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Should we be worried

Created by: Oilers4Days
Team: 2020-21 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: May 11, 2021
Published: May 11, 2021
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
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These were the lines at practice and I have to say I hate them.

Hyman can't be on 1LW. He needs to go on the 3LW because he thrives down there. He gets to play easier opponents and he works hard down there.

Because Hyman is at 1LW the whole lines get messed. Foligno is playing 2LW when he should be playing 1LW, and Kerfoot is playing 3LW when he should play 2LW and Hyman should play 3LW.

AND WHY IS SANDIN STILL NOT IN THE LINEUP HE's ON THE 4TH PAIR
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May 11, 2021 at 1:49 p.m.
#26
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Quoting: TrueCanuck
Got a good laugh outta you calling Marner the most overrated player in the game when he's better than Draisaitl. Marner's still 3rd in league scoring and he's MILES better than Draisaitl defensively. But sure, think what you want tears of joy

Leafs are clearly the most dangerous team in the division. They have the depth and the defensive system to prove it. Without McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice the Oilers are nothing more than an AHL team. Toronto has 2 lines that would be a top line on most teams in the league, along with defensive depth in the bottom 6 to shutdown teams -- again, they literally shut down McDavid and Draisaitl for 3 straight games. They've had the entire division chasing them all season but never surrendered first place. Toronto is the hottest team over the last 10 games in the division at 7-1-2 where Edmonton is the third hottest at 7-3-0. So Toronto is actually playing better hockey right now. In fact, since March 27 Toronto is 14-4-3 in 21 games where Edmonton is only 13-5-2 in 20 games since the same time. So saying Edmonton is the most dangerous team or the hottest team in the North is purely false.


K so Drasaitl has played a great season defensively. If we're talking about who played better defensively, it goes to Drai no question. He has a VERY god +/-
May 11, 2021 at 1:56 p.m.
#27
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Quoting: Oilers4Days
K so Drasaitl has played a great season defensively. If we're talking about who played better defensively, it goes to Drai no question. He has a VERY god +/-


Actually, I'll question that immediately. He hasn't had a good season defensively, neither has McDavid and +/- is one of the worst stats in the league and isn't recognized with much value at all when analyzing players. But one of the best stats to evaluate players defensive impact and it's highly valued in analyzing players is xGA (expected goals against).

At 5v5 (lower is better):
Draisaitl - 26.7
McDavid - 26.1
Marner - 14.3
Matthews - 13.7

Matthews and Marner are far, far better defensively than both of McDavid and Draisaitl
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May 11, 2021 at 2:14 p.m.
#28
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Quoting: TrueCanuck
Actually, I'll question that immediately. He hasn't had a good season defensively, neither has McDavid and +/- is one of the worst stats in the league and isn't recognized with much value at all when analyzing players. But one of the best stats to evaluate players defensive impact and it's highly valued in analyzing players is xGA (expected goals against).

At 5v5 (lower is better):
Draisaitl - 26.7
McDavid - 26.1
Marner - 14.3
Matthews - 13.7

Matthews and Marner are far, far better defensively than both of McDavid and Draisaitl


Fair I do want to see where you got those stats from though.

Draisaitl produces more points then Marner.

In 54 games Drai has 30 goals and 51 assists for 81 points.

In 54 games Marner has 20 goals and 47 assists for 67 points.

Drai has more assists and Drai is more of a shooter than a passer. PLUS marner gets paid way more then Drai and Drai is better. Plus Marner is a pure passer but Drai still has more assists
May 11, 2021 at 2:32 p.m.
#29
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Quoting: Oilers4Days
Fair I do want to see where you got those stats from though.

Draisaitl produces more points then Marner.

In 54 games Drai has 30 goals and 51 assists for 81 points.

In 54 games Marner has 20 goals and 47 assists for 67 points.

Drai has more assists and Drai is more of a shooter than a passer. PLUS marner gets paid way more then Drai and Drai is better. Plus Marner is a pure passer but Drai still has more assists


Free stats like that are available on hockey-reference.com or if you subscribe to JFresh hockey on patreon or go to evolving-hockey.com you can find a lot of analytics on players.

& as I said, Marner is far better defensively than Draisaitl and that closes the gap from the offensive numbers. The thing with Draisaitl is that he doesn't produce that highly away from McDavid. As I pointed out in comment #15 in this thread, Draisiatl has McDavid factored into 78% of his points and 70% ofDraisaitl's goals have McDavid with an assist, and 46.6% of those McDavid as the primary assist on the play. Now you might wanna try to argue Marner has Matthews to help him, which is somewhat true, but of Matthews' 40 goals this season, Marner has an assist on 62.5% of them and he's the primary assit on only 37.5% of those, both are much less than McDavid helping Draisaitl out.

Again, if you look at analytics here, xGF (expected goals for) is one of the better ways to see who's generating offence:

At 5v5 (higher is better):
Draisaitl - 16.1
McDavid - 23.1
Matthews - 32.2
Marner - 33.9

Now these are just numbers of offence that should have contributed to goals and don't take into account finishing rates which would be why McDavid and Draisaitl are both lower. But this shows that even the offensive side of the game between Draisaitl and Marner is not what people think. Draisaitl is a better finisher, that's kinda where the line stops. Marner is the better defensive player, better playmaker, better offensive creator. Draisaitl just gets all the attention because he finishes McDavid's plays and points catch the headlines more than what drives the play.
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May 11, 2021 at 7:02 p.m.
#30
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Quoting: TrueCanuck
Free stats like that are available on hockey-reference.com or if you subscribe to JFresh hockey on patreon or go to evolving-hockey.com you can find a lot of analytics on players.

& as I said, Marner is far better defensively than Draisaitl and that closes the gap from the offensive numbers. The thing with Draisaitl is that he doesn't produce that highly away from McDavid. As I pointed out in comment #15 in this thread, Draisiatl has McDavid factored into 78% of his points and 70% ofDraisaitl's goals have McDavid with an assist, and 46.6% of those McDavid as the primary assist on the play. Now you might wanna try to argue Marner has Matthews to help him, which is somewhat true, but of Matthews' 40 goals this season, Marner has an assist on 62.5% of them and he's the primary assit on only 37.5% of those, both are much less than McDavid helping Draisaitl out.

Again, if you look at analytics here, xGF (expected goals for) is one of the better ways to see who's generating offence:

At 5v5 (higher is better):
Draisaitl - 16.1
McDavid - 23.1
Matthews - 32.2
Marner - 33.9

Now these are just numbers of offence that should have contributed to goals and don't take into account finishing rates which would be why McDavid and Draisaitl are both lower. But this shows that even the offensive side of the game between Draisaitl and Marner is not what people think. Draisaitl is a better finisher, that's kinda where the line stops. Marner is the better defensive player, better playmaker, better offensive creator. Draisaitl just gets all the attention because he finishes McDavid's plays and points catch the headlines more than what drives the play.


I'm an Oilers and a Leafs fan btw.

Draisaitl put that debate to bed though last year when people said that he only is goo cause of McDavid. He does play on his own line you know. But let's be honest would you rather have McDavid and Drai in game 7 of the playoffs or Matthews and Marner
May 11, 2021 at 9:50 p.m.
#31
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Quoting: Oilers4Days
I'm an Oilers and a Leafs fan btw.

Draisaitl put that debate to bed though last year when people said that he only is goo cause of McDavid. He does play on his own line you know. But let's be honest would you rather have McDavid and Drai in game 7 of the playoffs or Matthews and Marner


Draisaitl plays on his own line but doesn't produce as well, he only produces when he's with McDavid. & my last comment with the stats shows that. Personally idc what he did last season, McDavid only missed like 10-15 games I think anyways. That's nothing huge.

& in a game 7 matchup, I'm taking Matthews and Marner all day. They can defend McDavid and Draisaitl. I'd be worried about McDavid and Draisaitl being able to defend anything.
May 12, 2021 at 1:57 p.m.
#32
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Quoting: TrueCanuck
You're joking right? Leafs went 6-1-2 against Edmonton this year. & do you not remember when McDavid and Draisaitl were invisible in 3 straight games against Toronto?


"McDavid and Drai can take over games" - also false. McDavid can. But Draisaitl and the entire Edmonton team, is nothing without McDavid on the ice.

Through 54 games this season Draisaitl has 81 points (30G, 51A). Now let's break that down a bit more:

49 EV strength points - 28 of them McDavid has factored in on (57.1%)
32 powerplay points - 25 of them McDavid has factored in on (78.1%)
81 total points - 63 of them McDavid has factored in on (77.7%)
30 total goals - 21 McDavid ahead recorded an assist on (70%)
30 total goals - 14 of them McDavid had the primary assist on (46.6%)

All this despite McDavid and Draisatil not playing together all the time. But when McDavid isn't with Draisaitl, Draisaitl isn't producing at the same elite rate that he does with McDavid. Draisaitl might be the most overrated player in the league


Can you send the stats for how many times Marner factored into Matthews' goals?? Im curious
May 12, 2021 at 2:54 p.m.
#33
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Quoting: LeafsFanZay
Can you send the stats for how many times Marner factored into Matthews' goals?? Im curious


Would love to actually.

Through 50 games this season Matthews has 65 points (40G, 25A). Now the breakdown:

52 EV strength points - 35 of them Marner has factored in on (67.3%)
13 powerplay points - 5 of them Marner has factored in on (38.4%)
65 total points - 40 of them Marner has factored in on (61.5%)
40 total goals - 25 Marner has recorded an assist on (62.5%)
40 total goals - 15 of them Marner had the primary assist on (37.5%)

One thing I didn't mention last comment is the amount of playing time each player has with each teammate which is also extremely important:
Draisaitl has played with McDavid 47.6% of the time on ice.
Matthews has played with Marner 96.4% of the time on ice.

So the only category here where McDavid helps Draisaitl less than Marner helps Matthews is EV strength points. And that's highly affected by the fact that Marner and Matthews play together almost all the time. If Draisaitl was so good, wouldn't he still be able to produce without McDavid since Draisatil plays without him more? But then why does McDavid factor into Draisaitl's points so much?

Here's a little more info on the both of Matthews and Draisaitl to help determine who's better (all stats a 5v5 to make it easier to compare):

Matthews:
xGF - 32.2
xGA - 13.6
corsiFor - 53.9%
FenwickFor - 55.2%
oZS - 57.6%
shooting % - 18.7%
takeaways/giveaways - 47/52
hits - 56
blocked shots - 46
faceoff % - 51.9%


Draisaitl:
xGF - 16.1
xGA - 26.7
corsiFor - 51.7%
FenwickFor - 51.7%
oZS - 54.7%
shooting % - 18.5
takeaways/giveaways - 52/69
hits - 36
blocked shots - 12
faceoff % - 55.8%


Matthews is better than Draisaitl in 8 of 11 categories here. The ones I've picked were to help show different areas of the game and not just pure offence. Some of its defence, some of its offence, and some of it is physical play to help show the more complete player. Matthews comes out on top in most categories.

Matthews >> Draisaitl (and it's not close anymore).

Drasaitl had his big year last season, but this year he's proved that without McDavid he's not the elite player he's hyped up to be because of one good season the year prior.
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