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pavelski_tip_in

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San Jose Sharks
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Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 10 at 11:07 p.m.
Thread: Sharks Overhaul Their Defensive Corps
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AStovetop</b></div><div>I feel like Carrier is going to have a lot of people interested, not sure he'd have a ton of interest in SJ. I could see Carolina picking him up ifPesce doesn't re-sign.</div></div>
You're right about interest from other teams, so we'd have to promise more money (which we can) and an expanded role. It's unclear if he would prioritize that over a more competitive team. But, if we have to outbid other teams, we really don't want to pay above market rate for a middle tier player.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AStovetop</b></div><div>Chatfield would be a nice pick up. I'd also think Roy, Pesce, maybe Dumba would be some guys Grier will be looking at if they price themselves out from other teams. I'd also be ok with having Ferraro or Vlasic play full time on the Right side to allow Thrun &amp; Shakir develop on their strong side.</div></div>
I'm glad you agree on Chatfield. I'm inclined to believe his great results in safer minutes could project to an expanded role.

I feel the same argument you made against Carrier can be used for Roy. He will demand even more interest. That's not too say we shouldn't sign him, but he's also a bit older. All three UFAs I targeted are 27 currently, and their career trajectory might line up better with our rebuild.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AStovetop</b></div><div>In terms of forwards I think Gushchin more than deserves an NHL spot to start like Bordeleau and Eklund had this season. Graf has been fantastic as well. If they're going to have vets take young guys spots than they need to be better players than Mikheyev or Trenin. That second line would destroy Celebrini's development.</div></div>
Graf should play the majority of his minutes in the AHL next season. Unless his physicality and skating improve significantly over the summer, he's not likely to start on the opening NHL roster. That's not to say he won't play at all for the Sharks. Injuries and slumps will open up opportunities for Gushchin, Bordeleau, and Graf, but we shouldn't just hand them the spot.

I don't know why you're so down on Mikheyev. He has had great underlying numbers in Vancouver and Toronto. Also has decent speed and size. He would instantly be one of our top 4 forwards.

Trenin is maybe a bit superfluous since he is more of a role player and you don't need to sign those so early in rebuild. But, I believe he would improve our putrid PK. His size would also fit with Grier's philosophy, and again, he is on the younger side.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 19 at 11:29 a.m.
Thread: Penguins Retool but Avoid Mortgaging the Future
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Marked_Difference</b></div><div>Hard pass on Keller but I could see a way forward for Schmaltz. Wouldn't be as high as a price either

Schmaltz and 2025 2nd (TOR) for Graves (ret ~2MM) and [2024 1st (PIT) -Guarantee SJC gets unprotected 20251st.]</div></div>
I think you've done a good job at balancing out the value with the 2nd round pick and lopping off one of the 1sts.

At the end of the day, if I'm a GM trading a top 10 pick, I would want a nailed-on top line player. Schmaltz isn't even projected to hit 60 points this season (which may be a function of the team he plays for). Ottawa got a 40 goal scorer for #7 overall in the DeBrincat trade. Turns out he wasn't as good of a player as they had hoped, but they paid up for his goal scoring potential.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 3 at 8:31 p.m.
Thread: Sharks 2024-25 Missing Pieces
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Letsgosharks</b></div><div>I think with some good wingers you could have hertl as a 1C, the sharks just obviously don’t really have that either.

I’ve always been high on eklund but he hasn’t really taken the next step yet. Which ig makes sense without a puck moving dman another winger to play with and more</div></div>
Eklund has been surprisingly competent defensively and has been creating lots of opportunities for his linemates with his behind-the-net passing (most of which haven't been converted). He has also shown some flashes on the powerplay with his passing and shooting.

Yet, he still hasn't been able to drive offense at 5v5 even when playing with Hertl. He needs to contribute more to solidify himself in the top 6. Like you said, with so many pieces missing around him, it's hard to know how much is his fault.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 4, 2023 at 1:27 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 7, 2023 at 11:16 a.m.
Thread: Hertl Trade
This is a bad trade for the Sharks because Holloway is not as strong a prospect as his draft position suggests. Despite his 1st round pedigree, he's scored 9 points in 62 NHL games so far. That's not to say he has no NHL future, but I imagine the Sharks would rather trade for a prospect with more upside. As for Merkulov, he seems to be trending up, but he's undersized and is under a point per game in the AHL. I honestly don't think he moves the needle much at all.

The Sharks won't accept taking on Campbell without at least a 1st in return. Others have suggested the price of offloading Campbell might be a 1st plus a good prospect. Even if this package were dangled, I don't know if Grier accepts it because he's looking for cap flexibility in 25-26 (see the Karlsson trade).

I can see why you need to include Grzelcyk to balance salaries, and he's a real NHL player, but again doesn't really move the needle.

In terms of reasons why the Sharks might like this package, the 24 Edmonton 1st might be juicy if Ullmark doesn't turn the team around. Geekie is a good NHL player on an affordable contract, so he boosts the trade package value.

Honestly, this package is lacking a 2nd 1st from a Sharks perspective because currently it's more like Morgan Geekie and Holloway for Tomas Hertl, which is an underpay. Grzelcyk helps with cap balance, but doens't entice the Sharks. Campbell and a 1st for Kahkonen is not enough. Sharks have little interest in Merkulov.

If Hertl demands a trade to Boston, then we lose leverage and can't demand the 2nd 1st. A straight swap of Geekie, Grzelcyk, and a high pick or prospect, without Campbell might do it.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 26, 2023 at 11:33 a.m.
Thread: Three Way Trade
It's an interesting idea from a Sharks perspective with about fair value. Sharks get off the Hertl contract and gain a 1st with no retention. Lysell is Boston's top AHL prospect, but I don't think he's on a slam dunk development path (compare him to say Tristen Robins for example and their numbers are similar). You may need a 2nd team to retain on Kahkonen for a 4th or something.

There is a problem with all the contracts coming back to the Sharks since we don't have enough spots. We already took on so many journeyman players in the Karlsson trade that we would probably need to waive some legitimate NHL player for no value. However, if Tomas Hertl went to Mike Grier and demanded a trade to Boston (necessary since he has a NMC), this would definitely be an acceptable solution.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 12, 2023 at 11:01 a.m.
Thread: TDL outlook part 2
One interesting wrinkle that might reduce our trade returns: we'll probably need to ask a 3rd team to facilitate a lot of these trades because contenders don't have even $2-3M in cap space to take on players like Hoffman, Duclair, or Labanc.

All that likely means is the team facilitating will receive a 4th or 5th, so in your trade projections we'd only receive one pick for each of those players (hopefully still get 2nds and 3rds but return could be worse). For example, if a team retains 50% on Hoffman, they'd have a $2.5M real salary money obligation. If you prorate for the deadline it turns out to be about $625K.

If the player has minimal value and needs retention, then we'll get almost nothing. Take the Nick Bonino trade. We gave up a 5th in that trade for a worse 5th and a 7th because the Canadiens were the ones retaining 50%. Of course that was more of a GMMG favor to Bonino, but Hoffman or Labanc could be involved in similar neutral value trades because our retention slots are near full.