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Studs and Duds

Created by: fangm
Team: 2024-25 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Mar. 15, 2024
Published: Mar. 15, 2024
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$850,000
2$850,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$775,000
6$2,500,000
2$1,350,000
8$2,250,000
4$4,250,000
2$850,000
Trades
1.
TOR
  1. Karlsson, Erik ($2,500,000 retained)
2.
TOR
  1. 2024 4th round pick (VAN)
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2024
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the CGY
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the OTT
2025
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
2026
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
21$83,500,000$83,455,500$0$0$44,500
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$925,000$925,000
LW, RW
RFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$13,250,000$13,250,000
C
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$10,903,000$10,903,000
RW
NMC
UFA - 1
$1,350,000$1,350,000
LW
UFA
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,500,000$2,500,000
C, RW
UFA
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,500,000$11,500,000
RW
NMC
UFA - 8
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$935,833$935,833
LW, C
RFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,000,000$11,000,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,350,000$1,350,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$800,000$800,000
C, LW
RFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$850,000$850,000
LW, C
RFA
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,350,000$1,350,000
RW
UFA - 2
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$7,500,000$7,500,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 6
$4,250,000$4,250,000
RD
UFA
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$766,667$766,667
G
RFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,000,000$2,000,000
LD/RD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
$7,500,000$7,500,000
RD
NMC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$775,000$775,000
G
UFA
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$850,000$850,000
LD
UFA - 3
$2,250,000$2,250,000
RD
UFA
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
$850,000$850,000
LD/RD, LW
UFA

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Mar. 15 at 12:19 p.m.
#1
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You would need to trade for Desharnais's signing rights to give him an 8 year deal, not that I would recommend it.
Mar. 15 at 12:21 p.m.
#2
"Go sell ice cream!"
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I think Dubas would want futures back and not roster players for Karlsson.
Mar. 15 at 12:25 p.m.
#3
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Quoting: DangleCat
You would need to trade for Desharnais's signing rights to give him an 8 year deal, not that I would recommend it.


Forgot about that but I'd do 7 anyways.

I know it's an overpay but I'm factoring in:

1. He's French so Leafs won't be his first choice.
2. At every deadline the leafs trade for a guy like him (2022- 2nd+Ritchie for Lybushkin, 2023- 3rd for Schenn, 2024- 3rd+6th for Lybushkin, 3rd+5th for Edm) even if we overpay by $500k-750k it will save us 5x3rds during our competitive period and towards the end of the deal if the window is closing he's the type of D playoff teams overpay for. At worst it gets us a 3rd at best a Charot type deal can net a 1st.

Overall the risk/reward makes sense and I'd rather pay to get this type of player we desperately need at 27 than give the money to Lybushkin or Edm who are in their 30s.
DangleCat liked this.
Mar. 15 at 12:27 p.m.
#4
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Quoting: jfkst1
I think Dubas would want futures back and not roster players for Karlsson.


Depends on how the rest of this season goes. As it stands now they don't have a 1st in 2025 so young roster players makes more sense.
Mar. 15 at 12:30 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: fangm
Depends on how the rest of this season goes. As it stands now they don't have a 1st in 2025 so young roster players makes more sense.


This deal isn't going to help them in the next season. The hole Karlsson leaves will be massive on an already mediocre blue line. He isn't worth his cap hit, but he is still a good RD and probably the best dman on the team. They won't improve the team in the short term by trading him. It would be more about getting Karlsson somewhere competitive and clearing cap space on a rebuilding team.
Mar. 15 at 12:33 p.m.
#6
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lol no from pit
Mar. 15 at 12:54 p.m.
#7
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Quoting: jfkst1
This deal isn't going to help them in the next season. The hole Karlsson leaves will be massive on an already mediocre blue line. He isn't worth his cap hit, but he is still a good RD and probably the best dman on the team. They won't improve the team in the short term by trading him. It would be more about getting Karlsson somewhere competitive and clearing cap space on a rebuilding team.


He is not the best defensmen on the team, he isn't even the best rhd on the team and the cap space would be very valuable.

Pittsburgh should have never made the trade to get him
Mar. 15 at 1:19 p.m.
#8
Syd Barret
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Pens can't turn this offer down fast enough lmao. Yikes.
A couple depth/ ahl level pieces. One dman that can't crack the top 4. For the norris winner with major retention. This has to be a troll
Mar. 15 at 1:24 p.m.
#9
Puckhead
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Hmm I was going to start hacking at each move but then I looked at the lineup and I kind of like it...even though...

I am not and never actually was a fan of Karlsson.
I think Domi just doesn't fit, maybe when Tavares is gone.
What happened to Minten, Marlies?

The whole of what you did is greater than the sum of the parts though, so I commend your GMing!
Mar. 15 at 1:51 p.m.
#10
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Quoting: littlejerryseinfeld
He is not the best defensmen on the team, he isn't even the best rhd on the team and the cap space would be very valuable.

Pittsburgh should have never made the trade to get him


Letang is well below his peak. Almost no one would take Letang over Karlsson at the same cap hit. Though most would take Letang at his cap hit relative to Karlsson's. Pettersson is excellent defensively, but questionable to rely on for offensive production. Though again, from a cap value perspective, I can see that argument. But this wasn't about cap value, strictly about on ice performance. Dubas was hired under the expectation of trying to get the core into the playoffs. They wouldn't be any better if they had Petry, Rutta, and Granlund for $14m instead of Karlsson for $11.5m. Might help expedite the rebuild by having the 1st round pick though.
Mar. 15 at 3:00 p.m.
#11
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Quoting: fil97
lol no from pit


Quoting: jfkst1
This deal isn't going to help them in the next season. The hole Karlsson leaves will be massive on an already mediocre blue line. He isn't worth his cap hit, but he is still a good RD and probably the best dman on the team. They won't improve the team in the short term by trading him. It would be more about getting Karlsson somewhere competitive and clearing cap space on a rebuilding team.


I agree but I think this is a half way measure.

People always forget how young Leafs prospects are because they are so heavily covered.

Robertson is 22, Lili is 24.

Robertson is 5 months older than the best ranked prospect of the three Pit got in the Bunting deal.

Robertson has 19 points in 41 games averaging 11:22/ night. With some real ice time he should be a lock as a 50/60 points player.

Lili's a #2RD when he's on his game. Problem is he is super streaky. Maybe he is able to find his game in a lower pressure environment.

Kampf/Jarnkrok are role players that Dubas loves who fill holes in the penguins bottom 6 (Carter leaving).

I'm not saying this trade makes them a playoff team or that it maximizes their futures. Just that it gives them 4 players who will be in their lineup next year at reasonable cap hits, two of whom will likely also be in the lineup when the next core is playing in 4-6 years from now and those two will be in their prime at that time.
Mar. 15 at 8:43 p.m.
#12
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Quoting: fangm
I agree but I think this is a half way measure.

People always forget how young Leafs prospects are because they are so heavily covered.

Robertson is 22, Lili is 24.

Robertson is 5 months older than the best ranked prospect of the three Pit got in the Bunting deal.

Robertson has 19 points in 41 games averaging 11:22/ night. With some real ice time he should be a lock as a 50/60 points player.

Lili's a #2RD when he's on his game. Problem is he is super streaky. Maybe he is able to find his game in a lower pressure environment.

Kampf/Jarnkrok are role players that Dubas loves who fill holes in the penguins bottom 6 (Carter leaving).

I'm not saying this trade makes them a playoff team or that it maximizes their futures. Just that it gives them 4 players who will be in their lineup next year at reasonable cap hits, two of whom will likely also be in the lineup when the next core is playing in 4-6 years from now and those two will be in their prime at that time.


Best ranked prospect in that deal is Koivunen, not Ponomarev. Koivunen had one of the best seasons ever for a 20 yr old in Liiga and the player Dubas explicitly wanted.
I like Robertson. He has promising underlying numbers. Guaranteeing he will be a legit top 6 forward is overly optimistic. I don't mind Liligren either, but chances are he is better as a 3rd pairing dman.
Dubas can't serve two masters. Either he wants to compete with this core or he needs to rebuild.
 
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