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MelonVK

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Forum: NHL SigningsJul. 12, 2022 at 3:55 p.m.
Thread: Colorado Avalanche signed Valeri Nichushkin (8 Years / $6,125,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>drewjenkins</b></div><div><strong>I agree 100% with everyone above.</strong>





<strong>2018-19</strong> | DAL | 57 games - 10 points = <strong>14</strong> point pace | Playoffs = <strong>00</strong> point pace
<strong>2019-20</strong> | COL | 65 games - 27 points = <strong>34</strong> point pace | Playoffs = <strong>16</strong> point pace
<strong>2020-21</strong> | COL | 55 games - 21 points = <strong>31</strong> point pace | Playoffs = <strong>24</strong> point pace
<strong>2021-22</strong> | COL | 62 games - 52 points = <strong>68</strong> point pace | Playoffs = <strong>62</strong> point pace

<strong>This is the literal definition of one good season (at least statistically).</strong>
And I agree that he's always been a solid forechecker and two-way player.
But none of his other seasons warrant anything near $6,100,000 x 8 years.
Without last season his offers would be about half the AAV and half the term.

<strong>Nichushkin is 100% capable of living up to this contract.</strong>
But saying it's not based on one season is complete blasphemy.
And saying it's not risky ignores his age + many outlier contract years.</div></div>

Please don't say "one strong year, at least statistically" as if there is one determining statistic for this. I would, of course, argue that point totals are a poor way of measuring not only impact, but more importantly for a guy like Val and his previous situation - potential impact. His ice-tilting numbers have always been among the best in the league; Colorado is just the first team to give him minutes and teammates to do that effectively and at a larger scale.

You could of course ask him to repeat this on a 2-year prove-it type deal or so, but then you're going to end up paying 8+ mil on a long-term cotnract when he successfully repeats the underlying numbers he's been pumping out for years. Nobody that tracks microstats or value any type of regression model is surprised at this development for Nichuskin.

The closest comparison in terms of this contract I believe is the one Marchand signed a few years back. Marchand is actually similar, cause he was played further down the lineup for seemingly no reason, and then exploded offensively when moved to the top line. I would say Nichuskin is better, less prone to suspension, and I beleive (cba checking) also slightly younger at the time of signing.

Oh and I'm a Bruins fan.
Forum: NHL SigningsJul. 11, 2022 at 6:13 p.m.
Thread: Colorado Avalanche signed Valeri Nichushkin (8 Years / $6,125,000 AAV)
Capfriendly chatters once again showing they have no concrete way of evaluating play-driving or defensive abilities. Val Nichuskin does two things really well, and those things are maybe the most important ones in comparison to their subtle nature: He makes the opposition score less, and he makes his team mates score more.

Instead people on this board are firmly attached to players reaping the rewards off of the backs of Nichuskin-types. How many people dragged Chicago for signing Kane for not only a much more expensive contract, but even more so in relative terms? Kane does less, but what he does *looks* better (because goals and assists are easy math, and defensive work and ice-tilting metrics is more difficult math), so people are fine with it. Nichuskin has been a top-3 forward on Colorado since his arrival, and this is a no-brainer.
Forum: NHL TradesJul. 5, 2022 at 5:27 p.m.
Thread: (TBL/NSH) - McDonagh for Myers, Mismash
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>justaBoss</b></div><div><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Julien BriseBois said it was not a "pleasant" experience having to ask Ryan McDonagh to waive no-trade, called him one of best d-men in league. But became "odd man out" when considering contracts for Sergachev, Cirelli, Cernak, Colton, Foote going forward.</p>— Joe Smith (@JoeSmithTB) <a href="https://twitter.com/JoeSmithTB/status/1543659242640506881?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">July 3, 2022</a></blockquote>



Brisebois saying this kinda has a point. McDonagh's performance at least right now is enough to warrant at least close to the amount he's earning now, but circumstance forced them to move on from McDonagh.

NSH saves themselves from offering such contract to a pylon like Chiarot and get themselves some actual quality with pretty much no cost. I can't see how this is a L for them either.</div></div>

No way the car salesman is saying the car runs smoothly???
Forum: NHL SigningsMar. 21, 2022 at 3:30 p.m.
Thread: Boston Bruins signed Hampus Lindholm (8 Years / $6,500,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>I could argue that Holl doesn't play the PP and plays hard minutes against top minutes. But I'm not saying Holl is nearly as good a Lindholm, but for all the criticism Holl and most Leaf Dmen get on CF, they must be doing something right.</div></div>

Good job for making this about the Leafs..

Well, he's playing on a good team. The sum of all Leafs players is pretty much their standing position. All we can argue is what players contributed how much to it. If you suggest Holl has anything but a very, very, minor positive (if at all) impact, then that only removes from what Matthews or Nylander, or some actual good player I would attribute most of the success to, does
Forum: NHL SigningsMar. 20, 2022 at 3:53 p.m.
Thread: Boston Bruins signed Hampus Lindholm (8 Years / $6,500,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>I know I'm not making a good comparison because stats don't tell the picture. But...

Lindholm..In 60 games, 22 points, zero plus minus. Bruins paid to get him, and then a 28 year old gets a 6.5m X 8 contract

The worse Dman in the NHL according to CF followers, Justin Holl. 50 games, 14 points, 12 plus minus, 2m a year.

By the way there is pain for a buyout after six years. Two years of 3.6m and two years at 1.6m. total 9.8m</div></div>

I was on my way to say I don't understand, but I guess I do understand.

Here's the problem: Most people have no sound way of determining defensive ability.

Plus/minus can have the opposite effect. If you trust a player in defensive situations they will have lower plus/minus.
Hampus Lindholm heavily reduces the amount of shots taken at his goalie. That's how we know he's good defensively.
His point totals are actually fine considering the minutes he plays. His point totals should be relatively low considering he played for Anaheim and not Toronto.
Forum: NHL TradesMar. 20, 2022 at 6:35 a.m.
Thread: (ANA/BOS) - Lindholm, Curran for Vaakanainen, Moore, 1st, 2nd, 2nd
A few opinions:

Lindholm can be a #2 on a contender while Chiarot shouldn’t be more than a #4 ideally.
Vaakanainen is 23 without looking like anything besides a bottom pairing D in the league. He’s perhaps not very deserving of the status he still seems to have.
This will have no positive effect if it’s Reilly he’s going to take a top 4 spot from. It’s Carlo that should be on the third pairing or traded.
A 1st and two 2nds still hurts and if you’re not trading for rentals I still think you should trade at the draft to maximize value.
Dumping Moore is great but he was also so incredibly predictably not the guy to sign. And then they repeat it with Forbort…
Keeping DeBrusk matters.

This seems fine to me.

No wait the Bruins still don’t have a 2C, why are they doing this? It’s so sad, cause when you’re thinking of last season and what’s different now, I don’t know how you ever conclude this is the missing piece.
Forum: NHL TradesMar. 18, 2022 at 7:16 p.m.
Thread: (FLA/MTL) - Smilanic, 1st, 4th for Chiarot
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KSIxSKULLS</b></div><div>But if the going value for a top 4 rental is a 1st round pick, then it's not overpaying because that's what they are worth.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>drambui</b></div><div>at some point looking at the deadline deals we are seeing, if we feel everyone is overpaying, its means maybe we dont have the right idea of the price on the market.</div></div>

You understand that you have built a tautology? No one overpaid cause thats literally the market price for every player at that specific time.

What I would hope to be getting at is that the value you're giving up far exceeds any potential benefit from the trade.
A first rounder at the draft got you Sam Reinhart. Schmidt a third. Dillon cost two seconds. Bean a second.
If I'm a GM then I'm just buying everyone at the draft and selling at the deadline I guess.

If you agree with this I guess we agree. But then we've constructed a statement largely built on seasonality. I think it's more constructive to talk strategy in terms of what GMs 'should' and 'should not' do. Buying at this price falls in the 'should not' category for me.