Oct. 5, 2020
San Jose Sharks
2nd Favourite Team
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<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Tintin</b></div><div>Okay, but what happens if Meier doesn't wanna extend for a retool / rebuild in San Jose?
What happens if Meier is only interested in doing a sign-and-trade with just the one team?
Meier's 10m QO makes his situation eerily similar to that of a pending UFA, in fact for all intents and purposes he is one, because no team trading for him would be interested in signing him to his qualifying offer.
That's not to say he is a rental, he is unlikely to be one, but not being a rental =/= not being a pending UFA.
You actually say it yourself here:
How is this what you said any different for Mark Stone, or any other pending UFA you are given the option to talk an extension with before the trade goes down?
The foundational principles of supply and demand, prior comparables, market competitiveness and (most importantly in the context of the NHL) game theory doesn't just vanish because Timo Meier is the current flavour of the TDL.
It's not like I don't get from a Sharks fan's perspective.
Trading star wingers away sucks, you're almost never getting the same returns as you think you'd get and especially so when compared to RHDs and Cs.
I felt very defensive about the return Hall 'should've' gotten vs the one the Devils ended up with for the longest time, but ultimately it is the reflection of the realities of the NHL.</div></div>
Yes, If Meier makes it clear he doesn't want to sign in SJ and there's not a lot of interest from other teams then his trade value goes down
Yes, If Meier is only interested in a sign-and-trade with just one team his trade value goes down
I said how I think the Mark Stone situation was different. OTT didn't want to pay him what he wanted. SJ wants Meier and will pay him. Huge difference there.
But it's ridiculous to cite these hypotheticals as definitively decreasing Meier's trade value. They're just possibilities, just like my dream of something like 1st+holtz+muk is possible if the competition for Meier is high. If we get evidence for these hypotheticals having some basis of truth then that changes things.
A rental implies SJ will trade him to a team that won't resign him, which I think is really unlikely at this point considering SJ is allowing his agent to talk to other teams and the announcement of a $9m starting negotiation.
Prior comps are important and shouldn't be ignored, but nor should all the factors surrounding those previous trades... and how the situations likely differ. DeBrincat is probably still the most relevant comp because it involved very little drama, DeBrincat would have resigned in CHI and CHI could afford him, and DeBrincat & Meier are in the same tier, though their play style is different