Will use this as a top down explanation for moves:
1. RFA's will likely all be resigned outside of Mete. Roster has the size to hold everyone and Leafs like what they all bring
2. Samsonov is a tricky one to project. Closest comp I found was Forsbergs contract last year for around 2.75M. Inflated rate accounts for his previous experience as a starter.
3. Bunting could likely fetch more in terms of AAV on the open market but with term I doubt this number moves the needle towards him exploring UFA. Niederreiter and Rakell are my achetypes for the framework of his deal.
4. O'Reilly I'm guessing will continue on his trajectory of fitting well with the team. His number is again hard to compare, but the Kadri is good idea of the potential market if making it to UFA. I think top end in UFA for ROR would be around $6M, so assume a bit of a discount at $5M with really whatever term ROR prefers (assuming under 6 years in which AAV should fall more).
5. Leafs will have to choose between Kampf and Accari especially in regards to the season following's cap sheet. I'm assuming Leafs will love Accari and if that 4th line projects to look as good as it has I'd pencil in ZAR resigning as well. As for AAV, can't see Accari signing for any more than 2M, hes been the same impact of player for years, and production doesn't meet Jarnkrok's.
6. Murray comes with all sorts of questions, I almost guarantee he's not a Leaf come next season. There will be three options when it comes to his contract, hes offloaded for a pick, hes bought-out or he's somehow stashed on LTIR next season until he can be traded. Best guess is he's an LTIR piece but I see a trade for a late round pick being most realistic.
7. Third-line LW is a toss up right now, given how McMann is producing at an AHL level, I'd guess he's a roster lock for next season (or should be), he of course is interchangeable with Robertson, and ZAR can flow in and out if both plan to play. I'm still not sold on Robertson's ability to contribute at the NHL level, so if he's not ready to go, I would hope they try and capitilize on any value he has
Lastly, could be an absolute stretch that Knies can meaningfully contribute on the second line, I would think the alternative would just be to move him down a line and have Jarnkrok move back up. I also think that with the additional cap space projected, the team would look towards acquiring a serviceable defenseman to slot in instead of Timmins (probably rental since the cap situation will get much harder in the year following with Matthews, Nylander, Liljegren, Sandin all likely commanding meaningful pay raises)
Let me know what you think of the contract values and who potential fits on that right side could be.
Arizona can be thought of as a placeholder team, but Murray is in the last year of his deal with a low buyout cost. If a partner cannot be found then Leafs buy him out. Nevertheless, he holds value as a cap floor raiser for a year while also being a useable asset that could likely be flipped for a pick if he gets thrown on LTIR again
McDavid, Connor
$250,000)
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