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jnowariak
Member Since
Aug. 26, 2020
Favourite Team
Minnesota Wild
Forum Posts
3349
Posts per Day
5.3
POSTS
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ARMCHAIR-GM TEAMS
Forum:
Armchair-GM
11 hours ago
Thread:
What would Fiala cost
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TanSor</b></div><div>I'd kill for Mercer. He was my draft crush two years ago. I'd be really surprised if the Devils traded him but he'd be my ideal target.</div></div>
From an upside bet, I think it makes sense. But agreed. He’s the guy I wait for NJD to put on the table.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
11 hours ago
Thread:
What would Fiala cost
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>csick</b></div><div>Some guy on Sens radio this morning suggested Pinto and maybe a 2nd for Fiala and all Sens fans went nuts.
I think 7th overall and Jarventie is probably fair value. But will the Sens offer the 7th? That’s what I’m wondering</div></div>
I’m kinda wondering that for all involved. And just because Sens fans listening to radio went nuts doesn’t really tell me one thing or the other, but you know that better than anybody.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
11 hours ago
Thread:
What would Fiala cost
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>wabit</b></div><div>I think this list just shows how weak GM's think the top of this draft is. Top-10 picks aren't something that is even considered to be on the table other draft years.</div></div>
I think it speaks more to the GMs in question wanting to win now than anything. Gotta think Dorian and Fitz are getting a bit warm in their seats ATM.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
11 hours ago
Thread:
What would Fiala cost
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>csick</b></div><div>Those are all the teams I see in the running tbh plus maybe the Islanders. But Fiala doesn’t seem like a Lou player.
I also don’t see NJ moving 2nd overall, Holtz or Mercer. So that leaves the 2023 1st and guys like Zacha and Smith. Is that enough I don’t think so.
I think Anaheim is the best spot and most likely cuz they have a lot of prospects Colangelo, Perrreault, Tracey, Comtois and their 2022 1st is lower than the other teams.
I’d have them:
1) Anaheim
2) Ottawa
3) NJ
4) Isles
5) LA
Right now</div></div>
Good analysis, I think you’re pretty darn close. But, as always, I have something to add. NJD is the wild card with 2 OA, and I don’t mean that it’s on the table but I wonder if it puts Mercer in play. Slaf or Cooley probably have a higher ceiling than Mercer but that’s as much an embarrassment of riches as ANA. It just depends what they’re willing to put up.
Looking at OTT (and not trying to rag), the Boucher pick last year really puts them on the back foot for this deal. I know you’re high on Pinto but is he worth offering for Fiala? As I’ve said for a while, I think it’s gonna come down to the prospect more than the pick.
Gonna be fun for me as a Wild fan.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
11 hours ago
Thread:
What would Fiala cost
If the Ducks are in the running that puts ANA, OTT, and NJD in the running. Each of those teams has a high 2022 1st, if one of them puts that on the table then I think that sets the pick. If not, the package is a 1st (22/23, probably doesn’t matter) and a decent prospect. I’ve been interested in Perrault and Groulx.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
12 hours ago
Thread:
I dont hate it
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Cowling</b></div><div>You can't argue based of hypothetical futures that they will probably get 5 mill and not Brown. They're xGF% are higher because they are on better teams, Brown often starts in the defensive zone and gets tough matchups while being on a bottom 10 team all year.</div></div>
No, lehkonen had a positive rate in MTL, Coleman one in NJD, and Copp (who I don’t see as a great comp here) in WPG. xGF% accounts for how well you’re able to “tilt” the ice, good defensive players that start in their zone either get the puck or keep the other team to bad chances. That’s measured.
And as for future deals, that is absolutely factored in. Coleman, Goodrow, Hagel, and Lehkonen got firsts because they were team controlled for 2 or more seasons when the trade was made. And let’s say Copp is a comparable, he didn’t receive a first as a UFA.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
12 hours ago
Thread:
I dont hate it
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xspyrit</b></div><div>You mean Connor Brown is NOT in that category? lol this is based on what exactly?
He has outproduced every single one of them (except Copp recently), has been a Top-2 PK most used Forward in the whole league during the last 3 seasons, was 2nd in TkA last season. He also received Selke votes (17th)
87% of his production (0.62 PPG) has been on ES/PK in Ottawa, this is extremely VALUABLE.
This is just the case of a casual hockey fan who doesn't know much about a player from another team. I have seen that almost every day for a long time now. This is a routine conversation for me.</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Cowling</b></div><div>Why not?</div></div>
Brown is 28 and going to UFA, the other guys were 24 with team control when they moved for 1sts. Not to mention their on ice impacts, as measured by xGF%, we’re firmly in the above 50 where Brown is not.
All of those guys will get term and about 5 mil on their UFA deal. Would you give 5 mil over 6 years to Brown next year? If so, we disagree firmly on what he brings.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
12 hours ago
Thread:
I dont hate it
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xspyrit</b></div><div>Guys like Coleman, Lehkonen, Copp, etc are not "<em>sweeteners</em>"</div></div>
He is not in that category. What are we doing here?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
12 hours ago
Thread:
I dont hate it
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Cowling</b></div><div>Brown hasn't played in a full season with Ottawa, he was on pace for 50+ last 2 years while being very good defensively.</div></div>
I’m sure he’s a good player, he puts up solid middle 6 numbers. But I would be hard pressed to find a team that values his talents at a 1st is all I’m trying to say.
I’m also not trying to litigate his value, rather check some hyperbole.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
12 hours ago
Thread:
Fiala to NJD
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>wabit</b></div><div>So the window opens in 2025. Kaprizov is a rental at that point. If he walks or is traded, because he's not going to re-sign then the window is closed before it even opens. Not to mention Spurgeon (already falling off) is 3 years older. Brodin is now in his 30s. A player drafted this year has a better chance of making the NHL roster compared to one draft in 2023.
The Kaprizov clock is real. They need to compete while he's here, or trade him now, At the very latest trade him before his NMC kick in.</div></div>
I was in camp trade his rights last summer so I think I’m being consistent if nothing else. You can’t win with 1 or 2 stars. You need 4-5. We might have that in 2025. We don’t know.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
12 hours ago
Thread:
I dont hate it
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PLDGEY</b></div><div>CBrown 50% is worth 1st+
So it would be 7OA + CBrown 50% for
Fiala + MIN 1st?</div></div>
OK, but is he tho? Dude is 28, UFA at the end of the year and never had a 50 pt season.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
13 hours ago
Thread:
What Id do best case
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>csick</b></div><div>Formenton scored 18 goals at 22 years old. He’s due for an improvement</div></div>
I’m skeptical of using “due” as a descriptor for prospects but he’s not a nobody and is absolutely a good faith initial offer.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
13 hours ago
Thread:
What Id do best case
I do hope the use of the 23 1st is a trend we start seeing, bet on yourself. IDK if Formenton gets it done but it absolutely is a good place to start.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
13 hours ago
Thread:
Fiala to NJD
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>wabit</b></div><div>Using a future 1st ties GMs hands. One less asset to trade if they want to go all in. If things go sideways for the season then it could be a high pick or kicked down the road another season. They learned from EK and Duschene trades about losing future top-5 picks? '23 looks like a better draft class.
A future 1st is less appealing to MN's GM when there is the Kaprizov ticking clock.</div></div>
I see that, but if that turns out to be the case then that GM is likely no longer paying the price. As for BG, the Kaprizov clock *should* be a fiction. Regardless of whether he stays past 5 years, this window opens in 25.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
14 hours ago
Thread:
Fiala to NJD
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>justaBoss</b></div><div>I'd rather offer sheet Fiala than give the 2nd overall for him.</div></div>
IDK why people aren’t using the 23 1st for these Fiala deals. They just make more sense.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
14 hours ago
Thread:
Fiala to NJD
And body know what Middleton is projecting on a 3/4 year term at evolving hockey?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 2:53 p.m.
Thread:
Keeping Kevin
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TanSor</b></div><div>I don't envy Guerin. Lots of problems to fix on this roster. I agree on Addison, if you move Dumba that blue line is in rough shape but it'll be tough to acquire a top 4 D that's cheap. Maybe you call up the Kings, they're swimming in RD.
Ultimately I just think the writing is on the wall for Fiala. Trading him for futures allows you to re-sign everybody. Center depth is still terrible though, even if Rossi makes the roster, I'd like to see that addressed this offseason but it won't be easy with our cap.</div></div>
I’m doing up a 23 roster ATM and have 12 mil to sign 2 goalies and Boldy/Dumba. Fiala is not feasible under any circumstances and it looks like they’ll be parting ways with Jost as well. The goal should be to be in the best position on 2025 and that means a max term deal for Boldy. The wild card in all of this is Middleton.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 2:31 p.m.
Thread:
Keeping Kevin
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TanSor</b></div><div>I think we're better off just moving Dumba anyways. Zucc is better at his position than Dumba is at his, he has great chemistry with literally our best player in franchise history, and you'd have to get him to waive his NMC. They have the same cap hits, so the relief is the same either way.</div></div>
And why would you do that for 1 year of cap flexibility? I will not accept Addison as a top 4 ready guy ATM, regardless of what we think he can do.
But what happens the year after when you’ve signed Fiala long term and now you have no money to sign Boldy? He is not looking at a low cost bridge, regardless what anybody says about team control.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 2:07 p.m.
Thread:
Keeping Kevin
The one thing this doesn’t address, or any of the folks who have previously suggested it, is why would you spoil the club house and piss off Kaprizov for 2 years of cap relief? It’s not the worst idea on paper but when people get involved? 😬
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mon. at 5:07 p.m.
Thread:
Fiala to LA
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>csick</b></div><div>Imo they’ll sign Forsberg and move assets for Chychrun. Much better scenario for them</div></div>
Agreed. Fiala makes sense for them, but I doubt they’d want to move the same assets an OTT or possibly NJD would. Regardless, they’re adding a scoring wing.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mon. at 4:29 p.m.
Thread:
Fiala Packages
You know, 2023 1sts can be moved too and I think that’s not the worst thought.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mon. at 4:27 p.m.
Thread:
Fiala to LA
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>csick</b></div><div>I can’t see LA saying yes</div></div>
I think they’ll be all in on Forsberg. But Fiala fits and a 1st and Grans seems like a no brained, Turcs also had another concussion.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mon. at 4:26 p.m.
Thread:
Fiala to LA
Just came out that Turcs had another concussion… I’d say Fiala alone is close here.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mon. at 1:25 p.m.
Thread:
This is kind of a big deal
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TCMonkey</b></div><div>I'm not saying Fiala for our 1st + JBD would be unfair, I'm just saying it's not a move Ottawa should be making.
I know a lot of SENS fans are out of patience and want to do whatever it takes to push for the playoffs in 22-23. I personally feel it would be a mistake to trade what will be Cutter Gauthier or Matthew Savoie (let alone adding a solid prospect) for Fiala. Is he good? Absolutely. Is he good enough to make the SENS a playoff team next year? MAYBE, but I doubt it because it's not like TBL, FLA and TOR are suddenly going to crash and burn. And Fiala will command a hefty enough salary that we'll be feeling a pinch in two or three years which is when we'd truly be ready to contend. OTT needs a 2 to 3 year deal with a legit top 6 winger who plays a 200 foot game. By year 3 of that deal guys like Greig, Ostapchuk, Formenton, Mathieu, Cutter or Savoie, Boucher, Lodin... they could all be fighting for middle six/2nd line spots ... and guys like Tkachuk, Norris, Stützle and Batherson will be the veterans.</div></div>
That’s a reasonable take. I think the fact you present a list of 8 guys with a range of ceilings, meaning the answer isn’t certain, is why a Fiala deal makes sense to me. But I get why you might not want to do it.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mon. at 12:38 p.m.
Thread:
If a trade for Kevin Fiala turns out like the trade for Sam Reinhart
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sensonfire</b></div><div>The cap space needed to sign Fiala vs the cap space needed for whoever is picked at 2nd overall.
It's a big difference.</div></div>
This is a big reason I think the 1st round pick will be a 2023. Pick 7 is more reasonable to give up than pick 2 but they are both stretches and it’ll come down to the prospect rather than the pick IMO.
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