Devils currently have #10 pick at 81 points
8. SEA: 79 pts (33-34-13): 2 games remaining vs WPG, MIN
9. CGY: 79 pts (37-38-5): 2 games remaining vs VAN, SJS
10. NJD: 81 pts (38-39-5): 0 games remaining
The odds for the final four games are as follow (
per moneypuck)
4/16: SEA 34.3% -- vs -- WPG 65.7%
4/16: CGY 34.0% -- vs -- VAN 66.0%
4/18: SEA 48.8% -- vs -- MIN 51.2%
4/18: CGY 66.1% -- vs -- SJS 33.9%
Since we have the RW tiebreak, both teams would need 3 pts to overtake us. The odds for each:
SEA 3+ points....30.5%
CGY 3+ points....28.8%
Combined...
Both teams gets 3+ points...............8.8%
One team gets 3+ points...............41.7%
SEA & CGY both gets 0-2 points....49.5%
...in other words, Devils pre-lottery position....
8th place............8.8%
9th place..........41.7%
10th place........49.5%
...and when factoring weighted average
lottery odds, the probabilities of NJD actual draft position are as follows
#1 Overall............4.3%
#2 Overall............4.5%
#3 Overall............0.2%
#8 Overall............4.8%
#9 Overall..........29.5%
#10 Overall........46.4%
#11 Overall..........9.8%
#12 Overall..........0.4%
...or if you prefer odds in stead of probability
#1 Overall............1-in-23
#2 Overall............1-in-22
#3 Overall............1-in-650
#8 Overall............1-in-21
#9 Overall............2-in-7
#10 Overall..........1-in-2
#11 Overall..........1-in-10
#12 Overall..........1-in-225
In short, probabilities NJD pick improves/declines
Improves....43.3%
Stays #10...46.4%
Declines.....10.3%