kingsfaninSD

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Forum: Armchair-GMTue at 4:33 pm
Forum: Armchair-GMThu at 7:15 pm
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Forum: Armchair-GMJun 19 at 8:18
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>You were doing just fine up to this point. Cap space will be tight in the league because nobody foresaw the cap remaining flat, cap space at a premium, Oilers fans wanting to trade Russell's cap hit to rebalance the roster, etc. I agree with this mostly, the only thing I would point out is that with many teams facing a <em>serious</em> cash shortfall, there will be more teams than ever before that will set internal budgets <em>below</em> the cap limit. As such, a contract like Russell's is actually attractive to those teams as he is only owed $1.5M in cash. Industry insiders are already talking about good players getting traded in the near future for no reason other than their contract terms dictate huge payouts this summer and the organizations don't have the cash.


This is where you get off the rails. Your insinuations that Russell is old and slow couldn't be more wrong. Kris is one of the quickest skaters on the league, he's small but he has great wheels. How do you think he gets in front of so many shots?

Here's what sportsforecaster.com has to say:

<em>Is a tremendous shot-blocking defenseman, which is his best attribute. Plays with confidence with the puck. Also owns enough offensive acumen to play on the power play and moves the puck with aplomb. <strong>Has great wheels.</strong></em>

He isn't used on the PP in Edmonton so I can't testify to that claim, but the fact remains that Russell is an above average skater in the NHL.



I'm not even sure Holland will try to move him, he's great defensively and a big part of the 2nd best PK unit in the league.

Anyways, a lot of teams will be facing financial difficulties and it'll be interesting to see how it plays out. In regards to Russell though, I think the contract advantage (low salary) and disadvantage (relatively high cap hit) probably cancel each other out. Holland certainly isn't going to spend assets moving Russell along when he only has 1 year left and plays cheap.</div></div>

This is where you go off the rails. So many teams are scrambling trying to figure out how they are going to sign their players and still have enough room to get better (Tampa, Toronto) that teams with cap space can take calls from Holland and say hold on, let me get back to you. Montreal and Ottawa have what these teams are looking for...cap space and draft picks. The amount owed might not be a huge factor if games start playing next season in front of fans. The $4 million per year is the biggest stumbling block.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun 18 at 7:36
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>Here's some research on Russell I posted elsewhere:
<em>
"Russell is pretty bad at playing NHL-level defense for someone who's touted as being a defensive-minded player."</em>

You present your opinion as fact, on this subject and many others. But does your opinion hold up in the light of day? Let's take a look.

There are 31 teams in the league and each team puts 6 defensemen on the ice every game, meaning that there are 186 regular defense jobs available in the NHL. To get a picture of the 186 most used defensemen at 5v5, you simply set the filter at 550 minutes minimum. So everything we look at here is based on the top 186 "regular" defensemen by 5v5 TOI.

Because the accusation is that Russell can't defend, I'll highlight some of his defensive metrics as per naturalstattrick.com.

CA/60: 56.04 (102nd of 186)
FA/60: 39.03 (32nd)
SA/60: 27.44 (15th)
GA/60: 1.62 (3rd)
HDCA/60: 9.97 (58th)
Def Zone Starts/60: 8.66 (63rd)

What can we deduce from these numbers? His corsi against numbers are about median for top-6 defensemen, giving the lie to your statement that "if you're blocking a lot of shots, it means you're giving up a lot of shots." He does in fact defend a lot, but that's due to coaching decisions to have him out for defensive zone faceoffs more than any Oilers player not named Adam Larsson.

Why do you think a smart coach like Dave Tippett would do that? Because he knows that Russell is actually really good at defending and he trusts him to do that job. I mean, just look at the results: 32nd in the league with unblocked shot attempts against and 15th in the league with shots against. That tells me he was contesting every shot, so that even when he was unable to block the shot his relentless defensive efforts caused the shot to miss the net more often than league average.

And then we come to the actual goals against number, which is nothing short of spectacular. Some of that is on the goalies and some on luck, but his ability to get in front of shots and force forwards to miss the net indicates that a good part of this is on Russell himself.

As much as casual fans on this site love to hate him - even Oilers fans - he is still very much an NHL player whose skills are valued by the men that are paid to coach the greatest game on earth.

And we haven't even mentioned Kris Russell's value on the penalty kill.

<a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/333746&amp;post_id=1477860">https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/333746&amp;post_id=1477860</a></div></div>

I'm not against Russell the player, I have issues justifying his $4 million dollar against the cap. All the stats point to what you are stating, his contract is otherwise, or else why would you want to trade him if he is so defensively? Your answer is always that they need to make room for younger players. So you need to move his contract to let younger players get some ice time and also to remove his cap hit to get better players for wingers. The way next year is looking, the cap will either stay the same or go down. This hurts many teams that didn't plan for this. If this is the case, teams with cap space will have the upper hand in taking on a contract like Russell's...good defensively but getting slower. Other teams are also looking at getting younger players in the lineup because they have a lower cap hit and are faster than some of their counterparts. The game is trending towards speed and agility. So teams you want to trade Russell to will look to see just how bad Edmonton wants to rid them of his contract and get as many assets as they can.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun 13 at 11:18
Forum: Armchair-GMJun 12 at 5:42
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeterChiarelli</b></div><div>I'm going to hold you to a more in-depth answer. Assume the following:

1. Detroit will not be competitive next season
2. Quality UFA's are not expected to sign in Detroit next season due to them being a bottom-feeding team (ie, TOI &gt; 19min, point-producing, etc.)
3. The Red Wings RFA's are re-signed
4. Free agents aged 36 and older retire
5. Trading key assets is not in the cards for the Red Wings

A quick glance at the Red Wings contracts for next year suggests that Bowey, Hronek, and Nemeth are the only full-time NHL defenders Detroit currently has on the books for next year. Biega is a 7th defender by every means and should be used as such. He probably spends the season rotating in and out with Lindstrom, but I doubt either will be effective in their role and neither will be on the team next season. Cholowski probably makes the team out of camp and the amount of games he actually gets in will likely vary on a multitude of factors. Maybe this season is his first full NHL season. Thus, I imagine the NHL depth chart looks something like this:

Nemeth - Hronek
[] - Bowey
Cholowski - Lindstrom
Biega

Now consider that your only real UFA options are as follows:
- Really overpay Edmundson or Gustafsson in terms of AAV and term
- Overpay Merill, Del Zotto, or Hutton to play more minutes a night than they've ever had
- Sekera?

Given that none of these fit either Yzerman's style of management nor does paying high picks and prospects fit Detroit's timeline, the following conclusion is evident: <strong>Detroit's best option for filling their gap on the blueline is via trading for a short-term solution</strong>.

There's a chance a Hjarlmarsson or Marc Staal could shake loose, but they have the same conditions as Russell does. It's likely they cost more in terms of future assets than Edmonton's shot-blocking machine does: Arizona and the Rangers are in much more dire cap situations than Edmonton is. Ian Cole might not be a terrible option if the Avalanche are looking to move on from his salary, but like Zadorov, might come at a cost the Red Wings shouldn't be interested in paying.

I recently did an analysis on Russell over the past three years relative to the top-201 defenders in the NHL (Post #19, <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/333746&amp;post_id=1478874">https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/333746&amp;post_id=1478874</a>) which pegged him as the #129th best defender in the NHL. He's in the ballpark of a quality #5 defender, and certainly qualifies as a poor man's #4. For the cost of a bottom-six center that won't fetch much at the deadline, this isn't a terrible trade for Detroit. I'm sure Edmonton wouldn't mind adding a late pick or a B-prospect if necessary.</div></div>

If Edmonton wants to move Russell and his contract, they are going to have to give additional assets or picks. He is a slow defenseman who is better off as a 6/7 D. His salary of $4 million per year is the killer. Yes I know his actual salary is lower but with the cap staying the same or lower, cap space is at a premium. Teams with cap space and picks are going to have the advantage. Some of the cap strapped teams who want to keep as much of their team intact or who want to add better players will have to make deals (Tampa, Toronto, St. Louis, NYI, Arizona, Vancouver, Chicago).