Marner's camp would never take that low of a deal, especially when it buys a year of his free agency period.

ummmm if he doesnt take that then goodbye Marner, do you realise he's a winger who played with Tavares all damn year

Exactly. Also, Marner seems to have lost some leverage due to the fact that it's July 2nd and he hasn't been sheeted and Aho signed an offer sheet at $8.45 mill. If Marner thinks he's getting $2-3 mill more than Aho, who's a centre, than he's out to lunch and will have fun sitting/being traded next season. I thought my dollar amount was generous to be honest...

Hmmmmm

Um RFA money is a team thing rather than a league thing. Nylabder and Matthews set the bar. Aho contract helps but if he doesn't sign who pays more, the leafs or Marner especially with a year left

It is a league thing as well as a team thing, hence why other RFA's are waiting it out to see what other RFA's sign for to use them as comparables.

Do you realize Dubas caved and gave Nylander 7 million dollars AAV? Dubas could of held pat and let Nylander sit the season out but he didn’t. Instead he overpaid for someone who scored less goals than Ryan Reaves did lol. Then Dubas followed that up by letting Matthews become the second highest paid player behind McDavid on just a 5 year term walking him right to free agency. So after seeing that, when Marners lead the team in points two seasons in a row and has helped five line mates all get career highs in goals and points, why would he be the one who signs a team friendly contract? It doesn’t make sense for him and his camp in infinitely more stubborn than Nylanders for what it’s worth.

Aho signed a Grade 3 offer sheet which is minimal in terms of compensation - just a first, second and third round pick. For Marner to sign an offer sheet it would have to be a Grade 1 offer sheet - four first round picks for compensation. Not many teams have the balls or the picks or both to pull that off. And enough of the centre > winger argument. Look at the past decade of MVP players in the league. Half of them are wingers because they can drive play. Are you telling me Patrick Kane, Kucherov and Ovechkin all went into their contract negotiations and said “I guess you have to give me less cause I’m just a winger...” - of course not. They all got maximum value because they’re game breakers. Give your head a shake

Marner is not in the same ilk as Kane, Kucherov, and Ovechkin and if you think that than you may need to be admitted to an institution. Marner would not have had 94 points last season if he wasn't flanking Tavares. JT has increased his wingers' production throughout his career and is the one who drives production on his line. The minute they leave Tavares's side, they become far less effective players (see Okposo, Moulson, Parenteau, Bailey, etc.). To prove this, compare Tavares's and Marner's advanced stats. Tavares's Corsi for % is 51.69 without Marner on the ice while Marner's is only 39.06 without Tavares. Tavares's scoring chances for % was 54.22 without Mitch while Marner's was a measly 39.76. Similar percentages are true for expected goal % and high danger Corsi for %. Also, goals are worth more than assists in this league and Marner hasn't proved he can score more than 26 goals. I'm not paying a 26 goal scorer who has his production elevated by his centreman $10-12 mill. Maybe, you're the one who should give your head a shake and not overpay players in a cap era who aren't worth it.

I didn’t say Marner was the same ilk as those wingers and I did not use them as contract comparables. My point was that they drive play despite them not being centres and they were awarded their contracts for the deserved worth, accordingly.

Comparing Tavares’ previous wingers to Marner is a false equivalency in my opinion. None of those players possessed the same hockey IQ or cerebral decision making that Tavares did. He brought them up as far as he could but on their own they could not effectively impact a line. Marner however has proved the exact opposite to date. Every linemate he’s played with over consistent periods (ex: more than 20 games) have had career years with Marner in terms of points and/or goals. Go look at Kadri, Bozak, JVR, Hyman and Tavares’ numbers before and after playing with Marner - there definitely is a statistically significant trend.

So finally Marner and Tavares play a year together on the same line and the result was that they complemented each other extremely well. Both players hit career highs in points and Marner enabled Tavares to hit a career high in goals - which as you said is more important than assists. Well Tavares doesn’t crack 40 goals if it’s not for Marner. It’s an inter-dependent relationship and it benefits the Leafs. And because Dubas has set two RFA precedent deals (Matthews and Nylander) with paying players for potential and not for current worth it leads to one likely end result. Marner getting paid eight figures.

lol you think 6.9 million for 6 years for a guy that with matthews could get 70+ points on a breakout season similar to Marner? Mark my words that is not an overpay, Marner past 9 million is an overpay but a mixture of bad contracts in the league and f u c k ing paul marner is the reason why this is happening.

Notice how you had to say Nylander “could get” 70 points. He played an entire season with Matthews and tapped out at 60 points. Marner did get (notice the difference) 94 points and projects to replicate or exceed that in the coming years. So no it is not an overpay to give Marner 10 million for 90-100 pts a year.

Sure, Marner is definitely the highest quality winger that Tavares has ever played with. However, without Tavares, he wouldn't have produced close to 90 points - just look at the advanced numbers. Tavares only exceded his career high in points by 2 this season while playing with Marner. Mitch exceded his career high by 25 points while playing with Tavares this past season. I'm not paying a winger north of $10 mill when he relies so heavily on his centreman to produce. Marner, on his own, would not have been able to command 8 figures without flanking JT last season. 70 points can't make you 8 figures when the cap is at $81.5 mill.

I believe we could make a compromise. I think we can both agree that his primary stats may require $10 plus mill to the layman with a quick look at his hockeydb page but his advanced statistics say otherwise. How about $10 mill x 7 years? Or $10.3 mill x 8 years? If I'm breaking the 8 figure threshold, I want more UFA years under team control.

I think there’s common ground here for sure. Both Marner and Tavares benefit from playing with each other. Marner definitely benefited more than Tavares this year, but I don’t think Tavares ever envisioned himself scoring close to 50 goals and Marner almost helped him crack that threshold. Also, Marner playing with a bunch of 30 year olds in his first two years doesn’t help his numbers either, whereas Tavares played with guys similar to him in age and games played in the league.

Marners advanced stats like corsi and WAR might hurt his contract negotiations but his camp will counter by saying look at his primary point numbers which place him at the top of the league. Plus he plays and is trusted in all situations which arguably could make the case as him being their best all around player - again arguably.

The thing that complicated all this is what Dubas did with Matthews. If Matthews term was 7 or 8 years then this is an entirely different story. But because he gave Matthews five years on a hybrid bridge deal (Dreger called it that) it disrupted the RFA market. So now no one knows how to gauge one of the most talented RFA cohorts in league history. Ideally, the Leafs take at least a year or two of his free agency years like you said. Will be interesting to see how it unfolds.