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fangm

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Forum: Toronto Maple Leafs5 hours ago
Thread: Leafs 2024 2025 Offseason Discussion Part 1: Kill or Be Killed
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Rajvinder</b></div><div>Just throwing it out there that a few "insiders" I've spoken to have mentioned that they believe Mark Hunter is the leading GM candidate for both Edmonton (Holland is retiring) and Columbus.

Apparently he has recently been telling both teams that Marner would be a part of his strategy and given Marner's NMC that he feels he could get him cheap.

Pretty well known that Hunter put his job on the line to draft Mitch in Toronto and remains really close to Mitch and his family.

One person went as far as to say that the best case for Toronto might be if he goes to Columbus and they draft Sam Dickinson (London Knight) in which case Jirick and/or Mateychuck could become available in a Marner trade.

Also has someone say that they wouldn't be surprised if Hunter and Mitch worked together to hardball the Leafs including forcing Cowan into any Marner deal.</div></div>

This would be really scary.

I also don't put it past Marner to do something like this and only waive if certain conditions are met.
Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 12:01 a.m.
Thread: Seravalli Insights
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GMBL</b></div><div>Yeah, a lot of people are underrating the benefit of the Leafs taking back salary in a Marner trade, and suggesting a 3rd team or the Leafs retain on him. I could see them land both a middle/top 6 F and a top 4 D-man and a 1st (2025 or later-moving up the draft is a waste of Marner's value) with one of the players being on an expiring deal/pending RFA and the other with term and possibly another pick or prospect. In the case of UTAH, they have a ton of cap space and a lot of pending RFAs, so it could be something like Hayton+Durzi+2025 1st+a prospect and then UTAH might go out and acquire Montour's signing rights or maybe they deal someone else instead of Durzi.

That being said all signs point to Marner holding the Leafs hostage. The best course of action is to try to sign him for ~11.5M, but if he doesn't want to leave anything on the table then see if he's willing to waive. I think the Leafs best bet is to try trading him to Vegas for Theodore + Karlsson + maybe some futures.</div></div>

Haven't heard anyone else mention it but you could be right about a 3rd team. He makes league min this year after his signing bonus is paid so if the deal happens after July 1st then you could get someone like Chicago to retain $5.5M for a 3rd (only ~$387,500k in real money) and suddenly even if its a one year rental that is really attractive. Could also be really attractive to someone like Minnesota who have $14M in read cap next year but then just $1.6M after that so they can get him cheap next year then afford his full salary afterwards. Likely a few others teams in a similar position with a veteran or bad contract expiring who can only take $2.5M or $5.5M next year but can afford the full $11.5-$12M the year after.
Forum: Toronto Maple LeafsYesterday at 2:01 p.m.
Thread: Leafs 2023 2024 Season Discussion Part 7 - Shambles
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Rajvinder</b></div><div>I know people here doubt "insider takes" so feel free.to ignore if you want.

Been chatting with a few friends who work for the Leafs/MLSE.

From what I'm hearing they are considering four options:

1. Leave Shanny in charge and give him 2 seasons to see out his vision. They wouldn't let him trade any prospects of picks from the 2027 draft (or later). Idea is that he can run it back do whatever he feels will work and in 2 years if it's failing Matthews/Nylander/Marner are still young enough that their contracts can be moved and the team can tear it down.

2. Fire Shanny and leave Tre with the GM title but he and Pelley will split the President's job. Direction here would largely be a retool, moving out a few guys and try to win.

3. Blow it all up. There have been discussions about just a complete blow up including trading Matthews/Marner/Nylander/Rielly/Tavares. There are some people concerned that after Shanahan put his "team" in place he prioritized the people over the organization and that culture can't be changed without them all gone. This would essentially be what happened when Shanahan first came, wipe out the front office and start again.

4. Observation year. Pelley has only been on the job for 1.5 months. There is a thought that he might just let everything stay the same. Observe for a year then make decisions next year. This would mean no major moves without his approval, no big contracts, etc. but team stays the course for the most part unless he approves a big trade/UFA deal.

Seems like it's really all up in the air.</div></div>

I was pretty shocked when Ray Ferraro said that blowing it all up was something he heard they were considering. You are the second person with some insider knowledge to say that. CJ also alluded to it, how the team had a poor attitude, had been taught the media was out to get them, etc. and that was top down and would need major changes to fix. Even them I'm not sure it makes sense to blow it all up now, I'd rather even bring back Burke or someone who would be happy having 2-3 years to just try and make this team (build around Matthews) work before we blow it up.
Forum: Armchair-GMSun. at 9:28 p.m.
Thread: Offseason
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldNYIfan</b></div><div>I don't think that I'm underestimating the pressure on Blake at all. I've heard the "Fire Blake!" chants in CryptoDotCom Arena on some occasions when DuBois takes a penalty. And you're being gracious by saying that he made a horrible trade last summer -- the horrible error was to make a bad trade in order to sign DuBois to an absurd contract. And I agree that in order to trade DuBois, Blake is going to have to make it appealing to the other team. My criticism comes in the fantasy that Blake is stupid enough to compound his mistake(s) by using Byfield or Clarke as a "sweetener."

I think your characterization of Los Angeles fans as "casual" is ethnocentric. And I don't believe that the Los Angeles front office makes any decisions that aren't designed to improve the on-ice product. Your oft-repeated theory that some team would like to acquire Mitch Marner primarily in order to sell replica jerseys is, in my opinion, idiosyncratic.</div></div>

As someone who works in the game, if you are ignoring the business side then I don't know how to explain to you that ultimately 99% or owners care more about money than winning.
Forum: Armchair-GMSun. at 5:56 p.m.
Thread: Offseason
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldNYIfan</b></div><div>Aaah, I see that you got the point: without the pie-in-the-sky speculation that "Marner would likely resign if he waived to go there," which by no means follows, the Kings won't be trading Brandt Clarke for Mitch Marner.

Maybe MM waives just to get out of Toronto now that most of Leafs Nation is blaming him for the loss to Boston and wants to test free agency after the year is over. I think that that's a far more likely scenario <strong>wherever</strong> Mitch waives to go than that he foregoes testing the open market.</div></div>

If Marner doesn't agree to resign with the team he's going to I can see the Leafs just hanging onto him and letting him walk. Especially given the pressure on management, its a far worse look to trade him for nothing then fail next year then it is to have him walk and you can blame him for being unreasonable with his demands/refusing a trade/etc.

I also thing again that you are massively underestimating the pressure on Blake who made a horrible trade last summer. Trading Dubois will be hard without throwing in a sweetener and likely still taking back a bad contract. Buying him out would essentially be penalizing the team for 14 years while having just given away a top 6 PWF that is super hard to come by. If you hold him past his 26th birthday then the buyout isn't even an option anymore so his value tanks even more. If someone is willing to take him and its in a deal where you are getting a top 10 winger (by point production) then he'd be crazy not to take it.

I think I have a different perspective working in the game but not every decision is made based on what is best for the on-ice product. A lot is made based on what is best for business and Marner while hated by real fans is loved by casual fans. A big portion of LAs fan base would love the trade. It's similar to the Faber for Fiala trade which every hockey analyst said was absurd but went over well with casual fans in LA and hasn't been questioned much.
Forum: Toronto Maple LeafsSun. at 4:25 p.m.