justaBoss

Not a burger anymore
Member Since
Oct 19, 2017
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Dallas Stars
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Tampa Bay Lightning
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Feb 11, 1998
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Helsinki, Finland
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formerly burgerboss
Forum: Armchair-GM7 hours ago
Thread: NHL Future Value Roster 1st Team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Caniac2000</b></div><div>Did you miss the fact Svechnikov was almost a point per game at the age of 19? Laine had 47 even-strength points this year, Svechnikov had 41 with far worse linemates (Laine played with Copp, and Kyle Connor, it's a far cry from Jordan Staal and Warren Foegele). On top of that, he's far better all around, his passing and his shot are just mad. This was also just his 2nd year in the NHL... I don't understand how you can see more potential in Laine than Svech.... are you looking at this through rose-tinted glasses? I know you're Finnish, does that have anything to do with it? Otherwise, I don't know how you can say Laine has a higher Ceiling than Svechnikov.</div></div>

Maybe I'm biased. But Laine performed points-wise pretty much just as well Svech does at 19.
Forum: Armchair-GM7 hours ago
Thread: NHL Future Value Roster 1st Team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Caniac2000</b></div><div>Andrei Svechnikov played the majority of the season with Jordan Staal and Warren f*cking Foegele. Combined they have 47 points.....

Laine made developments, sure. But it couldn't have gotten much worse, Hockeyviz still says he's a big liability defensively. Laine's tranisiton stats have to be modified because he doesn't hit the attempt threshold, so he doesn't move from defence to offence. He shoots the puck, and that's about it statistically speaking.</div></div>

Don't know about how hockeyviz rate players, but yeah I know Laine is not exactly known for his defensive game.

Imo Laine's biggest weakness has been throughout his whole career his inconsistency. There's been phases where he's one the best players in the league, and then there's have been phases where he would've struggled in f*cking ECHL.

This year statistically speaking Laine has become more of a playmaker for his team. Instead of shooting as much, he passes the puck more often. And he has done pretty well in that. Statistically this is his best season thus far.

I can fully understand how one would view Svechnikov as the better of the two. Frankly after watching his stats he is better all around player.

Still I do see more potential in Laine than Svechnikov, because he has shown that he's virtually unstoppable when his confidence hits the ceiling. October and November of 2018 was a good example of that.

And this was the point of this post. The future value of NHL players...
Forum: Armchair-GM7 hours ago
Forum: Armchair-GM11 hours ago
Thread: Speed up the rebuild with Krug and Lehner
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>This is such bad logic. Most guys hit FA at 27. You give then 7 years and ok, they are 34. Maybe you get 1 bad year out of it and can justify having very solid years out a guy.
But that is not the case here.
And Krug is not the only person I have said this on, and frankly a lot of people agree with the thought. Giving a 31 year old Dadonov a 7 year deal is not a wise choice either.
You have to be wise about what you are doing and honest about contract lengths vs returns. Dadonov isn't going to play well till he's 37. At 31, you might get 3 good years out of him.
But if he was 27, you could say, ok, there are probably 5-6 good years there and if you are lucky you get 7. So you take the 5-6 and it's the cost of the 1.
But when you are looking at him at 31, it's like, wow Maybe we get 3 good years out of him and then the other 4 are suspect as hell. Not a smart choice.
Furthermore, you can look at guys who benefit form being in a good spot and realize they aren't worth the money. Connor Sheary is a great example of that. What an epic waste of 3 million that contract was. He was carried. You can look at a lot of guys and say that. Situation matters.

So yes, you can make logical predictive choices. You just have to stop looking at it as, that player plays for my team...or I like him so I think he should get paid.
Teams are learning more and more that it's harder to deal with the cap. Especially as younger players are pushing for money earlier. That switch and the league getting younger has caused teams to really start working the cap fundamentally differently.
Which means no more signing guys till they are 36-37 and teams being much more calculative on worth vs expected return.</div></div>

No one would sign Dadonov that long contract. Obviously.
Forum: Armchair-GM17 hours ago
Thread: Speed up the rebuild with Krug and Lehner
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>He is not going to be a 50-60 point D-man till he's 36 years old.
And this is the point. This is a contract that pays him for past performance not future returns. Detroit doesn't pay for what he DID on Boston. They pay for what they can expect him to do for DET.
And I have to be honest with you, I don't see him getting 50-60 points on Detroit. He is in the Ozone with one of the best lines in hockey. So those numbers, frankly are inflated.
You want to over pay on a defenseman be my guest. But there is no way I hand him that contract.</div></div>

Honestly if all of the contracts follow your logic, the maximum term on every deal would be 3 years because of the possibility of a player not being that good in the future.

Sadly, that's not how anything works. The UFA player's market value depends on two things:
1) buyers needs - if a team needs a player such as Krug, it's likely the team would offer more than others.
2) players past performance - because no one can predict how well players will perform in future, the only factual basis for making an offer is the players past production.

Teams have the option of giving a lot of money short term for a player they might be after, or they could offer him a tad less with him more term. At 29, assuming a 7-year contract is still somewhat reasonable. Especially when the market for the players of his caliber is pretty scarce.
Forum: Armchair-GM20 hours ago
Thread: Speed up the rebuild with Krug and Lehner
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>There is no such thing as being a 1LD offensively. The whole point of being a 1LD is that they are able to be on the ice in any circumstance.
You can't name me 1 LD on a team that is useless in the defensive zone. Even the 1LD guys who are considered "defensive defense men" are able to at least help out in the O zone.
They aren't inept. The can play both halves of the rink. They are the kind of guys who are never hidden on the ice.
You don't HIDE a 1LD. That's the damn point of them!</div></div>

It depends how the team is built, really. I do agree with your point that Krug is almost never used in defensive situation and thus calling him a 1LD seems a stretch. But it doesn't mean that he couldn't be a 1LD on his respective team if the team works so good offensively than they benefit from using an offensive D as their first one rather than a defensive one. Teams such as TOR and NSH, and also BOS is built this way.

Why this works for BOS though is due to their forward's defensive abilities. TOR's and NSH's forwards and d-men are absolutely pathetic on this end and thus this way of playing ends up with loads of goals against. NSH has Josi as their D though, who is absolutely amazing in both ends.

But like I said before, Krug is not going to be acquired as a strengthening to the defense of a team. Rather, he's going to be a "4th forward" in a sense. Could this be useful for teams such as DET, no one knows yet.

His offensive value is that of a 50-60 point d-man, which is in the ballpark of that $7M deal. His value is still on that level.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon at 12:30 pm
Thread: Speed up the rebuild with Krug and Lehner
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>You don't think teams are learning from those mistakes? Are you kidding me. There are many teams not making them anymore. Who let guys walk.
When you can sit here and say "I know it's wrong.....garbage garbage garbage"....then the GM knows it's wrong too and is trying to avoid it.





You don't need a time machine to know signing Krug til l36 is a dumb move.
Nor do you need one to know he's not a 1LD, and shouldn't be paid like one.
You are enamored by a name. Some non logical attachment to it.
He's not a 7 mil a year player, he does not deserve a 7 year deal at 29 years old.
Both are mistakes.
Furthermore this idea of "best LD" on the UFA market is really relative. He's clearly not the best guy in his own zone. Which is why boston hides him.
Yes he's an offensive defense man....but he has limited 2 way appeal and those numbers are more than likely to flake out. As has done for a lot of players who only had offense going for them.

You can believe whatever you want. You would be the GM signing him to a 7 year deal and then regretting it.
Other teams want to win.

The whole idea of "what is due" Boston can pay him for his past. Other teams shouldn't be making that mistake.
You are due nothing but what you can bring to the ice for your new team. And he isn't brining 7x7 value to a new team.</div></div>

One knows that giving him a big long-term is the most practical, and probably the way to get him to sign with your team. Especially when the team is the weakest in the entire league.

Offensively he is a 1LD. Pretty close to Klingberg. Would go to first pair in 20 teams in the league, including BOS who's currently the league leader.

Name me one UFA with similar kind of stats that didn't get a deal with the cap percentage (8,6%) equal to him getting a $7M deal. There's a lot of weaker players getting near that amount. It's very rare that a D of his level would end up as UFA in the first place.

It's obvious he's not the best guy on his own zone, he's an offensive defenseman. He's paid for more due to his offensive abilities. not defensive necessarily.

And it's obvious that if he becomes UFA he's certainly getting a $7M+ deal, no matter what term is it. You'll see.