a higher cap hit so I think there could be some uncertainty there.
Again I don't think this trade would actually happen but saying that it is impossible is just not accurate. If on draft night Anaheim knew who was available to take at say pick 10, and they also got picks 42, 55 and a young defenseman for Zegras they would 100% seriously think about it.</div></div>

<strong>Ducks won’t compete next year</strong>: I agree. I never said ANA will compete next year. The argument that brought up ANA competing was that you said management views Zegras differently from the fans. I gave evidence from the coach, front office, and also Lebrun in the media based on 3 inside sources all showing they seem to feel as good about him as the fans do. The only thing you’ve said that resembles a counter-argument is that they signed him to a bridge deal. Frankly, that doesn’t remotely say they don’t want him long term. Does Dallas not want Robertson? Did TOR not want Nylander? A bridge doesn’t at all imply they don’t intend to keep the player

<strong>Build around McT and Leo:</strong> This includes making sure they both have good wingers. That’d be Gauthier and Zegras on the left side. Both of whom are young and fit the timeline of Leo and McT. Problem solved by keeping Z

<strong>‘24 Draft prospects</strong>: Sure, if ANA hits on Celebrini they’ll have to figure something out. In 3rd to last those odds are 11%, so 9 out of 10 times that’s not a concern. The most likely pick as a consensus among ANA fans has been Levshunov, again not a concern.

<strong>LHD</strong>: If you’re even still mentioning Evan’s I don’t know how to help you. Mintyukov is a clear 1LD prospect well on his way. Zellweger (AHL all star in his first season) looks absolutely insane. He’ll be a stud at 2LD. Lacombe and Vaak will vie for 3LD and Fowler is still around for 2 more years with more prospects in the pipeline. Stop with Evans, it’s just a silly argument to pretend like he’d mean anything to ANA

For a dman that ANA would have to flip, 2 picks that have low odds of ever becoming a good NHLer, and a pick in the 10-17 range, it’s an easy and hardddd pass on trading Zegras. There wouldn’t even be a second thought
Forum: Armchair-GMThu. at 6:14 p.m.