I don't think this team needs a lot of changes from its current design. We have a number of depth NHL defensemen in the wings (Timmins, and Schenn; Holl likely gone if he gets a raise, Kral and Mete in the AHL) and some cost-controlled complementary top 9 winger options (Jarnkrok and Knies, while Bunting, Kerfoot, Acciari are options to resign).
O'Reilly can get more on the market but he likely stays a Leaf at somewhat of a discount. If it came down to it, I would prioritize O'Reilly first and make other choices later. There are replacement options on the UFA market for some depth players, but noone who can replace O'Reilly's poise and leadership.
Bunting's AAV would depend on his performance through the rest of the playoffs. His performance in 2023 was a ~40pt pace, not as good as last year or what we would have expected to have to pay coming into this season. A 40pt player should not get more than the 3M bracket. He struggled away from the top 6 and does not play center, which lowers his value to the team (unlike Hyman, whose role Bunting was the replacement for).
Kerfoot has been a great utility player for years. He is not suited to a top 6 role, but is not a bad option to take shifts there when there are injuries. He can be played in all situations to some effect. I would not prefer him at 3.5M, but I recognize he gets a lot of trust from Keefe. Returning as a third-line option below $3M would be ideal.
Kampf has been a steady presence in the bottom 6 for a couple of years. He is ideally a fourth-line center on a cup contender, but he plays about 15min a night, which is appropriate going forward given his utility on the PK. I think paying him in the $2M range is workable for both parties.
Cookie has been awesome. He can score goals in the paint, hits like a truck, lays it on the line, great forechecker, and can play the middle. I like him at $2M or less as a role player with some goal-scoring ability, and think Dubas should try to keep him, he fills a niche this team needs in a bottom 6 F. I've been a fan of his since his Boston days and I think Dubas tried to acquire him on the UFA market a few years ago. Keeping O'Reilly might also help towards keeping Acciari.
ZAR could return close to league minimum. He was on a PTO last season and found a regular lineup slot in Toronto. If he leaves, it's not the end of the world but it seems likely he stays as a solid defensive forward.
For defense, we can revisit the blueline after this season. Rielly has shown his worth yet again in the playoffs, and Rielly-Schenn is the pairing we dreamt of over a decade ago. They work great together, remind me of Q.Hughes and Schenn working in Vancouver. Schenn is a homer and would just be happy to play here I think, but he's worth more than $1M to this team easily. Brodie and Gio have shown their age a bit. I think next season may be Gio's last, and Brodie we will see if he is a return option, but it is likely not at $5M. I would keep my eye on Dubas trading a forward prospect for a prime-age steady defenseman just as he has done previously (Muzzin, McCabe).
I think Murray gets traded (cap dump, team doesn't matter). If not, then with my roster I would have to forgo signing Bunting probably, and run Knies in the top 6, with Jarnkrok/Kerfoot rotating, unless Robertson has a breakthrough. It's not ideal, but I think it's more important than sacrificing O'Reilly. Possibly Bunting could be had with cuts to Kerfoot and Acciari, but that's pennies at this point. Samsonov in last year's goalie market would have gotten much more but last year's goalie market was crazy overvalued. He is conservatively a strong tandem 1A goalie with a mixed record as a number 1. In the ballpark of 2.5-3.5M is what I would expect the likes of him and Swayman to get (comparable to Georgiev, less so Husso). They are clearly a cut below Oettinger and their value should reflect that. Joe Woll has been a great relief option. I'm not too concerned about finding a backup for Samsonov, I think Woll has good potential and if he flops we can find someone on the waiver wire or maybe another AHL option hits.
* Lineups are current playoff lines as per Daily Faceoff
McDavid, Connor
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