These are written to see how they age. I’m guessing more likely milk than wine. Ordered by likelihood.

*Teams that fit as trade partners in order of likelihood

Detroit - Yzerman is Doug Armstrongs dad
Winnipeg - Chevy is sneaky, the last time the jets added they called us
Islanders - have to think they’re gonna add, even if small
Lightning - bargain deals
Hurricanes - wildcard
Flyers - doing stuff
Penguins - doing stuff
Canadian team - we can retain


Preface: I don’t know that stl should be sellers, but guys like Elliott Friedman have said that the blues have had players available all season. I’m assuming they should sell if they’ve had their players available all season.

Pessimistic no big deals deadline:

https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/812489

Sells:

Skater: Oskar Sundqvist
Return: mid round pick (3rd-4th)

Concept: Oskar is all the things that get traded: seemingly healthy physical depth skater, extremely low aav, lots of experience on both special teams, can center altho slow, pending ufa. If the blues are sellers he is the most likely to be sold because he is the easiest to sell and has the largest potential market. Also is a possible nice addition to a larger deal due to his extremely low Aav helping others with cap situations.

Skater: Marco Scandella
Return: mid to late round pick (3rd-5th)

Concept: his ice time is down so much, but he’s been a positive in some areas when on the ice. My guess is he is pretty far down the list of what’s available, maybe third best pure rental left handed d, but has a higher aav that will limit options, and whether there is a market for him will depend on how many similar transactions occur and where the market is when his name pops up. Would most likely have to use a retention slot to move him, making it slightly less likely.

Skater: Kasperi Kapanen
Return: excess skater from Pitt in hockey trade or upper mid round pick (2nd-3rd)

Concept: Penguins cannot be buyers, but also have had two major injuries to their top 9: Guentzel and Rust. Kapanen knows their system, would be an easy plug in, has special teams icetime from his time there. He is a pending UFA. Perhaps there is a deal here where Dubas has excess in some other role and a hockey trade occurs that is reverted at a later date similar to Phoenix Copley or Sammy blais, intentional or not.

Otherwise, Kapanen should be made available to the market, and should command an upper mid round pick if stl uses retention. I would do a favor in a world without favors and hook dubas up, is worth much more than a 4% chance magic bean, the opportunities are so far and few, and you have no sunk cost. Just tell Doobey Doobey Doo that the next time he’s selling something good you get the first pass at it. Probably traded, but maybe not. Stl could resign - they do need people to play hockey.

Skater: Buchnevich
Destination: Wings, Hurricanes, Knights
Return: Elliot Friedman: “2 firsts”. It will involve moving active roster players, so each concept is a case by case. Cap dumps or retention could occur, adding complexity. (Perron, Berggren, 1st = “2 firsts”)

Concept: a lot of the contending teams have well defined forward groups. To acquire Buchnevich, they need to be contending, but also have/make a hole in their lineup this/next season, as well as have the assets to pay the trade bill, capspace, and icetime for Buchnevich the next night. This really limits the market, and therefore the likely return. I personally like the Detroit fit and the history between the 2 gms. Coin flip, less likely as time continues. This is not really an eleventh hour deal, but Yzerman does sometimes seem like an 11th hour gm. Rumor sites mention Edmonton a lot. I do not see Kane being traded nor allowing a trade, and I don’t see how you’d do icetime with draisaitl, Kane, and Buchnevich serving the same role. I don’t know that Buchnevich would waive for a Canadian market either, as it’s like the player accepting a pay cut due to tax differences. I think Edmontons target is Parayko, but it looks like that is fully not a thing this deadline now as seen below.

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/4921620

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/4913678

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/4951850

Skater: Sammy Blais
Return: late round pick

Concept: I don’t know that any team covets Blais. I’m not sure what to make of his season or future. Still, hes 27, pending ufa, and seemingly healthy, therefore is on the radar. Coin flip.

Skater: Parayko

-a kinda cool story from edmontons beat writer says the team was asked about the deadline and they responded that there were players they didn’t want to see traded, and that seems to include ceci. If that’s the case this deal is off the table. Rule number one is if mcdavid is cool with it, don’t mess with it. This is prob best for the blues. As others have pointed out; this blows a huge hole in our defense.

Destination: Edmonton or other Canadian market
Return: I can’t pretend to aim with the accuracy that Edmontons front office aims with. Whatever deal they’re working on, it will be precise. (Ceci broberg picks idk)

Concept: Edmontons biggest weaknesses are its shutdown pairing and goaltending. You have to think that they’re going to strengthen a weakness. Nurse Parayko seems like a really good idea. Parayko’s contract structure benefits all Canadian teams (lowest aav config). Edmonton has also been banking deadline space for a bit with 21/23 on their roster. Makes me think they need deadline space due to a specific, expensive acquisition. Until Edmonton fixes its top 4 I think this possibility will exist at deadlines. Probably not going to happen, but … if it is going to happen it would be close to the deadline. I don’t see the a toronto deal as shown below. I don’t see a trade that helps us as much as it would help them

Even tho this looks like it’s not gonna happen, I think it remains a possibility in the future. It’s a good fit for the player and the skill set.

https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/811356

Https://wwe.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/811727

Skater: Krug
Return: see: Kevin Hayes except you’re Philly

Concept: his agent found a path to Boston or something. I suggest Tampa since they’ve spent all their assets, and krug would not cost assets. But it’s dumb to speculate on trade clauses. Not likely.

Skater: Scott Perunovich.
Return: ???

Concept: Perunovich needs to skate 80 total nhl games or he is a ufa as a group 6 ufa. The blues could decide to make a change due to this situation. Unlikely, as they’ve spent all season bending the defense to facilitate Perunovich’s ice time. They ejected Bortuzzo so he could play. I don’t see how he could think he’d get a better chance elsewhere. It seems that they are committed to him. Stl could always offer a 1-year deal - giving the player control if it continues to not work out. If stl sells, the value is probably lower than desired.

Skater: Binnington
Return: tiny since there are way more goalies available than teams needing goalies.

Concept: there are a number of teams shopping for goaltending and he’s a goaltender. Extremely unlikely. Below is a somewhat iffy trade attempt with Philly where toropchenko and Binnington head that way, a first round right handed d prospect and futures go to stl. It’s not good, I’d redo it, but this type of deal could exist this deadline, specifically with Philly due to Carter hart and their playoff contention. If I had removed philly’s first from that deal I think it’s closer to what could happen.

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/4945956

Skater: Saad
Return: 2nd+skater

Concept: with 2 years left this is not likely. Stl has no reason to move him, he’s versatile, his deal gets better each of its last 2 years $ wise while the cap raises. You have to have good pros around developing prospects, and replacing him would cost more $. Only really makes sense if there’s some agent work behind the scenes such as a private trade demand or some overpay offer. Most unlikely, but if somebody wants to overpay, don’t stop them, and if he wants to go, there should be suitors, he’s legit and cost efficient.

Edit: Skater: Jordan Kyrou
Return: I’m afraid to say that I’d like one Clayton Keller or one Lawson Crouse? Brady Tkachuk? …Zegras? Like…I dunno, Kyrou is polarizing. My stance is I enjoy watching him. I can be critical if I try in any situation. I don’t love his game. I don’t root against my team. If he’s traded I want something good.

Concept: his name has popped up enough times that he hits the list. Players with his contract situation are rarely traded, and I cannot find a comp. Good luck blues fans if this happens, would be a big deal.

Anybody else:
-no reason to trade them now

If Doug armstrong is unable to make a market and find deals, then this would be the second deadline in a row he has failed, the prior being the draft floor. I would expect a gm change if the deadline passes and nothing occurs. It would indicate he’s either burned too many bridges or is just a failure at promotion his assets.

Eh, can’t win em all.

Can’t fail at predicting trades when there’s no trades to fail at predicting.

I’m glad Sunny stayed.

Imma suggest 50/50 gm turnover occurs. Entirely depends on tons of stuff we have no clue about. Still, is the second deadline in a row where a plan failed, assuming the plan on the draft floor was to transact with a few picks, and assuming this deadline was an opportunity to accumulate more assets/sell of old ones. I think I’d rather Doug Armstrong remain, but I think I’d be okay if he didn’t as well.

I think the best thing the blues could do now, apart from some off season roster stuff, is to experiment with their roster the remainder of the season. I think I’d try things like Toropchenko netfront on the power play, moving Kyrou with schenn and trying the young players with Thomas for portions of games. I think St. Louis should target flattening their minutes across lines - get the lowest minute guys up a few shifts and push the high minute down a shift or two - preach shorter shifts especially when hemming the opponent in their zone. The bottom of the roster is the strongest aspect and it should be used to give the top of the roster more selective opportunities. Give guys like alexandrov icetime too - he isn’t going to improve if he gets 8 45 second shifts a game.

Basically, in the next year or so, it would be awfully nice if our 4th liner group could be replaced with some of those guys pushing into the middle of the lineup.

The middle of the lineup is a black hole. Every aspect needs improvement: secondary scoring, forecheck pressure, puck possession. Opponents can stack their deck against our top line. If the help isn’t coming from the outside, it has to come within.