Big John T
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Sep. 6, 2018
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Forum: NHL TradesMar. 12, 2019 at 12:40 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>kaljakori</b></div><div>Bad dman for a meh, but overpaid, mid-6 forward. What is GMJR doing?</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>toque</b></div><div>Can't believe any team would be in on Gusbranson with that contract. Him and Jack Johnson as a pairing..</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ProfessorFuzzymuffins</b></div><div>I am now convinced that Jim Rutherford lost his mind after winning consecutive Stanley Cups.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CFMan</b></div><div>Gudbranson is Badbranson. Vancouver Wins, Pearson is a good 3rd liner.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MountRoyal514</b></div><div>Gudbranson was a perfect d-man for a different era : really big and really mean. Those attributes are far less useful now, he hasn't surpassed 15 points in a season. But Pitts has injuries and I guess that forced their hand. And the per-season cost is pretty much the same.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jasondomitrovic</b></div><div>I think Pittsburgh wins because Tanner was doing nothing for us. Gudbranson could improve greatly with the influence of Gonchar because the skills that Serg has Gudbranson needs. This is the key element and Pittsburgh had to add a D man.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>rangersandislesfan</b></div><div>I think Vancouver wins the trade. Pittsburgh adds defence to help them out but I don't see it as a fair deal. I see Pearson having more value than Gudbranson.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>They needed someone to keep teams honest. They got a guy who went toe to toe with wilson who tried to jump him and won.

People aren't looking at this trade right. The penguins won this trade. He'll help clean up some of the thuggery. They unloaded pearson which had to happen. I hope they bring in Angelo for the forward spot now.

Too worried about his defensive stats. He'll be fine. He has a lot more talent around him now.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PrisonBull</b></div><div>I can't believe the Canucks got an NHL playerer in return for Guddy. He has the worst +/- in the league. Much like the Spooner/Gagner trade, the contract is a wash with the Canucks saving $250K in cap space. Big win for GMJB.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>punchmaster11</b></div><div>What in the name of Mike Lange is GMJR doing?!</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>oilersfan089</b></div><div>Wow, another weird one. I guess Pitts really need a dman to fill some holes caused by injuries, but Gudbranson? I'm sure they could have traded Pearson to Edmonton for Russel, who is at least more useful and doesn't take as many penalties as Gudbranson (*_* )/`83pms`\( *_*) and a glorious -27 (but who really cares about +/- in our advanced stats age "\(~.~)/"). Don't even ask about his advanced stats. Vancouver gets another overpaid bottom 6 "vet", which I'm sure they're fine with. Speed on the back end (skating and puck movement), a youthful top 6 that is offensively potent, and a bottom 6 full of overpaid "vets" that will probably throw everything at a playoff run when it comes. But an aging roster in Pittsburgh isn't winning anytime soon utilizing Pearson in a bottom 6 role; they have enough players that can slot in there right now. I'm guessing they look at how the Islanders have been winning and realize they need more grit, strength, and size on their back end, simply to get out there against the Isles big 4th line (Martin, Clutterbuck, Cizikas); that is a mean line that isn't well contained in the East style of play.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Missouri</b></div><div>OH! Penguins :shakehead Horrible deal. He is a large defenseman but still. You had to trade forward help for him!</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>awesome</b></div><div>Should have got Vancouver to retain a bit, Gudbranson is not worth 4mil a year from the looks of it, it is nice to have somebody to beat the other teams goons up but 4mil is a lot for an enforcer that Sullivan may or may not play(I.E Reaves)</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BoltsPoint21</b></div><div>If you think Pittsburgh in anyway won the trade... I have no idea what to say.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Erik Gudbranson (to Penguins, ahahaha) is a terrible, truly, truly terrible defender. Just, like, so bad. <a href=""></a></p>&mdash; Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) <a href="">February 25, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="" charset="utf-8"></script>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>gregb569</b></div><div>all wrong once again</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>thelastlongbow</b></div><div>Gudbranson is also an RHD while only being 27. I don't think this is as bad a trade as they're saying.</div></div>

The trade verdict at this point is:
58 - Vancouver wins
4 - Fair deal
4 - Pittsburgh wins

<a href="" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Gudbranson possession stats for 5on5-close</a>: 59.2% CF, 58.3% FF
Gudbranson has led the entire Penguins in Corsi/Fenwick since the trade, without sheltered zone starts.
Crosby not getting punched is just a bonus

<a href="" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Pearson is scoring at 1.8 G/60, 85.9% CF, 56.1%. </a>

Both have played 6 games. It's early, but there is a good chance of this trade working out for both teams.

Let this be a lesson to all the negative nancies who pooh-pooh any potential trade. You can't win anything if you don't take action, and there's no trophy for the person who wishes the hardest to get the lopsided trade of their dreams. A dozen opinions on a forum weigh up to diddly squat in reality.

It's so comfortable to go after UFAs, but most of them end up being anchors. A GM with guts can get a better deal in the trade market.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 2, 2019 at 4:44 p.m.
You're stuck with Lucic barring a minor miracle where he wants to leave and join the very team that wants him at his full $6 million cap hit

4 more years, and then the Oilers can start fresh with a 27 year old McDavid hoping to win his first playoff game and start growing again

$6 million with a cap increase of $3 million per year (the increases have been steady even though revenues have been lagging and the escrow clawbacks climbing)
2019: 6 / 82.5 = 7.27%
2020: 6/85.5 = 7.02%
2021: 6/88.5 = 6.78% *8 team trade list
2022-2023: 6/91.5 = 6.56% **10 team trade list

Those final 2 years will have the Oilers paying purely to dump his cap hit.
Any forward earning more than 5% of the cap must be playing in the top 6 and special teams to deserve it.
Lucic's decline will accelerate given his age + weight + the reffing is allowing a faster game.

Bide your time, encourage him to be a good teammate that looks out for the younger kids.
Bank a bunch of prospects. If you're lucky, Lucic will agree to a trade to a team willing to rent out their cap space for prospects.
If you're really lucky, you can LTIR him for life but there's no advantage doing that before the 2021 season as there are other bad contracts like Russell and there's no buildup of prospects waiting to rush in.

This roster is at $88 million for next season. The Oilers are so screwed it would actually make sense to trade McDavid. Imagine if the Penguins were trying to now win their first cup with Crosby -- and he's got a 13 year contract that's not allowed today that softens his cap hit.

Toronto would have in the past entertained McDavid for Matthews straight up, and the Oilers could have flipped Matthews to Arizona for a truckload of picks and prospects.
McDavid may be worth his money but it's a short list of teams that have the cap room and flexibility with NTCs to take him on today.

I'd phone Joe Sakic in Colorado if they win the draft lottery with Ottawa's pick. Especially if there's a lockout coming, McDavid and Draisatl get paid no matter what, and the Oilers are already having trouble renewing seasons tickets with an expensive brand new stadium during an oil slump.
Jack Hughes + Tyson Jost + Nicolas Meloche + 3x COL 1st = 6 first round picks, 21 and under today = at least 4 NHLers hitting their prime when Lucic and Russell leave

That's just McDavid, you could dump Draisatl in NJ or NYI. Or you can hold on for 4 years and have a team that's not as good as if you had been bold
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 25, 2019 at 7:10 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 25, 2019 at 6:13 p.m.