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MelonVK

Watches no games
Member Since
Jul 5, 2017
Favourite Team
Boston Bruins
2nd Favourite Team
Seattle Kraken
Birthday
Jul 3, 1994
Location
Sweden
Forum Posts
3194
Posts per Day
2.03
Forum Threads
328
Forum: NHL SigningsOct 15 at 8:56
Thread: Boston Bruins signed Charlie McAvoy (8 Years / $9,500,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TartarSauce90</b></div><div>Holy overpay!! Adam Fox must be salivating and eager to sign his next contract…</div></div>

"The best defenseman in the league must be thrilled that a top 5 defenseman in this league is making this money"

Well, sure..?

You could pay Adam Fox 11m and come out with a good deal. How many players making this money or above are actually better than McAvoy? I'd say Stone, Kucherov, Eichel, Matthews, Panarin and McDavid. That's 6/20. Maybe Vasilievsky..? So a third?

I just don't.. I don't understand how this is a bad contract unless you compare it with an incredibly good contract. Nurse and Jones are making this type of money soon. In a world where people are massively overpaying young RHD, paying one accordingly seems pretty fine to me.
Forum: NHL SigningsOct 12 at 3:26
Thread: New York Rangers signed Mika Zibanejad (8 Years / $8,500,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ON3M4N</b></div><div>He played with Hall and Reinhart last season and Reinhart has been his most consistent linemate over the last 3 years. Lets not act like he's playing with scrubs here. Its not like Zib's is playing with superstars either, his most common linemates the last 3 years were Kreider and Buch.</div></div>

Kreider and especially Buch are arguable superstars. Hall shot like 1% next to Eichel. Adam Fox leads one defense in ice time and Ristolainen (I assume) the other. One team has a Panarin-line the opponents plays matchup against, one has what, Casey Mittelstadt as the dual-threat? Zibanejad is still really good on the PP which helps his offense immensely, but the 5on5 difference is absolutely huge when isolating the players impacts.
Forum: NHL SigningsOct 11 at 1:08
Thread: New York Rangers signed Mika Zibanejad (8 Years / $8,500,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KingLundqvist30</b></div><div>Also another thing to consider is half of the season he was still recovering from Covid. He had a down year for his standards but I see him hitting 35-40 goals again this year.</div></div>

He was incredible his age 22 and 24 seasons. It's probable covid had a pretty big effect, but on the other hand we don't know that it doesn't anymore. Last year he was worse defensively, but just slightly below average offensively. He was practically Bergeron in 17-18, but then he lost his offense the next season and much of his defense the season thereafter.

Again, I hope things go well for him, but I'm not too optimistic regarding this contract, sadly.
Forum: NHL SigningsOct 11 at 12:42
Thread: New York Rangers signed Mika Zibanejad (8 Years / $8,500,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BCAPP</b></div><div>Dude in the last two years he's 12th in points and 6th in goals in the NHL. That isn't just getting a lot of minutes.

Source by the way http://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?reportType=season&amp;seasonFrom=20192020&amp;seasonTo=20202021&amp;gameType=2&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&amp;sort=goals&amp;page=0&amp;pageSize=50

If you prefer his scoring in per minute stats he's 22nd in pts/60 and tied for 21st in goals per 60.

So even by minutes he'd be the best on 1 out of 3 teams in the league...</div></div>

Yeah maybe I was a bit unclear. It's not minutes as in raw amounts, but minutes as in zone time and/or playing with really good players vs meh opposition. What we should care about is what an average player does between his linemates, vs his opposition and in his minutes. By those metrics, Mika produces 15% less than expected.

What I will say is that his shot maps are... Weird.

For some reason the net-front is really acting out in both directions. I know the Rangers specifically had some issues with counting shot distance and whatnot, but at the same time it's very high in his own direction.

<img class="for_img" src="https://i.imgur.com/atmpuNi.png" alt="vePTr3j">

These are not stats of a #1C, or even a top6 player. More like a bottom 6-player on PP1.

Edit: Did some more digging and maybe, *maybe* Hajek could be doing some of the defensive damage. The issue is that Buchnevich, Kreider etc. score better without Mika than with him.
Forum: NHL SigningsOct 11 at 6:57
Thread: New York Rangers signed Mika Zibanejad (8 Years / $8,500,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Dzinger18</b></div><div>Absolute steal for the Rangers to get Zib locked up like this for such a great price. He is a top 10 center in the league and 8.5 is a superb deal.</div></div>

No. He used to be really good, but I have no idea by what metric except raw stats inflated by the Rangers having literally like 3 other players he's done anything useful in the last few years by. His defensive metrics have gone from good to abysmal, and his scoring as I said is a product of opportunity. He doesn't score above expectation for an average player in his minutes, he scores above average because he gets minutes and pp-time.

I love Mika, he played for my favorite team in Sweden, I think he's a super cool dude, I like the Rangers.

He's just not very good at this point in his career.
Forum: NHL SigningsSep 20 at 6:32
Thread: Boston Bruins signed Zach Senyshyn (1 Year / $750,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mondo</b></div><div>Reminder: the next pick after him was Mat Barzal.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>drewjenkins</b></div><div>This will never stop making me lol whenever I'm reminded of it.

13 =<strong> Jakub Zboril</strong> (BOS)
14 = <strong>Jake DeBrusk</strong> (BOS)
15 = <strong>Zach Senyshyn</strong> (BOS)
---------------------------------
16 = <strong>Mathew Barzal</strong> (NYI)
17 = <strong>Kyle Connor</strong> (WPG)
18 = <strong>Tom Chabot</strong> (OTT)

To Boston's credit, they still one of the best teams in league, but I'm glad we didn't have to face:

<strong>Marchand
Bergeron
Pastrnak
Krejci
Barzal
Connor
Heinen
Backes
Nash

McAvoy
Chabot
Carlo
Krug
Chara
Grzelcyk

Rask
Halak</strong></div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Agalloch</b></div><div>The question shouldn't be if it's a good signing. It should be if it was a good draft pick.</div></div>


The year is 2691. There are 192 trillion people on Earth. We have as a species stopped to verbally communicate. Hockey is played on the moon as the Earth got too hot. Googmazon lenses have a designated input for sending information regarding the Bruins poor 2015 draft directly onto other peoples frontal lobes. "Rem5 Mat Brzal" is the shortest sequence of communication that automatically invokes laughter.
Forum: NHL SigningsSep 4 at 6:06
Thread: Detroit Red Wings signed Filip Hronek (3 Years / $4,400,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Skyraider112</b></div><div>If you think Hronek is a bottom pair D man and that Risto shouldn't even play in the NHL then you may need some down time to re-evaluate......</div></div>

You're right. Your insights have swayed my opinion, I now agree with you.

Like it's so lazy you don't even present an argument. I don't even know what to tackle here. I guess since you automatically assume guys are fine just cause they have a few points, here are some things to consider:

Never evaluate points in a vacuum. Ristolainens point totals are heavily dependant on him playing on PP1, him playing with Eichel, and him playing 23+ minutes many nights. Any player would score some in those situations. We aren't actually interested in how much Ristolainen scored, but how much he scored compared to what we *expect* a player to score in that situation.

*EVEN* if Ristolainen were to score above expectations, how does that compare to at what rate offense flows back in his direction meanwhile? How do you effectively measure this? If you watched a single minute of Ristolainen you'd know he's extremely prone to blunders, to pointlessly tracking players behind the net, to trying to get physical and getting circumvented, to passing straight into turnovers on what should be breakouts, and the list goes on and on. Any model has him as one of the worst players in the league over the past decade, period, because of those reasons. Ristolainen does not only score below expectation, he wildly increases scoring in his teams direction.

Hronek is just a little bit like this - his numbers are inflated because Detroit doesn't really have anyone else, but his play doesn't have the same large net negative impact.
Forum: NHL SigningsSep 3 at 9:58
Thread: Detroit Red Wings signed Filip Hronek (3 Years / $4,400,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Random2152</b></div><div>Hronek is one of those guys like Bertuzzi, Jokiharju, and Brady Tkachuk who get largely overrated based on the fact that they are some of the only decent to good players on their otherwise dog **** teams. He has struggled immensly in the role he has been given and desperatly needs help and a reduction in ice time and QoC. I do like him though and think he could be a reasonable 2nd pair/#4 guy in this league if he were developed properly but Detroit just gave him near top-pair bridge deal money. Absolutly insane.

Good for him I suppose. If I were being thrown to the wolves like he has been I'd want to get paid too.

The most worrying trend here though is that he is on the Ristolainen path right now and every effort needs to be made to steer him clear of that. He really is getting crushed out there.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Skyraider112</b></div><div>What... Brady Tkachuk is extremely good and the fact that he has been good on a pretty bad team just highlights how good he is. Same with those other players you listed, just obviously to a lesser extent since they aren't nearly as good as Tkachuk</div></div>

You're so close. Tkachuk *is* really good. Nobody else mentioned here is. Also, neither is close to being anything like Ristolainen. Hronek is like a #5 being paid because Detroit doesn't really have anyone better. Ristolainen should be like an #11 on an NHL team.

There are good players on bad teams. Most players on bad teams are bad. Let's try to keep both of those thoughts in our heads at once when evaluating players :)
Forum: Armchair-GMSep 2 at 1:12
Thread: Eichel overpay or underpay poll
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NYR1983</b></div><div>I’m not saying they are guaranteed studs, but for a team that’s rebuilding and isn’t getting better offers or even close to this offer..no team should ever let go of a JE, issue here is BUF really can’t keep him justifiably. It’s a messed up situation is all.</div></div>

Yeah but the discussion is if the trade is fair in its purest sense?

My point was any team giving up a bunch of late firsts for Eichel is going to come winning out of that equation unless the other team has an insane stroke of luck, and you can't really assume that. I'm saying *even* if this is the price, someone should already have paid up for Eichel. My biggest issue here is still Grzlcyk who you probably won't replace easily, but this *type* of package should still be fine.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep 1 at 7:19
Thread: Eichel overpay or underpay poll
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NYR1983</b></div><div>So you’re telling me Jack Eichel is worth more than Kuch, Point and Pasta combined?

While I can give credit to you not over valuing your players I do question your valuing of Jack Eichel. He’s far from McJesus value. Like not top 20 in the league.</div></div>

My point is that you're still incredibly unlikely to get either of them. You're picking 3 guys who went between like 200 others. Pasta was picked 25th in that draft - let's see who went in that spot the drafts before and after:

2015 - Jack Roslovic (alright, good start)
2016 - Riley Tufte (literally who)
2017 - Ryan Poehling (what does he make, 750k?)

2013 - Michael McCarron (oh)
2012 - Jordan Schmaltz (wait, he is a guy, isn't he?)
2011 - Stuart Percy (not convinced he is real)

Wana see 58th and 79th for Kucherov and Point? It's not gonna look pretty, I'm pretty sure.

My point was never that these guys don't provide insane value. My point is that you have an incredibly low chance at getting that value.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep 1 at 7:09
Thread: Eichel overpay or underpay poll
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>gretzkyghosts</b></div><div>We can moan about poor drafts even more my friend.
Tim Murray the GM I love to hate the most.
He past on Draisaitl and took Reinhart, and past on Sergachev and took Nylander.
At least Reinhart appears to have developed finally, but Nylander is good AHL player.
Then Sweeny passing on Barzal, not once, not twice, but three times to pick DeBrusk, Senyshyn and Zboril.

I think we are pretty much in agreement on this trade, it is an over payment, DeBrusk will bounce back but in the end Buffalo will have more practice pucks, while Boston will be in the playoffs for the next 5 years.

Give me your feed back.
I do not like Hall and Eichel on the same line.
I think Cassidy should keep he Bergeron line together
Marchand Bergeron Pasternak
Haula Eichel Smith
Hall Coyle Foligno
Hall and Eichel do not need each other to play well they make their line mates play better.</div></div>

Yeah GM's actively trying to outbrain themselves is probably the most frustrating aspect to watch as a fan. Like you have 3 picks. You can pick the guy and get two guys you sneakily like.

I cautiously agree in the sense that you can get better deals - like half of that package should easily land you a Hertl who'd be amazing on this Bruins team. But again, if you push me on it, especially with Grzlcyk replaced by Carlo or so, I'd pull the trigger. But yeah, Grzlcyk and DeBrusk aren't just any throw-ins. I was gonna say DeBrusk probably wasn't that bad of a pick in that spot even in hindsight - Barzal is good but Connor that a lot of people would've liked there is overrated imo, but then I realized what a crazy draft that was.

Honestly I'd specialize them more. Eichel and Pasta for the O-zone starts /and Eichel carrying pucks if necessary) and Hall with the defensive duo to have one of the best puck winners along with two of the best guys going the other way. My biggest issue though isnt where anyone of them plays really though, its seeing Haula anywhere in that lineup. He'll cause me so much frustration this season.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep 1 at 5:23
Thread: Eichel overpay or underpay poll
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>gretzkyghosts</b></div><div>It is such a pleasure to hear words of wisdom on this site.
You mention O'Reilly to the Blues.
When the trade was made, nearly every pundit thought it was a good deal for both teams.

On January first after the trade the Blues were so excited with the trade, they were discussing breaking up the team at the TDL.
Six months later they are holding the cup.

But you also mentioned the Thornton trade.
In past 15 years or so, I would say Boston has lost three trades by wide margins.
Of course the Thornton deal, but what do they have to show for Wheeler and Seguin?
About the same as the Sabres have from losing Kane, O'Reilly and Lehner.
Three players that the Sabres gave up multiple picks and former first round picks to obtain.
Now have Thompson to show for all of those trades.

I could even add Kessel to the Boston ledger.
Initially it looked as Boston won the trade by a wide margin getting Seguin and Hamilton, but where are they now?
While Kessel got to hoist two cups.

So for Buffalo the past 10 years they have lost both ends of the trades.
When they got the best player in the deal and when they traded that player away.

Boston on the other hand, trades away great players and still manages to be in cup contention every year.
Buffalo is the laughing stock of the league now, it all started when Pegula took over the team.

I imagine when the dust settles the Sabres will have bucket of pucks to show for trading Reinhart, Ristolainen and Eichel.
The same one Boston has for trading away, Thornton, Wheeler and Kessel.

The difference is Buffalo has practice puck, while Boston pucks are from the Stanley Cup playoffs.</div></div>

Yeah. I do think there are a lot of difficult concepts in here to grapple with as well. On O'Reilly for example, I just disagreed with popular opinion even then. Stl was shafted by goaltending for a while when they were playing pretty well and I created mocks trading Mittelstadt for Tarasenko - how crazy would that have been. But no, instead the typical defensive fan goes "my prospect will become great, no player I could trade for is as good" until the trade actually happens and then they flip.

And this brings me to my next point, cause you lay it out really well. The Bruins have made TERRIBLE decisions, potentially more than any winning franchise this millenium (although Chicago comes to mind). But they've been lucky. And I'm the first fan to recognize that. The front office of the team I prefer makes terrible decisions. Getting Dougie and Seguin? No thanks, I'll flip that for more senseless mid-round picks, think I won big in Brandon Carlo, and in reality let the same core players we got lucky with picking late in the first, in the second and in the 3rd round carry the team.

And one has to remember - even if there are Brad Marchands, or more recently Brayden Points or whatever past the first round, or players like Pasta late in the second;
NOBODY KNOWS WHO THEY ARE. IF THEY DID THEY WOULDNT GO IN THE 2-3RD ROUNDS.
Like this is not a consistent strategy. If you over time accumulate, or trade aging players or for bad contracts, you can gather enough to make it likely at least some turn into NHLers. Arizona might have something to show for their like 8 3rd rounders next year, but Buffalo probably won't for giving up Taylor Hall.

BUT, I was really appreciated with what they got for Ristolainen. Good on them.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep 1 at 5:08
Thread: Eichel overpay or underpay poll
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NYR1983</b></div><div>While in real life 4 quarters make a dollar and is equivalent, we all agree that it’s not the same in sports. All these pieces likely will never amount to a JE. However, the value here is great, there’s like 6-8 quarters worth to the JE dollar bill. The problem I see is a bunch of these guys aren’t going to fit BUF today or down the road. Those guys need to be flipped again which is dumb. But, all those picks could become players that are slightly under JE quality. We know how late Pasta, Kuch, Point, etc went and they very well could find some gems making this trade look terrible for BOS.</div></div>

So - the expected value of a 24th overall pick exists. Even with the players you mentioned though, you need like 10+ of them to get a player of Jack Eichels quality. 3-4 is nothing. Like grab 5 random numbers between 20 and 30, check who were drafted in those spots 2012-16 or something. I'm sure you'll find that those 6-8 quarters are in fact nickels if you look closely.