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SimonSelaars3

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Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 16, 2022 at 2:14 a.m.
Thread: Billys mistakes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>wabit</b></div><div>Have you watched Toews this year? He looks as good as ever.

I'm not sure Larkin stays in DET. It might be home for him, but how long does he want to play for a non-Playoff team? I mean I figured J Hockey was going home to NJD, not signing in CBJ last offseason.

I don't care if they trade this year's 1st, as long as it's Playoff protected. It'll be the same best since '03 noise for the next draft, just like every year.

Actually Greenway's career year wasn't last season. It was the season before.</div></div>

Toews looks as good as ever because Chicago is pumping him up to get as much as possible when they trade him this season.

Even if Larkin decides to leave Detroit, we don’t have the money to pay him.

Horvat I like the idea of but like I said, if im Guerin im not giving up a 2023 1st for him. If you kept up with prospects you’d know that essentially every team picking in the 1st round in 2023 has a real shot at an Allstar level player, that’s how good these 2023 draft prospects are.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 16, 2022 at 2:10 a.m.
Thread: Billys mistakes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>wabit</b></div><div>If he was in the AHL (or college) I would care. As it stands he does nothing to make the team better during the Kaprizov years. I see dark times ahead when he's shipped off because he won't re-sign in MN.

Most prospects turn into nothing, and over-rated/hyped. It's not worth the investment for me. I only pay a lot of attention to the ones that interest me. Not many 5'10" players interest me unless they have elite skills.</div></div>

That’s pretty head scratching considering the majority of our top prospects play outside of the AHL and NCAA. I’m also not sure what your deal is with players that are 5”10 and smaller, size has very little factor in NHL probability especially when it comes to forwards, I’d say at least 50% of the NHLs best players are 5”10 or under.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 16, 2022 at 1:37 a.m.
Thread: Billys mistakes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>wabit</b></div><div>He's .5ppg in the KHL this year, and he's another 5'10" LHS C/W. Those are nothing special stats. There is also no guarantee he'll come over play in the AHL (he's not NHL ready). I'd take Kunin on the current team over the lottery ticket.

I also don't put much stock in most prospects in general. So having Judd means nothing to me.</div></div>

He’s the highest scoring U21 player in the 2nd hardest league in the world, those are nothing stats to you? He’ll be signed as soon as his KHL contract ends after the 24-25 season. And to top that offense isn’t even his strong suit, he’s an elite defender and a PK ace.

If he were in the AHL right now he’d be flirting with a point per game and would potentially get a call up if someone on the big club were to go down. You should follow prospects more often because it’s about the only thing that has saved Guerin from losing his job, and you know…. Because they’re the future of the franchise.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 16, 2022 at 1:27 a.m.
Thread: Billys mistakes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>wabit</b></div><div>$3m is a fair/good deal for what Greenway is as a player and what he adds to the lineup. He is really good at puck possession and opens up the ice for the rest of the team. He didn't just trip over his skates to get those assists. Size is something that can't be taught, and is desperately needed for this Wild team.

The team is a 1C (and health) away from being a cup contender.

Kap/Horvat (Toews, Larkin)/Zucc
Greenway/JEE/Boldy
Foligno/Freddy G/Hartman
Shaw/Dewar/Duhaime (maybe a TDL 4th liner pickup)

The d-corps and goalies look to be good enough.</div></div>

Based off what all those players did last year I’d agree with you but none of those players that had career years last season have shown anything to indicate that they’re going to replicate it, and even then, they went on to lose in the 1st round.

Toews hasn’t been a 1C for awhile now, Horvat could be a viable option but if I’m Guerin I’m not trading a 2023 1st to make it happen, and while Larkin is a beautiful thought, he’s never leaving Detroit.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 16, 2022 at 1:08 a.m.
Thread: Billys mistakes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>wabit</b></div><div>Foligno and JEE were a middling 3rd liners without Greenway. Greenway made both of them better.
GREEF: 25GA/5GA, 430:01 ToI, 60.4
JEE/Foligno: 9GF/10GA, 200:39 ToI
JEE/Greenway: 5GF/4GA 88:13 ToI
Foligno/Greenway: 7GF/5GA, 115:42 ToI
Greenway was 59th (tied) in 5v5 assists in the last 2 seasons. In a 5v5 A/60 he was tied with Barkov for 35th (min 1100 ToI filter).

I don't like many of Billy G's moves, but Greenway was a good signing. My list of mistakes is much longer than yours.</div></div>

My list is much longer than what I actually listed as well lol. Judd has been the saving grace of Guerin’s tenure, if we weren’t loaded with quality prospects right now Guerin is probably on the hot seat this season and potentially out of a job at the end of the season.

As for Greenway, I agree he makes Ek and Foligno better but are we really going to pay a guy 3 million for 3 years who’s only purpose on the team is to elevate 2 other players while doing little to nothing individually? Either way this years team is far from the reunion of the Greef line away from being a cup contender, and if you’re not contending for a cup then the roster is due for some changes in my opinion.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 16, 2022 at 12:01 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 15, 2022 at 11:49 p.m.
Thread: Unpopular and unlikely
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RazWild</b></div><div>And that right there is the crux of it. He's still good. So there's no need to move him. And we have a defensive prospect pool that'll be pushing for ice time in the next two years.

But you don't move him now before they're ready. You move him in two years when his NMC changes to a 10-team M-NTC, and that $7M coming off our cap hit is <strong>most</strong> crucial in getting through the last year of the heavy buyouts, and when Addison and Faber are pushing to become the teams 1-2 punch on the right side. In two years time.

Trading him now is, frankly, premature. Yes, his value will be less, and you potentially will have to pay to have someone take him. But why are we trading him now, just so we can spend that cap space regardless and then find ourselves screwed for having done so two years from now.

Move him now, spend the opened cap space over the next two years, and lose the flexibility of moving $7M in cap space while having $14.7M in deadcap and having 14 roster spots to fill in 2024.

It doesn't make sense to move him.

Not yet.</div></div>

It doesn’t make sense if you truly believe this is a cup contending team. As of right now, this is nowhere close to a cup contending team and they don’t have any reinforcements that would make me think otherwise. To me, this current team is another 1st round exit at best and more likely a team that just barely misses the playoffs.

As for Spurg still being good, you’re right. The only issue with that is as soon as he’s no longer good, nobody will want any part of him, therefor leaving us paying a washed up defenseman 7.75 a year.

Good GMs make moves when the moves make sense, great GMs make moves before the moves make sense. Several teams in the league are currently reaping the benefits of trading star players right before their age catches up to them and I would prefer to be one of those teams, not the other way around.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 15, 2022 at 11:09 p.m.
Thread: Unpopular and unlikely
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RazWild</b></div><div>1) He's the team Captain.

That's the first reason why it'd be stupid.

2) He was literally our best defenseman by analytics last year. By a wide margin.

And low and behold. He looks like our best defenseman again by far <em>this</em> year.

So there's reason number two, for why it'd be stupid.

3) He's still the most productive defenseman in Wild history and currently sits as the longest tenured player on roster.

If hating on his contract and height are the sole reasons and qualifications for fans having *1/2 a brain*. I'm rather glad I'm not one of them. Because I'd rather use the full 100% of it and keep the player that will likely be the second player jersey number to be retired by the franchise at some point.

If for no other reason than for holding off while he's still one of our two best defenseman and he holds a NMC in his back pocket. Which changes to a 10-team M-NTC on July 1st 2024, which is just in time for the heaviest and hardest year of the deadcap to navigate.

Because you see, <strong><em>THAT IS</em></strong> when you trade him. We can afford to keep him and pay him this year and next, but the option to move him at that point will give us the wiggle room we need in order to navigate the final year of the deadcap.

Yes, moving him now would likely net you better assets. But you also lose the flexibility to free up cap space when you most need it two seasons from now.

Think smarter not harder.</div></div>

Spurgeon is a stud and has been a stud for his entire tenure with the Wild. I love watching the dude play and have loved watching him since he entered the league with us.

That being said, this team is going into a transitional period and he will be turning 33 years old two weeks from now with probably the highest value he will ever have.

If you can net a 2023 1st or 2024 1st for him at the deadline or during the next off season then you’d have to at least consider it. He’s bound to regress at some point over the next 2-3 years and if you’re a GM you don’t want to be stuck paying 35-36 year old defenseman 7.75m a year after he’s regressed. Look at OEL for example, that’s a nightmare situation for a GM and I’d rather be on Arizona’s side of that deal, not stuck overpaying a washed up defenseman.

None of that is meant to underestimate Spurgeon and his capabilities, it’s just what happens to the human body once you start reaching a certain age.

Lastly, I hope Spurgeon does defy the deterioration of the human body and plays lights out until he decides to retire but considering the circumstances, trading him within the next year isn’t a bad idea in my mind. Especially with Addison thriving and Faber looking to join the team next season.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 11, 2022 at 12:46 a.m.