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SweetRevenge19

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Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 21, 2021 at 10:52 p.m.
Thread: Mantha Holloway pt2
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BStinson</b></div><div>I’m just analyzing your argument to move Mo. You’ve mentioned Mo not fitting our rebuild timeline, then does Larkin or Bert? I even said Larkin probably stays because position scarcity and being named captain. You then mentioned Mo not being able to drive a second line but neither does Bert as he’s a complimentary piece. This post gets down to why you’re singling out Mo which is what I was after, you think he holds more value than Bert and you’d be willing to move Bert if a decent chunk of futures were offered at a later time. I see the argument and would consider shipping out both Bert and Mo as I believe a top 6 winger can be replaced much easier than a bonafide top 6 center or top 4 defense. I also see the value in bringing in those quality veterans in competing for spots to not accept a culture of losing and hopefully fostering winning habits in our youth pipeline. There isn’t a cookie cutter template for winning the Stanley Cup except for creating the most complete and efficient team by any means necessary and I’m sorry if my questions came off smug as I didn’t mean them too but rather wanted to really understand your rationale.

Larkin I don’t see as a Stanley Cup contending 1C unless he was surrounded by extremely dynamic wingers (eg Panarin, Kuch, etc). I see him as a defensively responsible 2C that can bandaid 1C duties if injured. It’s one reason I’m hesitant on Berniers this year in that I see him as a Larkin clone (not a bad thing) vs a Kent Johnson who isn’t as polished but has a that elite 1C upside.</div></div>

You’re fine man, always enjoy talking hockey with you and appreciate your points of view, didn’t think you were being smug.
I’m very concerned (have been since early last season) that Mantha’s career with Wings will continue to skate in circles, never hitting next level, continuing to be a very frustrating player not reaching potential, then completely diminish before we’re ever contending. He’s a Franzen clone (not a good thing). Franzen had his moments and was dominant at times, especially in the playoffs, but overall was incredibly frustrating player. I’m not a fan of players who don’t skate, win puck battles, or play defense/checking at consistent rates. When he’s not scoring, he’s adding little value to the team. Big guys get even slower at a higher rate as they age. Mantha’s skating won’t get better than it is now, and that’s a troubling scenario. Foot speed is everything in NHL. (Side note: I also think he came into this season heavier and out of shape, which is annoying, and he’s just recently getting back to being fit). There will be a point in time when people are looking at Mantha like they are looking at Neal now, and I don’t want the Wings to be sitting there holding their dick when that happens (for lack of better term). Jeff Carter could maybe be another example. Again, same thing happened to Franzen diminishing and being on albatross contract, even tho ppl will point to the concussions, that wasn’t the only factor. I think Yzerman knows it about big guys and is a big reason Mantha didn’t get anymore than 4 years. Will Mantha have some good to great seasons still before then?... yeah of course he will, especially if he’s in a better situation than Wings. I really think he’d be a great on Edmonton and a serious difference maker to win cup. But I also think he’s bound to drop off earlier than others and likely dramatically rather than gradual. Using an NFL analogy, it’s better to deal a player a year too early than a year too late. I’m terrified his trade value is going to keep trending down the older he gets and as teams around league become more and more familiar with the player he truly is vs perception being the power forward in his prime capable of 30 and 40 goals per year. The time to deal him is sooner than later. Yzerman is patient, he is calculated, it might take a while to find the right deal but I believe it will happen and I will be truly shocked if it doesn’t and Mantha plays out his full contact with the Wings. I understand it’s hard for Wings fans to grasp this vision because he’s currently good right now and dubbed our best player, so why get rid of our best player when we’re trying to get better. Like I say, it’s all about fielding the best possible team in 5 years and we’d be better with a 24 yr old Holloway and a 23yr old player picked with the 1st.

Yeah I like both Beniers and Johnson lots along with the LD prospects. I think the 2021 draft will give us great options at the top, lots of directions to go, can make a good case for a few players being the best, but nobody has truly separated themselves yet. It could really be a blessing if the draft is moved back an entire season after knowing our slot and the scouts continue scouting them thru their “draft plus 1 year” to see which of those kids separates themselves as the cream hopefully rises to top.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 21, 2021 at 8:50 p.m.
Thread: 1 for 1
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xqb15a</b></div><div>What a bad take? That a professional athlete wants to be some place he can win. That a 31yr old pro with 4 years left on his contract who has played in the playoffs twice and never won championship would value winning. What’s a preposterously bad take is he would want to “rebuild his value” over winning. His value is established at $5.85M in what is quite possibly his final contract. He isn’t playing for his next contract, do you really think he cares more about his “value” or being able to play for a championship and possibly being able to say for the rest of his life he was a Stanley Cup champion. Ridiculous.</div></div>

Hah yahhh calm down. Sure man I guess. Just figured he’d likely wave for any new situation since it seems he and the coach have beef and he’s likely lacking options at the moment. His contract value and his actual value are two different things. Don’t see how he’s going to contender unless he gets bought out, but I guess it’d be in a different bad contract swap.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 21, 2021 at 6:46 p.m.
Thread: Mantha Holloway pt2
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mikearky</b></div><div>There are problems with your ideas.

Teams in rebuild do not trade younger players for even younger unproven players and picks. In 3 years teams will want Holloway, if he is good, and they will say it helps the re uild.
Two no teams in a rebuild take in horrible cap contracts for nothing, even if they have the cap space. That is just not how it works. You want the Wi gs to take on Neal's contract for nothing. Why would Yzerman due that, you never answered that question? To even out the cap is not Wings problem, it is the Oilers probelm. If you want Wings to solve the problem you have to pay for that solution. Simple business equation.

I guess in short, rebuilding clubs have to set a line in the sand and then go from there. Yzerman has set the line and guys like Larkin, Bertuzzi Mantha, Hronek, Zadina and Seider are the building blocks. You build from there. We have already taken the 3 steps back and we can only go up from there, not back again. If they did they could lose the fan base.

Again I beleive Yzerman will continue to build the team thru the draft, cherry pick 1 and two contract players to fill gaps, until his draft picks are ready and then dig into the free agent pool. Until then his core will be ent as CT unless he gets a to good to be true offer. And I believe, contrary to you that this is not it.</div></div>

I don’t think you realize how bad this team is and just how big of a climb up it’s going to be. Mantha will be a dinosaur by then. You’re forgiven for not understanding rebuilds and how to expedite a rebuild since the Wings haven’t been in one in nearly four decades. I understand the deal is worse for the Wings right now, but the benefits in the future is why it’s worth it. You also didn’t even list all the actual building blocks... you just named the current best players plus Seider. It’s also clear you don’t know much about Holloway as a player. He is a Larkin clone who could end up being better. Plus getting another 1st round pick in a draft being labeled deep.
I’ll agree we disagree.
What needs added from Oilers in your opinion to make this a trade the Wings should make?
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 21, 2021 at 5:46 p.m.
Thread: Mantha Holloway pt2
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BStinson</b></div><div>Why hold onto Larkin or Bertuzzi when we can load up on futures then? Bert has one RFA year left and Larks has 3 years IIRC. My point is where do you draw the line? I can see the point in holding onto Larkin as he’s a center and captain but then Bertuzzi should be shipped off too.</div></div>

Don’t be ridiculous, you clearly know that’s not what I’m saying. Probably draw the line after Mantha. It’s not like Mantha has the elite work ethic of those other two to teach to young players. Larkin and Bert are better players. But Bert isn’t immune either if it’s the right deal and makes sense for the rebuild. But he’s not returning what Mantha could, that’s the whole point of it being Mantha.
And is Larkin a center? I’m definitely not sold. Sure he plays the position now and can be effective there, but a case could be made that his most dynamic offensive position is actually at wing and that he only plays center out of necessity. He certainly isn’t a shutdown defensive center in the Selke convo (yet?), doesn’t have the top end creative offensive mind as a puck dominating distributor. I see him eventually back at wing down the road a la Stamkos once we can find centers.. winning board battles, doing dirty work for two higher end skill guys, capitalizing on his speed and finishing abilities
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 21, 2021 at 4:33 p.m.
Thread: Mantha
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Grievous</b></div><div>I would not trade Holloway from an Oilers perspective.

I would go: Mantha + Glendening
For: Neal + Marody + Benson + Lavoie + 2022 1st

Lavoie likely needs time in the AHL, but Marody and Benson would probably crack the Red Wing line-up today.

Neals contract is easily bought out and Detroit with have a massive amount of cap room next year and will have a huge haul at this year's draft. This gives Stevie Y a chance to clear the decks and really put his stamp on the franchise moving forward.

I am not interested in moving Samorukov at this point for a rental.</div></div>

But Mantha is top of the lineup goal scoring power forward in his prime. Can’t see the Wings trading Mantha without a top prospect coming back. I understand the unwillingness to give up Holloway, but replacing him with 3 lesser prospects doesn’t make up the value.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 21, 2021 at 3:37 p.m.
Thread: Mantha Holloway pt2
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BStinson</b></div><div>Zadina has looked good but I don’t know if I label him a first line winger this season. He’s played 13 games this year with a stat line of 1 goal and 3 assists. He’s not a defensive liability which helps but usually you see more production out of a top line guy and I’m not saying he can’t turn into that but this year he hasn’t shown it.

Mantha weirdly enough is our second leading scorer behind Larkin but I agree for him to flourish he needs a true playmaking center (Larkin isn’t that).

Yes, Bertuzzi is effective on any line as that meat and potatoes type player but doesn’t make him a bonafide top line winger on a playoff team.

Raymond needs to recover from that elbow fracture and I’d wager he spends a little time in Grand Rapids before his debut.

Berggren will definitely need to adjust to NA and improve on his defensive deficiencies before NHL.

Everyone likes to point to getting a franchise center in 2022 but what are the odds? Even if you finish dead last you have a higher probability of picking 4th overall than 1-3 combined. </div></div>

Yah, the whole team can’t score, and we’re playing ultra conservative defensive tactics to give team competitive chance at winning. I’m not looking at Zadina’s counting stats this season to tell the story on his top of lineup projection. You’re just proving how far off Wings are and how early in the rebuild. I’m not expecting any of these players next year. Just said soon.. like, they are all top of lineup options on the way.
2022 has 4 top centers, not just one. We need to be in position to get one of the four, it’s not far fetched. Holding onto Mantha doesn’t make sense. Sell him before his trade value is completely cratered on this team.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 21, 2021 at 3:07 p.m.
Thread: Mantha Holloway pt2
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BStinson</b></div><div>“Adding future pieces to help rebuild faster should be the priority.” I take this as selling off signed contributing veterans (eg Mantha) for futures. Mantha honesty is our only true first line winger as Bertuzzi is more a second liner and Zadina is still learning. It’s the same philosophy to an extent Buffalo &amp; Edmonton did until a franchise/generational center and other multiple high draft picks have dragged them from the basement (well Edmonton at least).

Most high profile free agents re-sign with their team anyway and with Yzerman going after Hall I’d wager he’d take a hard look at Hamilton, Hall, Landeskog, RNH, Danault, etc. to see if maybe they’d entertain coming to Detroit. A closed mouth never gets fed and I’m sure our team would be more entertaining this year with Hall on it. Let’s say Hall signed with us instead of Buffalo, he helps improve our team by some more wins but not enough to take us out of a top 5-6 pick and then gets flipped at the TDL for a first +.</div></div>

Zadina is already proving himself top line and driving play better than Mo right now. Mantha is proving he can’t drive the the 2nd line by himself, he isn’t that type of player, his career needs McDavid or another skilled center feeding him pucks so he can be most effective. He’s being wasted. Selling him now fits our timeline and helps the rebuild by adding extra assets to fill out more holes. Which there are a lot. It’s taking one step back to take three steps forward. Bert is effective on any line. Raymond coming soon. Holloway ready soon. Veleno coming soon. Add Berggren to list if you like. Getting the franchise center in 2022 draft is imperative and a must have for this rebuild. I can see Danault, but he will want more term than I think Wings offer and it doesn’t really move the needle. And but Hall didn’t sign, and he’s unlikely to sign another 1year. Like you admit, Hall doesn’t move the needle for us yet, so it’s almost pointless, and unlikely anyways and takes us out of a top 3 pick in the most important draft in a decade. Just like hanging onto Mantha doesn’t make sense when we’re still so far off.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 21, 2021 at 2:10 p.m.
Thread: Mantha Holloway pt2
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BStinson</b></div><div>You do need quality vets though to shelter your prospects. You can’t just run a team of ELCs, that’s how you become Edmonton pre-McDavid or Buffalo pre-Eichel.


Why do you think Yzerman won’t go after any big FAs? It was rumored that he kicked the can on Hall this last off season.</div></div>

Bc it doesn’t make sense to add big free agents this far away from competing. And DEFINITELY not before getting a top pick for the 2022 draft. Stay awful one more year then add. Also the 2022 FA class has more higher end UFA’s than 2021, like Seth Jones, Forsberg, and Barkov for example... And more.. Couturier, Merzlikins, Korpisalo, Klingberg just way better FA class top to bottom, very deep. 2021 FA class is unimpressive. Teams should be looking ahead IMO. And 2023 is McKinnon, Ryan O’Reilly, Patrick Kane, Pastrnak, Huberdeau, Monahan, Dumba. Obvi some resign but some will test.

I never said don’t surround the kids with vets. Never suggested a team full of ELC’s. Yzerman will continue with the low end one and two year value deals like Nemeth, Merrill, Stecher, Ryan, Namestnikov and remaining flexible until the roster is in place and ready to spend on.
And we didn’t throw our kids right into the fire like Edmonton and Buffalo, so I disagree with the comparisons even.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 21, 2021 at 1:36 p.m.
Thread: Mantha Holloway pt2
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jfstompers</b></div><div>So I think a mantha for a 1st and Holloway is a good base to start. I'd even be open to taking turris since we're gonna need bodies in the bottom 6 next year. I'm not taking Neal though. That's just a no unless you kick in to move him.</div></div>

But they aren’t going after any big free agents this offseason, have a ton coming off the books, plus Neal’s contact offsets with Mantha. The following 2022 offseason I think they could attempt to go after free agents. At that point, they’d have another $10mil Nielsen and DeKeyser coming off books. They could even buy out the last year of Neal to save $3.75 if they wanted.
What you think needs added to make it fair? Maybe add a 2022 or 2023 3rd rd pick to Detroit?
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 21, 2021 at 10:11 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 21, 2021 at 9:49 a.m.
Thread: Henrique Holloway Dunn
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Timmah007</b></div><div>Oilers easily decline. Top prospect plus a first for a player have no need for?</div></div>

Don’t pretend Mantha wouldn’t be what the Oil have been looking for next to McDavid in a goal scoring power forward they hoped for in Lucic and Neal. He’d score 30 every year. Has 40 potential. Only 26 in his prime and cost controlled 4 years. And don’t ignore getting rid of dead weight Neal contract wouldn’t be great. Mantha is better than Josh Anderson who’s tearing it up now that he’s in a better situation. Mantha could be the player who solidifies the top 6 and takes them to next level in playoffs.
Trade could be a little off but I think it’s win win for both sides. Mantha is worth a 1st and a B prospect or an A prospect and a 2nd or 3rd. The pick gets bumped up to take on Neal. I added sweeteners that help for playoffs.