This is actually a possibility. 3.5 cap hit. MInn has just over 4

For me, who has no outside knowledge, IMO the Leafs are going to have either Sandin or Muzzin on the roster come opening night, not both. One of them is getting moved.

Which will change the lineup a little bit, but agree with what you have here.



Edit:
Also, for me SEA is the better fit for Kerfoot not MIN

I've wondered about Kerfoot as a Wild fan. We do have a little cap cushion after moving Talbot and Guerin has said he's looking for another forward piece. Also, as you noted, Greenway is looking to start the year on IR (as is Merrill). Between those two, and depending on the rehab time, we may have a couple bodies on LTIR.

Price is certainly reasonable here, so probably just depends on what our front office/Guerin thinks of him. Would they rather just go the cheap route of a Sam Steel or Heinen type via FA. Kerfoot's obviously better, but just depends on how significant they perceive that delta to be.

It also is important if Guerin thinks he can keep Kerfoot around beyond this season. At this price, we could probably get someone like Kapanen, who we could get at this cap hit or less and also have under contract for a year or two more than Kerfoot. Sure, I would rather have Kerfoot on my team but if its between 1 year of Kerfoot at 3.5m for a 3rd or 3 years of Kapanen at 3m for a 3rd I am going with Kapanen

All depends on what he wants. Kerfoot would have value at TDL, so worst case scenario, you could use him as a loaner. It'd be easier to move a pending UFA in Kerfoot with 50% retention than it would be to move 3 years of Kapanen. I get that argument for cost certainty through the heavy cap years, but it's overhyped IMO. The Goose signing is an example of that.

I get your point though and it's valid. I just don't think we should be giving ourselves tunnel vision for cap certainty.

Agreed, that is a good point. Definitely could get quite the haul at the deadline for Kerfoot 50% retained and Dumba 50% retained to contenders if things aren’t going well. My worry is the Wild look like a decent playoff team and ride out the season then we suddenly lose control of both Dumba and Kerfoot following a early exit. It wouldn’t be the end of the world with how well Guerin and Brackett have done to maximize their value from picks, just would sting a bit losing decent value for nothing but that is the price you pay trying to compete in the NHL.

Yeah I think us being a bubble/low playoff team and riding out expiring contracts is a very real possibility. As you said, it's not the end of the world, but it's certainly not my preference. I guess we'll see.