Avatar

Reason

Member Since
Jul. 20, 2020
Forum Posts
1064
Posts per Day
1.1
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 26, 2022 at 11:30 p.m.
Thread: trade deadline
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>kster34</b></div><div>Let’s just do some math - typically 5-6 1st rounders dealt at TDL every year (don’t have exact numbers, but seems about right)…this year is one of the deepest drafts in a long time plus we could have blue chip rentals available like Horvat, ROR, Kane, Bertuzzi, Toews, Tarasenko, Gavrikov, etc available but one of those 5-6 teams is going to obtain Luke Schenn with a 1st. I seriously doubt it</div></div>

My response quote shows that I am not disagreeing, however the poster stated “There’s no way”. If Marek, who does a podcast with arguably the biggest media NHL insider in Friedman, says he wouldn’t be shocked to see it happen then I’ll take his knowledge and intel over mine or any other AGM’er and say they is a possibility, even if I believe it to be unlikely.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 20, 2022 at 7:28 p.m.
Thread: Gut job Trying not to be a homer
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>How does Blackwood, Walsh, 1st have “zero chance”

While Bahl, Mercer works?</div></div>

Blackwood was hyped at one point, he hasn't had a decent statistical year since 19-20. The Canucks just paid a 2nd and had to take Stillman in order to move two years of Dickinson who was under preforming but still an NHL player and his cap is slightly less than Blackwood's. Walsh is fine to add but he is not a big enough carrot for Vancouver to move Demko, in my opinion he cancel's out the cost to move Blackwood.
I see your offer as essentially a late 1st for Demko. It would have to be a big offer for the Canucks to even consider moving Demko and if they do there should be significantly better offers. For those reasons, I believe there is a zero chance the Canucks accept your offer.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 20, 2022 at 1:07 a.m.
Thread: Gut job Trying not to be a homer
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>Leafs really have no interest in Horvat...another centre. If the Leafs were going to spend assets it would be for Dman or maybe a LWer.
What's with the Jersey trade for Kerfoot.?
I agree Pens are in a win mode, but Pens have enough aging players on long term contract. Miller's extension is just bad value in cap strapped league.</div></div>

I agree with your comments. Miller to Pitt is again, one of the few teams that I could POSSIBLY see having interest in the player. Overall I think it's more likely Miller will be in Vancouver for a long long time.

The idea behind the Kerfoot trade came from a couple of different angles, I probably overthought it.

- According to Cap Friendly NJ has just over 1.1M in cap space, if they trade Mercer for Demko they are adding about 4.1M in Cap. I essentially look at Blackwood being a dump in order to help make room for Demko and moving poor contracts isn't cheap.
- Almost every Leaf's AGM trade I see on here has Kerfoot going for either a 2nd or 3rd and that's without retention.
- If NJ wanted a Mercer replacement, Kerfoot could potentially fit that role.
- Trade would be based on NJ staying near the top of the standings so that the pick is a late 1st rounder.

Basically Kerfoot valued at 3rd without retention, then Vancouver essentially eating 4.55M (2.8 for Blackwood, 1.75 for Kerfoot) so that NJ can fit Demko's cap for a very late 1st round pick.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 20, 2022 at 12:11 a.m.
Thread: Gut job Trying not to be a homer
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>We could get Kerfoot from Toronto for mid-pick…why give a 1st to Vancouver?

Just do 1st, Blackwood, prospect for Demko</div></div>

In this case Kerfoot was already traded to Vancouver. Kerfoot isn't having the best start to the year but I would assume his value is probably a 3rd no? Money is expensive to move, so a big part of the cost here would be the retention and to take back Blackwood. Of course this is all contingent on NJ staying at near the top of the standings and their 1st being a very late round pick. If NJ doesn't require the cap relief or want/need a replacement 3C then that trade could be scrapped all together.

I would not do a 1st Blackwood and prospect for Demko unless the prospect was of Mercer's caliber/projection and was either a center or RD. If the prospect played one of those two positions then it definitely makes it more simple just to have the one trade.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 4, 2022 at 11:27 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 4, 2022 at 11:14 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 4, 2022 at 9:59 p.m.
Thread: 3 blockbusters
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GMBL</b></div><div>The Leafs say, we would love to have Demko, but 1) it doesn't cost more than a 1st to move Murray, who we don't want to move at this time anyways. 2) at that high ask we will just stick with what we have.</div></div>

1) I agree Leaf’s probably want to see a bit more of Murray before making a trade like this. My thinking is this trade would happen closer to the deadline and if Murray continued playing at the level he has the last few seasons.

2) If Murray is still playing at the level he has been the last few seasons and TO wants to try going into the playoffs with him I foresee yet another very early playoff exit. An elite goalie could make TO a legitimate cup contender, this one is signed for 4 more years at a very good contract for a team that could use the cap space.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 4, 2022 at 9:34 p.m.
Thread: 3 blockbusters
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>oliver_wahlstrom</b></div><div>Millers value is a fraction of what it was 9 months ago. He is no longer that valuable superstar asset... he is worth very little with his extension</div></div>

I agree that his overall value is likely lower because I think there will be less overall parties interested, I disagree that he has “very little value” after signing a reasonable extension.
The NYI had a deal in place for Miller at the draft but backed out because they couldn’t talk contract extension with him, that deal was rumoured to be a 1st +. Raty is a good prospect but he’s not an elite prospect. The most recent NHL affiliated prospect ranking I can find is from Daily Faceoff and has him ranked as the 56th best affiliated prospect.
I think the value is fair, a 1st and good prospect, and the interest should be there now (unless Lou has soured on the Canucks management team) that the contract has been extended and the NYI didn’t have any major additions this off-season, especially when they were trying hard to add.