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jnowariak

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Aug. 26, 2020
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Minnesota Wild
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Forum: Armchair-GM11 hours ago
Thread: What would Fiala cost
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>csick</b></div><div>Those are all the teams I see in the running tbh plus maybe the Islanders. But Fiala doesn’t seem like a Lou player.

I also don’t see NJ moving 2nd overall, Holtz or Mercer. So that leaves the 2023 1st and guys like Zacha and Smith. Is that enough I don’t think so.

I think Anaheim is the best spot and most likely cuz they have a lot of prospects Colangelo, Perrreault, Tracey, Comtois and their 2022 1st is lower than the other teams.

I’d have them:

1) Anaheim
2) Ottawa
3) NJ
4) Isles
5) LA

Right now</div></div>

Good analysis, I think you’re pretty darn close. But, as always, I have something to add. NJD is the wild card with 2 OA, and I don’t mean that it’s on the table but I wonder if it puts Mercer in play. Slaf or Cooley probably have a higher ceiling than Mercer but that’s as much an embarrassment of riches as ANA. It just depends what they’re willing to put up.

Looking at OTT (and not trying to rag), the Boucher pick last year really puts them on the back foot for this deal. I know you’re high on Pinto but is he worth offering for Fiala? As I’ve said for a while, I think it’s gonna come down to the prospect more than the pick.

Gonna be fun for me as a Wild fan.
Forum: Armchair-GM12 hours ago
Thread: I dont hate it
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Cowling</b></div><div>You can't argue based of hypothetical futures that they will probably get 5 mill and not Brown. They're xGF% are higher because they are on better teams, Brown often starts in the defensive zone and gets tough matchups while being on a bottom 10 team all year.</div></div>

No, lehkonen had a positive rate in MTL, Coleman one in NJD, and Copp (who I don’t see as a great comp here) in WPG. xGF% accounts for how well you’re able to “tilt” the ice, good defensive players that start in their zone either get the puck or keep the other team to bad chances. That’s measured.

And as for future deals, that is absolutely factored in. Coleman, Goodrow, Hagel, and Lehkonen got firsts because they were team controlled for 2 or more seasons when the trade was made. And let’s say Copp is a comparable, he didn’t receive a first as a UFA.
Forum: Armchair-GM12 hours ago
Thread: I dont hate it
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xspyrit</b></div><div>You mean Connor Brown is NOT in that category? lol this is based on what exactly?

He has outproduced every single one of them (except Copp recently), has been a Top-2 PK most used Forward in the whole league during the last 3 seasons, was 2nd in TkA last season. He also received Selke votes (17th)

87% of his production (0.62 PPG) has been on ES/PK in Ottawa, this is extremely VALUABLE.


This is just the case of a casual hockey fan who doesn't know much about a player from another team. I have seen that almost every day for a long time now. This is a routine conversation for me.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Cowling</b></div><div>Why not?</div></div>

Brown is 28 and going to UFA, the other guys were 24 with team control when they moved for 1sts. Not to mention their on ice impacts, as measured by xGF%, we’re firmly in the above 50 where Brown is not.

All of those guys will get term and about 5 mil on their UFA deal. Would you give 5 mil over 6 years to Brown next year? If so, we disagree firmly on what he brings.
Forum: Armchair-GM12 hours ago
Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 2:53 p.m.
Thread: Keeping Kevin
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TanSor</b></div><div>I don't envy Guerin. Lots of problems to fix on this roster. I agree on Addison, if you move Dumba that blue line is in rough shape but it'll be tough to acquire a top 4 D that's cheap. Maybe you call up the Kings, they're swimming in RD.

Ultimately I just think the writing is on the wall for Fiala. Trading him for futures allows you to re-sign everybody. Center depth is still terrible though, even if Rossi makes the roster, I'd like to see that addressed this offseason but it won't be easy with our cap.</div></div>

I’m doing up a 23 roster ATM and have 12 mil to sign 2 goalies and Boldy/Dumba. Fiala is not feasible under any circumstances and it looks like they’ll be parting ways with Jost as well. The goal should be to be in the best position on 2025 and that means a max term deal for Boldy. The wild card in all of this is Middleton.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon. at 1:25 p.m.
Thread: This is kind of a big deal
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TCMonkey</b></div><div>I'm not saying Fiala for our 1st + JBD would be unfair, I'm just saying it's not a move Ottawa should be making.

I know a lot of SENS fans are out of patience and want to do whatever it takes to push for the playoffs in 22-23. I personally feel it would be a mistake to trade what will be Cutter Gauthier or Matthew Savoie (let alone adding a solid prospect) for Fiala. Is he good? Absolutely. Is he good enough to make the SENS a playoff team next year? MAYBE, but I doubt it because it's not like TBL, FLA and TOR are suddenly going to crash and burn. And Fiala will command a hefty enough salary that we'll be feeling a pinch in two or three years which is when we'd truly be ready to contend. OTT needs a 2 to 3 year deal with a legit top 6 winger who plays a 200 foot game. By year 3 of that deal guys like Greig, Ostapchuk, Formenton, Mathieu, Cutter or Savoie, Boucher, Lodin... they could all be fighting for middle six/2nd line spots ... and guys like Tkachuk, Norris, Stützle and Batherson will be the veterans.</div></div>

That’s a reasonable take. I think the fact you present a list of 8 guys with a range of ceilings, meaning the answer isn’t certain, is why a Fiala deal makes sense to me. But I get why you might not want to do it.
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