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Jun 15, 2020
2nd Favourite Team
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<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OutCold13</b></div><div>If you are just looking at the Wild roster and plucking the best available then it likely is Greenway that they grab, but I've done many mock expansion drafts and what I'm seeing is there is a surplus of good young defenseman and goalies that can't be protected some pretty good wings out there to. I could see a scenario where the Kraken take Sturm a good young bottom 6 center. Not the end of the world for the Wild but given Wild lack of centers it still hurts. My actual point is can't be certain what the Kraken want until they take it, and that will be driven by side deals and what ever else is left available.</div></div>
Au contraire mon frère...
What we know about the upcoming expansion draft and what teams will be likely giving up, or willing to give up is contrary to what you just said.
Let's start with goaltending.
Of the young goalie options out there, the literal only one of note that might be worth taking right now is Driedger out of Florida so far.
But your not going to leave the fate of your upstart franchise by taking just youth, you need veterans too. Goaltending is especially important in that regard, so who else.
Jake Allen seemed to be a lock before the season started, and I doubt that's changed. That's two, by NHL ruling you still need to pick a 3rd goalie.
Who's left now.
Marc-Andre Fluery? He's been fantastic again this year, is Methuselah, and would probably be an outstanding choice. Except, he carries a $7M contract for another 5 seasons, youch, might want to stay away from that.
Anton Khudobin? He was a virtual lock before seasons start, but has been having an absolute horrid season to date. He's younger than Fluery, costs less but again, is having a bad season.
Talbot is the same age as Khudobin, been a strong consistent league average goaltender his entire career and is having a really good season to boot. Costs slightly more than Dobby, but way less than Flower.
If I'm Francis, I'm looking at Talbot long and hard.... and liking what I see.
On defense, this is where Francis is about to make out like a bandit. The amount of extremely good defensive players he's going to have at his disposal has got to have him licking his chops.
I don't realistically see them taking either Soucy or Menell because of it. Better players will be made available, even for added depth purposes. Or moving for further assets along the way.
The forwards group by comparison is where the team will be weakest. Despite what you said, the <em>good</em> players will be few and far between. You might be able to snag 2 or maybe even 3 possible wingers of note from a team that had to go 4x4-1 to protect its defense. So it's absolutely imperative to snag the best young player with possible upside irregardless of what position they play as much as possible with a few vets for cap reasons and experience reasons sprinkled in there for good measure.
Now this is where we get into prospective players ranges and why they matter.
Is the potential pick a top six forward? Middle six forward? Top 9 forward? Bottom 9 forward? Or a Bottom six forward? And more importantly, if a young potential player with upside, in what upside range does he fall?
Foligno for as much as we love him is a bottom sixer.
Hartman is a little better, and can play a little higher in the lineup, he's a bottom niner.
Sturm is still a bottom sixer even if he’s a center and that's where the Kraken will be shallowest in terms of overall depth.
Greenway is the clear-cut choice for two reasons.
1) Of those going to be made available he's the youngest at 23, which fits the youth with upside mantra.
2) He also has the highest upside out of everyone and will be a middle sixer.
It should likely come down to Greenway or Talbot. And I pray to God they take Greenway, because as much as his loss would hurt, he's ultimately replaceable. Talbot, the least replaceable.
Don't forget Francis will be able to trade for, sign FA's, and draft for players later on. Getting the best possible player with upside is more imperative early on than getting players of positional need.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>futurehofer</b></div><div>Paraphrasing what he said, basically Guerin could think of exposing Dumba as possibly trading Dumba for $6 million in free cap space. In a flat cap environment where any Dumba trade would likely require money coming back, getting $6 million to work with would be quite valuable. Brodin's extension is kicking in, Kaprizov/Fiala/Eriksson Ek raises are coming, and whatever he tries doing to fix our center depth will all require cap space. Depending on how long the cap stays flat, the more money we have, the better.</div></div>
I am more than acutely aware of what Russo says... I listen to him religiously, but he's only said that a couple times and only within the last couple of weeks. So I'm also acutely aware that if Dumba gets taken, it's free cap space. I've made that exact point before in other treads, no less than this one on Monday.
It's ironic how you liked <a href="/users/Outcold13" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Outcold13</a>'s comment just before the final comment, which is mine, and then the thread dies after I posted.
But here's the main important point I was making in that comment.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RazWild</b></div><div>So losing Dumba isn't so much an issue of expansion concerns, as it's an issue of no longer continue affording him with the large contracts due up. At which point its more imperative to maximize return of value lost than for free. People think we lose if that happens, but if we let Seattle take Dumba, we just gained $6M in open cap space.
The point being we're in no rush or will be hurt franchise wise by going either route. Losing him for free would suck, and I can't say I'd enjoy handing Seattle a top pairing RHS OFD for free, but the cap space gained is nothing to sneeze at either.
<strong>This doesn't mean Guerin doesn't turn over every rock he can to maximize any possible returns he could get for the guy. He's been pretty vocal about what he wants. Either a 1st or 2nd line center, or top six winger is the most ideal return. But he would settle for a good center prospect who has top six potential, plus picks.</strong>
Getting cap space for Dumba being taken is nice and all. But you don't realistically protect the forward core that we have over a legitimate Top Pairing defenseman, you just don't. You protect him, take the hit elsewhere, then move him for max value once the ED is over and teams can't continue to lowball us because of it.
By letting Seattle take someone else at the ED, <strong>then</strong> moving Dumba afterwards, you gain both possible max value for Dumba <em>and</em> even more cap space then just giving up a top pairing defenseman for free.
Funny how that works, no?
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OutCold13</b></div><div>Yeah, I don't like not protecting Foligno, Sturm, and Greenway.
Might get lucky and Suter waives his NMC.
Although IMO Sturm, Foligno and Hartman are the additional 3 Wild can least afford to lose.
Dumba is the better player than Risto and I think the Sabres Right side defense would then go Dumb, Risto, Joki. Then you look at the left and you have Dahlin, who is a mess right now, and they need to get him in their top 4 but I don't think Risto or Dumba is the right partner for the guy. This is why I don't think the Sabres should have both Risto and Dumba on the same team. Like I said though if they moved Risto then they should definitely have interest in Dumba.</div></div>
Talbot is the guy we can least likely afford to lose. With the possible exception of Moose, and he's not getting picked over Greenway. None of them are, except possibly Talbot.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Saskleaf</b></div><div>You know, I'm interested to here your thoughts on the wild at the expansion draft. Don't Parise and Zucc have NMC's? So, then obviously Kaprisoz and Fiala are protected, leaving a guy like Eriksson ek exposed, so maybe they do go 7-3. Or is Kaprisoz exempt? Am I missing a crutial detail?</div></div>
Kaprizov is exempt, we don't have to protect him.
Parise and Zuccarello have NMC's, so have to be protected. Fiala and Eriksson-Ek would be too.
On defense Suter, Spurgeon, and Brodin all have NMC's as well. They're all automatically protected too. Which leaves a open protection spot for Dumba.
Which pretty much leaves Greenway, Foligno, Hartman, Sturm and Rask the available forwards at expansion.
Soucy on defense or maybe Menell if Seattle wants him instead.
Talbot will be the exposed goalie.
None of Sturm, Hartman or Rask is getting selected over either Greenway or Foligno. And of those two you gotta think Seattle goes the younger power forward in Greenway.
Flip a coin for Soucy or Menell, they're both 4-6 type defenseman.
Then there's Talbot, he is honestly the only one I'm really concerned about losing. His loss aside from maybe Foligno's would hurt the most. Everyone else is replaceable.
It would be between either Greenway or Talbot if I was Francis.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dzmets</b></div><div>More realistic return would be
2021 or 2022 1st</div></div>
That's a hard no.
The Wild like Buffalo are strong on depth for the right side. We can afford to lose Dumba. But we have less depth on the left. Barely any, in fact. Brodin is not just our best defenseman, he's the only top pairing LD we have beyond Suter. Soucy is strictly a 4-6 type defenseman, and O'Rourke has 2nd pairing potential but is 3-4 years away. Suter is Methuselah, but won't be able to stay in the top 4 for too much longer. Daemon Hunt is most likely a 3rd pairing guy and Simon and Filip Johansson likely never see the NHL.
That trade as is destroys our depth on the left. Not going to happen.
Furthermore, Brodin just received a new contract that takes effect starting next year. Which also included a NMC, which already did take affect, and not to be rude... but... he's not waiving to go to Buffalo.
That deal is like it or not, dead on arrival. So it's not realistic at all. I get wanting Brodin, but isn't really necessarily the best target from Buffalo's standpoint, as you already have Dahlin. You may be chalk full of RD prospects and players, but none that are as good as Dumba. He instantly becomes your best D-man on the right. But given rebuilding concerns, you could still move Dumba for more assets if that's what it takes. Both Boldy and Khovanov fill needs on your roster, even after a rebuild. The pakage I offered is an extremely good one and fair to boot. I would take that if I was Adam's.
I'd suggest taking Johnson at the draft and then one of the big three of Wright, Lambert, or Savoie in 22. In a few seasons you'd have a forward core consisting of...
That's a pretty deep lineup, one that would be pretty skilled with plenty of depth scoring as well.
That's my .02 cents, anyway.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>alex_ouellet</b></div><div>Wild are losing Dumba at expansion draft anyways. May as well get some offense value instead of losing him for nothing</div></div>
No, we're not. Dumba isn't likely on the roster in two years maybe not even next year, but he is absolutely protected in any and all expansion draft scenarios. There's this little thing in the expansion draft where a team can go 4 forwards - 4 defenseman and 1 goalie.
Maybe you've heard of it?
Greenway, Soucy, and Talbot will be those left exposed. Losing them to Seattle hurts, but is better than losing Dumba for free.
Bottom line, Drouin on his own isn't worth a Top Paring RHS OFD, who has been more of a two-way defenseman this year anyway, and has easily been the second best on the team behind only Brodin. On a team that currently has a top 5 defense in the league.
Drouin 1 for 1 for Dumba is an insult.
People think they can lowball us just because of the ED. They think wrong. Guerin has refused to move Dumba for better returns than what you offered us.
1) We have no need for Drouin.
2) Drouin is a winger not a center.
3) The Wild need centers. Top 6 centers, specifically. If not a top six center, than a top six <strong><em>potential</em></strong> center.
That said, Guerin turned down Monahan for Dumba 1v1. Do you still think Drouin will cut it?
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>God8069</b></div><div>All fair points, but the Rossi/Boldy part is confusing to me. For the Sabres in this trade they have to do go for best available, not need. I think it isn't much of a question that Rossi>Boldy, and especially if it's a choice, I think they'd be foolish to go Boldy. Rossi can be a 1C imo, been a big supporter of him for awhile, very sad Sabres drafted Quinn over him still. Really hope I eat my words on that statement</div></div>
Agreed, Rossi greater than Boldy. Of that, there is no dispute.
However, your not drafting the prospect, you're <em><strong>acquiring</strong></em> the prospect and heading into a rebuild where you need to start thinking strategically about how everything fits once your done. When you draft a player your looking at players who most typically won't be making an impact on the roster for at least 3-4 years. Unless you're drafting within the top ten, in which case players can jump in right away or be up to 2 years out. The margin of error and time necessary is therefore shorter.
But by acquiring a more developed prospect that's closer to the NHL, you need to start thinking about overall team fit too... the best way to put this is its kinda like trying to put a square peg in a round hole analogy. Boldy and Khovanov/Khusnutdinov provides more overall depth and deeper scoring and better overall fit than just Rossi does. You've filled more holes on the upcoming roster and players can play where they best fit and not be forced into playing a secondary position because of a overabundance at one position.
Both Rossi and Cozens are best suited to being a 2C behind a Franchise center on a true cup contending team. They are too good at the center position to reasonably play them on the wing or on a 3rd line.
Shayne Wright is considered to be the next Crosby or McDavid. Brad Lambert a Mackinnon type. Mathew Savoie is a player in the same vein as Matthews, Eichel or Barkov. They are all Franchise level centers who will out class Rossi or Cozens and force them into a 2nd line role. Rossi has top line potential, but is considered to be a low-end 1C, high-end 2C. He's on a similar level to Scheifele, Barzal, or Larkin. So he's not necessarily what you'd call a franchise center like one of those 3 that Buffalo has a chance on.... and this is where strategic fit has to start being considered.
Kent Johnson has playmaking skills on par with Rossi, but there's a good chunk of people who think He'll be a winger in the NHL. This is perfect. Draft him in this years upcoming draft, and one of Wright, Lambert, or Savoie in 2022 and your team is literally going to be a top-six monster with added scoring depth... which is another major issue that Buffalo has.
Obviously, things and players could change and there are bad contracts to consider. But the lines above iterate my point. Players and lines complement eachother, are well balanced, and the overall roster is deeper more skilled and should provide much better depth scoring.
You've filled two major holes who fit the roster better instead of just one player who may or may not wind up on the wing or push Cozens to the wing instead.
My point is that keeping Rossi is more beneficial for us for our own center depth and Buffalo taking Boldy and Khovanov/Khusnutdinov is the smarter option for Buffalo due to a sped up rebuild, requiring less holes to fill and increased depth in its offense.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>God8069</b></div><div>Really think this gets outbid, can agree Dumba + Rask in the deal makes sense, but Boldy as a prospect I am a big fan of, but feel a team could outbid that easily as the main piece. Khoanov + a late second = a first? Idk about that, plus I feel like especially late firsts in this draft are not being valued the same by Buffalo, and the league due to the poor draft class and major uncertainty. If they were, then why wouldn't CBJ/NJ offer their 3 firsts and a prospect and just get Eichel?
Fits requirement with cap + Boldy and O'Rourke > Rask + Dumba. This is a deal that I could even see being outbid still, depending on how it all falls in a bidding war. But personally if I was Minnesota, I would do this trade</div></div>
Um, NOOOO.... I SAID THE 2ND WAS IN <strong>2022</strong> NOT 2021. 2020 was considered an extremely deep draft, but not the deepest in NHL history. Either 2003 or 2015 take those honors.
2022 is currently projected to be deeper then the 2003/2015 drafts and 2023 more or less on par with 2020 at a minimum.
A 2nd round pick in possibly the deepest draft in NHL history combined with a potential top six center DOES equal a 1st in my opinion. And the only team, that maybe outbid's that is maybe the Rangers, as I don't see LA getting into the Eichel fight. Same for New Jersey. CBJ don't have the resources or assets to get a deal done, except Laine, which defeats the purpose. I chose Khovanov simply because he's 2-3 years away, I could've switched it to Khusnutdinov who's ceiling is higher, but is 3-4 years away from the NHL by comparison, so I would think Khovanov fits their time-line better. Khusnutdinov is probably considered to have value at around a low 1st, so I would swap out the 2nd in 2022 for our 3rd rounder in 2022 instead.
I also just don't think Buffalo should or needs to get a top line potential center back for Eichel, just one with top six potential. In fact, it's better if they don't. Because the bottom line is they're heading for a rebuild if Eichel is moved and at which point I would be looking to get assets back to cover as many holes that I have as possible.
The trade I offered does that, with two prospects of positions of need vs one plus futures.
Don't forget that the Sabers are in position to draft one of Beniers or Johnson, both of whom are on the same level of talent as Rossi. More importantly, Buffalo is all but guaranteed to be in a position to draft one of Wright, Lambert, or Savoie in 2022 if they move Eichel. All of whom have floors of a Barkov.
So as I said, the only team that I think outbid's that is realistically the Rangers, and I don't see them coughing up more than what I offered either.
As for your counter offer, it's fair but I would insist that one of the 1st's be one of our 2021 1st's instead.
I personally wouldn't move Rossi, I would want to keep him for our needs at 2C. Sabers already have Cozens for that, will have Beniers or Johnson, and likely one of Wright/Lambert/Savoie as their future 1C, plus either Khovanov or Khusnutdinov as additional depth.
I would be looking for Boldy back as part of the trade, as the main centerpiece as you put it. Not Rossi.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Saskleaf</b></div><div>Maybe it's just me, but Eichel to Minnisota makes a lot of sense.
If Minny got a 1c like Eichel, since that's their biggest hole by far, they could be a serious cup contender long term.</div></div>
Problem is, there are two reasons why this proposal gets shot down by Guerin.
1) Guerin has been quite vocal and stated that he isn't willing to give up futures or the farm just to make a trade. Even if that trade is for a 1C like Eichel, he isn't going to jeopardize the teams future for one player with a massive overpay. Eichel, specifically, isn't worth our top two prospects who're both top 50 prospects in the NHL no less.
It would have to be for one or the other, not both. Rossi <em><strong>or</strong></em> Boldy.
2) Even more importantly, a trade for Eichel by Minnesota standards <strong>cannot</strong> be just strictly for futures. There are major cap concerns that we simply cannot ignore when you trade for a $10M contract, and are already looking at a minimum of $15-18M needed for resigning Kaprizov, Fiala, and Eriksson-Ek to new contracts. Which doesn't even include Hartman who'll probably cost another $3M or so.
That's out of a grand total of roughly $23M in open cap space this upcoming offseason. And this is all before any prospective Eichel trade even materializes.
<strong>Cap needs to be going Buffalo's way, and this cannot, once again, strictly be just for futures as was proposed in this trade.</strong>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mhroblak</b></div><div>Victor Rask? Lol what does he have to do with any of this?
If you mean that’s the type of guy Seattle has to take to get a 1st from Minnesota as opposed to Soucy.... I can’t say a 3rd is enough to get them to take Soucy over Greenway. If you’d rather part ways with Greenway over Soucy + a higher draft pick then that’s all fine, but I don’t think I’ve seen one Minnesota fan on this site who’d be cool with losing Greenway for nothing.</div></div>
Yes, that's what I meant.
Viktor Rask => Cap Dump/Bad Contract => 1st
I don't know who you've talked to either, but the bottom line is losing Greenway for free, while it would suck and hurt, hurts <em>less</em> than coughing up a 1st rounder for them to take Soucy instead.
We can afford to lose Greenway. We can afford to lose Soucy. Right now, it would hurt most if we lost Talbot due to how he's played all year, and the calming presence he's brought to us in between the pipes. It's true, Greenway has been great this year, but his strong start has cooled off significantly the past two weeks and is close to slipping back to being the inconsistent player that got chewed out by Guerin this off-season.
By value Greenway is worth a low 1st. Soucy a mid to late 2nd. You're essentially telling Minnesota fans that we have to overpay in order to keep Greenway for a 1st + 2nd.
Right, sure... that infinitely makes more sense than just letting Seattle take Greenway. Glad we're on the same page now....