SalarySwishSalarySwish
Forums/Armchair-GM

Tarasenko Gamble

Team: 2021-22 Montreal Canadiens
Initial Creation Date: Jul. 8, 2021
Published: Jul. 8, 2021
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Montreal's in kind of a weird spot, having just made a cup final after barely making the postseason. JFresh projected the team to finish 8 points out of the postseason without UFA signings, but Tatar and Danault alone have been worth about 6 standings points per year according to Evolving-hockey's model.

The Habs were also better than their standings placement indicated. On Claude Julien's last day, they led the league in 5v5 GF% at 62.69%. While their 5th-ranked 5v5 PDO helped, they also led the league in 5v5 xGF% and were 2nd in 5v5 CF%, two of the best predictive measures available, before cratering under Ducharme.

Despite the poor finish this year, the Habs still managed to finish 11th in 5v5 xG%, after finishing 3rd last year and 6th the year prior. With a capable HC, this roster is easily able to outchance their opponents.

The ongoing issues have been finishing and goaltending. Goaltending is random as hell, but the Habs really only need it to be average if the finishing woes are patched, and I believe I have assembled the most average tandem possible here.

While Weber is an elite shooting blueliner, it doesn't translate into team finishing because defenseman-driven offense drives finishing results downwards anyway. Tarasenko carries a lot of risk, but as long as he can stay on the ice and his shot's intact, he can give the Habs a pretty imposing offensive middle-six alongside the youngsters on the (nominal) third line.

As for why the Blues and Sens agree to those deals, it's banking on the hype around the Habs after making the finals. The captain and #2 defenseman off of a finals team might well be the best immediate help St.Louis can get for Senko, and the Sens are definitely dumb enough to believe Price is the missing piece to get them to contention, especially with no real cost.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$2,000,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
7$6,000,000
3$5,000,000
1$1,500,000
2$1,250,000
3$4,000,000
Trades
1.
2.
MTL
    Multiple beans, with varying degrees of mystical power.
    Buyouts
    DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
    2021
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the TBL
    Logo of the CHI
    Logo of the WSH
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the STL
    Logo of the VGK
    Logo of the PHI
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    2022
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    2023
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
    23$81,500,000$62,927,143$597,561$1,557,500$18,572,857

    Roster

    Left WingCentreRight Wing
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $2,125,000$2,125,000
    RW, LW
    UFA - 3
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $6,000,000$6,000,000
    C
    UFA - 6
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $6,500,000$6,500,000
    RW, LW
    M-NTC, NMC
    UFA - 6
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $5,000,000$5,000,000
    LW, RW
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $2,000,000$2,000,000
    C
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the St. Louis Blues
    $3,750,000$3,750,000
    RW
    NTC
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $5,500,000$5,500,000
    LW, RW
    M-NTC
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$537,500$538K)
    C
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $880,833$880,833 (Performance Bonus$300,000$300K)
    LW, RW
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $3,400,000$3,400,000
    LW, RW
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $750,000$750,000
    C
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $5,500,000$5,500,000
    RW, LW
    M-NTC
    UFA - 6
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $850,833$850,833
    C, LW
    RFA - 4
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $838,333$838,333 (Performance Bonus$82,500$82K)
    C
    UFA - 2
    Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $1,750,000$1,750,000
    LD/RD
    M-NTC
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $2,343,750$2,343,750
    RD
    M-NTC, NMC
    UFA - 4
    $4,000,000$4,000,000
    G
    UFA - 3
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $925,000$925,000
    LD/RD
    UFA - 1
    $1,250,000$1,250,000
    RD
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $2,875,000$2,875,000
    G
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$637,500$638K)
    LD
    RFA - 1
    $1,500,000$1,500,000
    LD/RD
    UFA
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $875,000$875,000
    LD/RD
    M-NTC
    UFA - 3

    Embed Code

    • To display this team on another website or blog, add this iFrame to the appropriate page
    • Customize the height attribute in the iFrame code below to fit your website appropriately. Minimum recommended: 400px.

    Text-Embed

    Click to Highlight
    Jul. 8, 2021 at 10:10 p.m.
    #1
    Not enough characte
    Avatar of the user
    Joined: May 2020
    Posts: 122
    Likes: 19
    That’s a big overpay for both Danault and Tatar. Danault at $5 mil per (and that’s still slightly overpriced) and Tatar at $3 mil per, then you don’t have to sign Mrazek and trade Price (who was mostly why the Habs made it to the finals)
    Jul. 8, 2021 at 10:28 p.m.
    #2
    Thread Starter
    I put math in hockey
    Avatar of the user
    Joined: Jun. 2018
    Posts: 624
    Likes: 167
    Quoting: kams
    That’s a big overpay for both Danault and Tatar. Danault at $5 mil per (and that’s still slightly overpriced) and Tatar at $3 mil per, then you don’t have to sign Mrazek and trade Price (who was mostly why the Habs made it to the finals)


    I actually had them both slightly under Evolving-hockey's contract projections, they were both leaned upon as top-line players for most of last year and Danault's shutdown ability was a huge part of them making it to the finals, especially in the Vegas series.

    Keeping Price is still totally doable, moving Anderson and one of Edmundson/Byron and replacing them with cheaper alternatives can still provide easily enough cap space, but Price's subpar regular seasons have been a major issue for the Habs for a while now. Over the last 3 seasons, Carey Price's -14.69 GSAx ranks 31st among the 46 goalies that have faced at least 3000 unblocked shots in that timeframe, and those goaltending issues are a big chunk of why the Habs missed the playoffs in 18-19, and came close each of the past two years. (For comparison, Allen ranks 24th with -5.41, and Mrazek actually ranks 4th with 18.46, though he barely makes the cutoff and the timeframe contains a career year for him)

    Price's hot run in the postseason was a huge part of getting them to the finals, but any goalie can get hot for a playoff run, like the time Jaroslav Halak carried the Habs all the way to the conference finals. Mrazek is perfectly capable of being the best goalie in the world for a month, and this probably improves the regular season netminding and frees up a whack of cap space.

    It does bear repeating, though, that it is absolutely possible to make all the skater moves and keep Price, it's probably also easier given his NMC. I just felt this made the team better and the ACGM simpler, since I can just assume the Sens are dumb and I don't have to figure out what Josh Anderson's value is.
    Jul. 8, 2021 at 10:32 p.m.
    #3
    Avatar of the user
    Joined: Jun. 2017
    Posts: 1,834
    Likes: 551
    Unless there was some mystery ailment that kept him out of the last three rounds of the playoffs, Tatar won't be back even if the Habs wanted to keep him. Given that he's 31, that's probably not terrible news for the Habs.

    Danault has upped his value in the playoffs, but I doubt he gets a $42M package. I'd wager it's closer to the $30M (6x$5M) he was offered at the beginning of the season. There will be other suitors, but the market for a checking centre is fairly well established in the $3M to $5M range.

    Unless you were getting a third year out of KK, that's too much for a bridge. Given his performance, he'll be much closer to $2M, maybe even a shade under.

    I won't comment on the rest as I don't think the Blues need Weber and I know Price would never accept a trade to Ottawa. I suspect both will have some weird surgery on the eve of training camp, allowing the Habs to eclipse the salary cap by oh, hmmmm, $18M or so.
    Jul. 8, 2021 at 10:52 p.m.
    #4
    Thread Starter
    I put math in hockey
    Avatar of the user
    Joined: Jun. 2018
    Posts: 624
    Likes: 167
    Quoting: HabsRafiki
    Unless there was some mystery ailment that kept him out of the last three rounds of the playoffs, Tatar won't be back even if the Habs wanted to keep him. Given that he's 31, that's probably not terrible news for the Habs.

    Danault has upped his value in the playoffs, but I doubt he gets a $42M package. I'd wager it's closer to the $30M (6x$5M) he was offered at the beginning of the season. There will be other suitors, but the market for a checking centre is fairly well established in the $3M to $5M range.

    Unless you were getting a third year out of KK, that's too much for a bridge. Given his performance, he'll be much closer to $2M, maybe even a shade under.

    I won't comment on the rest as I don't think the Blues need Weber and I know Price would never accept a trade to Ottawa. I suspect both will have some weird surgery on the eve of training camp, allowing the Habs to eclipse the salary cap by oh, hmmmm, $18M or so.


    I feel like Tatar would be willing to come back if the Habs promised Ducharme wouldn't be making lineup decisions anymore. Given that the team was substantially worse by nearly every metric after Ducharme took over, that seems like a good idea anyway.

    Danault's the top UFA centre in the league this year, which'll drive up his value a good chunk. As I said, I actually have him under the evolving-hockey projection, and the Younggrens have never been accused of overvaluing being the 1C on a Finals team.

    I just gave KK the EH projection under the premise that on a deal that small the specifics don't matter much. Your mileage may vary.

    As for the Blues getting Weber, I dunno how much immediate help they can get for Tarasenko given his health. Weber might actually be the (perceived) best player available in a Tarasenko deal, and it makes the money work nicely. If nothing else, given that the Oilers reportedly want to pay real assets for Duncan Keith, I feel confident that the Habs could shed Weber's salary and potentially acquire Tarasenko for futures.

    As for Price, maybe. The Habs can always functionally end his career if he doesn't waive by refusing to play him, so they've got a whack of leverage to work with there. Even if they can't, moving either Anderson or Drouin and Edmundson or Byron can always free up the cap space anyway, so it's still feasible to do this if Price sticks around.
    HabsRafiki liked this.
    Jul. 8, 2021 at 11:01 p.m.
    #5
    Avatar of the user
    Joined: Jun. 2017
    Posts: 1,834
    Likes: 551
    Quoting: The_Ultimate_Pielord
    I feel like Tatar would be willing to come back if the Habs promised Ducharme wouldn't be making lineup decisions anymore. Given that the team was substantially worse by nearly every metric after Ducharme took over, that seems like a good idea anyway.


    You have to know that Ducharme is coming back, right? The metrics were terrible in large part because of the Covid-compressed schedule that had the Habs play 25 games in 42 nights (or something like that). The playoff "miracle" has made him the coach of the future and I guess Tatar a player of the past.
    Jul. 8, 2021 at 11:27 p.m.
    #6
    Thread Starter
    I put math in hockey
    Avatar of the user
    Joined: Jun. 2018
    Posts: 624
    Likes: 167
    Quoting: HabsRafiki
    You have to know that Ducharme is coming back, right? The metrics were terrible in large part because of the Covid-compressed schedule that had the Habs play 25 games in 42 nights (or something like that). The playoff "miracle" has made him the coach of the future and I guess Tatar a player of the past.


    I mean the prior on Ducharme should have been that he was probably the worst head coach in the NHL, right? He wasn't a particularly well-regarded assistant, he'd never been an NHL head coach before, and was selected for being the best french-speaking assistant on the Habs staff instead of a competitive hiring process. The Habs goal differential didn't really rebound in the playoffs after the schedule became more typical, and that was with dramatic improvement from Price to boot. I dunno what's on his resume that indicates he's a capable NHL head coach, beyond "correctly recognized Philipp Danault is good at defending" and "happened to be head coach while Carey Price had a very well-timed run of looking like a star again".
    HabsRafiki liked this.
     
    Reply
    To create a post please Login or Register
    Question:
    Options:
    Add Option
    Submit Poll