1. Luke Hughes (LD, NHL)
Just as good of a skater as his brothers despite being significantly taller. Elite offensive upside. I see a lot of people ragging on his defensive game, and I don't know if we're watching the same player. At the NCAA and WJC level he looked solid defensively, and against Carolina he made a number of great plays on the back end. I would go so far as to say he's already an upgrade over Graves at 2LD.
2. Simon Nemec (RD, AHL)
Point totals may suggest Jiricek has been the better of the 2022 draft's top defensemen, but a closer look tells a different story. At 5v5, Nemec blows Jiricek out of the water, but he was so far down the depth chart that not only did he not get an NHL stint, he wasn't even playing PP1 in Utica--Walsh was. He put up the best D1 season of any AHL defenseman in a very long time--if not ever. Like Hughes, he projects as a number one defenseman, strong offensively and in transition.
3. Alex Holtz (W, AHL)
I've seen a lot of negativity around Holtz on this site and elsewhere, but I believe there is nothing to suggest that he cannot be an elite complementary dual threat. He still has his elite shot of course, but he has always been a great playmaker as well. His skating, while average, is no longer a glaring fault. Where he fails currently is in his pace of play; his feet are moving fast enough but his brain isn't. I think he makes the team this year, ideally with Hughes and Bratt/Mercer but more likely with Palat and Haula. He'll never be 'the guy' on his own, but with strong transition linemates that create space for him and PP1 deployment he can and will put up numbers.
4. Akira Schmid (G, NHL)
Schmid will be an NHL goaltender, and a competent one at that. He is huge, calm under pressure, and super solid positionally, so he hardly ever moves to make a save. Stylistically he's very similar to Connor Hellebuyck, though it would be a stroke of luck for him to reach that level of consistency. Wheeler at The Athletic ranked him 8th among goalie prospects, saying his biggest weakness was a wide stance that made the transition in and out of butterfly inefficient. Reportedly the team wants him in the AHL to start the year. With Daws injured and Schmid still young for a goalie, I believe a starter workload in Utica would be just as beneficial if not more so than a 1B or backup role in the NHL.
5. Seamus Casey (RD, NCAA)
Casey was a steal at the 2022 draft; a classic undersized defenseman value pick. He has elite skating, great vision, and flew under the radar putting up points on a stacked Michigan team. While he needs to bulk up a bit before turning pro, he has all the tools to do so. I believe that he would be best used as a forward, especially given our depth at defense. Due to his size and reliance on skill, he is a boom-or-bust prospect. Either his skill carries him into a top 4/top 6 role (maybe top 9 since we're so deep), or his game doesn't translate. I am a big believer in his skills, and he is still a few years away. Reports are he plans to turn pro when the NCAA season ends, and I would expect to see him in Utica for at least another year, or two if he stays at D
6. Arseni Gritsyuk (W, KHL)
Gritsyuk is an effective forward in the second best league in the world, which is impressive for a 22 year old taken in the 5th round. There is a small chance he pulls a Gusev and his game doesn't translate, but all signs point to him being at minimum a middle six complementary piece with a great shot. He recently signed a two year KHL deal, and he plans to come over when it expires. His presence on an ELC at that point in our window will be huge in keeping guys like Hughes, Holtz, and Nemec locked up long term.
7. Lenni Hameenaho (W, Liiga)
This guy is slow. Not only is he slow, but his stride is clunky and he lacks agility. He makes draft year Holtz look like a Hughes brother. Why then, is he in our top 10? Why did Dennehy claim that our staff ranked him in the first round? Hameenaho is perhaps the smartest player in his draft class. Liiga is by no means a fast league, but his brains so completely cover for his feet that he played a full season of men's pro in his draft year. Decent hands, too. If we can fix his skating, he is a lock to be an NHLer. If not, he won't even survive the AHL. He plans to return to Finland this season.
8. Nolan Foote (F, AHL)
Foote seems a lock to make the roster this year. He was a center in Utica, but is listed as LW and would be a natural fit as a replacement for Wood. He is limited in his upside, but he has all the tools to play a heavy bottom six role. His good shot should finally bring a scoring touch to the defensively sound but offensively inept super buddies, who can't find the twine to save their lives.
9. Topias Vilen (LD, AHL)
My personal favorite prospect. Fell in the draft due to a lack of offensive upside, but Vilen was a very solid defensive defenseman at the Liiga level in his draft year, and started putting up points in the following years. If he is able to adjust to the North American pace of play, he will be a solid depth defenseman, and if he can continue to grow his offensive game, he could find himself higher up a roster. If it all falls right, he's a John Marino.
10. Graeme Clarke (F, AHL)
Clarke wasn't projected to be much of anything until he was suddenly point per game in Utica as a D+4. He is still waiver-exempt, so he is a long shot to make the roster; he would have to earn a full-time spot since he's better off getting top line AHL minutes than riding pine. If he keeps developing well, he could be a solid top 9/middle 6 player.
Honorable Mentions:
Daws (G, AHL) - Played an NHL stint in 2021-22 and looked decent for his age. Bader has him at 50% to be an NHLer. He will miss a half the season with an injury.
Thompson (W, AHL) - Tops out as depth, but will be a permanent NHLer when someone picks him up on waivers this fall. Maybe he sticks around as 14th forward. Very little chance he turns out like his brother.
Filmon (W, AHL) - Good shooter, but not much else there. Has a long way to go before he's NHL ready. Very disappointing at dev camp. Devils twitter needs to pump the brakes on him.
Kallgren (G, AHL) - Was better than John Gibson in a 10 game NHL sample (per MoneyPuck GSAx/60)
Karpovich (D, MHL) - 2023 draftee. JFresh has him at a 56% chance to be an above-replacement NHLer. It will be a while before we see him in NA.