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Blues off-season prediction, EDM, OTT, with explanation

Created by: bjprice
Team: 2018-19 St. Louis Blues
Initial Creation Date: May 27, 2018
Published: May 27, 2018
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
STL is not in a rebuilding phase. STL has entirely too many core skaters in matured years. STL will not make a futures based trade, but also, based on developing young talent and the real need to fill a full AHL roster, STL will not just give it away for a short term contract (Kessel).

Edmonton desperately needs a true puck moving RHD, PP1 RHD - preferably one who is cost controlled and young. Edmonton will approach STL about Parayko, and a downgrade for Larsson + the 10 OA is fair value wise. STL can afford the downgrade due to Pietrangelo, and Larsson's defensive playstyle will allow Dunn to act as the puck mover for that pairing. Edmundson has shown he is effective in top pairing minutes, and a great stay-at-home counter to Pietrangelo on his right.

Due to this, Edmundson will want a 1 year bridge, as the compensation for a top pairing guy goes up, and knowing he will fill that role will push his next contract up by 1.5 mil AAV or more, along with securing much more term.

STL then takes the 10 OA and moves it to OTT with Fabbri for the RFA rights to Mark Stone. OTT is not going to resign him for his value, period. I guarantee that Stone is gone, whether to my team or not. It’s the perfect storm - cheap team, expensive player, rebuild. I am sorry OTT fans I wish your owner wasn't a gigantic cheap POS, but he has shown time and time again that he is. He has literally actively stated they are rebuilding, and the 10 OA plus Fabbri is more than most teams will offer for an elite RW who needs a giant contract. OTT needs a rebuild, what better way than 10 OA and Fabs, who will be cheap AF for the next 3 years. As stated below, RFA rights to Jaskin likely included.

All teams in these situations win. STL improves, EDM improves, and OTT saves 7.5 million dollars over 5 years while getting a very high draft pick and risky high return prospect who will not demand a high value contract for a number of years.

STL will do a few more small things - LHD depth, find a goalie who will take a 1 year deal (Husso will not be a backup next year - much better for him to take lionshare of AHL starts next season, then back-up/start following season, possibly move Berglund due to emergence of Thomas - although Berglund is a tremendous value for his contract and provides substantial injury depth.

I can see Jaskin RFA rights being included in either EDM or OTT deal as a sweetener. He has the tools and is a good value add.

If nothing else, I guarantee Mark Stone is auctioned on the draft floor. He will go to the highest bidding contender who can afford the gigantic raise he’s about to receive. While STL is not alone, they meet all criteria and will be among the highest bidders.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$2,900,000
2$1,200,000
5$7,500,000
Trades
1.
STL
  1. Larsson, Adam
  2. 2018 1st round pick (EDM)
2.
STL
    RFA rights to Mark Stone
    OTT
    1. 2018 1st round pick (EDM)
    Additional Details:
    RFA rights to Robby Fabbri
    DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
    2018
    Logo of the WPG
    Logo of the STL
    Logo of the STL
    Logo of the STL
    Logo of the STL
    Logo of the STL
    Logo of the STL
    2019
    Logo of the STL
    Logo of the STL
    Logo of the STL
    Logo of the STL
    Logo of the STL
    Logo of the STL
    2020
    Logo of the STL
    Logo of the STL
    Logo of the STL
    Logo of the STL
    Logo of the WPG
    Logo of the STL
    Logo of the STL
    Logo of the STL
    ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
    26$75,000,000$68,424,320$150,988$710,000$6,575,680
    Left WingCentreRight Wing
    $5,350,000$5,350,000
    LW
    UFA - 3
    $5,125,000$5,125,000
    C, LW
    UFA - 2
    $7,500,000$7,500,000
    RW
    UFA - 1
    $3,500,000$3,500,000
    LW, C
    UFA - 2
    $894,166$894,166
    C, RW
    UFA - 3
    $3,750,000$3,750,000
    RW
    UFA - 5
    $5,750,000$5,750,000
    LW, RW, C
    NTC
    UFA - 3
    $741,667$741,667
    LW, RW
    UFA - 1
    $3,850,000$3,850,000
    C, LW
    M-NTC
    UFA - 4
    $1,200,000$1,200,000
    RW, C
    UFA - 1
    $900,000$900,000
    RW, LW
    UFA - 1
    $875,000$875,000 (Performance Bonus$50,000$50K)
    LW, RW
    UFA - 1
    $842,500$842,500 (Performance Bonus$82,500$82K)
    C
    UFA - 1
    $925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$212,500$212K)
    C
    UFA - 2
    $925,000$925,000
    LW
    UFA - 3
    $758,333$758,333 (Performance Bonus$182,500$182K)
    RW
    UFA - 3
    Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
    $2,900,000$2,900,000
    LD/RD
    UFA - 1
    $6,500,000$6,500,000
    RD
    NTC
    UFA - 2
    $4,350,000$4,350,000
    G
    UFA - 3
    $722,500$722,500 (Performance Bonus$182,500$182K)
    LD/RD
    UFA - 2
    $4,166,666$4,166,666
    RD
    UFA - 3
    $847,500$847,500
    G
    UFA - 1
    $2,900,000$2,900,000
    LD
    UFA - 1
    $1,150,000$1,150,000
    RD
    UFA - 1
    $925,000$925,000
    LD
    UFA - 2
    $925,000$925,000
    RD
    UFA - 1
    ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
    $5,400,000$5,400,000
    LD
    NTC
    UFA - 1

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    May 27, 2018 at 10:40 a.m.
    #1
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    While I agree Parayko is better then Larsson this deal doesn’t make sense from the Oilers side. We are trading our best RHD for another RHD when we are lacking on that side plus have the possibility of getting another RHD like Dobson with the 10OA. I would rather trade Nurse straight up, who I think is a young Parayko just from the left side.
    May 27, 2018 at 10:52 a.m.
    #2
    TkachukNorris79
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    Wish I could remember to come back here when Stone signs his 7 year deal with Ottawa and laugh at your "guarantee" that Stone won't be back. Him signing long term is probably the thing that is most certain for this team.


    Wouldn't trade an Elite two-way forward for 10th overall and a 22 year old with a severely damaged ACL. I like Fabbri and hope he bounces back and stays healthy but he doesn't hold much value right now because of the uncertainty
    May 27, 2018 at 10:53 a.m.
    #3
    TkachukNorris79
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    Quoting: MelnykOut
    Wish I could remember to come back here when Stone signs his 7 year deal with Ottawa and laugh at your "guarantee" that Stone won't be back. Him signing long term is probably the thing that is most certain for this team.


    Wouldn't trade an Elite two-way forward for 10th overall and a 22 year old with a severely damaged ACL. I like Fabbri and hope he bounces back and stays healthy but he doesn't hold much value right now because of the uncertainty, even if Jaskin is included
    May 27, 2018 at 12:04 p.m.
    #4
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    bjprice
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    Quoting: MelnykOut


    Only reason I put Fabs there is that he has been in rumors for Ott.

    Could be other futures from STL, such as Kyrou, the other 1st we hold, etc.

    It will end up being whoever wins on the draft floor = whoever offers your team the most. Maybe thats STL, maybe Fabs is included as a part, I cannot predict the bidding war.
    May 27, 2018 at 12:06 p.m.
    #5
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    bjprice
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    Edited May 27, 2018 at 12:13 p.m.
    Quoting: Smokingun71
    While I agree Parayko is better then Larsson this deal doesn’t make sense from the Oilers side. We are trading our best RHD for another RHD when we are lacking on that side plus have the possibility of getting another RHD like Dobson with the 10OA. I would rather trade Nurse straight up, who I think is a young Parayko just from the left side.


    Agreed - although giant difference in today's NHL between puck moving RHD and defense first RHD. Only reason STL can do this is because Pietrangelo is on the team, otherwise a non-starter.

    The cost for EDM to acquire somebody like Parayko is a LOT, so can either upgrade and pay that price or buy without upgrade and pay waaaaay more. Something like Pulji + 10th OA + more and find a team willing to take a futures trade...
    May 27, 2018 at 12:25 p.m.
    #6
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    bjprice
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    Edited May 27, 2018 at 12:48 p.m.
    Quoting: MelnykOut


    But one 100% stone cold guarantee from me is that:

    He will move.

    Your (unfortunately) cheap owner is not shelling out 7.5 AAV + AND simultaneously saying rebuild. It just doesn't make sense. Every team who is invited to the "we're going to rebuild" table is going to ask for him. He's the best piece available. You will get above market value for him because of that competition. It will become an offer that will not be refused. You will get a very good draft pick and a very good, but affordable player in return.

    And no offense meant, but pretty likely he can't wait to get the hell out.

    I bet you anything.

    You will get fair value for him because a number of teams will have the solid futures to offer. But hes as good as gone.
    May 27, 2018 at 2:19 p.m.
    #7
    TkachukNorris79
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    Quoting: bjprice
    But one 100% stone cold guarantee from me is that:

    He will move.

    Your (unfortunately) cheap owner is not shelling out 7.5 AAV + AND simultaneously saying rebuild. It just doesn't make sense. Every team who is invited to the "we're going to rebuild" table is going to ask for him. He's the best piece available. You will get above market value for him because of that competition. It will become an offer that will not be refused. You will get a very good draft pick and a very good, but affordable player in return.

    And no offense meant, but pretty likely he can't wait to get the hell out.

    I bet you anything.

    You will get fair value for him because a number of teams will have the solid futures to offer. But hes as good as gone.


    You're clearly not very close to the situation. He'll get at least a 7x7 deal before the draft. He just turned 26. If they rebuild (they're not), then they'll do it around him. No offence meant either, but you couldn't be more wrong about the Stone situation.

    The only way I see him not here is if idiot Dorion let's someone offer sheet him but I doubt that happens.
    May 27, 2018 at 6:27 p.m.
    #8
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    bjprice
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    Quoting: MelnykOut
    You're clearly not very close to the situation. He'll get at least a 7x7 deal before the draft. He just turned 26. If they rebuild (they're not), then they'll do it around him. No offence meant either, but you couldn't be more wrong about the Stone situation.

    The only way I see him not here is if idiot Dorion let's someone offer sheet him but I doubt that happens.


    Well I do recall a number of things I saw on TSN, so just plopped Rebuild Melnyk into google and tons of quotes come up.

    All I can say is that if STL was in the same situation I’d want my GM to take an offer for Tarasenko if one came in that exceeded his value.

    I mean, if you’re going to build a new core, which is essentially what the Senators owner said to season ticket holders very recently, you can either build a weak core by trading your least valuable assets or build a strong one.

    I think Stone is worth every drop of 7 mil a year, hell im proposing my team trade for him....but he’s 26 and has never eclipsed more than 26 goals or 64 points. I’d go as far saying he likely has 2-3 all star game appearances in his next 5-7 years...but he isn’t exactly the best RW on the ice every night. He’s excellent, but you got guys under 21 scoring over 40....under 30 and 26 isn’t ... you know?

    I honestly think Karlsson gets a 9.5 AAV+ offer and I don’t see a simultaneous 7 AAV + offer for Stone given the ownership situation and history. I think OTT knows they’ll have some really significant ticket sales issues if they let Karlsson go.

    So anyway the owner has actually uses the words that describe a rebuild multiple times in very recent history. Because of that teams will call. When they call they’ll ask. When they offer it will be listened to.

    I very very strongly believe that an offer will come for Stone that far exceeds his value, and it will be a situation where “no” cannot be said.

    And honestly, if he were offer sheeted, based on his perceived compensation, you’d make out like bandits.
    May 27, 2018 at 6:37 p.m.
    #9
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    bjprice
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    Edited May 27, 2018 at 6:42 p.m.
    Quoting: MelnykOut
    You're clearly not very close to the situation. He'll get at least a 7x7 deal before the draft. He just turned 26. If they rebuild (they're not), then they'll do it around him. No offence meant either, but you couldn't be more wrong about the Stone situation, and you aren’t “building a foundation for the future” on the return of a Hoffman.

    The only way I see him not here is if idiot Dorion let's someone offer sheet him but I doubt that happens.


    I mean an offer sheet for the unmatched salary for Stone nets you 2 1sts, 2nd n 3rd. That’s a lot...

    So what would you want your GM to do if mine calls offering some heavy mix of (hypothetical) 10 OA, additional 29th OA, Fabbri, Kyrou, Thompson, Kostin, whatever. The futures and NHL ready assets are there and Stone fits many teams (Calgary, NYI, NYR, STL, and many more) needs like a glove. I think it becomes “we cannot refuse this”. I really do not think any of these teams are calling and offering stuff like that for 1 year of Hoffman, for example.

    I mean if somebody wanted to pay a gigantic price for Hoffman, why wouldn’t they just pay that same price for the better Pacioretty.
    May 27, 2018 at 8:09 p.m.
    #10
    TkachukNorris79
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    Quoting: bjprice
    Well I do recall a number of things I saw on TSN, so just plopped Rebuild Melnyk into google and tons of quotes come up.

    All I can say is that if STL was in the same situation I’d want my GM to take an offer for Tarasenko if one came in that exceeded his value.

    I mean, if you’re going to build a new core, which is essentially what the Senators owner said to season ticket holders very recently, you can either build a weak core by trading your least valuable assets or build a strong one.

    I think Stone is worth every drop of 7 mil a year, hell im proposing my team trade for him....but he’s 26 and has never eclipsed more than 26 goals or 64 points. I’d go as far saying he likely has 2-3 all star game appearances in his next 5-7 years...but he isn’t exactly the best RW on the ice every night. He’s excellent, but you got guys under 21 scoring over 40....under 30 and 26 isn’t ... you know?

    I honestly think Karlsson gets a 9.5 AAV+ offer and I don’t see a simultaneous 7 AAV + offer for Stone given the ownership situation and history. I think OTT knows they’ll have some really significant ticket sales issues if they let Karlsson go.

    So anyway the owner has actually uses the words that describe a rebuild multiple times in very recent history. Because of that teams will call. When they call they’ll ask. When they offer it will be listened to.

    I very very strongly believe that an offer will come for Stone that far exceeds his value, and it will be a situation where “no” cannot be said.

    And honestly, if he were offer sheeted, based on his perceived compensation, you’d make out like bandits.


    You can't be looking at raw numbers though. You have to see the context. He had 62 points in 58 games this year. On a team that had the 6th worst goals for. That's an 87 point pace. Even if he hits 80, that's an elite winger. Especially when you consider all the other aspects he brings like his steals and penalty killing. He is absolutely the best RW on the ice every game for that team, guessing you haven't watched many sens games in the past couple of years.

    And when it comes to his age, yeah he's 26 but you have to realize that he was a very late round pick that took some time to develop.

    But all both parties have both publicly stated that they want Mark Stone to be a senator long term. He wants to be here.

    Also, I can almost guarantee you that Duchene and Stone will get +7MM deals this summer. And Karlsson should get 10, but if he wants more, they'll deal him and tell fans that he wanted too much. But I truthfully see all 3 signing this summer.
    May 28, 2018 at 10:34 a.m.
    #11
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    bjprice
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    Quoting: MelnykOut
    You can't be looking at raw numbers though. You have to see the context. He had 62 points in 58 games this year. On a team that had the 6th worst goals for. That's an 87 point pace. Even if he hits 80, that's an elite winger. Especially when you consider all the other aspects he brings like his steals and penalty killing. He is absolutely the best RW on the ice every game for that team, guessing you haven't watched many sens games in the past couple of years.

    And when it comes to his age, yeah he's 26 but you have to realize that he was a very late round pick that took some time to develop.

    But all both parties have both publicly stated that they want Mark Stone to be a senator long term. He wants to be here.

    Also, I can almost guarantee you that Duchene and Stone will get +7MM deals this summer. And Karlsson should get 10, but if he wants more, they'll deal him and tell fans that he wanted too much. But I truthfully see all 3 signing this summer.


    For sure!

    I do think Stone is more than just points - he is excellent on the boards and really strong as a 2-way winger.

    All I am saying is that he isn't, you know, a top 5 winger in the NHL. Hell, Tarasenko is barely one. There are a lot of guys who are in the "hall of excellent", and Stone is another one of those guys.

    I mean just look @ the names on lists like these https://www.nhl.com/news/top-20-wings-nhl-top-players/c-290655480

    Its a different caliber. We are not discussing a trade for a guy like a perennial All Star skater or award vote getter. He is extremely good. But not the ... OMG best RW all time type stuff.

    Like lets say Fabbri does recover, and you get Kyrou, STL's top prospect (well Thomas is but that is because he is a Center), and a couple 1st round picks. Fabbri has the chance, albeit risky, to be better than Stone by himself. Kyrou certainly looks like an NHL talent, but like any OHL prospect, that is a risk too. But then two 1sts also, including a 10OA (in this hypothetical). I just can't see anybody refusing something like that. And Doug Armstrong, STL GM, coming out saying "teams wanted 2 of our highly touted prospects"...well they weren't asking for that in return for Hoffman. And I know that Calgary will be all over any elite RW that comes up. And SJS if they lose the JT91 sweepstakes, Pavelski is getting OLD! and they have capspace.

    Like the bidding is going to go nuts and you are going to get overpaid. I'm sticking by my 100% guarantee. I will eat all the crow if I am wrong but I've been doing this a very long time, and never been more sure of something.
     
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