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ACRE3000
Member Since
Jun. 19, 2021
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Toronto Maple Leafs
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Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 21, 2021 at 5:19 p.m.
Thread:
Balanced Leaf
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>smkruzik</b></div><div>I see what you're saying. <strong>Yes, I'd agree he's a top 4; but what Dangles is saying we need a guy who is on average a 1-2, and at worst 3-4. Holl right now is a consistently excellent 3-4, who can spot play 1-2 as needed; but he'd need to be on top of his game playing lights out to be a regular every game 1-2. </strong>
To be honest; I wouldn't mind having him just to balance out the LD/RD situation. It'd be an upgrade on Myers if he doesn't turn his game around in year 3, and would allow us to bump Braun down to the 5-6 where he would be most effective given his age and skill.</div></div>
That's a fair assessment and I agree. On the Leafs Muzzin and Brodie fill that 2D/3D role allowing Holl to do his thing as the 4D, obviously with Rielly as the 1D on the top pair. Contrary to other Leaf fans I actually want to keep Rielly if they can sign him for $6 million or under, even if the land Jones or Hamilton. Unlike most of the Leafs team his strengths actually make a positive difference in the playoffs when things tighten up (skating, speed, transition game, etc). He might not have the best shot but he's always taken his game to another level in the playoffs unlike the rest of the core
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 21, 2021 at 5:14 p.m.
Thread:
Balanced Leaf
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MauriceArthur15</b></div><div>You do realize most of Marners contract has been paid out. Owners want deadcap. After the start of free agency Marners is owed only 25 million over the next 4 years…
That’s a cheaper contract than Pasta, Point and Rantanen. Nice try bud for offering terrible value for Marner.</div></div>
Which of those forwards is Marner better than like you said "top 10 forward".
McDavid? No Chance
Mackinnon or Matthews? ditto
Draisaitl? Similar talents but Drai is the better goalscorer by far, makes him more dangerous
Kucherov? LOL
Kane? Almost outscored Marner on a team where he outscored the 2nd leading scorer of the hawks by 10 points and 3rd leading scorer of the Hawks by 30...Marner didn't even have the highest ppg on his own line.
Barkov? Nope
Panarin, Crosby, Marchand? Nope
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 21, 2021 at 5:10 p.m.
Thread:
Balanced Leaf
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>smkruzik</b></div><div>I see what you're saying. Yes, I'd agree he's a top 4; but what Dangles is saying we need a guy who is on average a 1-2, and at worst 3-4. Holl right now is a consistently excellent 3-4, who can spot play 1-2 as needed; but he'd need to be on top of his game playing lights out to be a regular every game 1-2.
To be honest; I wouldn't mind having him just to balance out the LD/RD situation. It'd be an upgrade on Myers if he doesn't turn his game around in year 3, and would allow us to bump Braun down to the 5-6 where he would be most effective given his age and skill.</div></div>
Another thing to account for is who his partner would be on the Flyers. He's pretty much played with Muzzin in his career as the main shutdown pairing however as good as Muzzin is Provorov is better.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 21, 2021 at 5:07 p.m.
Thread:
Balanced Leaf
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DirtyDangles</b></div><div>Well the Flyers don't need a 2nd pairing guy, they need a top pairing guy. I highly, highly doubt the Leafs are in on Hamilton or Jones.</div></div>
At the end of the day there's a reason you post here instead of working for an NHL team. Who knows what they can do. They can easily move out Kerfoot once his bonus is paid, Soup and Engvall to free up a decent amount of space.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 21, 2021 at 3:23 p.m.
Thread:
Balanced Leaf
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>adamorimoli61</b></div><div>if Jones signs 8x8 we RIOT. Wouldn't pay him a penny over 6 (even though he will get more)... Also Spezza cannot play on the first line, he's great and we all love him but chill</div></div>
He's horrible defensively to be playing on either of the bottom 6 lines but he does still bring offence despite his age, load managing Spezza can be an option as well with guys like Brooks, Anderson, etc.
It's like Leaf fans are unaware of what good defensemen look like, did Jones have a bad year? Sure. Was he a consensus top 3-5 D-man in the league prior to last season? Yes
If you're going to compete with teams like the Avs with Makar or the Bolts with Hedman you're going to need someone a lot better than Rielly to be your best D-man (I think Rielly is a 1D but he's more in the 20-30 range, at his peak a couple seasons ago 10-20 but he's regressed despite having a better defensive core around him). Jones allows them to move on from Rielly if he won't sign a team-friendly deal (Sandin would replace his role in the roster above in 2022-23 while Liljegren steps into a bottom pairing role that same year replacing Sandin from 2021-22.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 21, 2021 at 3:16 p.m.
Thread:
Balanced Leaf
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DirtyDangles</b></div><div>We need a capable top pairing guy to play with Provy, not a fringe 2nd pairing guy...bud</div></div>
Holl is a legit top 4 D-man and excels at his shutdown role, as long as you don't need him to put up points you'll never have an issue with him as your 4D. I do think in terms of rebalancing the Leafs if they can acquire a Jones or Hamilton it can allow them to move Holl + for a top 6 forward if they're insistent on not moving any of the core 4.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 21, 2021 at 3:12 p.m.
Thread:
Balanced Leaf
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MauriceArthur15</b></div><div>Also terrible trade by Toronto for Jones. Marner is Jones, Jenner, Foudy and probably their 1st (5th overall).<strong> Marner is a top 10 forward in this league at minimum</strong>.</div></div>
1. McDavid
2. Matthews
3. Mackinnon
4. Draisiatl
5. Kucherov
6. Barkov
7. Marchand
8. Kane
9. Crosby
10. Panarin
All 10 of those guys are better than Marner right now. Then add guys like Rantanen, Point, Pasta who are on Marner's level or close to it but come in at a cheaper contract.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 21, 2021 at 12:57 p.m.
Thread:
Leafs Eichel amp Vets
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Elevatorboy</b></div><div>Stop.</div></div>
Nah I'm good, spend less time on the site if it bothers you
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 20, 2021 at 6:30 p.m.
Thread:
New Leaf
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ChiHawk</b></div><div>First of all, you aren't understanding how the Hawks scored this year. Outside of Kubalik, Cat, and Kane, the scoring was widely spread out. The Hawks offense is very balanced, the Leafs offense is completely top heavy on the first two lines, moreso first line. That's not the case with the Hawks. The top 3 lines are scoring so it's much more evenly spread out. Kane can play next to Suter, Vermette, Anisimov, etc. and still puts up a career numbers and almost always in discussion for the Hart unlike Marner. Marner has never proven he can be a top scorer in the league not next to Matthews 70% or JT the other 30% of the time...that's just a fact. It's also a fact, Marner can't take over a playoff game on his own and win it. He's had many opportunities to do so, but never has he had for example had a hat trick and put on an absolute clinic when the Leafs are down; I'm not talking about a game winning goal either I'm talking about dominating a playoff game to pull his team through on his own back. His success, directly correlates if Matthews is having a good to great game or not. If Matthews has a **** game, Marner isn't going to have a great game...it's a hand and glove situation. With Kane, it's never been that for him. Look at the MTL series, Marner looked like a rag doll falling all over the ice. I've NEVER seen Kane look that bad in a playoff series. For you to begin to pretend any differently tells me you haven't closely watched Kane's career and especially his playoff career or are simply too much of a homer to realize it.
Facts are facts; how many Hart votes has Marner received in his career and in the same duration has Kane received? Take any season they've both played. How about NHLPA awards; probably the best measuring stick as these are guys voting for guys they play against. There is simply no argument to be made that Marner is as good at this point. Maybe when Kane slows down, or maybe when Marner gets better, but the simple fact is, Marner sits on the wing of a guy who is a elite center in the league something Kane has never had and still has way more respect by the league and their peers for good reason.
Again, the Hawks spread their production more evenly then the Leafs. The Leafs are a two line team up front and have been for years. The Hawks this past two seasons have found offense, but they find it through guys they've picked up in Europe and guys on in the bottom 6 beyond Kane and Cat as the usual suspects. Fact is, the Hawks this season played with a 1C and 2C that would be a 3C on the Leafs; think about that.
Yes, and $3.6M in today's flat cap means a lot. Kubalik = $3.7M, Murphy = $3.8, Suter will get $2.5M'ish....it's nothing to sneeze at it's foolish argument on your end to say it shouldn't matter. It does and no, the Hawks don't want Marner for essentually $14.1M for the next 2 years and Kane isn't waiving to go to Toronto so it's a moot point to debate anymore. Good day</div></div>
1. After Kane's first 5 seasons (AKA where Marner is RIGHT NOW at 23) Kane didn't receive any Hart trophy votes in his 1st, 2nd, 4th or 5th season, he finished 7th in Hart trophy voting in his 3rd season. Marner through his first 4 seasons despite outscoring Kane has not received any Hart trophy votes however that will change after this year (his 5th season) where he was 4th in league scoring. In Kane's first 8 seasons, he only received Hart trophy votes in 2 of them and never finished higher than 7th. Why exactly are you comparing the entirety of Kane's career to Marner's first 5?
Assuming Marner receives Hart trophy voting this season he'll only need to do it once more in the next 3 seasons to match what Kane did through his first 8 years.
2. You just proved you never watched the Leafs early young core during the Babcock era. I don't pretend to watch the Hawks and know all their players...no clue why you're pretending to do that with Marner. If you actually watched Marner during his ELC you'd realize that Babcock deployed him the same way you described Kane now. From Bozak and JVR on the 2nd line to Kadri on the 3rd as well as the occasional time spent on the 4th line. The Hawks current scoring distribution is how the early Leafs core teams were set up with Matthews on line 1, Marner on line 2 and Kadri-Nylander on line 3.
3. The numbers are literally there for you, Marner doesn't need Tavares or Matthews to go ppg...he went ppg in his 2nd season after being put with Kadri 1/2 through the season who nobody would mistake for Matthews or Tavares.
4. The Hawks top 2 centers would be 3C on the Leafs bc Matthews is a top 3-5 player in the league and Tavares is a borderline top 10 C...there are a decent amount of teams that you could make the case their top 2 C's would be the Leafs 3C.
5. Even if you made that Kane trade at 30% retained at signed those guys you mentioned at the $ you listed the Hawks would still have $21 million to sign the rest of those bottom 6 forwards.
6. Early Patrick Kane was by no means a consistent playoff beast that could take over a series, Kane only had 1 post season in his first 5 seasons that he finished ppg. Outside of their cup run he had 24 points in 29 playoff games after 5 seasons.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 19, 2021 at 6:37 p.m.
Thread:
New Leaf
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ChiHawk</b></div><div><strong>Kane can take over a game, Marner can not. Hands down, the Leafs would want Kane over Marner for very good reason. You put Marner next to Pius Suter, there is absolutely no way he just drops off 10 to 15 points, it will be more like 20 to 30 points....it's conjecture otherwise when he's been playing next to elite centers to think only 10 points is the dropoff going from Matthews to Suter or Dach...that's absolutely crazy thinking.
</strong>
I'm not comparing Kane's or Marner's first two seasons, it's irrelevant as the trade is taking place today not then. Bottom line, Marner plays next to an elite center and a player that potted more goals then anyone. Matthew hands down drives that line, Marner makes it better but doesn't drive the line. Kane drives his own lines and always has, he makes every player on his line much better then they are. Even the NHLPA just voted who is the best stick handler in the league and it was Kane, also voted 2nd best passer in the game, and top 6 for the one player in the league they would want to have on their team in a must win game. Kane is a superior player even given the age differences...always has been. Also, Kane is simply a better playoff player...he can single-handidly change the outcome of a playoff game and has shown that many times, Marner can not.
Kane will 95% likely end his career and Chicago and work for the organization post retirement, he's stated it several times that is his wish. Acquiring 4 years of Marner and taking on a cap hit of $14.1M for the two years to do it is assinine when Marner can and probably will walk in two more years after that. We can get a very good 4 more years of Kane and at a cheaper price....better to have that championship pedigree on our team then not.
Appreciate the discussion but as we both know there is zero reality in this trade anyway.</div></div>
No, what's crazy thinking is when you start talking in terms that can't be disproven..."Kane can take over a game, Marner can not", "Marner would drop by 20-30 points". Nobody knows those things, you just wanna prop up the player on your team so you're assuming Marner can't do that. Until Marner is put in that situation you can't say anything. Convenient how you left out Debrincat though, Matthews, Tavares, Kadri and JVR had their best goalscoring seasons next to Marner, what do you think his impact on Debrincat and the rest of that core will be...
If you have access to the internet you can see various playoff games that Marner has taken over.
Your argument is confusing. On one hand you say that the Hawks had a good season and are close to playoff contention as soon as next year but the next you say that Marner's points will crash because there's no scoring talent on the Hawks outside of Debrincat. How can a team with 0 scoring talent outside of Debrincat and finished allowing the 7th most goals in the league last year be a playoff contender next season as is?
Either the Hawks forward talent is better than you give them credit for and Marner won't experience that much of a drop or the Hawks really are that bad offensively and keeping Kane for the next 2 seasons will basically be a waste. Pick one...
If you're going to pick Kane over Marner as a player, stick to facts and stats, throwing around phrases that hold no substance don't add any value.
Also, for that cap hit you keep referencing, Kane's current deal is only $3.6 million less than that for the next 2 years. What exactly do you expect to get with that? In today's NHL that's the rate for an average 3C or a bottom pairing D-man. And if the Hawks forwards are as bad as you say they are none of them should eat up the Hawks cap space following their RFA deals.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 19, 2021 at 4:27 p.m.
Thread:
New Leaf
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ChiHawk</b></div><div>First, you have to realize the Hawks and Leafs systems are very different. Leafs play a run and gun high powered offense, besides 2009/2010, the hawks played more of a 200 ft game. Kane also rarely played next to Toews and always playing with less then stellar centers. What Marner played next too his first 2 years, is what Kane has spent the majority of his career playing with.
Second, with the Hawks retaining $3.15M on Kane, and also taking on Marner's $11M a year cap hit, the net cap hit is $14.1M for Marner. That is the math until Kane's contract is up. That's way too much for the Hawks to take on and risk for Marner who you take away from Matthews and JT and his numbers will drop.
Lastly, the Hawks were almost a playoff team this season. They will be in the playoff hunt again next season and most fans see them competitive in 2 to 3 seasons as they were the youngest team in the NHL this season. Marner's contract is up in 4 seasons and he's a UFA. The timing and cap hit just don't work. Hawks aren't going to give up Kane, who is the face of the franchise and who loves Chicago and the organization, to take on risk and a huge cap cost for Marner. Kane also very likely decline.</div></div>
Marner has a ppg of 1.16 over the last 3 seasons, good for 95 points over an 82 game season, even if you think he's going to lose 10-15 points away from Matthews or Tavares, that's still a ppg winger on a team as you imply is devoid of offensive talent hence Marner's numbers dropping. If the Hawks young players actually having scoring talent then there's no reason for his numbers to drop if at all. Marner going into his 6th season isn't the same player as his first 2 seasons just like Kane in his 6th season wasn't the same player as his first 2.
For reference, Panarin at 26 (2 years older than Marner is now) put up 82 points in 81 games in his first season with the Jackets in a similar situation. . If you were to include Marner's full career, his career average is 83 points over an 82 game season which includes those 2 seasons with a 3C in Bozak and a 2C in Kadri.
For all you know Debrincat-Dach-Marner could end up being the best line in the league one day
The difference in systems that the two teams run can be countered by the fact that Kane received much more ice time than Marner in their early career due to Babcock being the Leafs coach. You can't score if you're not on the ice. Comparing Marner and Kane's first two seasons, Kane scored 12 more points than Marner however he played 361 more minutes over those first 2 seasons. In Marner's breakout 3rd season, he outscored Kane's 3rd year by 6 points however he also played 51 more minutes than Kane did in his 3rd season.
And we're comparing the young Leafs core to the Hawks young core so the up-tempo style those young Hawks teams played is fair game.
The Hawks would literally have nothing to lose, they trade their 32 year old superstar winger who will be a free agent by the time the Hawks are legit playoff contenders for a superstar winger nearly 10 years younger in line with their core signed for 4 years instead of Kane's 2. And if what you're saying about the Hawks being closer to playoff contention is true, then Marner will be integral for 4 years of that contention at the very least in his age 24-27 seasons vs Kane in his 33-34
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 19, 2021 at 1:14 p.m.
Thread:
New Leaf
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ChiHawk</b></div><div>Good analysis on Kane and spot on
That said, highly doubt Kane will waive and guessing it would only be for a couple teams and not a Canadian team.
<strong>Also doubt Hawks would trade him for Marner and take on that huge cap hit (plus another $3.15M in retention) and the risk that Marner is not nearly as good without being next to Matthews resulting in a very overpaid player; Marner becomes a $15M player in this case. Just too much risk versus having a elite player today who will age well and has proven he can as you articulated.</strong></div></div>
That deal would just reduce the Hawks cap space by $3.15M for the next two seasons where the Hawks aren't expecting to compete hence why trading Kane could be an option. By the time the Hawks could realistically make the playoffs Kane is likely at 35 year old UFA, Marner would be 25 & still have 2 years left on his current deal by that time when the cap is expected to jump significantly.
Regarding Marner however what you said is false, he put up 94 points in his 3rd season as a 21 year old with Tavares, he also had 9 points in 7 playoff games against the Bruins who later went on to lose the cup in 7 games that year. He spent his first two seasons with Bozak, Kadri and JVR (finished the 2nd half of his 2nd year ppg after playing with Kadri) and this past season was his first full one with Matthews. Duo's like Mackinnon-Rantanen or McDavid-Draisaitl have spent years together (Rantanen literally started his career next to Mackinnon).
In terms of a regular season player, Marner's first 5 NHL seasons has been more productive than Kane in the regular season (0.92ppg for Kane vs 1.01ppg for Marner, works out to an 8 point difference over 82-game pace). In the playoffs, Kane had 52 points in 51 games after 5 seasons, Marner has 25 points in 32 games which is why the Leafs would even bother with a deal with like this.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 19, 2021 at 12:17 p.m.
Thread:
New Leaf
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AMBA2007</b></div><div>first off, who goes to Seattle! second Kane for Marner makes no sense at all. why would the leafs trade a young superstar who was top 5 in scoring for an old and declining Kane? Dubas is way smarter than that</div></div>
1. Kane was on pace for 97 points (82-game pace) this season on a team where the 2nd leading scorer trailed Kane by 10 points and the 3rd leading scorer for the Hawks trailed him by 30 points. Marner was on pace for 100 points stapled next to the Rocket trophy winner who had a higher ppg than him. Not to mention Marner also has access to Tavares and Nylander on the powerplay which nobody on the current Hawks comes close to save for Debrincat.
2. Kane can do by himself what Marner needs Matthews or Tavares to do. Kane is the better hockey player in the regular season and in the playoffs it's not close. Hawks are retaining on Kane in that deal so the Leafs would have Kane at a shade over $7 million. Kane's game should age well especially in this era, MSL dominated well into his late 30's, Kane is only 32 now.
The last time Kane played with a line-mate the quality of Matthews or Tavares was when he had Panarin and he ended up sweeping the Art Ross, Hart and Lindsay trophy.
3. In that deal the Leafs get a player better than Marner but coming in around Nylander money saving them enough to sign a guy like Bonino/Goodrow/Foglino. You cheer for the team, not the player. Kane @ $7,350,000 + Bonino/Goodrow/Foglino makes the Leafs a lot better than just Marner alone.
4. Dermott goes to Seattle
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 19, 2021 at 10:50 a.m.
Thread:
New Leaf
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GrinReaper</b></div><div>Change the 2022 3rd to a 2023 3rd and Edmonton accepts</div></div>
Yeah that's fine
SalarySwish
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