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poeticentropy

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Oct. 5, 2020
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Forum: Armchair-GM24 minutes ago
Forum: Armchair-GM1 hour ago
Thread: Meier price for each team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>Is Meier willing to sign a long-term deal with San Jose? There's a real possibility that he isn't. Therefore they are motivated to trade him, as there only option then would be to qualify him ($10M x 1) and sell him as a pending UFA next deadline. He'll be worth less as a pending UFA.

So they're going to get the best return for him right now and they know it. It's not their only option, but it's the best one. So you can't pretend they don't have any motivation to make a deal.</div></div>

There's nothing out there indicating that he is not interested in signing long term in SJ, and SJ can afford it (assumed ~$9mx8).
People speculated Hertl was good as gone last deadline and SJ paid the man.
I agree with you that SJ would get the best return for Meier now and they would be motivated if they don't think they can get Meier to agree long term.
Grier indicated he's open for business on everyone but Hertl (because of recently signing), but also has made a lot of quotes about wanting to keep Meier. We really all have no idea.
I think SJ fans just want to remind people of the likely resign-in-SJ option when people are throwing out comps like Fiala where MN would have had to move a lot of salary to resign Fiala so Guerin's hand was forced.
Forum: Armchair-GM2 hours ago
Thread: Meier Trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Tintin</b></div><div>Okay, but what happens if Meier doesn't wanna extend for a retool / rebuild in San Jose?
What happens if Meier is only interested in doing a sign-and-trade with just the one team?
Meier's 10m QO makes his situation eerily similar to that of a pending UFA, in fact for all intents and purposes he is one, because no team trading for him would be interested in signing him to his qualifying offer.

That's not to say he is a rental, he is unlikely to be one, but not being a rental =/= not being a pending UFA.
You actually say it yourself here:

How is this what you said any different for Mark Stone, or any other pending UFA you are given the option to talk an extension with before the trade goes down?

The foundational principles of supply and demand, prior comparables, market competitiveness and (most importantly in the context of the NHL) game theory doesn't just vanish because Timo Meier is the current flavour of the TDL.

It's not like I don't get from a Sharks fan's perspective.
Trading star wingers away sucks, you're almost never getting the same returns as you think you'd get and especially so when compared to RHDs and Cs.
I felt very defensive about the return Hall 'should've' gotten vs the one the Devils ended up with for the longest time, but ultimately it is the reflection of the realities of the NHL.</div></div>

Yes, If Meier makes it clear he doesn't want to sign in SJ and there's not a lot of interest from other teams then his trade value goes down
Yes, If Meier is only interested in a sign-and-trade with just one team his trade value goes down
I said how I think the Mark Stone situation was different. OTT didn't want to pay him what he wanted. SJ wants Meier and will pay him. Huge difference there.

But it's ridiculous to cite these hypotheticals as definitively decreasing Meier's trade value. They're just possibilities, just like my dream of something like 1st+holtz+muk is possible if the competition for Meier is high. If we get evidence for these hypotheticals having some basis of truth then that changes things.

A rental implies SJ will trade him to a team that won't resign him, which I think is really unlikely at this point considering SJ is allowing his agent to talk to other teams and the announcement of a $9m starting negotiation.

Prior comps are important and shouldn't be ignored, but nor should all the factors surrounding those previous trades... and how the situations likely differ. DeBrincat is probably still the most relevant comp because it involved very little drama, DeBrincat would have resigned in CHI and CHI could afford him, and DeBrincat &amp; Meier are in the same tier, though their play style is different
Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 11:06 a.m.
Thread: Meier Trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lancebmx</b></div><div>I think Holtz instead of Shara is too much. Looking at comparable trades I feel this is more than alot of comparable players that have been traded in the past.</div></div>

If SJ doesn't at least get DeBrincat value then they should do everything possible to keep Meier. Not worth it otherwise. Ideally they get more with teams being able to work an extension before the trade like Tkachuk did (cat went without one)

The idea is changing the trade to remove Sharangovich and get SJ quality prospects NJ has to spare... didn't have to focus on holtz+muk necessarily. 1st could be downgraded since Muk would be a 1st rounder in a redraft. Holtz would also drop out of the top 10 in a 2020 redraft
Holtz+Casey+2nd
Nemec+2nd
Muk+Holtz
Holtz+Walsh+1st
Don't get hung up on these values, I just don't think SJ should go for Shar. Doesn't make sense.
Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 10:46 a.m.
Thread: Meier Trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldBoisClubSandwich</b></div><div>Comrie, Korpisalo, and Reimer don't have any value and Comrie is prolly negative due to his contract

I think you're right with retention iterations for SJ.



Holtz + Muk + 1st is way too much for rental Meier, esp with no retention. Shar is kinda exactly what SJ needs in terms of a winger, prolly more valuable this year and next for NJ than Holtz.

Who else is in it for Meier with resign that he'd want to join [not Buff]?</div></div>

Meier isn't a rental. That narrative needs to fall off a cliff.

Downgrade the 1st to 2nd or work out some other combination of prospects that I listed. Point is SJ doesn't need Sharangovich they need high end quality prospects. Meier is kinda sorta the kind of winger SJ needs and they should resign him instead of downgrade to Sharangovich
Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 4:30 a.m.
Thread: Mark Stone comp for Meier
Stone's ask was a lot scarier back then. I don't think 9m for Timo is.
NJ probably has the best chance to make a deal fair for both sides considering Fitz and Grier's history, and that it's easy to imagine that NJ would likely be Timo's #1 desired location due to how well they are playing and Hischier. I don't think Grier would be forced into a deal like this.
A Muk+2nd only package for Meier would be way less useful to the team compared to extending Meier as a core piece to rebuild around.
Holtz makes a lot of sense coming back for future scoring needs, but I don't think it has to be a line in the sand. Grier will probably ask NJ for both a F and D prospects coming back, especially RD since having to dish Merks. This assumes Fitz doesn't try grabbing another top-6 winger on the market if Meier is too expensive, but his statements seemed to indicate he's willing to dish out serious assets.
Forum: Armchair-GMFri. at 3:23 p.m.