exo2769

exo2769
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Forum: Chicago Blackhawks3 hours ago
Thread: Dach Question
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HatterTParty</b></div><div>Absolutely, I’ll even admit he had a good game. He showed that he’s capable of using that big frame and the puck control was clean and confident. I definitely liked his end to end rush for the assist (albeit, kinda sucked the goal was a fluke). But yes, very good game. As you said, not perfect, but who is at 18. I’ll be honest though, I just really really wished his offensive game at 18 was more polished if he was allowed to stay with the team. That’s the big thing I’m very critical on him about. Two things I really see him improve on more are his shot and decision making. We both see eye to eye on the reacting vs thinking area. Lastly, maybe this is just me, but one area I’m still waiting to see his passing game get to another level. He passes well, but I really wanna see him on 2 v 1s actually convert more with teammates. I may never fully like this kid because I just don’t like guys of his archetype (I’m barely 5’9’ and have been playing 25 years, go figure). I like speed and dynamic play, like bure and mackinnon. However, he is a hawk, and I have to accept it will most likely be that way for years to come.

As a side note, is anyone else kind of nervous about kubalik with bowman in charge? Honestly, considering panarin and kahun, I’m a little nervous another great find is gonna be given away. You can see the potential in this team, I just don’t trust bowman to be the man manage the cap and keep the team together.</div></div>

I think Mac is more than speed. He's got a lot of power and a heck of a shot. It's why he was a #1OA pick. I am indeed a little worried about Bowman/Kubalik. In 2 ways. A.) Bowman will either give him a $4M contract...way too much...or...B.) Trade him for less than his value. I give Bowman a TON of credit for that steal of a trade. Kubalik for a 5th rounder... WOW great trade. But he can't fall back into the old ways where Bickell, Panik, Manning, Kruger, Seabs got contracts either work more than they provide...or are payback contracts *cough cough* Seabs. Give him a 1 year prove it contract...or just let him go to arbitration.

As a side note. I also give a ton of credit to Bowman for continuously churning these guys out! Am I right?!?! Panarin, Kempny, Rutta, Kahun, Kubalik...all for free! That's a very underrated sign of a good GM.
Forum: Chicago Blackhawks12 hours ago
Thread: Dach Question
<a href="/users/HatterTParty" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@HatterTParty</a> Come one now Hatter. Give the kid some credit. The game wasn't perfect, but he played DARN good last night. I said not even a week ago that I'd like to see him with a little more strength with the puck. Well DANG! He showed some speed and strength last night. Probably his best game of the year. Out paced a couple Dmen. Had guys hanging all over him. Kept control of the puck. Finally got a tally. Again, not perfect. He's still 18 years old...for 1 more day... One game doesn't make a break someone, but I think I saw shades of Hossa with all those guys hanging on him. Going in the corner with literally 3 Jets on him and he's just fighting for the puck against all 3 of them.

Some more constructive criticism...only because I'm superstitious and every one in every job should strive for continuous improvement. Never settle.
I'd like to see him engage more...this is still the original topic we've discussed. Whether it's lazy ( I don't believe so ) or thinking vs reacting. He's getting better and while his point didn't come from the PP...I liked his play there too. Crash the nets...if he got elevation on the dish from Kane that would have been a goal. Can't get too mad. Toews missed a wide open net against OTT. It happens.


<a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/298255&amp;post_id=1232126">https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/298255&amp;post_id=1232126</a>
Forum: Armchair-GMSun at 12:10 pm
Thread: Lines
Yeah, I tend to agree with you. I also like that you didn't split of Kubalik/Toews. They're just so hot right now. It's either these lines or I might swap out Carp with Kampf. A different high energy center. Send Carpy to RW where Saad is. Saad on the same line to Left wing. Slide Zach Smith to Center and Nylander down to the 4th line. Nylander was player better earlier in the year on the 4th line too. But overall I do agree with you. I'd like this change too.

***EDIT*** I know Hawks fans got excited about last night's game, but tonight's game is FAR more important. These games within the division are huge. I know it doesn't seem like it since the Hawks have won 4 straight, but MIN (7-0 last night...even bigger than CHI) and WPG and NSH keep winning too...The Hawks need to make serious headway within their division.
Forum: Chicago BlackhawksSat at 5:10 pm
Thread: Dach Question
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HatterTParty</b></div><div>Which begs the question: did Dach really have to go to the nhl this year?</div></div>

I probably would have sent him back for a lot of reasons. Contract status for the long term probably being #1, but as far as performance...Dach's doing just as good IMO as Hughes Kakko. So I'm not disappointed, but I...typically...prefer when kids dominate their level before jumping. Lets use Jack Hughes as an example. He can go to the OHL (where ever really) and dominate. OR come to the NHL and play like he has. Definitely has speed, vision, and playmaking ability. BUT he's never going to get compared to Dach. When people talk about Jack Hughes, they're going to compare him to McDavid, Matthews, and Dahlin. Other #1 OAs, but not #3 OA picks. To me that's terribly unfair, but also how the world works. Point being. You better be sure! Let's take another Example. Our Guy Dylan Strome. Chayka was messing up his development for sure. He stunk in AZ and was traded away WITH another 1st round pick. Move to today...there aren't toooo many players younger than him that are 100% better than him. Sure, there are players out there younger than 22 that are better than him, but not THAT many.
Forum: Chicago BlackhawksSat at 4:24 pm
Thread: Dach Question
It's a good question to ask.

Getzlaf and Bergeron (ironically) both had 39 points their rookie years. Getzlaf seems to be his comp for the most part. OReilly 26 points in each of his 1st (2) years. Barkov 24 points then 36 points. Pierr Luc 48. Everyone starts differently. About half of those guys started in the NHL after they got drafted. The draft really is kinda crap shoot. Not 100%, but if we each had a crystal ball there wouldn't be any Stones, Palats, or Johnny Hockey. There are also plenty of 1-5 picks that do hardly nothing. Pool party, Olli Juolevi, Dal Colle, Nail Yakupov...heck go look at the 2012 draft Yikes! I don't think Dach is this years candidate. If anything currently Bowen Byram is the front runner there. I was wrong on that one. I tend to like Defensive forwards more than the average. I would take Bergeron over Stamkos 7 days a week. I don't think Dach is going to be a pure defensive center, but I wouldn't at all be surprised if during his career he gets some Selke votes. I see him being a 2-way player.
Forum: Armchair-GMFri at 7:58 am
Thread: Playoff Push and Homecoming
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ChiHawk</b></div><div>Tonight, another fine example of why you guys need a goalie...that goal by Atkinson especially should have been handled by Mrazek. Mrazek with an astounding .833 SV% tonight. Yes, you could upgrade TVR but at the end of the night, goaltending let the Canes down. Seen this movie before...</div></div>

Werenski's was on Mrazek. CAR technically won a challenge on a goal because offsides happened entering the zone...so while that doesn't affect the actual stats...that was a goal on Mrazek. Gardiner came and saved Mrazek on another...again not reflected in the stats. Foligno's was NOT on Petr. Fluke stick by Staal that feed a well positioned Foligno. The D was the problem on the Game winner. With that said, we talk about the differences between stats and eye test. There are games like Tampa (1/5/2020) where I can say despite letting up 3 goals...it was the Hamilton/Slavin pair that had a terrible night. That's an eye test win for Mrazek. He couldn't do anything about those 3 goals. Sometimes your best pair has an off night, but there are games like last night where he has an eye test loss. Where multiple technicalities is the reason it wasn't 5-2.
Forum: Armchair-GMThu at 6:24 pm
Thread: What wait
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HatterTParty</b></div><div>Oh boy.......

Alright, three things on Hughes and kakko. 1) Dach isn’t even in the same conversation as Hughes and kakko, he’s just not. The fact that all THREE haven’t produced as expected because they play for subpar non playoff teams. Hughes especially! Kakko is literally playing on North American ice for the first time. In the NHL! 2) Those two are the devils and rangers problem, and bringing them up for comparison is only doable if we had a chance at them. 3) Hughes with McDavid? Kakko with Laine? In what realm was this a thing?! Dach to kotkaniemi is a far better comparison.

Also, 10 5v5 points? From when, 10 weeks ago? I get what you’re trying to argue. The problem is your arguing about two guys who aren’t my problem. My problem is Dach and everyone that came after him. How Hughes and kakko do is on their teams. Moreover, your argument serves as a justification for keeping him in the NHL by comparing Dach to Hughes and kakko. Problem is, he wasn’t. In all likelihood, none of the top three were. Think about all the players who will be better served for actually developing in juniors and college from this draft. This draft may turn into the 2017 draft where hirscher and Patrick went 1-2 and heiskanen-makar-pettersson went 3-4-5. Who knows, maybe each of the top 3 this past will be worse then the ones that followed.</div></div>

The problem with your logic (in my opinion) is that you're trying to place Dach as a bust half a season into the year when he's the 3rd youngest player in the NHL. My point is that all these prospect take time. Even the #1 OA and #2 OA. Hughes ain't doing Jack right now. (See what I did there :) ) You bring up guys like Byram and Turcotte and how much better they'd be. News flash. If we re-did the draft today. Byram wouldn't be a top 10 pick. (AGAIN, he was my guy at the draft. I can just admit I was wrong) Turcotte had a terrible WJC too. Look, I'd LOVE to have Turcotte on the Hawks. I've had LOTS of friends skate for the Glenview Stars...where his uncle Sylvain coaches and they've played for him. This is NOT a personal thing. He's going to be a tremendous player. But this is supposed to be an objecetive view point. The objective view point is that the Wisconsin Badgers had more 1st round picks play in the WJC than any NHL team. If the Badgers don't win the college championship...their season is 100% a failure. You can't have 4 1st rounders playing college hockey and lose to other kids your own age. They're currently 7th in the big ten standings...out of 7 teams...so last place, BUT yes their talent has been gone for a while. I totally get that and want to recognize that too.

You can't ignore the other players in the draft. Is every single player in the draft officially a bust right now? Heck no. These are kids than need to develop. I'm happy to see Dach getting unsheltered minutes and taking hits from Borowecki/Tkachuk and get right back up. I happy to see him learning that this is a business and not a kids game. Hughes getting 70% 5V5 Ozone starts AND #1 PP time. 17 points ain't cutting it...but he's not a bust. He just needs more time to develop. All these kids do.
Forum: Armchair-GMThu at 4:59 pm
Thread: What wait
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HatterTParty</b></div><div>Two things on debrincat. First, look at debrincat’s game stats over the last month. Yes, goals are a little few and far, but he is getting assists. There’s been plenty of games where cat and strome get 2 points a piece and Dach is nothing. Second, debrincat has had a 28 goal season and 40+ goal season to start his career. Key word is START. Cat has the luxury of some rope, not to mention the way he contributes offensively through assists and plenty of shots. Dach doesn’t.

Maybe he does fill out over the summer, I hope you are right. I’d love to be wrong about him so bad. Cuz a lot of jobs and the future of a franchise hinges on who Was chosen to lead the way. I think 30 goals a year is a little like me calling him a bust though, in that we haven’t seen enough evidence to claim that. Boy I hope I’m wrong though. I just wish it woulda happened by now, at least a sign.....</div></div>

Dach...10 5v5 pts
Hughes...11 5V5 pts
Kakko... 6 5V5 pts

Where are your posts about hughes as a #1OA not being Matthews or McDavid. Or Kaapo not being Eichel or Laine yet?
Forum: Armchair-GMThu at 4:14 pm
Thread: Playoff Push and Homecoming
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Caniac555</b></div><div>So why do both Mrazek and Reimer both have positive numbers in goals allowed vs expectation?

My position is when digging into it further, the advanced analytics tell a story that the Canes team defense has NOT played up to par with expectations this season so far. Mrazek and Reimer both have won games while standing on their heads. They have both been inconsistent, but overall they have supported the team and in some cases been the reason they won.

*edited - my ‘eye test’ tells me the same thing*

When you tear into the defensive stats from an individual basis, two defenseman have been stellar (Slavin, Hamilton), while Pesce has only been average. However, Pesce has been paired with two underperforming defensive partners in Edmundson and Gardiner - both of which have drastically underperformed in relation to their defensive metrics. The only positive for Gardiner has been his underlying offensive numbers have been great (and he’s been ‘unlucky’).

I suspect the Canes (and the rumors out there support this) t believe they need to support the Goalies with another stabilizing top 4 defensive partner for Pesce. Rumors out there regarding Alec Martinez and Jones Brodin support this.</div></div>

I think we both try to use analytics in combination with the eye test. It's not like I've seen Mrazek completely fall apart for a 7 goal game. BUT when you say the defense hasn't played up to par. I see CAR being #1 in the NHL in shots allowed. I see CAR as #6 best defense in the NHL in allowing high danger opportunities. It's difficult to say (IMO) that's not "up to par." That's the sign of an amazing defense.

I hear the rumors too. I've also heard Bowman isn't looking to trade anyone and that he's actually looking to acquire. WHY??? I have no clue, but that's what I hear. I'm not suggesting your wrong on the rumors and we're 100% allowed to have different opinions. I personally don't think adding a Dman is going to help CAR. It's not really like they can get any better in shots allowed and that wouldn't solve their real problem.
Forum: Armchair-GMThu at 3:48 pm
Thread: Playoff Push and Homecoming
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Caniac555</b></div><div>Here is my issue with this...this stat actually tells me there are a handful of really good teams at HDCO% (STL, WPG, BOS, NYI, and DAL) then there are a handful of really bad teams (MTL, SJS, MIN, and DET). The middle is all relatively the same, teams 6-27 are all within one deviation from the mean, basically saying there is not a significant difference between those 23 teams. You didn’t mention that LAKs are #8 in this stat, better than WAS.

I just don’t get the point that the Goalies have to be the issue when looking at this stat. How do you go from this stat to saying to has to be the goalies and not the defense?</div></div>

That's a very fair question. To me it's...these teams have "back end issues" and we need to dig further into why each team is where they're at.

TOR is a good team and Freddie Anderson is a good goalie. They have a TERRIBLE defense. Too many offensive Dmen...Too many injuries...not a good backup goalie...etc...
SJS has Martin Jones. He's the worst starting goalie in the NHL.
NSH has a very good Defense. We saw that CAR was the 6th best in High Danger Shots allowed. NSH is right with them at 9th best. Pekka Rinne STINKS this year. So we know for NSH specifically it's because of the goalie position that NSH is 5th worst in HDCO%.
PIT is a good team. #2 in the Metro. why are they next to CAR in this category? I can tell you it's NOT Jarry and his 2.12 GAA and .930 SV%. It's their defense.

Kinda to summarize, we need to look at the backend...THEN determine what's the reason. CAR's defense is one of if not the single best D in the NHL. That leaves the goalie position.

***EDIT*** Let's look at this another way! Why is CAR and CHI soo close together? 9.1% vs 8.7%. They're different reasons. CHI has GREAT goalies, but a TERRIBLE very injured defense. They let up the 2nd most shot against and let up the MOST high danger chances over ANY NHL team. So why is their HDCO% better than CAR's? Lehner and Crow are saving their behinds.
Forum: Armchair-GMThu at 3:16 pm
Thread: Playoff Push and Homecoming
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Caniac555</b></div><div>Send link for your analytics</div></div>

Sure, It's the same link. As you scroll about half way down there are sortable columns. Go to the Team Analytics and you can click on the top row to sort. Example...Click on the very last column HDCO% and it'll sort highest to lowest.

<a href="https://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2020.html" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2020.html</a>

***EDIT*** At first I got confused by the whole opponent thing, but it makes sense when you start looking at who CAR is around. They're near the TORs, PITs, DETs, OTTs, SJSs. All teams with defensive or goalie issues. They're NOT near the BOSs, STLs, NYIs, WASs. Other quality defensive teams. That's how we can zero in on the goalie position, because it's not CARs defense.
Forum: Armchair-GMThu at 3:11 pm
Thread: Playoff Push and Homecoming
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Caniac555</b></div><div>No no no...this is the fallacy when you only look at quantitative stats not qualitative stats. The Canes are the best in the league is not giving up quantity, but the shots they have been giving up have been high danger quality shots. You have to dig further. Our 2nd and 3rd pairing defense has been getting gutted by allowing odd man rushes and wide open shots in the slot and at the net.

The Canes will add a defenseman to slot next to Pesce (maybe Jonas Brodin from Wild) and not a Goalie.</div></div>

No I agree with you on the overall shot vs quality shot. CAR is the best in the league in just plain old shots against. CAR is the 6th best in the league for quality shots against. (Per Hockey Reference) SO THEN...why is it that they're tied for 10th....worst...team in % of those High Danger shots actually going in the net and turning into goals. It's because their goaltending is poor.
Forum: Armchair-GMThu at 3:00 pm
Thread: Playoff Push and Homecoming
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ChiHawk</b></div><div>I'm looking at the analytics and can't see why they don't suggest Carolina has a very stout defense but not great goaltending. Every stat I'm looking at says the goaltending is average at best.</div></div>

I'm seeing that too. I'm also seeing that their D is ranked #1 in the NHL when it comes to shot suppression in 5V5 situations.

While we're on a CAR post. CAR fans. Would you do a MEGA trade with Saad, Lehner, and Crow? I just see how stacked CAR is both currently AND for their future. The future is stacked in 4 different ways too! 1.) Their long term contracts are AMAZING Aho, Turbo, Slavin, Pesce...they're all great contracts. 2.) CAR has young HIGH contributing talent like Svech, Necas 3.) CAR also has a pretty stacked farm system with young NHL studs like Bean, Bokk, Suzuki all developing 4.) CAR has multiple 1st AND 2nd round picks this year.

Why not go for it this year? If not this year...when do you go for it?