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ricochetii

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Forum: Armchair-GMMay 2 at 4:40 p.m.
Thread: Next season
I'll say it again. No point acquiring a top 2C until we see what we get from the next 2 drafts.
Ditto for wingers, unless we are moving vets and replacing them with younger, less term, cheaper, stop gaps while prospects develop.
Double ditto for LHD.

We only need:
1. A RHD vet capable of supporting the development of a young partner IF Petry leaves.
2. A starting or tandem goaltender IF Price is unable to play.

All we should be doing, is unloading players who will not be a factor in 3 years or who are replaceable from within.
Hoffman and Drouin should be gone.
Armia and Byron are on the fence because they don't take prime ice time, but their cap could be an obstacle.
Gallagher and Anderson will be anchors for the development of our youth and contributing veterans down the road.
Dvorak is needed to lessen the pressure on younger centers at least for a little while.
Savard can be replaced once we have someone ready to do so.

UFAs and big ticket trades might speed up the process, but it shouldn't be our goal. The objective is to build, build, build, then compete for a decade. Not build and bubble for several more years.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 29 at 1:41 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 26 at 4:45 p.m.
Thread: Quicker
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TampaBayLightning22</b></div><div>With Dahlin moving to RD Buffalo doesn't need Petry, And Pierre-Luc Dubois would cost Nick Suzuki for starters.</div></div>

If it starts with Suzuki, it also ends with him.
He is already outpacing PLD in production, while playing all situations with less favorable deployment. There's no reason to make that trade 1-for-1, let alone add.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Shibbal18</b></div><div>The Sabres arent interested in Petry</div></div>

Dahlin on the left and pairing with someone younger may not be ideal. For the sake of 11 spots in the latter half of the round (or swapping a 2nd for a 3rd, from another thread), it could be a better idea.
The cost is low enough for there to be a potential profit from flipping Petry later, and you get a veteran partner for either defender in the meantime, while also keeping Dahlin on his strong side.
Not that I think Montreal should do it, but Buffalo should be interested at that price.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 23 at 1:29 p.m.
Thread: What is Petry 15 team no trade list
Petry will consider waiving for any American team, regardless of his NTC, and Montreal isn't likely to send him somewhere he isn't okay with anyway.

The main barrier is the border. It's the biggest obstacle between him and his family due to border restrictions. Even if those are relaxed, there's always the possibility of it tightening up again.
His family traveling domestically is less of a concern. They would likely prefer a team close to home, but even if he's on the west coast, there will be multi-game homestands where they can reconnect for a week or more.

It's a decision they'll have to make when we get to that point. Montreal will present him with the options that make enough sense for the team, even if one is clearly better for them.
Petry's family will have to decide which city works best for them. Distance is one concern for sure, but if it's between a 4 hour car ride or a 4 hour flight, there are pros and cons to either.
Then there's the city itself and how family friendly or convenient it is. Where can they stay, where can they spend their time, how can they get around, etc.

An NTC is an inconvenience more than anything. It ensures the team can't just send a player wherever without their input. If there's trust and cooperation involved in moving a player, NTC's aren't going to prevent a deal that makes sense for both parties.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 22 at 6:35 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 22 at 11:57 a.m.
Thread: Lots of TRADE Talk around Gallagher
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>McRanteskog</b></div><div>lets look. hes got 5yr at 6.5mil remaining (sheeeesh)

19-20 - 43pts and missed 12 games due to injury/illness
20-21 - 23pts and missed 21 games due to injury/illness
21-22 - 20pts and missed 26 games due to injury/illness

at 6.5mil, he should be producing minimum 55+ pts/season and is nowhere near those levels nor is he staying healthy..

We are looking at a cap dump with heavy compensation or a buyout here if you ask me (IF he gets moved this offseason).
Its in MTLs best interest to hold onto him now in hopes he has a good 22-23 season and trade him when his value is higher.</div></div>

Ideally you don't want a player missing that many games, but his injuries aren't chronic. They are bad luck, like taking a puck to the hand. It's not knee, hip, back, concussion, where you can expect it to be a regular occurrence.

His injuries are a result of putting himself in dangerous areas of the ice. Coaches love those players and they are necessary.
How often do you see skill players or otherwise soft players criticized for not going to the dirty areas? Every coach wants those guys. Whether they have them for 60 games or 80, they'll take it.
There's no question that teams want Gallagher.

Now GMs have to find a way to make it work. Be that money in/out or retention. Gallagher is not grossly overpaid. Using his raw totals is misleading.
In '20 and '21, he had his 3rd best p/60 pace both years. He was also on pace for 30 goals. That would have been 4 consecutive 30 goal campaigns were it not for bad luck with injuries.
A 4 time 30 goal scorer is easily worth that contract and the 50 point total you suggest would have been met as well extrapolated for a full season.
Gallagher is from 10-30th among RW for total goals, per game, and per 60 over the last 3 years. Including his injuries and this season's poor results.

Teams would want him. His hands getting injured is the only real concern and blown out of proportion (how often does one player get hit in the hands by Weber caliber slapshots?). He's only 30 and still has at least a few good years in him.

His contract is a bargain if he can return to a 30 goal pace and only miss a handful of games. It's a problem if he repeats this season's results in a better situation (not on a historically bad team).

A couple picks and get him at $5M or less, either via retention or sending a contract back, isn't bad at all. Even if there's conditions on the picks, Montreal will take that bet. He's going to be better next year regardless of where he plays, the only question is how much.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 19 at 2:31 p.m.
Thread: Kraken
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DeadWingsv2</b></div><div>No, it just proves that I'm not a Montreal slappy, like you. I've not watched them all, but I've seen quite a few Habs games this year and he has visibly slowed down. If you don't notice that, what are you even watching? He's on the books for 6.25m through age 37 in a league where speed matters. If you think he's good, then keep him and enjoy that contract.</div></div>

Petry's mobility has not changed, his deployment has. He's gone from a 55/45 offensive split, to 45/55 defensive.
Combine that with Ducharme's obviously flawed system, the lack of a top 4 RD behind him, no steady partner (especially with injuries), Montreal's lack of scoring and PP success, mental struggles due to separation from family, etc.
There's no single reason Petry has had a less productive than usual season. Age barely registers as one of them. He's the same player, the situation is the variable.

He has 14 points in his last 22 games. He's coming around since Montreal has replaced Ducharme, Edmundsson has returned, scoring is up, and the trade issue is temporarily on hold. With the off season approaching, seeing family is less difficult to manage and more of something to look forward to.

His contract only becomes a problem when his age does affect his performance, which has NOT been the case as of yet. One of the worst contracts in the league is a ridiculous take. You obviously haven't watched enough or have confirmation bias.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 14 at 11:38 p.m.
Thread: Let the kids play
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jonh514</b></div><div>There's something to be said for addition by subtraction. Some of the Rocket players like RHP &amp; Ylonen have earned a shot with the big club through their consistently excellent play.

Armia's lack of commitment bugs me and he should be benched to make room for someone who will actually do more with less than half of the skill Armia's got.
Hoffman's alright, and I'd be open to keeping him, but I wonder if Roy looks so good at rookie/training camp that they give him a cup of coffee and see what he's got. If he was born a few weeks later he'd be a top 5 pick in this year's draft.

I noticed you omitted any criticism of my Drouin Buyout. Liked that one did you?</div></div>

Buying out Drouin is just extending his cap impact into next season. Retain half and move him at the deadline or let him walk to free agency. We don't need to spend extra money this year.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 14 at 12:58 p.m.
Thread: The wright offseason
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>gmgb</b></div><div>Hoffman's only ever been good at goal scoring, and he doesn't even do much of that anymore. He's washed, and that contract doesn't help NSH after 22-23, when Jeannot, Carrier and Fabbro all need new deals. Even he can hang on and not regress any further over the next two seasons, he doesn't seem like a good fit for John Hynes at all.

Mysak would be nice to have, but he's not a must have for NSH. They have a lot of centers with term right now (Granlund, Johansen, Sissons), and center prospects with more upside than Mysak (Glass, Svechkov). He's a luxury, not a necessity, and not as valuable to NSH as any of the aforementioned RFAs the Preds might not be able to afford, if they're stuck with Hoffman's contract.</div></div>

There's two problems with Hoffman:
1. He's being used too much at even strength without favorable deployment.
2. Montreal's power play is bad and he hasn't changed that. If the PP was even league average, Hoffman might look a little better.

Surprisingly, he's only a -3 on ice goal differential.
He's been visibly bad, too much holding the puck and slow decisions, but somehow not as terrible as you'd expect from watching him play.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 14 at 12:47 p.m.
Thread: Offszn
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pensburgh571</b></div><div>1) pens don't have to move zucker to re-sign letang. Zucker has produced almost a PPG since returning from injury and is an important part of the pens top 6
2) Zucker is almost 5 years younger than Petry, only signed for one more season as opposed to 3 more seasons, and is making almost 1 million less. So there is not a comparison here.
3) There are better FA defenseman as options this summer before trading for a bad contract</div></div>

$30M to re-sign Letang, Malkin, and Rust. Along with several other spots to fill.
Minimum of $5.5M to sign seven bodies.
About $24M left to keep the 3 biggest UFAs.

Malkin 9, Letang 8, Rust 7? That's $24M alone.
Rodrigues, Kapanen, Heinen, and Rakell aren't signing for league minimum either.
So who do you let go?

Zucker makes the most sense to clear cap space and somebody has to go (or multiple somebodies).
You aren't getting better than Petry for less than $6.5M. Letang and Klingberg will be $8M(ish) and probably with longer than a 3 year term.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 14 at 11:57 a.m.
Thread: Offszn
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pensburgh571</b></div><div>Have you actually watched him play at all? or just assuming that he is a cap dump?</div></div>

Zucker is about as marketable as Byron. Nobody is taking him without 50% retained.
Since Pittsburgh wants to maximize their spending, it makes more sense to throw Zucker away at full salary, and replace him at half the cost, than it does to retain and get something for him.

Call it a cap offset as opposed to a cap dump. You aren't paying to get rid of him, so it isn't a dump in that sense. You're reallocating his salary to an area of need.

If you want to move his full cap hit in order to re-sign Letang, then it's going to be difficult to move him without taking salary back or having a 3rd party retain.
Not a cap dump by default, but the situation might require giving something up to incentivize a trade. It depends on how quickly he needs to be moved.

I wouldn't pay to unload Byron because Montreal isn't under pressure to move him, but if they needed $3.4M to address UFA signings before losing those players, it would be a different situation.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 13 at 9:29 p.m.
Thread: cashing in on unreasonable hate
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dannibalcorpse</b></div><div>I think you gotta staple Petry to Jordan Harris for the last 2 weeks of the year and see if there's chemistry there - I think Harris has LD1 potential for Montreal and giving him that audition while playing out the string could be a huge boost for him. And yeah - I think that Petry is probably worth a 2nd+a B-level prospect, I just think Levi is an A/A+ goalie prospect for a team that is D E S P E R A T E for a franchise goalie ever since Ryan Miller left in 2014.</div></div>

I think Petry should be playing with Edmundson to raise his value if he's being moved. If he's staying, Harris is a better idea.

I wouldn't trade Levi, just as I wouldn't have traded Primeau a few years ago. The potential value is just so much higher than the actual value. You keep any promising goaltender until they implode or you have a better one.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 13 at 9:05 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 13 at 8:57 p.m.
Thread: cashing in on unreasonable hate
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dannibalcorpse</b></div><div>as an aside, I'm sure Flyers fans appreciate you thinking their pick will land in the middle of the 2nd next season, because I sure don't. I was assuming that pick would land in the mid-30s, early in the 2nd.

I think your first part is where it ends up. Petry is staying in Montreal. This year obviously sucked for him personally but it's beginning to seem like it's (hopefully) not going to be as big of an issue to see his family with COVID restrictions beginning to lift in the US and Canada, so I think that will work in his favor. And again, I think we both agree that Montreal trading Petry this offseason would be foolish - you're selling him at the absolute nadir of his value. Give him next season to see if he can recapture his game under MSL and either provide good value for the Habs, or become a tradable asset again. The absolute worst case scenario is you're where you are now - except with a year less term left on his deal at the deadline.</div></div>

Flyers are trying to compete and I believe they will make moves toward that goal, so I'm not counting them in the basement ... Yet.

As for Petry, I hope he does stay. Regardless of what happens, we are short on the right side and I don't want to see us handing out another Savard contract or a likely prohibitive Letang/Klingberg contract in free agency.

We need veteran support for our D prospects. I think Buffalo does too. I'd be willing to give up a 2nd+ for a similar player if one were available. There's just nobody like that which can be had unless the player or contract are worse.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 13 at 5:10 p.m.
Thread: cashing in on unreasonable hate
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dannibalcorpse</b></div><div>Justin Schultz has won two Cups, and so has Jan Rutta. Justin Braun has played in more than double the amount of playoff games that Petry has. PK Subban has won a Norris Trophy.

I'll reiterate that I'm not saying that Petry is a bum, I'm just saying that he's a bad fit for Buffalo, especially at that price. If Buffalo is looking for a veteran to mentor their young D corps, there are plenty of options in UFA that are guys that have been more successful than Petry - whether that's individual success or being part of championship teams - and they will all cost less in both AAV and cost to acquire.

If Montreal really wants to move Petry (which is dumb to begin with because they'd be selling at his rock bottom value at this point), he makes the most sense for a contending team that needs top 4 RHD help and who can stomach the acquisition cost. Otherwise, you're stuck with him for 3 more years.

edited to add: just wanted to point out the irony that you say "without giving up 1sts, quality prospects or paying more for longer" - Buffalo is one round off on the pick from doing all three at once here, which is why I'm saying the value is horrible</div></div>

Montreal doesn't want to move Petry. He wants to move. We'd happily be "stuck" with him. We have neither the depth or quality of player to replace him, and could use him for the same reasons.
If you feel another player offers more for less, I'd be satisfied if every single team turned down any Petry trade.

Including Levi is debatable. I said that already. A goaltender will never be more valuable outside of the organization until they have proven they can perform at the professional level.
There's a big difference between a mid 2nd and a mid 1st. It's not simply "off by 1 round".

I'd love to send him to a contender instead, but not many teams manage to be contenders without already having their top 4D or the cap space to add one.
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