sedin33

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Forum: Armchair-GM20 hours ago
Thread: Is this fair
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeterChiarelli</b></div><div>Virtanen is 24 in 10 days. Knock it off.

<a href="https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/03/23/a-new-look-at-aging-curves-for-nhl-skaters-part-1/#:~:text=Rob%20Vollman%20summarizes%20this%20quite,by%20age%2034%20or%2035.%E2%80%9D" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/03/23/a-new-look-at-aging-curves-for-nhl-skaters-part-1/#:~:text=Rob%20Vollman%20summarizes%20this%20quite,by%20age%2034%20or%2035.%E2%80%9D</a>

Rob Vollman is considered one of the true experts of statistical hockey analysis, and I refer a lot to his work. The big takeaway in the link I supply is shown in the highlight:



While he does state that some players can plateau in the age range of 22-25, what you see is what you get by the time a player reaches 24-25. This represents a statistical average: in order for Virtanen to "beat the odds", his style of play would have to fundamentally change. Either the way he shoots, how frequently he shoots, or where he shoots from has to drastically change. Given that hockey players are notoriously habitual, what seem like simple changes to us as fans is more of a cerebral undertaking than we give it credit for.

<a href="https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20192020&amp;thruseason=20192020&amp;playerid=8477937&amp;sit=5v5&amp;stype=2" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20192020&amp;thruseason=20192020&amp;playerid=8477937&amp;sit=5v5&amp;stype=2</a>

All numbers below are at 5v5.It's worth noting that his goal scoring over the past 3 seasons, at least at even-strength, haven't changed much. The average of 30 goals over the last 3 seasons is very much in-line with what his actual production was.

Delving into Virtanen's numbers suggests that he's averaging 123 shots per season with about 12 minutes of icetime over the last three seasons. The variation in this number is minimal, as is his average number of games played: Virtanen suits up for about 71 games per season (granted, the shortened season this year is a factor in this number). His shooting percentage hovers around 8.11% over this same timespan, but if we opt to discount his lower shooting percentage from the 17/18 season and assume his true shooting percentage is more in line with what we've seen over the last two seasons, his average only slightly improves to 8.75%.

All of this suggests that Virtanen shoots the puck once just shy of every 7 minutes he plays. If his shooting percentage cannot be changed, the only way he can score more is if he opts to shoot the puck more or if he sees more icetime. Icetime does not immediately improve on his results: a jump from 12 minutes per night to 14 would suggest he consistently takes two shots per game. The math results in about 142 shots per season, and with his 8.75s%, would result in 12 or 13 goals per season. One or two more goals. Connor McDavid is not exclusively a play-making centerman and does shoot the puck a fair bit. Virtanen - as McDavid's winger - would not necessarily shoot more than he already does. 12 to 13 goals should still be expected, it's the change in primary and secondary assists that would drive any substantial increase in points for Virtanen.

I am ignoring powerplay production for the time being: I don't think Virtanen would get much - if any - in Edmonton, as the #2 unit never sees action as it is, and I suspect that Hoglander and Lind will consume any prospects Virtanen will get on the man advantage in the future for the Canucks.

I genuinely don't believe any of the above is undervaluing Virtanen: he was on pace for 13 even-strength goals and 17 even-strength assists. That's good third-line production, and his powerplay utility this season is apt to net him more money than the average quality third liner.</div></div>

Yes he's 24 in 10 days meaning he isn't 24 yet. What do you mean knock it off?

"Most players peak by the age of 24 or 25". Well that's not ALL players. You are referring to the probability that he has peaked. You can't say that this is definitively the case.

Your points about Virtanen's offensive production the last 3 seasons are disingenuous. How can you claim that a player peaks at 24 and then take his 3 year average before he even turned 24?

Finally, you have a number of excuses for JP, he was young, had hip spurs, fourth line...blah blah blah. I agree that JP isn't in the same class as Virtanen. Virtanen is proven JP isn't. JP has potential to be a better top six, but also can be a bust
Forum: Armchair-GM21 hours ago
Thread: Is this fair
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeterChiarelli</b></div><div>Correct. The "translation factors" are based on dividing how a player scores in one league relative to the NHL. Because the math itself isn't smart enough to deduce strength of opposition, usage, etc., NHLe forces the assumption that Puljujarvi - as the top scorer on his Finnish team - must be Edmonton's top scorer. No other relative rates are assumed: the only thing compared is the strength of the leagues. The math for Puljujarvi is as follows:

NHLe = (Translation Factor)*(PPG in Liiga)*(82 NHL GP)
NHLe = (0.4696)*(53 points/56 Games)*(82GP)
NHLe = 36.4 points at the NHL level

Again, it's vitally important that we establish that this number assumes that Karpat's top scorer plays an identical role in Edmonton as the team's top scorer. There is no factor that distinguishes line mates. We know this is false: Edmonton has the two top scoring players in the league. The only "real" assumptions we make in this calculation is that Puljujarvi plays a full 82 games and that the fundamental nature of hockey doesn't change. There may be a mild effect if Puljujarvi plays #3RW as opposed to alongside McDavid or Draisaitl, but we can dismiss this, as Edmonton's crucial need for cheap top-six wingers suggests that he'll get every chance at the role.

I haven't dismissed that Virtanen is not a proven NHL winger: by this point in his career, he's a proven <em>third liner</em>. Any uptick in production should he be traded to Edmonton and played alongside a McDavid or Draisaitl will statistically be because of who is new center is, not because Virtanen just "awoke" in Edmonton. If Virtanen's career PPG of 0.341 is to be believed, he should be good for an annual 28-points.

To me, most Oiler fans, and likely Oilers management, there's more risk in assuming someone entering their Draft+7 season is apt to contradict their career trajectory as opposed to Puljujarvi reaching his projected NHLe. That 6 point gap, grouped with Puljujarvi being younger, having more potential to eclipse his NHLe, and coming in at a third of the price is more than enough to shoot this trade down.</div></div>

We both agree that we wouldn't do this trade. Fair enough.

So this is academic, but your rationale has significant flaws. First, you undervalue Virtanen. He has improved his goal scoring significantly. Why are you so certain it won't improve beyond the 21 goals per season pace he had this year? He's not even 24 years old yet.

Second, I think you are overvaluing JP. He hasn't fared very well in the NHL. Yes, he has similar stats as Virtanen at the same point in their careers except he has already played with McDavid and Draisaitl. He's played with RNH as well. All of these guys are better than Brandon Suter or Adam Gaudette (Jake's most common centermen).

In this case, I don't buy the probability that JP will eclipse Virtanen.
Forum: Armchair-GM23 hours ago
Thread: Is this fair
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeterChiarelli</b></div><div>No, my point is that mathematically Puljujarvi is at the same point in his career as Virtanen with 2 years to grow. The ceiling is substantially higher with Puljujarvi than Virtanen, and there's no incentive for Edmonton to make that deal.

What part of Virtanen am I underselling? His shot metrics are average and his production is that of a third-line forward. At this age, he effectively is what he is. Why would Edmonton sell on a defenceman with top-four potential for a guy who'd likely end up being the fourth or fifth best RW in Edmonton's system in 3 years?

Feel free to offer some actual, genuine evidence instead of anecdote after anecdote.</div></div>

Same point mathematically? Man you really are Chiarelli. JP is not even in the league. Virtanen is.

At the same point in their career mathmatically, Nico Hischier had more goals &amp; points than McDavid.

Your argument has some lofty assumptions for JP.
Forum: Armchair-GM23 hours ago
Thread: Is this fair
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>The_Rocket</b></div><div>I don’t have much interest in Caleb Jones. His d-zone positioning needs work and he gets caught cheating a lot from what I see.

He very may likely become a top 4 D-man but I don’t see how he is any better than Joulevi who suffers from the same deficiencies but has more upside.

Canucks also have Rathbone in the system who is a better LHD than both of them AND of course Quinn hughes on the back end as well.

Jones seems redundant in the pipeline. I think Edmonton is more likely to move Nurse to make room for Broberg and Jones than they are to move Jones on his own.

Nurse could bring back a very decent top 6 winger. Maybe domi</div></div>

Fair points, but for the Canucks having more young cost controlled dmen is good. Bring on Rathbone, Juolevi... Can't pay Edler $6M with the cap issues.
Forum: Armchair-GM23 hours ago
Thread: Is this fair
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeterChiarelli</b></div><div>Edmonton loses a Jones-Virtanen swap without more coming back to Edmonton. Jones showed he could handle top-4 minutes when he had to step up when Klefbom got hurt, Virtanen just figured out how to be a top-nine winger this season.

Virtanen just finished his Draft+6 season. Statistically speaking, what you're seeing from Virtanen is him entering his peak. Any upside the Oilers would be trading Virtanen for is solely based on that magical "but he plays with McDavid!" factor, and that's not something Edmonton should be basing ANY acquisition on (see: Milan Lucic). Puljujarvi meanwhile, still has the two years of "developing" time before he's 24 and thus finishing his D+6 season. There's more to gamble on with Puljujarvi than there is Virtanen.</div></div>

LOL your point is that JP is slower to develop so a better option? I understand the statistical peak argument. Based on that, JP is 2 years away from entering his peak statistically. He would have to really improve to even get to the same point as Virtanen.

I think you are really underselling Virtanen. Jones for Virtanen even up is a bonus for Edmonton. But, you're entitled to your opinion.
Forum: Armchair-GMFri at 11:31 am
Thread: Is this fair
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeterChiarelli</b></div><div>I'm going to say no based on what we saw Puljujarvi accomplish in Finland post double-hip surgery.

As the best player on Karpat's roster, Puljujarvi had an NHLe of 34 points: while he hasn't yet hit that total in the NHL, the odds he does it - given that he's only 22 years old and would likely play with McDavid upon returning - are considerable. At $1M, Puljujarvi is going to represent great value if he's hitting the 30-40+ point range at that kind of deal.

Virtanen might hit more, but will cost more and has offensively peaked at what Puljujarvi's baseline might be. Does Virtanen find another gear in Edmonton? Maybe? But Puljujarvi might as well: he's coming back to a completely different team, older, and without lingering hip spurs. I'd rather take the cheaper guy and use the extra money to chase Hall.</div></div>

virtanen is only 2 years older than JP. How do you know that Virtanen has peaked offensively? How do you even know JP is a NHL player let alone a top 6 player? JP has promise, but not sure what he gives Vancouver. I would prefer Caleb Jones for Virtanen
Forum: Armchair-GMThu at 8:26 am