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Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 8, 2018 at 11:58 a.m.
Thread: Blues winning the cup next year
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>A_K</b></div><div>Here's the CBA language:
"Such Conditioning Loan shall not extend for more than fourteen (14) consecutive days. The Commissioner may take whatever steps he deems necessary to investigate the circumstances under which a Player is Loaned on a Conditioning Loan."

They didn't rush him back after the first surgery and that recovery took 5-6 months. He had the surgery back in November - I think if everything goes well he's going to be cleared to be a full participant in preseason. So, even if the league is dumb enough to believe that he needs a conditioning stint to start the season, it would last 2 weeks. I guess there's no point to speculate at this point because so much is unknown, but most people think if he can play at all, he'll be a top6 guy, and with the chemistry between Schwartz and Schenn, he's going to play on the other top line if he stays at LW. I don't think anyone is expecting 80 pts and MVP, people are just putting him on that top line to balance out the rest of the lineup.</div></div>

Time will tell. I don't want to be right. I just think it's foolish to count on him in a top-6 role and risk his career playing top line minutes until he's proven he can still hang. And it's not as if he's going to get paid as a first line player. He's almost certainly going to get some sort of bridge deal, so it won't sting so bad if he's sitting a lot. Truthfully, I think Kyrou and Thomas both make the team, and Fabbri spells the two of them as the extra guy, and they see where chemistry and conditioning will take them.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 8, 2018 at 11:32 a.m.
Thread: Blues winning the cup next year
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>A_K</b></div><div>All of your points are valid, except you keep saying this about Fabbri - this ain't baseball, man. You can't send just send the guy down to find his game. Any time in San Antonio would be on a conditioning stint, which he won't need because he'll be a full participant in training camp and preseason... Otherwise we'd have to send him through waivers to the minors and I'm pretty sure 30 teams would submit claims (low risk, high reward).</div></div>

You're right, they can't just "send him down". But they absolutely can choose to have a player who missed an entire bloody season start the year on a conditioning assignment in the minors, and when that concludes, they absolutely can give him sheltered minutes as an extra forward. Which is exactly how I see the Blues using him for the better part of this year, assuming they keep him. What they won't do is throw him to the wolves by playing him first line minutes right out the gate. It would risk a career-ending re-injury, it isn't necessary, it most likely wouldn't be effective anyway, and it boggles the mind how many people are assuming otherwise.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 8, 2018 at 11:22 a.m.
Thread: Blues winning the cup next year
--Ottowa trade is fair value, though I'd prefer to keep Kyrou (and, reportedly, so would DA). Ottowa will get better offers for Hoffman than that.
--No Thomas? I think he's almost a lock to make the team.
--Gunnarsson likely won't be back from IR until Christmas; you can't move him before then.
--Last thing we need is another Left shooting LHD.
--For the millionth time: IF Fabbri makes the club after sitting out the better part of two seasons, there is no way he gets penciled into the top line--and even if his conditioning is up to par, his timing, chemistry and vision will take months to recoup. It is far more likely he starts the season in San Antonio, and sees spot duty in the middle six after Christmas.
--AND if I'm right, we need a LW as bad as we need a RW. Yes, we do "have a ton of LWs". Sadly, Schwartz is the only one in the organization who belongs in the top 6.
--Kudos for keeping Steen and Berglund on the 3rd line where they belong.
--That 4th line is awful. Thorburn can be effective enough, but Barbashev as 4th line center is just bad. He either makes the team as a middle six center, or as a utility extra forward. I see him being dealt. Bringing back Brodziak should be priority #2, behind acquiring a top center, IMO.
--Tavares and Tarasenko should be paired, just as Schenn and Schwartz are a pairing that needs to stick. I think Hoffman will compliment the Schenn line nicely.
--Kostin is an interesting option at 4th line RW. He's big, he can hit, he can fight, and he has the skill to move up the lineup in a pinch. But I suspect his defensive game needs a lot more work. I see him being dealt, or starting the season in San Antonio.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 7, 2018 at 12:41 p.m.
Thread: Adding Tavares, Hoffman, Draisatl, Roussel, Mayfield
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BluesGetTheCup</b></div><div>Hoffman deal won't go through on Sens side. Fabbri is a huge ?, Allen is inconsistent and Schmaltz is kind of past being a trade chip. They'd need Tage or Kostin in there.</div></div>
You may be right. But given the Sens goalie situation, I bet they value Allen more than the average fan just parsing his stats. Schmaltz's inexperience relative to his age is a downer on his value, but he's always been a legit top prospect--he's just buried on a deep team. He's also a R shooting RHD, which both teams covet and have in short supply. Fabbri is all upside, and will be getting a very reasonable contract. He could be the best player on either side of this trade.
And the late first is nothing to sniff at. If Thompson or Kostin were demanded, I'd consider swapping them out for a piece. But I don't think the Sens get a better offer from anybody.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 7, 2018 at 12:28 p.m.
Thread: Adding Tavares, Hoffman, Draisatl, Roussel, Mayfield
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>A_K</b></div><div>I disagree with you about Mayfield being harder to play against than Parayko. Parayko isn't nearly as physical, but he is way more effective. Instead of looking at hits or clearing the crease, I think the better indicators of effective defense are xGF% and just watching games to see how positionally sound a player is. It's better to prevent entries and disrupt plays than it is to sit back and cross-check guys parked in front of the goalie.

at even strength:
Parayko - 54% xGF%
Mayfield - 48% xGF%

It's a stat that shows which team is expected to score more goals when the player is on the ice. To me, it's harder to play against a guy that outscores the opposition. Just because Mayfield might play more aggressively doesn't mean it's more effective. The defense you put together in this mock would get destroyed night in and night out. Asking Mayfield and Bouwmeester to play top 4 minutes would be a disaster IMO.</div></div>
I respect your opinion, but you didn't convince me.
First, there's no fair comparison to make between Parayko and Mayfield, simply because of who they play for. Had they swapped teams mid season perhaps we'd have a basis of comparison for those numbers. Mayfield's numbers would be much better playing for StL. In any event, I never claimed that Mayfield was a better player than Parayko. Clearly, he is not. I only claimed that the Blues would be harder to play against. Edmundson's offense is underrated, and Dunn's emergence makes Parayko superfluous. A physical element is needed on that second pairing, and Parayko wasn't providing it. Incidentally, he wasn't shooting the puck, either. The transition game is where losing Parayko would be most painful. But gaining a player of Draisatl's caliber more than compensates for that, I'm betting.

And as for J-Bo, his play last year was sub-par, obviously. But he is expected to fully recover from surgery. A healthy Bouwmeester is a minute munching top pairing defenseman on any team.

It's fine to prefer to hang on to Parayko. Most fans do--there's not much about him not to like. But you have to give to get, and some think DA is flirting with the idea of trading him for help. Draisatl is the only help I trade him for. We do that, we need a right-shooting RD to replace him. If it's not Mayfield (who isn't rumored to be available), it needs to be somebody like him, I think.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 7, 2018 at 9:12 a.m.
Thread: Adding Tavares, Hoffman, Draisatl, Roussel, Mayfield
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>yanp007</b></div><div>Great offense!! but defense and goalie.... many many ?????</div></div>
I think that will be the consensus opinion of this roster. But this team, as constructed here, will be harder to play against with Mayfield instead of Parayko. And the last decade has proven that StL doesn't need world class goalies to win, as long as the forwards are backchecking and providing some goal support. Matching those lines will give opponents fits.
Bouwmeester should be set for a bounce back year. Petro is one of the smartest defenders in the game. Edmundson is a reliable old school player with all the tools (and I'd argue our second best defenseman). Mayfield is the crease clearer Parayko was reluctant to become. Dunn's offensive potential continues to grow, expect him to pace Pietrangelo's offense with far less icetime. And Bortuzzo is as sound positionally as anybody. Mikkola is a question mark, but he looked strong in camp last year, and by all accounts is ready to break out. Gunnarsson should be back and ready to contribute by December regardless. So, all things considered, I've zero worries for the StL defense--(provided they land a guy like Mayfield, should they deal Parayko for an upgrade on offense, and Draisatl is the only guy I do that for).

No, I'm not concerned playing Draisatl at RW. I think he and Schenn think the game similarly, and will swap positions routinely. Schwartz has amazing chemistry with Schenn, so he should click with Draisatl too.

Tavares feeding Tarasenko and Hoffman will be just sick.

Steen providing defensive support to Thomas and Kyrou will open up their game and let them be more creative than rookies might otherwise be.

Brodziak was a workhorse last year. Bringing him back is a no brainer. Adding Roussel to his line gives him a speedy mucker with size who won't get pushed around, and Thompson gives him.a talented winger with a quick shot and a long reach.

This is really the lineup I'm hoping to see. Not holding my breath, though.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 4, 2018 at 6:48 p.m.
Thread: Draisaitl for Tarasenko
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AndrewColvin91</b></div><div>parayko wouldnt be enough for drai.</div></div>

Perhaps not. But I like the looks of this team a lot better with Draisatl AND Tarasenko.
I would trade Parayko+ for Draisatl and play him at RW on a line with Schenn and Schwartz, and call it the Blitzkrieg line.
Acquiring Draisatl would make StL a much more attractive destination for Tavares, too.
Or, if we insist on playing Draisatl at C next to Tarasenko, we could also acquire a Hoffman or Pacioretty to play LW, allowing Steen to stay on the 3rd line alongside Thomas and one of Thompson or Kyrou. Or, perhaps Fabbri is closer than I expect, and against all odds he's ready to play top-6 minutes again. In that case, no LW upgrades are needed, and the Blues can look to invest that money on D or in goal.
Bring back Brodziak and hire a couple fast goons to round out the 4th line, and trade for a right shooting, crease-clearing RD (like Mayfield), and we'd have a very hard team to play against.
If, instead, we go with the logic that we only need one or two new players, and we bring back the same non-performing clock punchers who threw in the towel last year, making a big trade for a top end talent like Draisatl, or signing a big name free agent like Tavares, isn't going to matter. Those guys can't do it all on their own.
We need change. Not for the sake of change alone, but to change the culture.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 4, 2018 at 2:18 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 2, 2018 at 4:26 p.m.
Thread: Resign Stastny and trade for a top 6 wing. Is this a contender?
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eli</b></div><div>Well, every Blues fan on this board has spent the last year telling the Caps they would never trade their three best prospects and a high first pick for Nick Backstrom, so I'm certainly not going to suggest that here...

...and the whole board has made it clear that Brooks "leading playoff defensemen in hits, plus/minus, and SCF GWG" Orpik has negative trade value, so....

...yeah. The Blues are probably just destined to spend another year rebuilding, because no appropriate trade partners exist who have any legitimate #1 centers who have been in the top 20 centers in points for the last six straight years, or any defensemen with "testosterone" to get Saint Louis out of its funk. Sorry to hear it, guys. Best of luck.</div></div>

Nonsense.
-If Tavares leaves NYI, he'll be a Blue.
-Blues have pieces to trade for one of Draisatl, Hoffman, RoR, or RNH. Any of those players would improve the Blues top 6.
-With players like Roussel, Grabner, Maroon, and Reaves on the market, the Blues could land one or more of those guys and dramatically improve the bottom 6.
-I absolutely expect a trade on defense (I'm personally hoping the Blues acquire Mayfield or Nurse).
-If Allen has a bounce back year, Blues can compete with the lame offense they already have. This is unlikely. But--some modest acquisitions like what the OP described, paired with some strategic addition by subtraction and a couple veteran leaders with some cajones could work wonders, regardless of the goaltending.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 2, 2018 at 11:55 a.m.
Thread: Blues
I'm boring myself making the same comment over and over, but everybody seems to be making the same assumption and it's driving me crazy.

Why would you, Blues' brass, or anyone, believe that Robby Fabbri is going to be ready to step in and play first line minutes? How much hockey has he actually played in the last two years?

Assuming his knees are fully recovered and his skating is at least 70% of what it was pre-injury, perhaps he's able to play. But you expect him noy to have lost a step? For his timing to be up to speed? For his vision and playmaking to not be rusty? His shot to be accurate? Why would we think this?

I like the kid, and there is no questioning his talent. I'm rooting for him to work his way back into the lineup and surprise us all. I would prefer to be 100% wrong in this post, and he comes back hungry enough to lead us to Lord Stanley's Cup. But wishful thinking aside, let's plan for the worst and hope for the best.

I don't think Fabbri starts the season in StL, and I don't see him playing 1st line minutes this year. I don't think the Blues are expecting that, either.

Which is why I hope, and expect, a trade for a top 6 with the flexibility to play C and LW. A Hoffman, or a Draisatl. And a move like that won't be cheap.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 1, 2018 at 5:43 p.m.
Thread: Small but Effective Changes
I like it! But I have to nitpick a couple things.
-No Edmundson. Fixing that should be a priority.
-Bouwmeester will be back before Gunnarsson.
-Mikkola makes the team before Walman (I'm betting).
-Sanford probably starts the year in San Antonio--along with Fabbri (and kudos for not penciling him in on your starting roster, because he won't be ready).
-I'm ok with bringing Barbashev back as a utility forward, but that 4th line is just awful. We need Brodziak, and would really benefit from adding a tough veteran or two (I'm pushing to add Roussel AND Grabner).
-Even with taking on Ryan's contract, I think Hoffman commands a 1st in that deal. It's not like we're not sending money back in that deal with Berglund and Sobotka. And I suspect they would see more value in Walman than in Kostin, and might ask (but shouldn't get) both. I think it's 50/50 they get a better offer than that.
BUT--like where you're head is at.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 1, 2018 at 12:53 p.m.
Thread: ROR and Tavares
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>millsman5643</b></div><div>You really think Thomas is more ready than kyrou? Kyrou had helluva season and had his final year in the OHL. Kyrou to me seems more ready. But Thomas will have to go AHL or OHL which would be werid since he is probably too good for it. Idk I think only both make it if we are down a top 6 forward, there wont be space. Right Fabbri might not be ready, but preseason should help a lot and being on the third line will help him alot. Right if Fabbri is not ready in opening day then I think thomas and kyrou make it. if Fabbri is ready and we are lacking a top 6 forward than I see both making it.

Either way this is lacking a top 6 forward, because Steen should not be on first line. But realistically this may hapoen knkwing Armstrong. We defiently need two top 6 forwards added and you done that, to put us ahead than we were last year, but I think another top 6 forward will put us in really great position and really solid if we add 3 top 6 forwards this offseason. Other than that this looks great and will probably work.</div></div>

I think both Thomas and Kyrou are "ready". Thomas moreso because he is more physically mature for his age than Kyrou; Kyrou perhaps moreso because RW is "easier" than a C assignment for a rookie. It is true the roster is crowded, but as I've said elsewhere, I'm hoping for some addition by subtraction.
And for the record, as I've also said elsewhere, I don't think it's realistic that all of this happens. I just want to see the Blues compete, and I think this is what it will take.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 1, 2018 at 12:46 p.m.
Thread: Blues 18-19
--Trading off rights to Edmundson? He's so under-rated, even among Blues fans. The Blues defensemen have precisely three tesicles between them if Eddie departs. He's the last guy I'd let go.
--Regardless, Sobotka, Eddie's rights, and two firsts aren't enough for Kessel, who isn't worth what he will command in trade.
--Schmaltz may be in the NHL in18/19, but I've a feeling it wont be on the Blues.
--I really don't want Kessel on my favorite team. I really don't want to explain why again. I don't care if he 's a lock for 100 points, I don't want to root for a team he plays on. It doesn't have to be rational.
--Blais has great depth value for the Blues, but next to zero trade value. Blais and a 2nd won't get you Del Zotto's jockstrap.
--Kovalchuck won't sign with the Blues, but even if he would, why would you want to pay him $6M a year? Do you think his production will warrant that sort of pay? That's quite a gamble.
--That fourth line is gross. Cringe-worthy.

Sorry man, not trying to be hyper-critical, but I just don't like it.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 1, 2018 at 12:21 p.m.
Thread: Tavares, O'Reilly, Draisatl, Mayfield
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Blues4Cup</b></div><div>No from Blues.

-All 6 players in your top 6 are LHS.
-If signing Tavares, do we really need to trade for Draisaitl?
-I'd prefer signing Kovalchuk over spending assets on Mike Hoffman.</div></div>
--Most NHL players shoot left. It's unfortunate, but I think it really only makes a difference on special teams. It won't for long. Kyrou and Thomas both shoot right. As does Thompson, Sundqvist, Poganski, and Musil. As those players mature, that problem will fix itself. In the meantime, preferences for lefties or righties shouldn't prevent the team from icing the most skilled roster possible.

--Yes, we absolutely do need both Tavares and Draisatl. Have you not been watching the Stanley Cup playoffs? Do you honestly think adding just one player of that caliber is sufficient to compete with these playoff teams? I don't. And I don't think Blues management does, either. Frankly, I think we need at least three, and preferably five new forwards--two new top 6, two new 4th liners, the return of Brodziak, Soshnikov and Blais for depth, and lots of addition by subtraction.

--I would take a chance on Kovalchuk, too--but my expectations would be tempered, I wouldn't pay him what he will demand, and even if I would, he's shown no interest in leaving the East. He won't be a Blue.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 1, 2018 at 2:16 a.m.
Thread: ROR and Tavares
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>millsman5643</b></div><div>Mikko was only signed 2 years btw.

Schenn and ROR switch? It would fit better, but again ROR is better at center probably. But Schenn not RW, he LW or center.

Thomas and Kyrou are not both making opening roster.
I think steen should be on third, and take thomas or kyrou out, perferby thomas out. And keep fabbri there on third and kyrou and steen. We will need another trade or FA sign for top 6 forward. Other then that, looks good.</div></div>

-Schenn played RW mostly for Philly, and in StL he has only played C or RW. CapFriendly may have him listed as C/LW, but they're wrong.
-I think you're wrong that Thomas and Kyrou don't both make the opening roster. They outplayed several veterans in camp last year, and there's really no one ahead of them on the depth chart that stand much of a chance to beat them out of a spot. Barring injury, I see them both on the team ahead of guys like Fabbri or Sanford--both of whom are recovering from injuries.
-Fabbri hasn't played more than 2 minutes in the last two years. I've no doubt he'll return, but he shouldn't be penciled into the lineup until he's got his game back--which will almost certainly be in San Antonio.
-I don't think Buffalo parts with both RoR and Bogosian.
-They will definitely ask for Parayko, but we shouldn't let CP55 go for anyone not named Draisatl.
-Barring injury and special teams, 3rd line LW is the *only* place Steen should be playing. He certainly shouldn't be playing with Tarasenko and Tavares.
-Don't see Tavares signing for less than $11Mx7. My guess is he'll sign for $80M.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 31, 2018 at 9:24 p.m.
Thread: Tavares, O'Reilly, Draisatl, Mayfield
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Smokingun71</b></div><div>There is no way the Oilers retain salary on a Draisaitl trade. Yes I agree to get a player like Draisaitl you will have to overpay but I don’t think this trade would get it done. They would need 3 pieces to get it done. A top defensemen, a young top centre prospect and a 1st. I would bet the asking would be Parayko, Thomas and a first.</div></div>

Thompson is one of the Blues top three center prospects, and Barbashev was playing on the Blues' top line (out of necessity, to be sure) in the 2017 playoffs. The original offer isn't very far off from your counter. But Thomas and Kyrou are untouchable, (per Doug Armstrong) , not because they are so much better (though they are), but because their particular attributes are exactly what the Blues need. Thompson has just as much upside, but he's more expendable to the Blues. If Thompson's tepid rookie season has spoiled his trade value, Kostin might be a reasonable alternative--though the Blues are really high on him, too. I'm betting that, for all our misgivings, Edmonton (rightly) values Parayko more than fans of either team might. AND, if Fabbri is healthy to start the season, even if his game is rusty, he'll more than compensate for the retained salary. When he's back up to speed, he'll be in your top 6 somewhere.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 31, 2018 at 9:17 p.m.
Thread: Tavares, O'Reilly, Draisatl, Mayfield
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AndrewColvin91</b></div><div>do we really need draisatl and o'reilly?</div></div>

No, we don't. And you might note I said previously that I don't think it's realistic that all of that happens. The point is that it is possible to pull all that off, assuming we had willing partners.
I DO think we need to add two players to our top six. Draisatl is the only player I would trade Parayko for. Buffalo may want more for O'Reilly, but they're not likely to get much more than what I've offered--though I wasn't aware that it's primarily RHD they're looking for, so the Bouwmeester idea (which I was kinda proud of) likely won't work, as has been noted. I'd offer Steen in that deal instead, but I don't think that gets much more traction--and Steen has a NMC. So, if RoR is out, I move Schenn back into the #2C role, and move everyone on RW up a line.